Padres Could Be a One-Stop Shop Option for Cubs' Biggest Remaining Needs

[Matthew Trueblood]

The San Diego Padres are in a tough predicament. The Cubs are well-positioned to help them escape it, while also checking the last two boxes on their essential winter shopping list.

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Entering 2025, the Cubs have plenty of money. It feels almost like all they have is money. They're roughly $40 million shy of where they intend to be, payroll-wise, to open 2025, and the problem they face is that the number of good ways to spend that much money on the free-agent market is dwindling—although it was never their preference to dive deeply into that pool, anyway.

This offseason has already seen the team acquire the linchpin bat they needed, in Kyle Tucker, and bolster both the starting rotation (Matthew Boyd) and the bullpen (Eli Morgan, Caleb Thielbar), all without trading any of their closest-to-the-majors prospects. They still need a relief ace and a frontline starting pitcher, though, and those things are grossly expensive in free agency—not only in terms of dollars, but in the number of years of guaranteed money key players are seeking.

For weeks now, in ruminating on this dilemma, I've circled back to one team as the most promising way for Jed Hoyer and company to resolve this dilemma: the San Diego Padres. With help from perspicacious Padres skeeter Will Holder, I think I've finally pinned down the best way for these two teams to assist one another.

The Padres, in short, are in a pickle. We knew that. After the death of owner Peter Seidler, the gravy train stopped (or at least slowed), but the franchise was already committed to several players on large, long-term contracts, and those obligations remain despite the team's reinstated spending constraints. While the Cubs face a stiff enough challenge (adding substantial talent without overpaying, in a market beginning to thin out), they have money to spend. Imagine if they were even further from done with their shopping, and had to cut costs, too.

Will continued:

The fit here is compelling, isn't it? The deal would look something like this:

CUBS RECEIVE:

• RHP Dylan Cease
• RHP Robert Suarez

PADRES RECEIVE:

• OF Owen Caissie
• RHP Ben Brown
• RHP Javier Assad or LHP Jordan Wicks

This deal would make the Cubs about $24 million more expensive in 2025, and it would push in even more of the organization's chips on the success of this season. Cease will become a free agent after the campaign, one for which he'll be paid roughly $14 million in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Cubs could try to sign him to an extension, of course, but as with Tucker, the chances of that feel slim. With another season similar to the one he just put up in San Diego, he'd be in line for an extremely lucrative free agency, probably topping $200 million in guaranteed money. Suarez, meanwhile, will make $10 million as a base salary, with incentives likely to push that figure to anywhere from $11-13 million if he serves as the primary closer—a likely outcome. After the season, he has a two-year, $16-million player option, so if he pitches well, he's likely to become a free agent, and if he gets hurt or goes off the rails, he's likely to be a long-term budget item with limited utility.

That's the bad news. The good news in this deal would be that Cease and Suarez would make the Cubs clear-cut NL Central favorites and a fairly imposing playoff opponent even for the Mets, Dodgers, and Phillies. With Cease at the front of their rotation, the team shouldn't miss Brown and either Assad or Wicks much, with whichever of the latter two they keep waiting alongside Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell to reinforce a rotation of Cease, Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd. Suarez has a 2.89 career ERA, and while his strikeout rates don't sparkle, he's shown good command and he throws 100 miles per hour. His stuff should limit hard contact a bit better than it actually does, and the Cubs are good at helping relievers make that particular improvement. He'd slot in as their relief ace, pushing Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson and the rest of the team's relievers into roles for which they're better suited.

Meanwhile, the Padres would shed all that money, nab their much-needed left fielder and collect long-term control of two solid arms, even if there's reliever risk attached to Brown and a lowish ceiling on Assad and Wicks. They'd gain the flexibility they need to round out an offseason that would keep them in the thick of playoff contention. It's not the absolute most they could get for Cease, but Suarez's contract—not just the high salary for one year, but the poisoned pill of that two-year option that makes it highly player-friendly—would be hard to move for value in its own trade. In this one, his inclusion would give the Padres the leverage to push for a low-level fourth piece, or to try to demand Kevin Alcántara instead of Caissie, if they're so inclined.

It's unlikely that this exact trade comes to fruition, of course—as unlikely as pointing due south by gazing at the horizon, without the aid of a compass. That's how guessing at offseason moves goes. We're using the information we have to get ourselves pointed in the right direction, knowing full well that we can't be precise without more and better data. Right now, what I can say with confidence is that the Cubs have money to spend and need to find the best way to use it, and that the Padres have money to move and need to get a lot of value out of moving it. That makes the two teams good trade partners, even in the specific shape of the right transaction is hard for us to pin down.

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[davelutter57]

In no scenario am I parting with Ben Brown or Owen Caissie. Tucker is one and done, so ONKC is next year's RF, and Brown is going to be a stud for us. 

[Bertz]

I'm curious what about the Padres' plans change based on the Sasaki decision.  Like does landing Sasaki make a Cease trade more likely because you feel like you've backfilled his star power and can settle for improving depth?  Or does it make it less likely because you've filled your biggest need for league minimum, so suddenly dumpster diving for e.g. a LFer (run it back with Peralta?) doesn't feel as bad?  I think you can logic it either direction if they miss too.

But yeah I agree a Dylan Cease trade feels kind of perfect from the Cubs' end.  I actually like that he's in his walk year.  In addition to keeping costs manageable, it feels like having the option to pivot to Cease if you fail to extend Tucker has value.  And of course replacing Assad in the rotation with Cease is a massive massive upgrade.  Like you say the Cubs would be heavy favorites in the Central and probably have an argument for being as good as any non-Dodger team.

[Development DL]

I see both sides of this type of transaction. 
Something I have taken from reading Mr Trueblood . Is to expand my view of what a successful trade can look like . 
 

I would love every Cub trade to look like the fantasy transactions   I came up with in the losing 70’s lol . 
 

I love the creative process , stimulated by this sites content and comments . 

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious what about the Padres' plans change based on the Sasaki decision.  Like does landing Sasaki make a Cease trade more likely because you feel like you've backfilled his star power and can settle for improving depth?  Or does it make it less likely because you've filled your biggest need for league minimum, so suddenly dumpster diving for e.g. a LFer (run it back with Peralta?) doesn't feel as bad?  I think you can logic it either direction if they miss too.

But yeah I agree a Dylan Cease trade feels kind of perfect from the Cubs' end.  I actually like that he's in his walk year.  In addition to keeping costs manageable, it feels like having the option to pivot to Cease if you fail to extend Tucker has value.  And of course replacing Assad in the rotation with Cease is a massive massive upgrade.  Like you say the Cubs would be heavy favorites in the Central and probably have an argument for being as good as any non-Dodger team.

I think Will meant that Sasaki makes a big difference in the overall vibe and valence of a Padres offseason, the way @TomtheBombadil keeps encouraging us all to remember that he does for the Cubs, too—rather than that signing him would radically change the rest of their plans. In their case, because they do have to move money and an SP happens to be the most obvious way they could do so, getting a high-quality SP at a low price would be especially helpful, perhaps, but I think it's more in a holistic, long-term sense than in a specific direction-influencing one for the immediate future.

[Statyllus]

Cubs have traded Cam Smith along with controllable major league players to Astros for a very good rental player that they don’t seem likely to sign to a long term contract and this trade would be in the same vein of “win now” but the scope is franchise transformative.  Hoyer’s strategy aside, I doubt he would be able to pull off a trade of this scope in competition with other teams that might covet Dylan Cease. Hoyer has no historical trades in his transaction portfolio that come anywhere near the scope and impact of this trade. Signing Jack Flaherty to a 2 yr deal seems more Hoyer-like. Marginal improvement with the hope of overachievement, limited expenditures of controllable talent, low risk short term FA contract. Win small/fail small

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 1/2/2025 at 8:58 AM, davelutter57 said:

In no scenario am I parting with Ben Brown or Owen Caissie. Tucker is one and done, so ONKC is next year's RF, and Brown is going to be a stud for us. 

Welcome to NSBB! I've grown attached to Caissie, I'd also hate to see him gone.

[mul21]

It's amazing how all these new folks are 100% certain they know exactly what the Cubs plans are.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It's amazing how all these new folks are 100% certain they know exactly what the Cubs plans are.

It's easy just ask Google Gemini

[Tim]

46 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's easy just ask Google Gemini

The Cubs need to address several key areas to improve their chances of contending in 2025. Here's a breakdown of their priorities:
 * Reinforce the Rotation:
   * Target: A top-tier starting pitcher.
   * Why: While the Cubs have promising young arms, adding a proven ace or a high-impact #2 starter would significantly bolster their rotation.
   * Potential Targets:  Depending on availability and price, consider pitchers like:
     * Shohei Ohtani (if he's available): A generational talent, but incredibly expensive.
     * Lucas Giolito: A strong mid-rotation option with upside.
     * Blake Snell: An electric but sometimes inconsistent pitcher.
 * Bolster the Bullpen:
   * Target: High-leverage relievers.
   * Why:  The bullpen was a major weakness in 2024. They need reliable arms for high-pressure situations.
   * Potential Targets: Look for experienced closers or setup men with strong track records.
 * Consider Offensive Upgrades:
   * Target: A power hitter or a consistent run producer.
   * Why: While the Cubs have some offensive potential, adding another impact bat could make their lineup more potent.
   * Potential Targets: Explore options like:
     * Shohei Ohtani (if he's available): Provides both hitting and pitching power.
     * J.D. Martinez: A veteran slugger with a proven track record.
     * Trade options: Explore potential trades for impact hitters.
 * Address Catching Depth:
   * Target: A reliable backup catcher or a potential upgrade at the starting position.
   * Why:  Catching depth is crucial for any successful team.
Important Considerations:
 * Budget: The Cubs have the financial flexibility to make significant moves.
 * Prospects: Integrate top prospects into the major league roster when they're ready.
 * Long-term vision: Build a sustainable winning culture for years to come.
Disclaimer: This is just one possible approach. The actual moves the Cubs make will depend on various factors, including player availability, market conditions, and the team's overall strategic goals.
I hope this analysis helps!
 

[Tim]

I feel like Gemini may not have the answers

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Tim said:

* Potential Targets: Explore options like:
     * Shohei Ohtani (if he's available): Provides both hitting and pitching power.

Can't hurt to ask!

[Bertz]

55 minutes ago, Tunzi said:

The Cubs have made the worst trades in Baseball history sure there were some good ones but for the most part for the last say 100 years i can count on my 2 hands the best ones i need a calculator to count the worst ones including the worst trade in Baseball history Lou Brock for the great Ernie Broglio .

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 hours ago, Tunzi said:

It's amazing how all these new folks are 100% certain they know exactly what the Cubs plans are.                   Its really not that amazing  when you use the same playbook for many years the fans know all the moves .

You literally registered 2 weeks ago. Are you calling these posters new fans? You dont know jack about anyone here and just because you were around to witness a trade 60 years ago doesnt give you any more cred. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:46 PM, Tunzi said:

Are you calling these posters new fans? ...... Never said that .i will say this it is  Amazing to me how many people put words in other people's mouths .2 weeks 2 years 2 decades that don't mean s.... to anyone who views and opinion .

So who the hell are the new folks... .besides you?

[We Got The Whole 9]

You can't read your own posts. So I guess we identified the problem.

 

It's amazing how all these new folks are 100% certain they know exactly what the Cubs plans are.                   Its really not that amazing  when you use the same playbook for many years the fans know all the moves .

[SOFNR]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

You can't read your own posts. So I guess we identified the problem.

 

It's amazing how all these new folks are 100% certain they know exactly what the Cubs plans are.                   Its really not that amazing  when you use the same playbook for many years the fans know all the moves .

He was trying to quote another poster, but he doesn't know how to use the quote function.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Tunzi said:

here is the quote function thought you could figure it out since its all on one page..

If you used the quote function correctly it would not be so confusing.