Cubs Fans Adore Ben Brown's Upside. Are They Overlooking His Downsides?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The huge right-handed hurler made some big noise in his rookie season, only to have it end with a neck issue that the team struggled to diagnose or treat. Now a fan favorite (but also a potential trade chip), he enters 2025 in a weird predicament.

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

If they keep him, the 2025 Chicago Cubs face a fascinating and fun dilemma with Ben Brown. He's demonstrated a certain capacity for dominating opposing hitters in the big leagues, and after walks were a problem for him in Triple A, he kept them under control in the big leagues. Yet, his relative fragility has become clear over the two and a half seasons he's spent in the Cubs organization, and he also has just two pitches: a riding four-seam fastball and a sharp, biting curveball. The question is whether he's capable of being the mid-rotation starter he looked like in his brief stint in for them in that role last year, or whether he belongs in the bullpen.

Life as a two-pitch starter is not easy. Brown's own teammate, Justin Steele, has sort of proved that it's still possible, with his cutting fastball and good slider, but even he has steadily increased his usage of the changeup, curveball, and sinker of late. Besides, he's able to get away with a slimmer repertoire partially because his fastball shape baffles hitters. Using Max Bay's Dynamic Dead Zone app, consider what hitters expect Steele's fastball to do based on his arm slot (the blue gradient topographical field in the background), compared to what his heater actually does.

Even if hitters mentally force themselves to sit cutter and look for that pitch instead of expecting any kind of average fastball, Steele's rides considerably more than they'll anticipate. Familiarity helps all hitters against all pitchers, but it can't fully erode the value of having a fastball with this kind of funk.

Brown, by contrast, has a fastball shape you can't help but call vanilla. His slender 6-foot-6 frame could create deception or tough angles for hitters in either of a couple ways, be it a high overhand slot and steep downward plane or a low slot yielding an extreme release point and a flat, carrying shape as the ball enters the hitting zone. Brown, however, has a standard three-quarters arm angle, and his fastball moves exactly the way the hitter expects it to, given that.

Now, he has compensation for that that Steele would not have, if he didn't possess his naturally nasty shape. Brown's extension down the mound at release is tremendous, which makes his plus velocity play up even more. His perceived fastball velocity, for opposing hitters, was 97.2 miles per hour in 2024, good for 24th of the 152 hurlers who threw at least 500 four-seamers. He can overpower hitters at a fair rate, despite the lack of a unique or helpful fastball shape.

His curveball plays gorgeously off that pitch, too, in a way. It's a unique offering, with good-not-great spin rates and an imperfect match to the fastball in terms of spin axis out of the hand. However, because the pitch has more gyro action than most curveballs, it dives more than its spin axis would suggest, so sometimes, even hitters who recognize the pitch struggle to hit it. It's that nasty.

Hitters whiffed on that curve on a whopping 51% of their swings against it in 2024. That gives Brown huge upside; it's how he struck out 28.8% of opposing batters. It's the kind of wrinkle that will get a lot more hittable when it becomes familiar to hitters, be it the second time in a game or the second start in a season in which they face him.

Maybe the Cubs have an interesting, creative plan to give Brown a more viable third pitch in 2025. Tyler Zombro, the Tread Athletics performance specialist who now also works as a special assistant for the Cubs, is famous for helping pitchers find new offerings that suit their motor preferences and skill sets. Brown did toy with a changeup as a rookie, although it didn't look promising. Right now, he's prone to giving up hard contact, especially if kept in a starting role.

So, should the Cubs keep him at Iowa come the regular season, to hone his stuff and deepen his arsenal as a starter? In that case, he'd surely be the first call if and when someone gets hurt. Or does he have more value in the bullpen, where he'd make a strong case to slot right into the mix on Opening Day?

For my money, Brown is a reliever, which makes him a tricky fit into the 2025 plans. After all, the Cubs are heavily rumored to be pursuing a reliever to add to their existing pen already, and that mystery man would be joining a corps of Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan, Julian Merryweather, and many more. That's just the logistical side of things. We should also consider the added risk of injury that often comes with a move to relief, for a pitcher with Brown's delivery and his health record. Thus, the best move the Cubs could make this offseason might be to trade Brown.

Somewhere in the league, there is a team who would be happy to take on Brown and his six remaining seasons of team control, and try to draw the starter out of him. In fact, they'd so enjoy that project that they would give up something pretty good to get him—or at least, they would be happy to have him headline a package of talent from the Cubs in exchange for a player with a clearer path to having a big impact on the 2025 Cubs. Although fans are understandably attached to a player who threw seven no-hit innings and struck out 10 against the hated Brewers mere months ago, in the big picture, Brown can best help the Cubs by being included in a deal for someone more complete and more reliable.

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[SB in SC]

I agree that for 2025 he has to be a reliever.  He only pitched 55 innings last year.  Keep him in the back of the bullpen and let him pitch multiple innings in his outings.  I am hoping that either he or Horton can be a big part of the bullpen at the end of the year.  After Brown proves he can stay healthy and pitches more innings then consider moving him to the rotation in 2027 if ever.  

[Tryptamine]

This is a weird take. I think most of us have already accepted that he's destined for the pen and that being a long term starter is the overwhelmingly most unlikely scenario.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This is a weird take. I think most of us have already accepted that he's destined for the pen and that being a long term starter is the overwhelmingly most unlikely scenario.

Us? Maybe. Cub fandom in general? Less so. 

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Us? Maybe. Cub fandom in general? Less so. 

But it's not an article for the masses, it's an article for us, which makes it a bit weird. If we're addressing the meathead common fan opinion then they could write a million different hot take articles which would make NSBB completely intolerable. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

But it's not an article for the masses, it's an article for us, which makes it a bit weird. If we're addressing the meathead common fan opinion then they could write a million different hot take articles which would make NSBB completely intolerable. 

Well, I would say that the goal of writing front page news here is to draw in both you and I, but also grow the website to new readers and the like. As someone who writes for NSBB myself, that's certainly my goal. I love it when ya'll interact but I hope others find it, too. 

So while you and I probably understand Brown's limitations, many people who may find the website may not. I'd much rather read Matt break down the shape of Browns' fastball than write meatball takes, even if I kind of agree that Brown probably isn't a rotational option in 2025. And I'd also hope people who like this kind of breakdown are the folks who find us and join in talking Cubs baseball.

[Bertz]

Sample sizes are obviously tiny, but Brown didn't have a TTO penalty last year.  He also only faced three teams twice: two of those he pitched a strong game the second time and the 3rd, against the Reds, was his last game before his season ending injury (so it buddies the causation). 

I'm not going to make major declarations off of 55 innings, but I don't think we've seen anything from a performance standpoint that says he can't be a SP.  If you want to throw in the towel early off of durability that's fine, but also IMO feels premature.

The other thing is that he is CLEARLY our best young pitchers on a per inning basis right now.  It's not close.  Given the number of young SPs the Cubs have, and the Cubs market status allowing them to pay market rate for guys like Taillon and Boyd, you have to prioritize the potential star power of Brown (and Horton) when considering some sort of assett consolidation deal.  Even if Brown and Assad for instance have the same expected value, a team in the Cubs' position should prioritize Brown's vastly superior 80th+ percentile outcomes.

[Candesious]

I feel 1 more season in AAA good hard if early call up ( injurys ect) and then possibly fall call up if warranted he will benefit from instruction in AAA as well as confidence from injury recover  no reason to force a rush Cubs did great job last few years on focusing Pitching for farm system feel they have grasp on what to do  

[Candesious]

On 1/30/2025 at 9:39 AM, Tryptamine said:

This is a weird take. I think most of us have already accepted that he's destined for the pen and that being a long term starter is the overwhelmingly most unlikely scenario.

Dont feel hes destined pen at all some good AAA playing time this season should for sure show his destination confidence and recovering from injury will be his key love to see him get play time in AAA for sure

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Candesious said:

I feel 1 more season in AAA good hard if early call up ( injurys ect) and then possibly fall call up if warranted he will benefit from instruction in AAA as well as confidence from injury recover  no reason to force a rush Cubs did great job last few years on focusing Pitching for farm system feel they have grasp on what to do  

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