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As I wrote Sunday, the Cubs have to proceed carefully, if they really do intend to reel in Alex Bregman to close out their impressive offseason. They have just over $35 million in remaining wiggle room beneath the lowest threshold of the competitive-balance tax, which is one of two distinct hard ceilings under which Jed Hoyer has to fit his payroll budget for 2025. There's a budget figure he received from the Ricketts family, which is just as concrete but unknown to us, and there's the CBT threshold, which he will not be allowed to exceed this year after creeping to the wrong side of the line in 2024.
So, right now, the Cubs have a "creative, potentially unprecedented" contract offer out to Bregman, one source said. The deal is believed to be worth around $30 million annually over four years, with multiple opt-outs. Bregman could end up with the right to opt out after any of the first three seasons of the deal, and the structure of the contract would be similar to the one the Cubs signed with Cody Bellinger (another Boras client) last February. Bellinger's deal essentially guaranteed him $30 million for 2024, $30 million for 2025, and $20 million for 2026, with the right to opt out after either of the first two seasons, but some money sloshes from one year to the next in the form of buyouts paid only if he triggers either opt-out clause.
A Bregman deal would be similarly (though perhaps less starkly) front-loaded, in an effort to accommodate both his and Boras's desire that he exceeds the $31.35-million AAV Rafael Devers earned on the long extension he signed with the Red Sox in 2023 and the Cubs' need to stay under the CBT line. That could include a counter-option for the Cubs on one of the opt-outs, allowing them to void Bregman's option by extending him for an extra year or two—similar to the decision they'll have to make this fall about Shota Imanaga's oddly-structured deal.
It could also mean that the fourth year is not fully guaranteed, but a vesting option contingent on health or playing time, with a big chunk of the money in Year 3 (2027, the season that could be affected by a work stoppage anyway) pushed out to Year 4 and divided into a guaranteed buyout and a hefty vesting value. One way or another, there's likely to be a wrinkle. That's because, if Bregman makes (say) $34 million in 2025 and then opts out, it could push the Cubs over the luxury tax line at the last moment, by changing whatever his AAV would be over four years to that higher number.
Astros GM Dana Brown referred to Bregman's time with the team in the past tense at a media luncheon Tuesday, sparking some speculation that Houston no longer expects Bregman to return. It's his long-time team that we know to have already offered Bregman a six-year deal, but if he wanted the one they offered, he'd already have re-signed with them. It's not clear whether the offer they made weeks or months ago is even still on the table.
Does that mean the Cubs are more prominent in the bidding for Bregman than previously thought? Not necessarily, but it's interesting. So, too, is the news that the Red Sox and Cardinals have re-engaged about a potential Nolan Arenado trade.
It's increasingly clear that no seven-year offer is forthcoming for Bregman. Even if it's true that he's received multiple six-year deals, seeing any such long-term deal rise to meet his asking price at this stage of the offseason is highly unlikely. The Cubs' offer is "a push," one source said, and the question is whether it will be a strong enough one to sell Bregman on reuniting with Astros teammates Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly—and adding a capstone to a roster already projected as the comfortable division favorite.
In almost any scenario, this deal would put the Cubs perilously close to the luxury-tax line. A signing, then, would make it much less likely that the team acquires another veteran reliever, unless it be someone they like on a deal worth less than $5 million. It would also prompt another round of rumors about trading Nico Hoerner, another topic I touched upon Sunday. Hoerner and his $11.67-million CBT number would be easy enough to move, but the Cubs probably wouldn't get as much for him in this scenario as they might have if they'd been more set on moving him in the early stages of the winter. They wouldn't necessarily have to trade Hoerner immediately, though. If they kept other expenses to a minimum, and assuming this potential deal is structured loosely with the CBT line for 2025 in mind, Chicago could go into the season with all of Hoerner, Bregman and Matt Shaw in the mix, likely asking Shaw to start the season at Triple-A Iowa, and then trade Hoerner in July.
We're getting ahead of ourselves. While the team has made a substantial offer, they're by no means at the finish line with Bregman. They do seem to have waited out his market well, though, in the sense that the decorated veteran is more open now to the kind of deal the Cubs were always willing to entertain than he was when they first began checking in. They value Bregman as a clearly middle-of-the-order bat (even after he showed signs of decline in the first half of 2024), a more experienced third baseman than Shaw, and a clubhouse presence. As much as they want to commit to young players (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Miguel Amaya are already written into the Opening Day lineup, albeit in pencil, and they would not have made the Isaac Paredes-for-Tucker trade if they didn't at least believe in Shaw as a long-term option at third), the team also sees Bregman as a clear upgrade over either Shaw or Hoerner.
Hoyer is trying to complete a lineup that would be different than that of the Dodgers, but not much less productive, overall—and is, yet again, trying some unusual things to get there. This deal could be wildly player-friendly, stretching a now-familiar but risky structure to a new extreme. However, it could also out the Cubs over the top, if it comes together in just the right form and they can create whatever other flexibility they require.
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