Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-22-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Indianapolis, 6:05 pm
Tennessee vs. Mississippi, 6:00 pm
South Bend vs. Lake County, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Kannapolis, 6:00 pm
ACL Cubs at ACL Mariners. 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Red Sox Blue, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red vs DSL Rojos, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Riley Thompson (45.2 IP, 6.31 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 51 K, 22 BB)
Tennessee: RHP Brandon Birdsell (61.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 52 K, 13 BB)
South Bend: RHP Sam Armstrong (50.1 IP, 1.97 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 52 K, 14 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Juan Bello (43.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 50 K, 20 BB)

[Bertz]

It snuck up on me the season Birdsell is having given he started so slowly.  A 3.79 ERA isn't amazing in this year's Southern League but it's solid and he's trending up.  Probably an MLB depth option by this time next year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It snuck up on me the season Birdsell is having given he started so slowly.  A 3.79 ERA isn't amazing in this year's Southern League but it's solid and he's trending up.  Probably an MLB depth option by this time next year?

I always pay attention to his line and my unscientific opinion is he's one more adjustment from being a surprisingly good prospect.  He's stopped having disaster outings and the K's are clearly there, plus he's eating up significant innings relative to other prospects.  But he's too frequently getting barreled(e.g. 7+ hits over 5 IP, HR in bunches) in a way that makes me think there's a repertoire refinement that can get him over the hump.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

I assume at this point theyre just holding out to the draft when they need to clear spots at MB to promote him?  But he's ready to be promoted.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

41 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I assume at this point theyre just holding out to the draft when they need to clear spots at MB to promote him?  But he's ready to be promoted.

 

He has been having a rough week (this was his first hit of the week) so that was nice to see. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Followed by a dominant save from Hunter Bigge

I imagine it's not an accident Bigge's getting all the save opps right now, he's probably next man up once there's a natural opportunity to open a 40 man spot.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Followed by a dominant save from Hunter Bigge

I imagine it's not an accident Bigge's getting all the save opps right now, he's probably next man up once there's a natural opportunity to open a 40 man spot.

Hope it happens soon because he can definitely help the big league team right now and with his injury history, you never know when he might go down again.

It might have already happened if not for Ethan Roberts’ opt out. 

[craig]

What's info on Roberts?  I saw a note on different board that while he's been scoreless, that his velocity is way down.  But no idea how informed that is.  What do you guys know about his velocity in recent outings?  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, craig said:

What's info on Roberts?  I saw a note on different board that while he's been scoreless, that his velocity is way down.  But no idea how informed that is.  What do you guys know about his velocity in recent outings?  

Statcast has him between 90-92.  However, we've seen enough jumps in velocity from other promoted pitchers that I'm skeptical of the calibration with Iowa/AAA.  Also, Statcast is listing all of these as cutters, so there may be some intentional tradeoffs of the last tick or two for greater movement.

[craig]

Thanks!

[Bertz]

Yeah I think 3 things are going on with Roberts:

1. The velo is legitimately down a tick or two.  As TT points out he wouldn't be the first guy this year holding back some velo while at Iowa.

2. He's kind of a nightmare for the pitch classification systems.  Much like Justin Steele he's got a fastball that's on the border between a 4 seamer and a true cutter.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some of his harder sliders in the upper 80's are getting called cutters and pulling down his average "cutter" velo.

3.  This is tough to disentangle from #2, but it looks like he's getting more movement on his pitches.  '24 minors vs. '22 majors. It looks like

- His cutter has the same horizontal movement but another couple inches of drop

- His sweeper traded about two inches of drop for two more inches of horizontal movement

- His curve did the opposite, trading 4-5 inches of horizontal movement for 4-5 more of vertical

Those latter two probably don't have anything to do with his velo, but getting more distinction on his breaking balls is probably a good chunk of his current success.

.