Called Third Strikes (aka - The Cubs' Flawed Offensive Approach)

[Irrelevant Dude]

Joe Maddon used to preach "accepting walks" and there are multiple quotes from him about that subject.  The current Cubs offense is not doing that.  They are TAKING walks to be sure, but they are taking strikeouts along with them.  It often appears they are going up to the plate just hoping for the walk, rather than trying to make something happen by putting the ball in play. 

Accepting walks implies that a hitter should go to the plate looking to hit the ball, but be willing to walk and not force the issue when a pitcher isn't giving them pitches in the zone.  In most circumstances, it does not mean that a hitter should be actively TRYING to walk.  I'm tired of seeing guys take strikes down the middle of the plate, or even taking a third strike a millimeter outside the box and then complaining when the umpire rings them up.

The Cubs offense needs to get more aggressive.  They need to stop waiting for pitchers to walk them and stop leaving everything in the hands of the umpire on a borderline 3-2 pitch.

Is this a flaw in the Cubs overall offensive approach?  Are they preaching patience to the detriment of production?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs are 9th highest in Z-Swing, 17th highest in O-Swing, while being 12th in Swing % overall.  I don't see an easy way to break that down by count, but considering they're 19th in Ks and 9th in BBs I don't see any reason to think they're a big outlier.  I think the degree to which that gets noticed is due to 1) taken strike threes are way more memorable and 2) there's a league wide shift due to how much harder pitch recognition is with tunneling and how good pitchers are at inducing chase.

[Bertz]

The Cubs are 8th in the league in called strike 3s and 10th on a rate basis.  Teams ahead of them.  There are very good offensive teams high on the list (Minnesota) and very bad teams low on the list (Miami has the fewest by a decent margin).  

This is one of those things like not getting the runner in from 3rd that is just not nearly as uncommon and "only my team" as you think.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Cubs are 9th highest in Z-Swing, 17th highest in O-Swing, while being 12th in Swing % overall.  I don't see an easy way to break that down by count, but considering they're 19th in Ks and 9th in BBs I don't see any reason to think they're a big outlier.  I think the degree to which that gets noticed is due to 1) taken strike threes are way more memorable and 2) there's a league wide shift due to how much harder pitch recognition is with tunneling and how good pitchers are at inducing chase.

Last night Severino was dealing with great movement, command, and velocity. 

[LBiittner]

The yuengling add that has been surfacing here all morning reminded me how much I truly enjoy the lager, although I'm basically bourbon man.

GO CUBS

[jersey cubs fan]

This doesn’t register as a real issue to me. It’s a complaint I’ve heard for a couple decades now. What’s more of an issue is flawed roster building. Mediocre offensive players make enough outs for everybody to focus on their niche pet peeve. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

When I posted this thread, I fully expected there to be statistics that would indicate it isn't really an issue (or at least not strongly support the theory), and it didn't take long for that to happen!  I agree that it is probably an "all teams do this" thing more than a Cubs-specific issue, and likely a result of pitching being so good now that it is impossible for all but the best hitters to truly control the strike zone.

[We Got The Whole 9]

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Last night Severino was dealing with great movement, command, and velocity. 

Last night? He pitched 14 innings vs us this year and gave up 4 hits with 15:2 KBB. He absolutely mowed us down, as most pitchers who throw 95+ with good stuff do.

[mul21]

50 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Last night? He pitched 14 innings vs us this year and gave up 4 hits with 15:2 KBB. He absolutely mowed us down, as most pitchers who throw 95+ with good stuff do.

The 95+ part is really the big takeaway I have from this season.  I know that it's just harder to hit those pitches, but man is it a glaring deficiency with this team and there are only going to continue to be more of those guys at time goes on.

[Bertz]

51 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Last night? He pitched 14 innings vs us this year and gave up 4 hits with 15:2 KBB. He absolutely mowed us down, as most pitchers who throw 95+ with good stuff do.

I'm not sure what to make of this, but the Cubs are 20th in wOBA against 95+, and yet 7th in xwOBA.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm not sure what to make of this, but the Cubs are 20th in wOBA against 95+, and yet 7th in xwOBA.

I think we go back to the fly balls to center and opposite fields data and the answer lies there.

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think we go back to the fly balls to center and opposite fields data and the answer lies there.

I don't think it's just that, they're also underperforming pretty severely on just pulled balls (.376 actual. 413 expected).

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm absolutely shocked to see they have the 7th highest meatball swing%. Can you get more granular with that stat? Like what's the rate of those being pulled flyballs against league average, for instance?