Review of last offseason's moves

[Joj]

On 10/13/2024 at 11:38 AM, Rex Buckingham said:

Next season is make or break for Jed. If he goes into the season basically standing pat, he's letting his job ride on prospects coming up and being everything we hope they would be and for the returners to all stay steady or improve. That makes me think he's going to have to make at least 1 big move this offseason, whether it's for a starter or a big bat

This just struck me as telling.  Nothing wrong with your post, no need for response.  Just that we are fans of this major market team with a middling roster.  The FO is facing a make or break situation and many of us are hoping that this means they'll make ONE big move rather than continuing to act like the Marlins. 

I mean, that's just depressing.  Dang.

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Epstein took risks. Some of those risks didn't pay off. Would you like to compare which was more successful at building a winning team?

Theo broke 2 curses. Hoyer has yet to build a playoff roster.

Theo took over a team with serious flaws and started making big deals in years 4-6 of his tenure. He certainly wasn't putting together winning teams in 2012-2014. Hoyer just wrapped up his 4th year. Obviously Theo got the job done and Hoyer has yet to do it. But pointing to what are pretty objectively, in hindsight, bad deals (made after the World Series team) that hurt the team long term are not good arguments. Quintana won one playoff series when he was here. Kimbrel saw no playoff wins (and had a pretty big hand in costing us a playoff spot in 2019). 

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He certainly wasn't putting together winning teams in 2012-2014.

He also wasn't working up against the tax line in those years.

The only thing that hurt the team long term was a complete void of talent coming up in the minors for years. Their drafts were terrible.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He also wasn't working up against the tax line in those years.

Fair point, but those teams were out of the race by Memorial Day. In some aspects it's an all or nothing type job, in other aspects it's not our money and the last couple seasons have been much more enjoyable (and for longer) than the early Theo years. Like, I don't think anything about the money spent in early Theo years impacted the prime Theo years, and I don't think money spent thus far in Jed years impacts future Jed years. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd also add that these tenures are not uncorrelated!  Theo's biggest failing was a fracture in the pipeline to the majors, through a combination of trading away talent in competitive seasons and falling behind in drafting and development.  That meant that Jed not only had to repair that issue but bear the consequences at the major league level for multiple seasons.

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'd also add that these tenures are not uncorrelated!  Theo's biggest failing was a fracture in the pipeline to the majors, through a combination of trading away talent in competitive seasons and falling behind in drafting and development.  That meant that Jed not only had to repair that issue but bear the consequences at the major league level for multiple seasons.

Yeah you know who would have looked nice on these last two Jed Hoyer teams that were competitive until September? Dylan Cease and his 8.2 fWAR over that time!

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah you know who would have looked nice on these last two Jed Hoyer teams that were competitive until September? Dylan Cease and his 8.2 fWAR over that time!

Yu Darvish would also look better than anything the Cubs got out of that deal.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yu Darvish would also look better than anything the Cubs got out of that deal.

Let’s see how well this statement ages. I get it. Yes, Darvish would have been nice to still have. But the jury is still out on the actual trade. Cubs got what they wanted. Young talent. SD got what they wanted. While the Q for Cease trade has proven to not be good, in hindsight, of course, the final results of the Darvish trade cannot be judged yet. 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'd also add that these tenures are not uncorrelated!  Theo's biggest failing was a fracture in the pipeline to the majors, through a combination of trading away talent in competitive seasons and falling behind in drafting and development.  That meant that Jed not only had to repair that issue but bear the consequences at the major league level for multiple seasons.

I think this really has to be a major consideration when evaluating the job he's done.  The payroll has been as high as it has for guys who are maxing out at 3-4 WAR because he's had to pay market prices for a big portion of that WAR because there were almost no minor leaguers contributing cheaply from the legacy Theo years.  You literally have Happ, Nico, Amaya and Assad as MLB contributors leftover from the Theo era.

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think this really has to be a major consideration when evaluating the job he's done.  The payroll has been as high as it has for guys who are maxing out at 3-4 WAR because he's had to pay market prices for a big portion of that WAR because there were almost no minor leaguers contributing cheaply from the legacy Theo years.  You literally have Happ, Nico, Amaya and Assad as MLB contributors leftover from the Theo era.

Are we acting like Hoyer didn't play a big part in draft selections and player development?

We are literally talking about 3 prospects being traded as the reason that the Cubs system sucked when Hoyer took over control.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Are we acting like Hoyer didn't play a big part in draft selections and player development?

Are we acting like Hoyer didn't play a big part in signing FA and winning a World Series?  We can't ascribe all the good stuff to Theo and then say Jed bears responsibility for things that didn't go well.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Are we acting like Hoyer didn't play a big part in signing FA and winning a World Series?  We can't ascribe all the good stuff to Theo and then say Jed bears responsibility for things that didn't go well.

I've mentioned everything that went for and against the Cubs during Theo's era.

There's a pretty clear distinction from what Theo was willing to do than what Hoyer has shown to be willing to do so far.

One is pretty clearly more successful than the other.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I've mentioned everything that went for and against the Cubs during Theo's era.

There's a pretty clear distinction from what Theo was willing to do than what Hoyer has shown to be willing to do so far.

One is pretty clearly more successful than the other.

So the intention in your original post was to give a fair, even handed, comprehensive even, look at the things Theo did right and the things he did wrong? You meant to include the Kimbrel signing and Quintana trades as criticisms of Theo?

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

So the intention in your original post was to give a fair, even handed, comprehensive even, look at the things Theo did right and the things he did wrong? You meant to include the Kimbrel signing and Quintana trades as criticisms of Theo?

The intention of the post was to point out the risks Theo was willing to take to win. I pretty clearly stated that in the post.

Hoyer has taken zero risks so far and he's at the point of "if not now, when?"

Again, would you care to argue which is more successful at winning?

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The intention of the post was to point out the risks Theo was willing to take to win. I pretty clearly stated that in the post.

Hoyer has taken zero risks so far and he's at the point of "if not now, when?"

Again, would you care to argue which is more successful at winning?

Was Theo more successful in his 10 year run as Chicago's GM than Hoyer has been in his 4 years? Of course, the flags flying in Wrigley show that. Did the Quintana trade or the Soler/Wade Davis trade or the Kimbrel signing have anything to do with that success? No. Your argument was that 'willing to take risks' correlated to success, and then showed a bunch of examples that didn't lead to success and arguably hamstrung the beginning of Jed's time.

Theo signed Lester, Jed signed Swanson (first two years fWAR, 9.1 to 9.2). Theo signed Heyward, Jed has committed $100m to Bellinger. Maybe it's possible that the success that Theo had wasn't from trading prospects for big names, but from Rizzo, KB, Javy, Russell (acquired in a sell trade!), Hendricks, Arrieta, etc coming through the system and becoming elite players at cost controlled salaries, something that just stopped happening under Theo right around 2017. 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

but from Rizzo, KB, Javy, Russell (acquired in a sell trade!), Hendricks, Arrieta, etc coming through the system and becoming elite players at cost controlled salaries, something that just stopped happening under Theo right around 2017. 

All but KB and Javy were traded for.

[squally1313]

Just now, Cuzi said:

All but KB and Javy were traded for.

Yeah, all in trades where we were sending major league talent for minor league prospects. Is that the risky behavior you're looking for? Because Jed has done pretty good there (see: PCA).

[Cuzi]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Yeah, all in trades where we were sending major league talent for minor league prospects. Is that the risky behavior you're looking for? Because Jed has done pretty good there (see: PCA).

1 player in 4 years?

Jed had an opportunity to pull off a Dempster for Hendricks trade but he chose not to trade Stroman when the market was setting a pretty damn high value on him.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

1 player in 4 years?

Jed had an opportunity to pull off a Dempster for Hendricks trade but he chose not to trade Stroman when the market was setting a pretty damn high value on him.

We talking trades in general? Our starting first baseman, center fielder, and third baseman next year were acquired in trades. Alcantara and Caissie were both acquired in trades. As were Wesneski and Kilian, though obviously diminishing returns there.

If you want to argue that Theo did a better job selling major league players on bad teams for prospects than Jed has done so far....sure. Arrieta and Rizzo trades go down in history. But that is very much not 'risky' behavior and very much not what your original argument was. Or are we just ultimately settling on 'Theo is a better GM than Hoyer', because, man, really going out on a limb there. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

1 player in 4 years?

Jed had an opportunity to pull off a Dempster for Hendricks trade but he chose not to trade Stroman when the market was setting a pretty damn high value on him.

Marcus Stroman had an ERA of 9.00 starting with the London game through the deadline last year.  It was practically all anyone could talk about.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We talking trades in general? Our starting first baseman, center fielder, and third baseman next year were acquired in trades. Alcantara and Caissie were both acquired in trades. As were Wesneski and Kilian, though obviously diminishing returns there.

If you want to argue that Theo did a better job selling major league players on bad teams for prospects than Jed has done so far....sure. Arrieta and Rizzo trades go down in history. But that is very much not 'risky' behavior and very much not what your original argument was. Or are we just ultimately settling on 'Theo is a better GM than Hoyer', because, man, really going out on a limb there. 

You are the one that brought up Arrieta and Rizzo, not me.

But at least you finally admit how dumb your argument is trying to prop up Hoyer.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Bertz said:

Marcus Stroman had an ERA of 9.00 starting with the London game through the deadline last year.  It was practically all anyone could talk about.

So did the other "Stromans" at the deadline. They all returned 50 FV prospects.

[squally1313]

Just now, Cuzi said:

You are the one that brought up Arrieta and Rizzo, not me.

But at least you finally admit how dumb your argument is trying to prop up Hoyer.

Yep, you really nailed it with the 'you need to take risks to be successful, just look at the Jake Arrieta deal' argument. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Yep, you really nailed it with the 'you need to take risks to be successful, just look at the Jake Arrieta deal' argument. 

You quote that like I ever said that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So did the other "Stromans" at the deadline. They all returned 50 FV prospects.

Gonna need you to show your work on that one.  Verlander sure, much better pitcher.  Nothing else is remotely close to that as far as I can see.