Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions

[Bertz]

53 minutes ago, Derwood said:

If Bellinger opts out, is the prevailing assumption that Seiya is the de facto RF and they would pursue a DH bat, or that Seiya is the DH and they would pursue an OF?

I'm assuming Soto is a non-starter with this FO

My guess would be they're going to let who they can get dictate how the defense aligns rather than let a specificdefensive alignment dictate who they go after.  Seiya is not a good RFer but he's not Kyle Schwarber or Adam Dunn.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Blind resume test:

Honestly I don’t even care which stats belong to which player. After a while I stop caring about EV, how often he hits a ball in the air, barrel rate, bat speed, k rate, w rate, or any other metric people love to use to make a point. After a while of year in and year out numbers, end results matter.  Lowe beats Torres in both career numbers and numbers last year in OPS, and OPS+. And he beats him rather easy. Hell, Torres numbers last year were equal to Hoerner. Besides that Lowe hits from the left side and can, in limited times, play the outfield. If Bellinger does opt out he is a better fit. I don’t hate the idea of Torres if he overvalues himself and ends up costing himself a multi year deal. On a cheaper 1 or 2 year deal he would be fine. He would be a good fill in for Hoerner when he is out. But he wouldn’t be my choice between him and Lowe. And if they did get Torres, IMO, they would still need to add a better bat then his, who also hits left handed. When Hoerner comes  back they mix 9 players into 8 non-catcher spots in the line up and always have a decent guy in the bench. I just wouldn’t want only Torres. With Hoerner back Torres would be the primary DH. And his bat isn’t good enough for that. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

If Bellinger opts out, is the prevailing assumption that Seiya is the de facto RF and they would pursue a DH bat, or that Seiya is the DH and they would pursue an OF?

I'm assuming Soto is a non-starter with this FO

I am pretty sure you are right about Soto. And any idea I post is based on no chance on Soto. If they are in in him, that takes center stage over any other options, without question. 

[Stratos]

15 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Considering the Cubs and Rays did make a deal at the deadline, I am pretty sure each tr knows what the other might want or be willing to give in a Lowe deal. So I agree that Lowe is a strong possibility as a trade target. 

It would depend on how Jed wants to allocate the money.  Lowe will cost about 10m next year.  If we're conservative and say Nico isn't 100% until e.g. June, are the Cubs going to want to spend 10m on an upgrade for 2-3 months when we have other needs, like catcher, the pen etc?  We do have Shaw who could potentially step in for a few months in a pinch and hopefully hold his own, he seems close to ready, and sign a cheap backup.  Or they could try for a cheaper option than Lowe/Torres and get creative via trade (probably my preference).  Or find the next Tauchman or Wisdom.  I'm pretty done with wasting millions on post-prime vets barely above replacement like a Whit Merrifield.

Lowe is fine but if Lowe is acquired then someone costing 10m is out.  Someone mentioned here like Jansen, Holmes, O'Neil/Joc ., or a downgrade in the SP we can afford etc.  Busch is potentially another option with Belli at 1B, though that seems unlikely.

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Nico isn't going to miss the whole year or even the first half, there's uncertainty around him being available for opening day but not for months into the season.  If Torres is signing a short term deal to set up a larger payday, he is definitely going to see that he does not have a defensive home to prove himself, especially compared to other suitors who do not have gold glovers at the only position he (attempts to) plays defensively.

Agree 100%.  And agree that Lowe is the better hitter.

[Cuzi]

19 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Blind resume test

One year is a resume? Over the last 3 years we are talking 113 vs 116 wRC+.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

It would depend on how Jed wants to allocate the money.  Lowe will cost about 10m next year.  If we're conservative and say Nico isn't 100% until e.g. June, are the Cubs going to want to spend 10m on an upgrade for 2-3 months when we have other needs, like catcher, the pen etc?  We do have Shaw who could potentially step in for a few months in a pinch and hopefully hold his own, he seems close to ready, and sign a cheap backup.  Or they could try for a cheaper option than Lowe/Torres and get creative via trade (probably my preference).  Or find the next Tauchman or Wisdom.  I'm pretty done with wasting millions on post-prime vets barely above replacement like a Whit Merrifield.

Lowe is fine but if Lowe is acquired then someone costing 10m is out.  Someone mentioned here like Jansen, Holmes, O'Neil/Joc ., or a downgrade in the SP we can afford etc.  Busch is potentially another option with Belli at 1B, though that seems unlikely.

Lowe fits well even when Hoerner comes back. If Bellinger is gone, he is the DH. Even if they added another bat that is a “regular” everyday guy, that player and Lowe still fit with Hoerner back. They would have 9 guys for 8 non catching spots. Which is fine. If Bellinger leaves you have around $80M to spend. Plenty of money to have a solid pitcher signed along with trading for Lowe, adding a pen arm, a share time/starting catcher and another decent bat. If they are getting right to their budget, instead of signing another bat or a high end staring pitcher, they can use some of their minor league assets to trade for one of those spots to get a younger, controlled starting pitcher or bat. Money should not be an issue this off season. Not if Jed gets aggressive with some of his minor league talent. IMO now is the time to trade them before they start losing value. 
if Bellinger comes back, Lowe still works with the  9 guys for 8 positions idea. But then they might need to trade some prospects for one of the main things they need. Either a trade for a controlled pitcher, a high leverage pen arm, or a starting catcher. Then use the rest of the budget to fill in the other spots.                    By no means is Lowe someone they have to have. Just saying he does make sense and he doesn’t make that much money to mess them up. There are several ways to make this team solid next year, however. But Jed needs to be aggressive and this is the year he should be. 

[LBiittner]

I wonder who would interest the Rays in a Lowe trade? Gotta be at least 2 kids, fer sure. 

[LBiittner]

Jed spent 14(over 2) on mancini, so I don't think he'd wince at 10 for a quality player. And if Cubs do their typical June swoon, he's flippable to an authentic contender. 

Edited October 26, 2024 by LBiittner

[LBiittner]

I know this probably ain't the right thread, but the Dodgers won out big on that trade that brought back Edman/kopech. 

Very Thankful jed didn't go the vargas route instead of busch.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Lowe fits well even when Hoerner comes back. If Bellinger is gone, he is the DH. Even if they added another bat that is a “regular” everyday guy, that player and Lowe still fit with Hoerner back. They would have 9 guys for 8 non catching spots. Which is fine. If Bellinger leaves you have around $80M to spend. Plenty of money to have a solid pitcher signed along with trading for Lowe, adding a pen arm, a share time/starting catcher and another decent bat. If they are getting right to their budget, instead of signing another bat or a high end staring pitcher, they can use some of their minor league assets to trade for one of those spots to get a younger, controlled starting pitcher or bat. Money should not be an issue this off season. Not if Jed gets aggressive with some of his minor league talent. IMO now is the time to trade them before they start losing value. 
if Bellinger comes back, Lowe still works with the  9 guys for 8 positions idea. But then they might need to trade some prospects for one of the main things they need. Either a trade for a controlled pitcher, a high leverage pen arm, or a starting catcher. Then use the rest of the budget to fill in the other spots.                    By no means is Lowe someone they have to have. Just saying he does make sense and he doesn’t make that much money to mess them up. There are several ways to make this team solid next year, however. But Jed needs to be aggressive and this is the year he should be. 

The more I look at Lowe the more I agree and like this idea.  If Bellinger opts-out, which is more likely than not, I agree Lowe can be that extra quality bat and probably not to sign a Joc/O'Neill type and spend that money on Lowe.  Seiya moves back to RF.  As you say, Lowe can DH when Nico comes back.  He's about just as good a bat as Joc or O'Neill and provides HR power we need to add to this lineup, even more power than Belli would provide most likely.

Until Nico comes back (which may hopefully only be a month or 2 max) we can get by at DH.  We can possibly sign a bench OF bat, some cheap bat-first bargain fliers, plus some young guys already on the 40-man like Canario, Mervis, Alcanatara etc can compete in the mix in ST as well.  Tauchman is in the mix also, but I'd prefer more power.

This still leaves money for everything else we're looking at in FA:  catcher upgrade like Jansen, a quality SP, possible late-inning reliever etc.  I'm sure Jed will also be looking at the trade market like he did with the Busch trade.  I think Jed will be looking to keep our top prospects including Alcantara, Caissie, Shaw, Cam Smith.  I think guys like Canario, Triantos, Ballesteros (if they think he can't be catcher) who lack a position here longterm compared to other prospects are expendable in trade, and i'm fine with trading any other prospects including any of the younger ones in the low minors.  I'm not sure how they project the SS Rojas and Fernando Cruz but like Jackson Ferris i'm willing to trade them to upgrade the 2025 MLB team.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The more I look at Lowe the more I agree and like this idea.  If Bellinger opts-out, which is more likely than not, I agree Lowe can be that extra quality bat and probably not to sign a Joc/O'Neill type and spend that money on Lowe.  Seiya moves back to RF.  As you say, Lowe can DH when Nico comes back.  He's about just as good a bat as Joc or O'Neill and provides HR power we need to add to this lineup, even more power than Belli would provide most likely.

Until Nico comes back (which may hopefully only be a month or 2 max) we can get by at DH.  We can possibly sign a bench OF bat, some cheap bat-first bargain fliers, plus some young guys already on the 40-man like Canario, Mervis, Alcanatara etc can compete in the mix in ST as well.  Tauchman is in the mix also, but I'd prefer more power.

This still leaves money for everything else we're looking at in FA:  catcher upgrade like Jansen, a quality SP, possible late-inning reliever etc.  I'm sure Jed will also be looking at the trade market like he did with the Busch trade.  I think Jed will be looking to keep our top prospects including Alcantara, Caissie, Shaw, Cam Smith.  I think guys like Canario, Triantos, Ballesteros (if they think he can't be catcher) who lack a position here longterm compared to other prospects are expendable in trade, and i'm fine with trading any other prospects including any of the younger ones in the low minors.  I'm not sure how they project the SS Rojas and Fernando Cruz but like Jackson Ferris i'm willing to trade them to upgrade the 2025 MLB team.

Yep, then maybe they sign someone like Mountcastle as a right handed bat off the bench. While Nico is out Mountcastle is the DH. When Nico comes back is when you sub guys in and out of the line up, depending on the pitcher that day. This would leave a good sum of money for pitching help. They can go with Rogers and Holmes in the pen and then maybe trade some young assets for a quality controlled pitcher. Sign Jansen to catch. They might even have enough money to sign Flaherty, Rogers, Holmes and Jansen. Win with pitching. And still have all your prospects.     
Perronally, I would trade a few to fill one of the spots I mentioned. I think the prospects are as valuable as they will ever be. Waiting may cause them to lose some value. But they don’t have to move them. There is enough money to do all of this. 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Jed spent 14(over 2) on mancini, so I don't think he'd wince at 10 for a quality player. And if Cubs do their typical June swoon, he's flippable to an authentic contender. 

Lowe would at least be flippable before he's a FA.  They could keep him for all of 2025 and trade him next offseason.  By 2026 Shaw as well as Triantos should be able to play the infield in the MLB, and there will be a bunch of DH options or guys to play OF and put Seiya at DH like Caissie, Alcantara, Ballestos etc. plus other options in trade or FA.

In 2026, unless you can get a clear upgrade like a Soto or Vlad Jr, I like the idea of OF/DH filled by Happ, Seiya, PCA, Alcantara, Caissie.  That's 5 guys for 4 spots and 3 of them are dirt cheap and hopefully provide a bunch of surplus.  The money saved (e.g. like the 27.5m spent on Bellinger this year) can go towards a Soto/Vlad type or a TORP, a good catcher, or any other high-end player.

My ideal would be to sign Soto (obviously), keep everyone mentioned for 2025, trade Happ next offseason or at the 2026 trade deadline (he'll be a FA after 2026).  2026-2027 would be OF/DH of Soto, PCA, Suzuki, Alcantara/Caissie if all works out.  In the mix on INF would be Swanson, Paredes, Shaw, Busch, Nico.  Nico is FA after 2026 or is traded before that.  Cam Smith ETA as a potential regular is probably 2027.

[Stratos]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep, then maybe they sign someone like Mountcastle as a right handed bat off the bench. While Nico is out Mountcastle is the DH. When Nico comes back is when you sub guys in and out of the line up, depending on the pitcher that day. This would leave a good sum of money for pitching help. They can go with Rogers and Holmes in the pen and then maybe trade some young assets for a quality controlled pitcher. Sign Jansen to catch. They might even have enough money to sign Flaherty, Rogers, Holmes and Jansen. Win with pitching. And still have all your prospects.     
Perronally, I would trade a few to fill one of the spots I mentioned. I think the prospects are as valuable as they will ever be. Waiting may cause them to lose some value. But they don’t have to move them. There is enough money to do all of this. 

Which Rogers?

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Which Rogers?

Sorry, meant Tanner Scott. Senior moment….😩

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Sorry, meant Tanner Scott. Senior moment….😩

Haha no worries friend.

[Bertz]

Ironically, thinking about this more has me curious what role Jed's got in mind for trades.

Assuming Bellinger is gone, with ~$80M to burn and these salary expectations it is pretty easy to do a full offseason in free agency.  Something like

Eovaldi (21 / year)

O'Neill (16)

Lowe (12)

Hoffman (9)

Is less than $60M, leaving plenty to address catcher and do some additional bench/bullpen fiddling.  So if you're Jed and you also have plenty of resources to pursue the trade market. do you:

- Hold steady and don't meaningfully dip into the farm since you don't have to.  By mid-season you will have a better idea of attrition and should also have a guy or three absolutely pounding on the door and can make your big trade(s) from there

- Make a trade for an impact player who is not due an impact salary.  This has the double benefit of letting you aim higher in FA.  For example if you trade for Brent Rooker you address "big bat" for only $5M.  From there it's a lot easier to be comfortable graduating from the Nate Eovaldi tier of FA starters to the Fried/Snell/Burnes tier

- Use trade to try and reduce the number of multi-year FA deals you have to hand out.  For instance instead of signing Yusei Kikuchi to a $14M per year deal, trade for Dylan Cease and his $14M salary.  The team currently has very little salary set to come off the books next offseason.  So to maintain financial flexibility next offseason, you probably want a move or three this winter to be one-year deals, whether they be trades or FAs

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ironically, thinking about this more has me curious what role Jed's got in mind for trades.

Assuming Bellinger is gone, with ~$80M to burn and these salary expectations it is pretty easy to do a full offseason in free agency.  Something like

Eovaldi (21 / year)

O'Neill (16)

Lowe (12)

Hoffman (9)

Is less than $60M, leaving plenty to address catcher and do some additional bench/bullpen fiddling.  So if you're Jed and you also have plenty of resources to pursue the trade market. do you:

- Hold steady and don't meaningfully dip into the farm since you don't have to.  By mid-season you will have a better idea of attrition and should also have a guy or three absolutely pounding on the door and can make your big trade(s) from there

 

- Make a trade for an impact player who is not due an impact salary.  This has the double benefit of letting you aim higher in FA.  For example if you trade for Brent Rooker you address "big bat" for only $5M.  From there it's a lot easier to be comfortable graduating from the Nate Eovaldi tier of FA starters to the Fried/Snell/Burnes tier

- Use trade to try and reduce the number of multi-year FA deals you have to hand out.  For instance instead of signing Yusei Kikuchi to a $14M per year deal, trade for Dylan Cease and his $14M salary.  The team currently has very little salary set to come off the books next offseason.  So to maintain financial flexibility next offseason, you probably want a move or three this winter to be one-year deals, whether they be trades or FAs

Yep. This is just one example of many ways to make this team very good next year. I would want them to add a lefty pen arm too. High aim would be Tanner Scott. But more realistic might be Chafin. There are others as well.
Also, depending on what Cease might cost via trade, I would rather him than Eovaldi. They have plenty if money to work with for fee agents or trades for bigger priced players and they have plenty of minor league talent to trade. No excuse to not be good next year, even without Soto. 

[jumbo]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Ironically, thinking about this more has me curious what role Jed's got in mind for trades.

Assuming Bellinger is gone, with ~$80M to burn and these salary expectations it is pretty easy to do a full offseason in free agency.  Something like

Eovaldi (21 / year)

O'Neill (16)

Lowe (12)

Hoffman (9)

Is less than $60M, leaving plenty to address catcher and do some additional bench/bullpen fiddling.  So if you're Jed and you also have plenty of resources to pursue the trade market. do you:

- Hold steady and don't meaningfully dip into the farm since you don't have to.  By mid-season you will have a better idea of attrition and should also have a guy or three absolutely pounding on the door and can make your big trade(s) from there

- Make a trade for an impact player who is not due an impact salary.  This has the double benefit of letting you aim higher in FA.  For example if you trade for Brent Rooker you address "big bat" for only $5M.  From there it's a lot easier to be comfortable graduating from the Nate Eovaldi tier of FA starters to the Fried/Snell/Burnes tier

- Use trade to try and reduce the number of multi-year FA deals you have to hand out.  For instance instead of signing Yusei Kikuchi to a $14M per year deal, trade for Dylan Cease and his $14M salary.  The team currently has very little salary set to come off the books next offseason.  So to maintain financial flexibility next offseason, you probably want a move or three this winter to be one-year deals, whether they be trades or FAs

Not to give you homework, but what does that FA crew do to the team WAR? Counsell now famously called for a 90 win team, where does this get us? 

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, jumbo said:

Not to give you homework, but what does that FA crew do to the team WAR? Counsell now famously called for a 90 win team, where does this get us? 

2025 Projections won't hit Fangraphs for another week or two but I'd guess:

Eovaldi - 2.5

Lowe - 2.5

O'neill - 2

Hoffman - 1

TBD veteran catcher - 1

Additional bench/bullpen tinkering - 1

So 10 WAR on top of a team that already looks a bit better than .500.  That said because the team already has some decent depth at a couple of those spots, 10 WAR isn't going to equal 10 wins in the standings.  This team probably gets you up to 87-88 wins?  I think you need Soto or a trade or two to hit that 90+ win expectation.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

2025 Projections won't hit Fangraphs for another week or two but I'd guess:

Eovaldi - 2.5

Lowe - 2.5

O'neill - 2

Hoffman - 1

TBD veteran catcher - 1

Additional bench/bullpen tinkering - 1

So 10 WAR on top of a team that already looks a bit better than .500.  That said because the team already has some decent depth at a couple of those spots, 10 WAR isn't going to equal 10 wins in the standings.  This team probably gets you up to 87-88 wins?  I think you need Soto or a trade or two to hit that 90+ win expectation.

Maybe with some tweaking to your option they do get to an expected 90 wins. A trade for Cease gives them a better pitcher than Eovaldi. Maybe they add Tanner Scott too. Cease saves them around $8M compared to Eovaldi. So the initial moves cost them a little over $50M. Add Scott and they still have some money to fill remaining spots on the bench. A lineup with O’Neil, Lowe and possibly a platoon/starting catcher added makes for a solid line up. Add Cease to the staff and you have a very solid top 4. Add Hoffman and Scott to the pen and you have a high end pen. I think that is a team expected to win 90 games. 
Once Nico comes back you have one everyday bat on the bench every day. So the bench is better too. 

[Stratos]

On 10/28/2024 at 11:10 PM, Rcal10 said:

Maybe with some tweaking to your option they do get to an expected 90 wins. A trade for Cease gives them a better pitcher than Eovaldi. Maybe they add Tanner Scott too. Cease saves them around $8M compared to Eovaldi. So the initial moves cost them a little over $50M. Add Scott and they still have some money to fill remaining spots on the bench. A lineup with O’Neil, Lowe and possibly a platoon/starting catcher added makes for a solid line up. Add Cease to the staff and you have a very solid top 4. Add Hoffman and Scott to the pen and you have a high end pen. I think that is a team expected to win 90 games. 
Once Nico comes back you have one everyday bat on the bench every day. So the bench is better too. 

Who would you be willing to part with for Cease?

[Stratos]

On 10/28/2024 at 8:50 PM, Bertz said:

2025 Projections won't hit Fangraphs for another week or two but I'd guess:

Eovaldi - 2.5

Lowe - 2.5

O'neill - 2

Hoffman - 1

TBD veteran catcher - 1

Additional bench/bullpen tinkering - 1

So 10 WAR on top of a team that already looks a bit better than .500.  That said because the team already has some decent depth at a couple of those spots, 10 WAR isn't going to equal 10 wins in the standings.  This team probably gets you up to 87-88 wins?  I think you need Soto or a trade or two to hit that 90+ win expectation.

I think we tend to overestimate the improvement Soto would provide per the dollars he'll cost.  Assuming any FA's we sign will give us in WAR the value we paid for them, it doesn't matter a ton who we sign, at least not for 2025, as long as who we sign is an upgrade.

Example:  Let's say we have a 40 million block of money to spend.  We could spend that on Soto with some crumbs leftover, or we could use that to sign Burnes and Hoffman.   Which is better?  Assuming Bellinger projects as a 3 WAR player and Soto a 7 WAR player next season, Soto is a 4 to 5 win upgrade.  Burnes or Fried would be about a 3.5 WAR upgrade from Hendricks, and Hoffman a 1-2 win upgrade totaling about 5 WAR.  Its a wash.  There's many combos we could use that would be just as valuable an upgrade as Soto for 2025.

If Soto were a catcher or 3B or some other horribly deficient hole we had last year the upgrade to our potential win total from 2024 would obviously be greater.  Sorry to be a buzz kill for all us Soto lovers 🙂

I agree on the trade front.  If you transfer value sitting in the minors to the MLB roster and add an MLB player who would provide surplus value (which let's assume a FA making FA money is unlikely to do) then the WAR per million spent on this roster is going to go up and we can assume wins will go up because the money savings can then be used to spend to further upgrade and add more WAR to the team in FA.

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Who would you be willing to part with for Cease?

Alcantara + Birdsell

Padres are going to need an OFer to replace Profar and Birdsell is the DL Hall piece in the Corbin Burnes trade.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Example:  Let's say we have a 40 million block of money to spend.  We could spend that on Soto with some crumbs leftover, or we could use that to sign Burnes and Hoffman.   Which is better?  Assuming Bellinger projects as a 3 WAR player and Soto a 7 WAR player next season, Soto is a 4 to 5 win upgrade.  Burnes or Fried would be about a 3.5 WAR upgrade from Hendricks, and Hoffman a 1-2 win upgrade totaling about 5 WAR.  Its a wash

In the Soto scenario why are we guaranteed to get Hendricks level production out of his spot in the rotation?