For One Night, At Least, a Whole New Javier Assad

Going back to August 1st of last year Javier Assad has mostly been a starter and put up a 4.17 xFIP.  The 2.62 ERA keeps getting people all gambler's fallacy-y but the evidence keeps piling up that he's a roughly average MLB starter.

This might sound dorky. Nevermind, scratch out might.

Javiar Assad reminds me of a young Rick Reuschel 1970's Cub. Before Rick really understood how to pitch. Maybe it's his romanesque stature. But I see a guy with a live arm who can throw a number types of pitches. And for whatever reason his general numbers look good.

Just being sentimental 

21 hours ago, LBiittner said:

This might sound dorky. Nevermind, scratch out might.

Javiar Assad reminds me of a young Rick Reuschel 1970's Cub. Before Rick really understood how to pitch. Maybe it's his romanesque stature. But I see a guy with a live arm who can throw a number types of pitches. And for whatever reason his general numbers look good.

Just being sentimental 

When Reuschel was with the Pirates he shut out the Cubs throwing only sinkers. Aside from Bartolo Colon he was one of the least athletic pitchers.

On 4/3/2024 at 7:08 AM, Bertz said:

Going back to August 1st of last year Javier Assad has mostly been a starter and put up a 4.17 xFIP.  The 2.62 ERA keeps getting people all gambler's fallacy-y but the evidence keeps piling up that he's a roughly average MLB starter.

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

27 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

I don't know if there's a specific innings number. Do think something like his LOB%, which is 83.8%, implies a lot of sequencing luck that overrides some sort of FIP-beater status. Hendricks, the guy I think of as a classic FIP-beater, has a career 74.8% LOB% and the league average last year was 71.9%.

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

When Reuschel was with the Pirates he shut out the Cubs throwing only sinkers. Aside from Bartolo Colon he was one of the least athletic pitchers.

I hated when they threw him away for Doug bird. Rick was "farm strong" lol. He was actually a decent hitter for a pitcher and was called on to pinch run.

I remember when he and Bonham came up, Bonham was the apple of the eye of management. But Bonham had no guts to throw inside pitches. Jose Cardenal really revealed how much Bonham was disliked in the clubhouse when he told the story of deliberately losing a ball in the lights when Bill was pitching because Bonham refused to protect hitters who were beaned. 

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if there's a specific innings number. Do think something like his LOB%, which is 83.8%, implies a lot of sequencing luck that overrides some sort of FIP-beater status. Hendricks, the guy I think of as a classic FIP-beater, has a career 74.8% LOB% and the league average last year was 71.9%.

Honestly, I don’t know. I agree he can’t live  on the edge like he has so far. But then again, his era with 83.8 LOB% is 2.82, as you pointed out. If it did drop to 74.8%, like Hendricks, would his era be closer to 3.50? Still better than the xFIP number. And, I am not arguing Assad, per se. I am asking a question as to when does his actual results dictate what a pitcher is, instead of his expected results. Hendricks is a perfect example. He has generally gotten better results than what he is expected

Baseball is so into dissecting everything, do they break a pitchers pitch down based on bases empty, man on, man in scoring position, etc? Is it possible some guys actually focus better with men on base. Some guys have a way of bearing down and making better pitches while others falter in tough spots? Is it maybe not just luck some guys can pitch out of jams better than others? Again, if they do it a long time(Hendricks) is it really luck? 

Again, this is not arguing. This is an honest question about when results should be used versus expected results. And I know it is too soon for Assad. 

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So how long does a guy have to post and era in the low to mid 3’s to actually be considered better than what xFIP suggest he is? Keep in mind, I know Assad hasn’t done anything long enough to justify suggesting what he has done so far is more luck than him actually being as good as he has been. I am just asking because it does seem some guys just get better actual results than expected results and I am curious when a player eventually gets judged on his actual results . 

From reading various things from Dan Szymborski, it sounds like it's WAY more innings than you think before you can start trusting it.  Like 500+ innings. 

In this case too like Squally pointed out Assad's not actually generating soft contact, he's just stranding a bunch of guys on base.  So it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad is not one of those unicorns like Hendricks that can do this year in and year out.  Which is fine, even once his ERA catches up to his peripherals he's still very valuable.  No one better complain about a SP with a low 4's ERA making the league minimum that still has a couple minor league options.

51 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I hated when they threw him away for Doug bird. Rick was "farm strong" lol. He was actually a decent hitter for a pitcher and was called on to pinch run.

I remember when he and Bonham came up, Bonham was the apple of the eye of management. But Bonham had no guts to throw inside pitches. Jose Cardenal really revealed how much Bonham was disliked in the clubhouse when he told the story of deliberately losing a ball in the lights when Bill was pitching because Bonham refused to protect hitters who were beaned. 

I have to tell you biittner, I was around in those days and so not recall the Cardenal story. I also never thought Bonham was so liked my management and disliked by the team. Guess you were way more locked in to the team politics then I was back when w me were both early teenagers.

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

From reading various things from Dan Szymborski, it sounds like it's WAY more innings than you think before you can start trusting it.  Like 500+ innings. 

In this case too like Squally pointed out Assad's not actually generating soft contact, he's just stranding a bunch of guys on base.  So it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad is not one of those unicorns like Hendricks that can do this year in and year out.  Which is fine, even once his ERA catches up to his peripherals he's still very valuable.  No one better complain about a SP with a low 4's ERA making the league minimum that still has a couple minor league options.

Its actually not way more innings than I thought. I was not making an arfuement for Assad. I was asking an honest question about when we can start to expect the results we are seeing are real. Thank you for answering that. Actually I would have guessed around that amount of innings. I also agree with you that even if he did eventually level into his xFIP he would still be a useful BOR starter. And if he outperforms even by 5-10% he is even a decent #4. 

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Honestly, I don’t know. I agree he can’t live  on the edge like he has so far. But then again, his era with 83.8 LOB% is 2.82, as you pointed out. If it did drop to 74.8%, like Hendricks, would his era be closer to 3.50? Still better than the xFIP number. And, I am not arguing Assad, per se. I am asking a question as to when does his actual results dictate what a pitcher is, instead of his expected results. Hendricks is a perfect example. He has generally gotten better results than what he is expected

I gave a college try into doing algebra on the LOB% formula (https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/lob/) and to try and solve for runs given a league average metric and gave up because laziness. A very rough comparison based on the three qualified pitchers last year with FIPs most similar to Assad (4.29):

• Dane Dunning, 4.27 FIP, 77.5% LOB%, 3.70 ERA
• Miles Mikolas, 4.27 FIP, 68.9% LOB%, 4.78 ERA
• Chris Bassitt, 4.28 FIP, 76.5% LOB%, 3.60 ERA

Conceptualizing the above, it makes sense I think. Dunning's LOB # is roughly 10% higher than Mikolas', given a WHIP of like 1.25 that mostly explains the variance in ERA. The one thing mentioned in that article is that high strikeout guys have shown a tendency to be LOB beaters, which Assad is definitely not. Then again, neither is/was Hendricks, but don't think Assad has his soft contact skills either. Probably talking about a few different things here at this point, no one expects him to be Hendricks and he almost definitely isn't Hendricks, but that's fine. 

49 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have to tell you biittner, I was around in those days and so not recall the Cardenal story. I also never thought Bonham was so liked my management and disliked by the team. Guess you were way more locked in to the team politics then I was back when w me were both early teenagers.

I ate up the cubs back then, lol still do. Manager Jim Marshall called out Bonham to get meaner as a pitcher, to no avail. Just wasn't in his makeup. Bonham had the yips throwing inside, every hitter knew they could lean in.

Bonham and Reuschel came up together, and the least looking athlete among the 2 turned in a near HOF career. 

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I gave a college try into doing algebra on the LOB% formula (https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/lob/) and to try and solve for runs given a league average metric and gave up because laziness. A very rough comparison based on the three qualified pitchers last year with FIPs most similar to Assad (4.29):

• Dane Dunning, 4.27 FIP, 77.5% LOB%, 3.70 ERA
• Miles Mikolas, 4.27 FIP, 68.9% LOB%, 4.78 ERA
• Chris Bassitt, 4.28 FIP, 76.5% LOB%, 3.60 ERA

Conceptualizing the above, it makes sense I think. Dunning's LOB # is roughly 10% higher than Mikolas', given a WHIP of like 1.25 that mostly explains the variance in ERA. The one thing mentioned in that article is that high strikeout guys have shown a tendency to be LOB beaters, which Assad is definitely not. Then again, neither is/was Hendricks, but don't think Assad has his soft contact skills either. Probably talking about a few different things here at this point, no one expects him to be Hendricks and he almost definitely isn't Hendricks, but that's fine. 

Thanks for the effort. Nicely done😀

Have to admit, I wouldn’t mind if he turned into someone like Dunning or Bassitt. Guess we can hope there is at least something to the art of pitching out of jams…..

But, bottom line is even at a low 4 era he is valuable as a low cost starting pitcher.