Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions

[Bertz]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think we tend to overestimate the improvement Soto would provide per the dollars he'll cost.  Assuming any FA's we sign will give us in WAR the value we paid for them, it doesn't matter a ton who we sign, at least not for 2025, as long as who we sign is an upgrade.

Example:  Let's say we have a 40 million block of money to spend.  We could spend that on Soto with some crumbs leftover, or we could use that to sign Burnes and Hoffman.   Which is better?  Assuming Bellinger projects as a 3 WAR player and Soto a 7 WAR player next season, Soto is a 4 to 5 win upgrade.  Burnes or Fried would be about a 3.5 WAR upgrade from Hendricks, and Hoffman a 1-2 win upgrade totaling about 5 WAR.  Its a wash.  There's many combos we could use that would be just as valuable an upgrade as Soto for 2025.

If Soto were a catcher or 3B or some other horribly deficient hole we had last year the upgrade to our potential win total from 2024 would obviously be greater.  Sorry to be a buzz kill for all us Soto lovers 🙂

I agree on the trade front.  If you transfer value sitting in the minors to the MLB roster and add an MLB player who would provide surplus value (which let's assume a FA making FA money is unlikely to do) then the WAR per million spent on this roster is going to go up and we can assume wins will go up because the money savings can then be used to spend to further upgrade and add more WAR to the team in FA.

You're using projections for Bellinger but last year's results for the rotation.  To be apples to apples you need to compare the Soto upgrade over Bellinger to the Burnes/Fried upgrade over some combo of Wicks/Brown/Wesneski/Horton.

There's also a very good chance Bellinger opts out, then it's Soto's 6.5 WAR vs. Tauchman’s 1.5.

The general idea is right that we need to compare the new guys to what they're replacing, which is why 10 WAR =/= 10 Wins.  However with Soto you're concentrating 6-7 WAR into one roster spot.  You're also, because it's a long term contract, paying ~$40M this year for ~$60M in expected production.  There's plenty of that with a Burnes as well, but not with guys on 1-2 year deals.

If you want to maximize 2025 wins in FA, Soto is pretty clearly the guy.  I'd go as far as to say by an order of magnitude.  There are plenty of good offseasons to be had without him, but he's in line for the largest contract ever for a reason.

[Rex Buckingham]

I also think the presence of a bat like Soto changes things in a way that WAR doesn't measure. It changes the way pitchers approach the guys around him, maybe being more aggressive in the zone in front of him for example. 

But alas, he's not going to be a Cub

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I also think the presence of a bat like Soto changes things in a way that WAR doesn't measure. It changes the way pitchers approach the guys around him, maybe being more aggressive in the zone in front of him for example. 

But alas, he's not going to be a Cub

The last line says all that needs to be said. But I agree with everything you said as well. With Soto the line up is way different. This guy walked 129 times last year and has an OBP of 419 WITH JUDGE BATTING AFTER HIM. If he was on the Cubs he would probably be on base closer to 50% of the time than 40% of the time. He changes the entire team. Unfortunately this will not be something Jed will explore. 

[mul21]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think we tend to overestimate the improvement Soto would provide per the dollars he'll cost.  Assuming any FA's we sign will give us in WAR the value we paid for them, it doesn't matter a ton who we sign, at least not for 2025, as long as who we sign is an upgrade.

Example:  Let's say we have a 40 million block of money to spend.  We could spend that on Soto with some crumbs leftover, or we could use that to sign Burnes and Hoffman.   Which is better?  Assuming Bellinger projects as a 3 WAR player and Soto a 7 WAR player next season, Soto is a 4 to 5 win upgrade.  Burnes or Fried would be about a 3.5 WAR upgrade from Hendricks, and Hoffman a 1-2 win upgrade totaling about 5 WAR.  Its a wash.  There's many combos we could use that would be just as valuable an upgrade as Soto for 2025.

If Soto were a catcher or 3B or some other horribly deficient hole we had last year the upgrade to our potential win total from 2024 would obviously be greater.  Sorry to be a buzz kill for all us Soto lovers 🙂

I agree on the trade front.  If you transfer value sitting in the minors to the MLB roster and add an MLB player who would provide surplus value (which let's assume a FA making FA money is unlikely to do) then the WAR per million spent on this roster is going to go up and we can assume wins will go up because the money savings can then be used to spend to further upgrade and add more WAR to the team in FA.

This is a spot where I think you have to take a step back from the analytics and look at the real, in game effect of a true impact guy in the lineup.  With the rest of the lineup the Cubs are expected to run out next year that looks to have no real weak spot (assuming PCA and Amaya don't go back in the tank or another reliable C is signed), the impact of a 7 WAR guy whose value is primarily on offense will make a bigger impact on this lineup than going other routes.  Having that guy who puts up a 178 OPS+ (career 160, which is probably more likely at Wrigley vs Yankee Stadium) as a constant threat in the lineup is going to have a bigger impact than a couple 125 OPS+ guys at the same price tag.

[LBiittner]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think we tend to overestimate the improvement Soto would provide per the dollars he'll cost.  Assuming any FA's we sign will give us in WAR the value we paid for them, it doesn't matter a ton who we sign, at least not for 2025, as long as who we sign is an upgrade.

Example:  Let's say we have a 40 million block of money to spend.  We could spend that on Soto with some crumbs leftover, or we could use that to sign Burnes and Hoffman.   Which is better?  Assuming Bellinger projects as a 3 WAR player and Soto a 7 WAR player next season, Soto is a 4 to 5 win upgrade.  Burnes or Fried would be about a 3.5 WAR upgrade from Hendricks, and Hoffman a 1-2 win upgrade totaling about 5 WAR.  Its a wash.  There's many combos we could use that would be just as valuable an upgrade as Soto for 2025.

If Soto were a catcher or 3B or some other horribly deficient hole we had last year the upgrade to our potential win total from 2024 would obviously be greater.  Sorry to be a buzz kill for all us Soto lovers 🙂

I agree on the trade front.  If you transfer value sitting in the minors to the MLB roster and add an MLB player who would provide surplus value (which let's assume a FA making FA money is unlikely to do) then the WAR per million spent on this roster is going to go up and we can assume wins will go up because the money savings can then be used to spend to further upgrade and add more WAR to the team in FA.

Stratos, with all due respects, I'm an old fart and I recall a Cub gm by the name of Larry himes who couldn't negotiate with Greg maddux and Scott boras. His solution, oh well, we'll  put some Greg maddux money towards 3 free agents, Guzman, plesac and maldonado and cover the overall difference of losing maddog 

[Stratos]

18 hours ago, squally1313 said:

In the Soto scenario why are we guaranteed to get Hendricks level production out of his spot in the rotation?

Ok well what would Brown/Wicks/Wesneski be projected to give us in the rotation next year at the #5 spot?  Assuming Assad is our #4. Wicks was -0.1 WAR last season, Wesneski 0.2, and Brown was worth 1.3 WAR between SP and pen, and anyone else in the org we probably assume is near replacement level.  Plus moving one or a combo of both to the rotation takes away the value they would have added to the pen while they're a SP and the value they provide as depth for injuries to the rotation.

Regarding Soto, we're just as deep in corner OF options and DH types on the bench and Iowa as we are SP who could fill in as a #5.

But for fun let's go by their total projected value as what they'd add to the team.  Soto adds about 7 WAR and Burnes or Fried + Hoffman adds about 5 WAR.  Ok we're better by 2 wins with Soto.  Even a 3 WAR pre-arb player (who costs almost nothing) would add more wins than Soto.  That's why good young players are the most valuable assets in the game and why we should think twice before trading away good prospects for only 1 year of a good MLB player making arb salary.  Plus the risk is is far, far lower than a Soto-like contract and is very unlikely to lose all its value through performance regression.  Young players are flippable for more assets before they hit FA or you get a QO pick, while watching a star player depreciate in value every season especially in their late 30's brings nothing back.  Similar to why cars are such a bad investment.

[Cuzi]

You act like its a given that a young player automatically appreciates in value.

How much value do you think Jordan Walker has added to the Cardinals? Is he more or less valuable today than he was when he was still a prospect?

Prospects succeed at around a 15% rate. I'll invest in Soto every day over that.

Edited October 31, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You act like its a given that a young player automatically appreciates in value.

How much value do you think Jordan Walker has added to the Cardinals? Is he more or less valuable today than he was when he was still a prospect?

Prospects succeed at around a 15% rate. I'll invest in Soto every day over that.

I agree with this. Waiting around for prospects to make your team great is what small market teams have to do. Large market teams need to use “most” prospects as assets to use to acquire actual major league talent. Given the choice of Soto in the line up and Cease in the rotation versus Cassie or Alcantara in the line up and even someone like Flaherty in the rotation, I will go with Soto/Cease every time. If one of Alcantara or Cassie plus maybe another prospect in the 10-15 range of the Cubs prospect list can get Cease, I make that move. Not like the Cubs can’t sign Cease once they have him. 

[Stratos]

On 10/30/2024 at 9:46 AM, Rcal10 said:

The last line says all that needs to be said. But I agree with everything you said as well. With Soto the line up is way different. This guy walked 129 times last year and has an OBP of 419 WITH JUDGE BATTING AFTER HIM. If he was on the Cubs he would probably be on base closer to 50% of the time than 40% of the time. He changes the entire team. Unfortunately this will not be something Jed will explore. 

Yes but Burnes or Fried plus Hoffman or Scott for the same AAV as Soto also changes the rotation and late inning relief significantly.

I'd go Soto here too but when FA guys are making FA money they're all generally paid what they're worth in value, so as long as we sign quality players at positions we need upgrades it matters far less who exactly we choose than we tend to assume.

The point is if we don't get Soto its not the end of the world.

We didn't suck the last 2 years because we didn't sign some other star like Turner or Ohtani, we sucked because we spent 50m on Hendricks, Smyly, Neris, Gomes, Mancini, Barnhart, Bote and got zero or negative WAR out of them.   "Intelligent spending" isn't the issue, it's that Jed failed at it too frequently.

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

 

The point is if we don't get Soto its not the end of the world.

That's good to know. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You act like its a given that a young player automatically appreciates in value.

Where did I say that?

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Where did I say that?

You literally just wrote an essay talking about how good young players are the most valuable, we shouldn't be trading prospects for 1 year players, and they are far less risky than giving Soto a 14 year contract. Which is all horsefeathers.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Yes but Burnes or Fried plus Hoffman or Scott for the same AAV as Soto also changes the rotation and late inning relief significantly.

I'd go Soto here too but when FA guys are making FA money they're all generally paid what they're worth in value, so as long as we sign quality players at positions we need upgrades it matters far less who exactly we choose than we tend to assume.

The point is if we don't get Soto its not the end of the world.

We didn't suck the last 2 years because we didn't sign some other star like Turner or Ohtani, we sucked because we spent 50m on Hendricks, Smyly, Neris, Gomes, Mancini, Barnhart, Bote and got zero or negative WAR out of them.   "Intelligent spending" isn't the issue, it's that Jed failed at it too frequently.

I agree they can still be good next year without Soto. Let’s face reality, that is the only way they can be good, because they are not getting him. What I don’t agree with is this idea that a prospect needs to  used to fill a spot on the team. Or this fear that a prospect might be good and the Cubs traded him. The major market Cubs should use the young assets they have in the minors to get quality major league talent. This is not an argument of Soto versus Burnes and Scott. It is more a discussion of the use of minor league talent, no matter who they sign. There is a very real path to being very good without Soto. But that path would have to include trading young talent. And I am fine with that. 
One last point, I feel this “intelligent spending” mantra is code for a FO afraid to make a big move. I hope they come out of their comfort level this year and get aggressive. 

[Stratos]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with this. Waiting around for prospects to make your team great is what small market teams have to do. Large market teams need to use “most” prospects as assets to use to acquire actual major league talent. Given the choice of Soto in the line up and Cease in the rotation versus Cassie or Alcantara in the line up and even someone like Flaherty in the rotation, I will go with Soto/Cease every time. If one of Alcantara or Cassie plus maybe another prospect in the 10-15 range of the Cubs prospect list can get Cease, I make that move. Not like the Cubs can’t sign Cease once they have him. 

We dont have a payroll anywhere near the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. so the FO can't behave like them and expect similar results.  If we're going to have a payroll just under the cap and trade away most of our good prospects then we're taking away a lot of our surplus potential.

If the Dodgers are outspending everyone they don't need to worry much about surplus, but we still do.

You also seem to focus on the short term gains without much regard for the longterm consequences.  Maybe because you're older and think you may not be around towards the end of a 12 year contract lol.  That's not really fair to the rest of the fanbase though.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Stratos said:

We dont have a payroll anywhere near the Dodgers

When was the last time you looked?

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

We dont have a payroll anywhere near the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. so the FO can't behave like them and expect similar results.  If we're going to have a payroll just under the cap and trade away most of our good prospects then we're taking away a lot of our surplus potential.

I think I agree conceptually that the main problem is the lack of cheap production, but I don't know how that problem is solved by signing two free agent pitchers instead of one free agent hitter. Yeah most of our prospects are on the offensive side of the spectrum, but our starting spots are 9/9 filled as we speak, and Soto is the only elite option out there, so go get him, make the bench a strength, and then turn the cheap prospect offense into cheap pitching. 

[Stratos]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You literally just wrote an essay talking about how good young players are the most valuable, we shouldn't be trading prospects for 1 year players, and they are far less risky than giving Soto a 14 year contract. Which is all horsefeathers.

I said good young players, not good young prospects.   A good young player is putting up good WAR in the MLB.  A good young prospect is a potential good young MLB player.  Baez, Contreras, Hendricks were good young players for us in 2016.

Prospects are risky, a good young player already putting up numbers in the MLB is far less so.  If fans think we're going to be a consistently good team by signing stars and trading away the farm for 1-year players they're fooling themselves.  Trading prospects for cheap controllable guys like Busch and Paredes is more productive than an Alonso or Cease trade.

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

When was the last time you looked?

They deferred Ohtani's salary

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

I said good young players, not good young prospects.   A good young player is putting up good WAR in the MLB.  A good young prospect is a potential good young MLB player.  Baez, Contreras, Hendricks were good young players for us in 2016.

Prospects are risky, a good young player already putting up numbers in the MLB is far less so.  If fans think we're going to be a consistently good team by signing stars and trading away the farm for 1-year players they're fooling themselves.  Trading prospects for cheap controllable guys like Busch and Paredes is more productive than an Alonso or Cease trade.

That depends entirely on the makeup of the roster.

Regardless of that, where are the Cubs going to fit a "good young player"? Nowhere. The team is up and down full of "good young" to "good middle age" players. This team needs stars right now. Another 2-3 win player isn't putting us over the top and a guy like Alcantara isn't breaking the roster.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They deferred Ohtani's salary

What is your point? His contract still counts $43M against the tax.

Edited October 31, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

I'm going to go borrow 500k from the bank and buy myself a Lamborghini.  I won't have to pay back the loan until 5-10 years from now (with interest). This is a winning investment strategy.  Everything will work itself out.

[Cuzi]

25 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I'm going to go borrow 500k from the bank and buy myself a Lamborghini.  I won't have to pay back the loan until 5-10 years from now (with interest). This is a winning investment strategy.  Everything will work itself out.

There's no interest on Ohtani's contract, so...

You keep wanting to use cars as an analogy, but it fails because your car isn't making you money in the process.

You think the Dodgers are worried about paying Ohtani money in the future? No. They are going to pay him back with just a portion of the money he brought in.

Edited October 31, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

We dont have a payroll anywhere near the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. so the FO can't behave like them and expect similar results.  If we're going to have a payroll just under the cap and trade away most of our good prospects then we're taking away a lot of our surplus potential.

If the Dodgers are outspending everyone they don't need to worry much about surplus, but we still do.

You also seem to focus on the short term gains without much regard for the longterm consequences.  Maybe because you're older and think you may not be around towards the end of a 12 year contract lol.  That's not really fair to the rest of the fanbase though.

 

There is no reason the Cubs can’t have a higher payroll. There is also no reason they can’t trade for Cease and then do something crazy like sign him to a long term deal. They can’t be afraid to use prospects for proven talent. And I am using Cease as an example because he is on the last year of his deal, therefore the talent they lose to get him is less than getting a guy like him who also has years left on a deal and or years of control left. Someone like Logan Gilbert would be better, because he has more control. Or even Crochet. But both would cost a good deal more in prospects. Maybe someone like Mitch Keller works. While he isn’t the level of Cease, Gilbert or Crochet, he is signed through 28. So he will cost a little more because of additional years, but not as much as Crochet or Gilbert, because he isn’t as good. Maybe he settled into a solid MOR starter for the Cubs. So since you are so concerned about losing talent for a proven major leaguer, which makes more sense to you if the cost to acquire the pitcher is Alcantara and a 10-15 prospect in the system. Keller and have him thru 28, or Cease for a year and hope to sign him long term. Do you like 4 years of decent pitching or 1 year of TOR pitching with the possibility of signing him long term. Or would you rather lose a top 3 prospect in the system along with another guy at the back end of baseballs top 100 and probably another one or two decent prospects (maybe another top 100) and get Logan Gilbert. They would have him for at least 3 years. The thing is,  what are they going to do with all these guys? They need to trade some. They can’t keep them all. There isn’t a place for them. So trade a few and bring a few along through the system and to the majors. Use them now, when they are at their highest value. 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Cuzi said:

That depends entirely on the makeup of the roster.

Regardless of that, where are the Cubs going to fit a "good young player"? Nowhere. The team is up and down full of "good young" to "good middle age" players. This team needs stars right now. Another 2-3 win player isn't putting us over the top and a guy like Alcantara isn't breaking the roster.

If we got 2.5 wins each out of catcher, 3B, and Hendricks' SP spot in 2024 that's 7.5 WAR improvement and we'd have been around 90-91 wins.  If we had Soto in 2024 and found a way to add all his 8 WAR we'd have been at 91 wins or so too.

I do recognize the value in having a very high WAR player like Soto, so I agree with you on that and which is why I support going after him, but I also know that it's not the end of the world if we don't acquire him.  That's my only point here.  There's some other options for some very good players that can get us close to the upgrade in production Soto would bring for the same AAV spent.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Cuzi said:

What is your point? His contract still counts $43M against the tax.

What's your point?  The Dodgers had a luxury tax payroll of 340m in 2024.  That's about 100m more than the Cubs, which is literally what Freeman, Betts, and Ohtani cost in 2024 towards the LT.  Cubs FO can't play the same strategy as LA.