Cubs Fans Adore Ben Brown's Upside. Are They Overlooking His Downsides?

If they keep him, the 2025 Chicago Cubs face a fascinating and fun dilemma with Ben Brown. He's demonstrated a certain capacity for dominating opposing hitters in the big leagues, and after walks were a problem for him in Triple A, he kept them under control in the big leagues. Yet, his relative fragility has become clear over the two and a half seasons he's spent in the Cubs organization, and he also has just two pitches: a riding four-seam fastball and a sharp, biting curveball. The question is whether he's capable of being the mid-rotation starter he looked like in his brief stint in for them in that role last year, or whether he belongs in the bullpen.

Life as a two-pitch starter is not easy. Brown's own teammate, Justin Steele, has sort of proved that it's still possible, with his cutting fastball and good slider, but even he has steadily increased his usage of the changeup, curveball, and sinker of late. Besides, he's able to get away with a slimmer repertoire partially because his fastball shape baffles hitters. Using Max Bay's Dynamic Dead Zone app, consider what hitters expect Steele's fastball to do based on his arm slot (the blue gradient topographical field in the background), compared to what his heater actually does.

Even if hitters mentally force themselves to sit cutter and look for that pitch instead of expecting any kind of average fastball, Steele's rides considerably more than they'll anticipate. Familiarity helps all hitters against all pitchers, but it can't fully erode the value of having a fastball with this kind of funk.

Brown, by contrast, has a fastball shape you can't help but call vanilla. His slender 6-foot-6 frame could create deception or tough angles for hitters in either of a couple ways, be it a high overhand slot and steep downward plane or a low slot yielding an extreme release point and a flat, carrying shape as the ball enters the hitting zone. Brown, however, has a standard three-quarters arm angle, and his fastball moves exactly the way the hitter expects it to, given that.

Now, he has compensation for that that Steele would not have, if he didn't possess his naturally nasty shape. Brown's extension down the mound at release is tremendous, which makes his plus velocity play up even more. His perceived fastball velocity, for opposing hitters, was 97.2 miles per hour in 2024, good for 24th of the 152 hurlers who threw at least 500 four-seamers. He can overpower hitters at a fair rate, despite the lack of a unique or helpful fastball shape.

His curveball plays gorgeously off that pitch, too, in a way. It's a unique offering, with good-not-great spin rates and an imperfect match to the fastball in terms of spin axis out of the hand. However, because the pitch has more gyro action than most curveballs, it dives more than its spin axis would suggest, so sometimes, even hitters who recognize the pitch struggle to hit it. It's that nasty.

Hitters whiffed on that curve on a whopping 51% of their swings against it in 2024. That gives Brown huge upside; it's how he struck out 28.8% of opposing batters. It's the kind of wrinkle that will get a lot more hittable when it becomes familiar to hitters, be it the second time in a game or the second start in a season in which they face him.

Maybe the Cubs have an interesting, creative plan to give Brown a more viable third pitch in 2025. Tyler Zombro, the Tread Athletics performance specialist who now also works as a special assistant for the Cubs, is famous for helping pitchers find new offerings that suit their motor preferences and skill sets. Brown did toy with a changeup as a rookie, although it didn't look promising. Right now, he's prone to giving up hard contact, especially if kept in a starting role.

So, should the Cubs keep him at Iowa come the regular season, to hone his stuff and deepen his arsenal as a starter? In that case, he'd surely be the first call if and when someone gets hurt. Or does he have more value in the bullpen, where he'd make a strong case to slot right into the mix on Opening Day?

For my money, Brown is a reliever, which makes him a tricky fit into the 2025 plans. After all, the Cubs are heavily rumored to be pursuing a reliever to add to their existing pen already, and that mystery man would be joining a corps of Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan, Julian Merryweather, and many more. That's just the logistical side of things. We should also consider the added risk of injury that often comes with a move to relief, for a pitcher with Brown's delivery and his health record. Thus, the best move the Cubs could make this offseason might be to trade Brown.

Somewhere in the league, there is a team who would be happy to take on Brown and his six remaining seasons of team control, and try to draw the starter out of him. In fact, they'd so enjoy that project that they would give up something pretty good to get him—or at least, they would be happy to have him headline a package of talent from the Cubs in exchange for a player with a clearer path to having a big impact on the 2025 Cubs. Although fans are understandably attached to a player who threw seven no-hit innings and struck out 10 against the hated Brewers mere months ago, in the big picture, Brown can best help the Cubs by being included in a deal for someone more complete and more reliable.