What Would Garrett Crochet Cost the Cubs—and Would He Be Worth It?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Reported;y, the Cubs are a "viable" destination for one of the sport's best starting pitchers. But he wouldn't come cheap.

Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

All offseason, close observers have been keenly aware that Garrett Crochet is going to be traded this winter. The chances that he remains in the White Sox organization come Opening Day are somewhere south of 10 percent. Most Cubs fans have also been vaguely aware of the fact that the North Side is a plausible landing spot for the current pride of the South Side club, since the Ricketts family seems disinclined to spend big money to catch up to the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Phillies in terms of spending like legitimate big-market powerhouses. 

Now, however, the Winter Meetings are a mere few days away, and the trade market is beginning to percolate in earnest. Wednesday morning, albeit in vague and very on-brand form, Jon Morosi of MLB Network and FOX Sports brought that background notion rushing into the foreground.

By no accident, this is a tweet short on specifics. Morosi, one of the most well-liked people in baseball media, is nonetheless something shy of a true news-breaking titan. He's prone to tweets like these, which include no new reportage (notice that he doesn't indicate having been told this by any particular source or having new information, per see) and trade on the automatic credence lent to everything he says by virtue of his role with two of the major news and coverage outlets attached to the league. This tweet shouldn't make you materially more confident or expectant of the Cubs being involved in Crochet trade negotiations, and while it tacitly invites you to imagine a bidding war between the Cubs and a divisional rival for the services of an elite White Sox southpaw (something we have seen before, after all!), I would advise against indulging that imagination, too.

In this case, though, the seemingly unprompted update is still helpful in a small way: it makes more salient a consideration that probably already belonged near the front of our consciousness. The Cubs are definitely interested in Crochet—enamored of him, even, according to two sources in other front offices—and they have the MLB-ready, high-upside young position players the White Sox want in a trade. With Matthew Boyd providing expensive but potentially strong depth at the back end of the rotation, the Cubs are now poised to add an elite starter at the other end of it—but need to do so on a cost-effective basis. Crochet checks the boxes.

What stands out most with Crochet is that, while he had a very fastball-forward approach last year, he has a deep arsenal that allows him to dominate hitters regardless of handedness or skill set. He didn't lean on one out pitch to rack up strikeouts in 2024; he has four pitches that all miss bats at a rate well above average. 

Crochet's fastball shape isn't that distinctly cut-ride option the Cubs prefer, but he more than makes up for it. His four-seamer sits 97 and touches 100, even as a starter, and his cutter and sweeper work off it gorgeously. His changeup plays off the heat and the cutter nicely, too. He even has a sinker he threw enough to force hitters to think about it last year.

Pitch Type	High%	InZone%	Miss%	Vel	HorzBrk	IndVertBrk
Fastball (4S)	49.0%	59.4%	31.4%	97.2	-7.9	15.2
Cutter	22.5%	53.2%	33.2%	91.6	3.7	5.7
Sweeper	17.1%	44.0%	42.7%	84.2	14.2	-0.5
Change	11.3%	25.4%	33.9%	91.0	-15.5	8.8
Fastball (2S) / Sinker	40.0%	44.0%	32.1%	97.9	-15.2	7.8

The wildest reality with Crochet is that he might yet have another level to reach. His ability to throw strikes with the cutter and even the sweeper could allow him to rely less on his fastball, and that pitch itself could be better-located, just by reorienting his approach to be more focused on attacking the top of the zone. Throwing fewer heaters, in particular, could resolve the slight home-run problem Crochet had against righties last year.

Crochet does have a bit of a dead zone fastball, so his success with it depends on command and that overpowering velocity. The Cubs could have him lean more into the cutter and away from the four-seamer as a result, though he still needs the high, hard one to set up the rest of his arsenal. Either way, even though he might be squared up more than an average pitcher, it seems certain that Crochet would benefit from the superior Cubs defense, after he was often let down by the fielders behind him on the South Side in 2024.

Crochet is an ace, without question, and his only question mark—whether he can be a durable starter across a full-season workload, including pitching into October—would be a less daunting one for the Cubs than for many teams, especially now that Boyd is on board to lend extra depth. The only real reason not to pounce on a Crochet trade is that it would cost the team a ton of young talent. With two years of team control remaining, Crochet would cost the team two of their top tier of highly-regarded position players already at Triple A, headlined by Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, and Owen Caissie. If they only gave up one of those, it would only be because they threw in Cade Horton, Ben Brown or Brandon Birdsell instead—and even then, they'd also give up a significant third piece in the process.

You can map the cost for Crochet pretty neatly onto the one the Cubs paid for José Quintana in 2017. Quintana pitched better than is generally remembered while with the Cubs, and to the extent he fell short of expectations, it was because the organization failed in their support of his ongoing development and good health, not because they were wrong to make that move. That deal doesn't deserve the malign with which it's remembered, but this one would be a much clearer win. Crochet's ability to lead a rotation deep into the postseason is bounded only by his health, not by his stuff or skills. There will always be such questions around great pitchers who become available. While it would sting for prospect lovers, this is the kind of trade the Cubs must make this winter: consolidating assets by dealing multiple young players with exciting but uncertain futures for a player with the demonstrated ability to dominate in the majors. Crochet is, arguably, the clearest opportunity to make such a move, and maybe the time for pulling the trigger is drawing near.

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[Rex Buckingham]

Caissie, Birdsell, Jefferson Rojas? someone higher up the list than Rojas? Another pitcher in addition to Rojas?

[Bertz]

I've generally been under the assumption that any SP trade this winter is going to be a Panera style "You Pick 2" where the other team gets one of the Iowa bats and one of the Iowa/pre-arb arms.  There are limitations, like I'm not giving up Shaw or Brown (my favorite bat and arm respectively) in a Jesus Luzardo trade, but that's my rough mental model.

For Crochet?  No limits from me.  I'd try and push towards three slightly lesser pieces, e.g. Alcantara/Caissie/Assad instead of Shaw/Brown.  But ultimately this feels like an opportunity to *really* move the needle, and at a time where the farm is deep enough to take the hit mostly in stride.  Two years of ace level production for $10-15M total at a time where patroll is a bit inflexible is probably only behind a Soto signing as potential impact moves likely to be available over the next 24 months.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In terms of deals that can get over the line, I would probably steer towards something like Caissie/Alcantara, Triantos, Wicks/Assad.  If they'd rather bet on Hernandez as the third piece that could also work.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

In terms of deals that can get over the line, I would probably steer towards something like Caissie/Alcantara, Triantos, Wicks/Assad.  If they'd rather bet on Hernandez as the third piece that could also work.

Yeah, I think this is around the level of price I'm thinking works. With that said, I'd probably allow Ballesteros into the talks on the hitter level. I think he's probably a 2/3rds of the time DH and while I really like the bat...I can let that go if push came to shove. 

If I could, Shaw would be the one I'd keep hold on tightest. I really like his profile and the more I dive into the numbers the more I keep seeing Dustin Pedroia type outcomes. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I think this is around the level of price I'm thinking works. With that said, I'd probably allow Ballesteros into the talks on the hitter level. I think he's probably a 2/3rds of the time DH and while I really like the bat...I can let that go if push came to shove. 

If I could, Shaw would be the one I'd keep hold on tightest. I really like his profile and the more I dive into the numbers the more I keep seeing Dustin Pedroia type outcomes. 

Yeah, I think if you allow Ballesteros you can shave a grade off the 2nd/3rd piece, like maybe it's McCullough or Ramirez instead of Wicks or Hernandez in that case.  I wouldn't touch Shaw or Smith.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yeah, I think if you allow Ballesteros you can shave a grade off the 2nd/3rd piece, like maybe it's McCullough or Ramirez instead of Wicks or Hernandez in that case.  I wouldn't touch Shaw or Smith.

I'd allow Assad in that. He's a nice swing guy, but I'd trust the Cubs to replace him. Gripes aside from the front office, they've done well identifying solid-ish arms. "Hey, Jed, you can go find another $5m swing man!" seems like something Hoyer wouldn't mind hearing at all (and I'm saying that a little tounge-in-cheek but a little not. I really think he revels in those kinds of finds). 

[Tryptamine]

Shaw and Smith I'd do everything in my power to keep out of a deal, I'd try real hard on Ballesteros too but I could be convinced based on the other pieces going. They could easily get something done with 2 of Caissie/Triantos/Rojas/Alcantara going as well as a nice 3rd piece from further down the farm

 

 

[JBears79]

One of Cassie/Alcantara/MoBaller, one of Triantos/Rojas and one of Assad/Wicks/Wiggins.

That's probably close. Shaw and Cam Smith are the two untouchables for me right now. Mo Baller is close because of the bat but like 1908 said, if they wanted him I'd trade him. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd allow Assad in that. He's a nice swing guy, but I'd trust the Cubs to replace him. Gripes aside from the front office, they've done well identifying solid-ish arms. "Hey, Jed, you can go find another $5m swing man!" seems like something Hoyer wouldn't mind hearing at all (and I'm saying that a little tounge-in-cheek but a little not. I really think he revels in those kinds of finds). 

Honestly I think the Boyd signing makes it very easy to trade a starter without worrying about backfill.  Like I this is the SP depth chart if we acquire a new guy:

MLB SP - Steele, Shota, New Guy, Taillon, Boyd

MLB LRP - Assad

Iowa SP - Wicks, Brown, Horton, Birdsell, Noland

And this assumes the door is shut on Wesneski and Kilian starting.  Like no such thing as too much pitching, but I think we can comfortably move one young arm this winter.  And I wouldn't be comfortable doing it but it wouldn't be totally reckless to consider moving a second in the right circumstances.