Cubs "Probably Out" On Top-End Free Agents

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The value lost in the QO is not the 1 in 15 chance of drafting another Justin Steele, it's the pool money that impacts the rest of the class(including what you can offer your 1st round pick) on top of losing that pick.  This is why with rare exception the best run teams(even those who spend significantly above the Cubs level) do not sign a QO FA unless they've also lost a QO FA to hedge.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The value lost in the QO is not the 1 in 15 chance of drafting another Justin Steele, it's the pool money that impacts the rest of the class(including what you can offer your 1st round pick) on top of losing that pick.  This is why with rare exception the best run teams(even those who spend significantly above the Cubs level) do not sign a QO FA unless they've also lost a QO FA to hedge.

Case in point even Justin Steele was a guy who got 2nd round money

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The value lost in the QO is not the 1 in 15 chance of drafting another Justin Steele, it's the pool money that impacts the rest of the class(including what you can offer your 1st round pick) on top of losing that pick.  This is why with rare exception the best run teams(even those who spend significantly above the Cubs level) do not sign a QO FA unless they've also lost a QO FA to hedge.

Yep. I just don’t see the Cubs signing someone attached to a QO. If two pitchers are close to equal I think they would pay more to the one without the QO attached to him, instead of maybe getting the other one a little cheaper or for a year or two less but lose the picks and money that goes with the picks. And I hjfhlh doubt they have interest in someone for 3 years or less that is attached to a QO. (Manaea or Pivetta as examples). I think they would lean towards Eovaldi or Flaherty instead. 

[Derwood]

[JHBulls]

Good. Better to find out in November than have that false hope in February that we might sign the last of the big free agents.