Has Nico Hoerner Figured Things Out in a Resurgent Second Half?

Nico Hoerner 1st half: 98 wRC+

Nico Hoerner 2nd half: 99 wRC+

Nico Hoerner 1st half xwOBA: .316

Nico Hoerner 2nd half xwOBA: .310

He was walking more in the 1st half and has had a bit more BABIP in the 2nd, but he's the same guy with some normal ebbs and flows of his peripherals.

To me he's basically Theriot. His bread and butter is the line drive to RF and everyone knows he is hunting that outside pitch to punch through. Most teams aren't scared of it and they invite him to try without trepidation. A lot of those BIP have found gloves this year. The power is never gonna come. Power comes with intent and Nico doesn't intend to do damage. It would be great if he could get more doubles down the LF line. 

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

To me he's basically Theriot. His bread and butter is the line drive to RF and everyone knows he is hunting that outside pitch to punch through. Most teams aren't scared of it and they invite him to try without trepidation. A lot of those BIP have found gloves this year. The power is never gonna come. Power comes with intent and Nico doesn't intend to do damage. It would be great if he could get more doubles down the LF line. 

 

 

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

Approach-wise they are the same hitter. Scrappy guys trying to punch it to RF half the time because they have no ability to lift and pull.

37 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

Leaguewide strikeout rate is also WAY higher now.  22.5% this year 17.5% in 2008.  Having a slap hitter with a 10% K rate is now a refreshing change of pace.

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Approach-wise they are the same hitter. Scrappy guys trying to punch it to RF half the time because they have no ability to lift and pull.

Sure. Just clarifying that late 2000s Ryan Theriot was an average player, and early 2020s Nico Hoerner is a Good player.

So how does a guy like Nico improve?  Can he do it without adding power - a la Tony Gwynn, and all those famous singles hitters of yesteryear?

13 hours ago, PVG said:

So how does a guy like Nico improve?  Can he do it without adding power - a la Tony Gwynn, and all those famous singles hitters of yesteryear?

Reduce the chase and be more selective in the zone and take more walks. I also feel like sometimes he almost jumps when he swings and it's probably hard to hit a ball that hard when your feet arent sound. A steeper bat path and more intent behind his swings on meatballs would probably produce a better ISO but would also result in a lot of can-of-corn flyballs, affecting his BA. I don't know, I feel like he's too well-built a dude to have such weak contact, though. 

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Reduce the chase and be more selective in the zone and take more walks. I also feel like sometimes he almost jumps when he swings and it's probably hard to hit a ball that hard when your feet arent sound. A steeper bat path and more intent behind his swings on meatballs would probably produce a better ISO but would also result in a lot of can-of-corn flyballs, affecting his BA. I don't know, I feel like he's too well-built a dude to have such weak contact, though. 

 

 

Yes, he's front-footing his swing, and his power is sapped even though he has better-than-average bat speed. It's fixable, but it would take a concerted effort. 

The honest answer is there probably isn't a path forward.  The raw juice is in there for more power, but to get to it consistently probably requires a commensurate drop in contact.  And even if he does figure out a better balance the defense will start sliding soon.

That said he's a 4 WAR guy give or take a little bit each season depending on how generous the BABIP gods are.  I probably wouldn't extend him a second time but we should all be extremely happy to have him through his current contract.