Article: For One Night, At Least, a Whole New Javier Assad

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Chicago Cubs have nosed back over .500, thanks to a three-game winning streak on the heels of dropping the first two contests of their season. Their fifth starter gave them an encouraging first outing Tuesday night.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

One year ago Wednesday, I wrote about Javier Assad's pitch mix, as he tried to establish himself as a multi-inning (but fairly high-leverage) relief weapon for the Cubs. Specifically, I recommended that he lean considerably harder on his sinker and slider against right-handed batters, and on his four-seamer and changeup against left-handed ones. He was, at the time, a kitchen-sink guy, and it didn't seem likely to be a sustainably successful approach.

In one sense, I was demonstrably wrong. For the second year in a row, Assad was effective, despite less-than-dominant peripheral numbers. He entered 2024 with nearly 150 innings of big-league work under his belt, and a 3.06 ERA, despite a more pedestrian 4.34 FIP. His six-pitch mix--four-seamer, sinker, changeup, cutter, slider, curve--doesn't include any superior weapons, but he found ways to defy the regression monster all the way through his first full season.

To really keep that monster at bay, though, a player has to be proactive about adjustments. If you wait until the league figures you out to start making changes, you'll fall behind in the constant battle for an advantage. Thus, although we have to be careful not to extrapolate too much from a single (frigid) game's worth of data compiled against the execrable Rockies, it's worth taking note of some big changes Assad made in his 2024 debut Tuesday night.

Firstly, his pitch mix was drastically different. Here's how Assad's pitch usage broke down by handedness in 2023.

Batter Hand	BF	P	4Seam%	Sink2Seam%	Cutter%	Slider%	Curve%	Change%
Righty	274	1012	11.40%	40.40%	22.50%	25.00%	0.70%	0.00%
Lefty	239	948	30.00%	17.90%	32.00%	0.60%	10.80%	8.80%

Here's the same breakdown for Tuesday's 89-pitch effort.

Batter Hand	BF	P	4Seam%	Sink2Seam%	Cutter%	Slider%	Curve%	Change%
Righty	12	45	4.40%	42.20%	8.90%	42.20%	2.20%	0.00%
Lefty	10	44	50.00%	13.60%	18.20%	2.30%	4.50%	11.40%

This version of Assad is essentially the one I proposed last year, but as a starter. He went pretty much right after lefties with his fastball, and he dramatically increased his slider usage against righties, each at the expense of the cutter. It led to six scoreless innings in which he allowed just six baserunners and struck out five. Again, this is the Rockies, and it was a miserable night for baseball--especially if you were a hitter. We can't assume that what worked Tuesday will work going forward.

Still, this is a significant development. Going away from a kitchen-sink approach doesn't have to mean giving up the advantages Assad gleaned from his previous style. He can pitch with touch and feel even within this framework. To wit, if you cut his four-seamer samples for each of his three big-league seasons in half based on their horizontal movement, and then examine the movement patterns, he was getting more rising action on the half of his heaters that cut more (i,e., effectively creating a cut-ride look) last night than he had in either previous campaign: 17.5 inches of induced vertical break, compared to 16.0 inches in 2022 and 2023. He got a couple of called strikes in the up-and-away quadrant of the zone to lefties Tuesday, with the pitch virtually acting as a harder backdoor cutter, with less chance of a mistake in the heart of the zone. 

Assad also seems to have tweaked his slider, in addition to throwing it more often. The sample is too small to assume this will hold, but the slider had two more inches of sweep and a bit more depth Tuesday night than it had in 2022 and 2023. When you consider that it was also playing off more sinkers (as opposed to the cutter), that adjustment means hitters really have to feel like they're covering a plate about two feet wide. Miguel Amaya did well to steal Assad a couple of called strikes at the low, outside corner of the zone, making things even tougher on the helpless Colorado hitters.

I don't believe Assad can pitch to an ERA just over 3.00 again this year. If he's able to persist with these changes in pitch mix and movement using his excellent pitchability, though, I do think he can stay on the low side of 4.00. That would be a huge development for the Cubs, since they need him more acutely than expected in the early going. We're going to see at least another handful of Assad starts, and perhaps several more than that. We'll have plenty of chances to suss out how real his transformation is, but given what we've seen so far, it's fair to be a bit more optimistic than we expected to be.

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[Bertz]

Going back to August 1st of last year Javier Assad has mostly been a starter and put up a 4.17 xFIP.  The 2.62 ERA keeps getting people all gambler's fallacy-y but the evidence keeps piling up that he's a roughly average MLB starter.

[LBiittner]

This might sound dorky. Nevermind, scratch out might.

Javiar Assad reminds me of a young Rick Reuschel 1970's Cub. Before Rick really understood how to pitch. Maybe it's his romanesque stature. But I see a guy with a live arm who can throw a number types of pitches. And for whatever reason his general numbers look good.

Just being sentimental 

[CubinNY]

21 hours ago, LBiittner said:

This might sound dorky. Nevermind, scratch out might.

Javiar Assad reminds me of a young Rick Reuschel 1970's Cub. Before Rick really understood how to pitch. Maybe it's his romanesque stature. But I see a guy with a live arm who can throw a number types of pitches. And for whatever reason his general numbers look good.

Just being sentimental 

When Reuschel was with the Pirates he shut out the Cubs throwing only sinkers. Aside from Bartolo Colon he was one of the least athletic pitchers.

[Rcal10]

On 4/3/2024 at 7:08 AM, Bertz said:

Going back to August 1st of last year Javier Assad has mostly been a starter and put up a 4.17 xFIP.  The 2.62 ERA keeps getting people all gambler's fallacy-y but the evidence keeps piling up that he's a roughly average MLB starter.

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

[squally1313]

27 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

I don't know if there's a specific innings number. Do think something like his LOB%, which is 83.8%, implies a lot of sequencing luck that overrides some sort of FIP-beater status. Hendricks, the guy I think of as a classic FIP-beater, has a career 74.8% LOB% and the league average last year was 71.9%.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

When Reuschel was with the Pirates he shut out the Cubs throwing only sinkers. Aside from Bartolo Colon he was one of the least athletic pitchers.

I hated when they threw him away for Doug bird. Rick was "farm strong" lol. He was actually a decent hitter for a pitcher and was called on to pinch run.

I remember when he and Bonham came up, Bonham was the apple of the eye of management. But Bonham had no guts to throw inside pitches. Jose Cardenal really revealed how much Bonham was disliked in the clubhouse when he told the story of deliberately losing a ball in the lights when Bill was pitching because Bonham refused to protect hitters who were beaned. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if there's a specific innings number. Do think something like his LOB%, which is 83.8%, implies a lot of sequencing luck that overrides some sort of FIP-beater status. Hendricks, the guy I think of as a classic FIP-beater, has a career 74.8% LOB% and the league average last year was 71.9%.

Honestly, I don’t know. I agree he can’t live  on the edge like he has so far. But then again, his era with 83.8 LOB% is 2.82, as you pointed out. If it did drop to 74.8%, like Hendricks, would his era be closer to 3.50? Still better than the xFIP number. And, I am not arguing Assad, per se. I am asking a question as to when does his actual results dictate what a pitcher is, instead of his expected results. Hendricks is a perfect example. He has generally gotten better results than what he is expected

Baseball is so into dissecting everything, do they break a pitchers pitch down based on bases empty, man on, man in scoring position, etc? Is it possible some guys actually focus better with men on base. Some guys have a way of bearing down and making better pitches while others falter in tough spots? Is it maybe not just luck some guys can pitch out of jams better than others? Again, if they do it a long time(Hendricks) is it really luck? 

Again, this is not arguing. This is an honest question about when results should be used versus expected results. And I know it is too soon for Assad. 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

From reading various things from Dan Szymborski, it sounds like it's WAY more innings than you think before you can start trusting it.  Like 500+ innings. 

In this case too like Squally pointed out Assad's not actually generating soft contact, he's just stranding a bunch of guys on base.  So it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad is not one of those unicorns like Hendricks that can do this year in and year out.  Which is fine, even once his ERA catches up to his peripherals he's still very valuable.  No one better complain about a SP with a low 4's ERA making the league minimum that still has a couple minor league options.

[Rcal10]

51 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I hated when they threw him away for Doug bird. Rick was "farm strong" lol. He was actually a decent hitter for a pitcher and was called on to pinch run.

I remember when he and Bonham came up, Bonham was the apple of the eye of management. But Bonham had no guts to throw inside pitches. Jose Cardenal really revealed how much Bonham was disliked in the clubhouse when he told the story of deliberately losing a ball in the lights when Bill was pitching because Bonham refused to protect hitters who were beaned. 

I have to tell you biittner, I was around in those days and so not recall the Cardenal story. I also never thought Bonham was so liked my management and disliked by the team. Guess you were way more locked in to the team politics then I was back when w me were both early teenagers.

Edited April 4, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

From reading various things from Dan Szymborski, it sounds like it's WAY more innings than you think before you can start trusting it.  Like 500+ innings. 

In this case too like Squally pointed out Assad's not actually generating soft contact, he's just stranding a bunch of guys on base.  So it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad is not one of those unicorns like Hendricks that can do this year in and year out.  Which is fine, even once his ERA catches up to his peripherals he's still very valuable.  No one better complain about a SP with a low 4's ERA making the league minimum that still has a couple minor league options.

Its actually not way more innings than I thought. I was not making an arfuement for Assad. I was asking an honest question about when we can start to expect the results we are seeing are real. Thank you for answering that. Actually I would have guessed around that amount of innings. I also agree with you that even if he did eventually level into his xFIP he would still be a useful BOR starter. And if he outperforms even by 5-10% he is even a decent #4. 

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Honestly, I don’t know. I agree he can’t live  on the edge like he has so far. But then again, his era with 83.8 LOB% is 2.82, as you pointed out. If it did drop to 74.8%, like Hendricks, would his era be closer to 3.50? Still better than the xFIP number. And, I am not arguing Assad, per se. I am asking a question as to when does his actual results dictate what a pitcher is, instead of his expected results. Hendricks is a perfect example. He has generally gotten better results than what he is expected

I gave a college try into doing algebra on the LOB% formula (https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/lob/) and to try and solve for runs given a league average metric and gave up because laziness. A very rough comparison based on the three qualified pitchers last year with FIPs most similar to Assad (4.29):

• Dane Dunning, 4.27 FIP, 77.5% LOB%, 3.70 ERA
• Miles Mikolas, 4.27 FIP, 68.9% LOB%, 4.78 ERA
• Chris Bassitt, 4.28 FIP, 76.5% LOB%, 3.60 ERA

Conceptualizing the above, it makes sense I think. Dunning's LOB # is roughly 10% higher than Mikolas', given a WHIP of like 1.25 that mostly explains the variance in ERA. The one thing mentioned in that article is that high strikeout guys have shown a tendency to be LOB beaters, which Assad is definitely not. Then again, neither is/was Hendricks, but don't think Assad has his soft contact skills either. Probably talking about a few different things here at this point, no one expects him to be Hendricks and he almost definitely isn't Hendricks, but that's fine. 

[LBiittner]

49 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have to tell you biittner, I was around in those days and so not recall the Cardenal story. I also never thought Bonham was so liked my management and disliked by the team. Guess you were way more locked in to the team politics then I was back when w me were both early teenagers.

I ate up the cubs back then, lol still do. Manager Jim Marshall called out Bonham to get meaner as a pitcher, to no avail. Just wasn't in his makeup. Bonham had the yips throwing inside, every hitter knew they could lean in.

Bonham and Reuschel came up together, and the least looking athlete among the 2 turned in a near HOF career. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I gave a college try into doing algebra on the LOB% formula (https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/lob/) and to try and solve for runs given a league average metric and gave up because laziness. A very rough comparison based on the three qualified pitchers last year with FIPs most similar to Assad (4.29):

• Dane Dunning, 4.27 FIP, 77.5% LOB%, 3.70 ERA
• Miles Mikolas, 4.27 FIP, 68.9% LOB%, 4.78 ERA
• Chris Bassitt, 4.28 FIP, 76.5% LOB%, 3.60 ERA

Conceptualizing the above, it makes sense I think. Dunning's LOB # is roughly 10% higher than Mikolas', given a WHIP of like 1.25 that mostly explains the variance in ERA. The one thing mentioned in that article is that high strikeout guys have shown a tendency to be LOB beaters, which Assad is definitely not. Then again, neither is/was Hendricks, but don't think Assad has his soft contact skills either. Probably talking about a few different things here at this point, no one expects him to be Hendricks and he almost definitely isn't Hendricks, but that's fine. 

Thanks for the effort. Nicely done😀

Have to admit, I wouldn’t mind if he turned into someone like Dunning or Bassitt. Guess we can hope there is at least something to the art of pitching out of jams…..

But, bottom line is even at a low 4 era he is valuable as a low cost starting pitcher.