Article: Javier Assad is a Great Arm to Have, But the Cubs Badly Need Jordan Montgomery

[Matthew Trueblood]

We now know the starting rotation for the first week or two of the 2024 Chicago Cubs' season. Manager Craig Counsell made the right choices among his existing options, but the team needs a much better one.

Every team hopes to develop and retain a pitcher like Javier Assad. In his first 147 big-league innings, Assad has a 3.06 ERA, working in every role the modern game has dreamt up. Without elite stuff, he's generated tremendous results so far, including the ninth-best ERA among the 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2023. He doesn't pile up strikeouts, but he's great at forcing harmless contact, with lots of grounders and pop-ups and relatively few line drives coming off opponents' bats.

Those are the reasons why Counsell and company elected to give Assad the fifth and final spot in the team's starting rotation to open the season, with Jameson Taillon shelved by back problems for the short term. Assad has an ERA of 7.00 this spring, but Drew Smyly's is even worse, and Hayden Wesneski has done nothing to change the minds of those who mentally moved him to the reliever column after his uneven 2023 and struggles against opposite-handed batters. Assad has a deep pitch mix, the deep respect of his teammates, and a recent track record of being a good starter in the big leagues. No one else they have in camp checks all those boxes.

Crucially, though, a player who checks them all much more forcefully is available. J.D. Martinez and Blake Snell have each signed elsewhere, but one more Scott Boras domino has yet to fall: Jordan Montgomery, the workhorse lefty stranded on the free-agent market and looking likely to sign after the season begins so as to be ineligible for the qualifying offer this fall. Montgomery doesn't have exceptional strikeout rates, either, but that's the only knock against him, and it's a weak one. He doesn't walk hitters, doesn't give up much hard contact in his own right, and doesn't miss turns in the rotation.

Last year, between the regular season and the postseason, Montgomery threw roughly 210 innings. The reason why the Cubs lag the Cardinals in the NL Central projected standings at Baseball Prospectus is that the site's PECOTA projection system views their pitching staff as below-average. Their projected DRA- (adjusted Deserved Run Average, where 100 is average and lower is better) is 102. Montgomery is projected for a 93 DRA- this season; Assad's is 106 and Smyly's is 102.

Though it would probably push them up to the line of the second competitive-balance tax threshold, and could even nudge them past it, the Cubs should sign Montgomery. If it's still possible to get him on a medium- or long-term deal, in order to lower the annual average value and stay below that second threshold, they should do that. Letting Snell and Martinez sign with NL rivals at the prices they ultimately commanded was a huge missed opportunity; Jed Hoyer can make up for it by reeling in Montgomery to complete his offseason.

Unless and until Taillon returns, Montgomery could slot into Assad's designated starting slot, freeing up the young righthander to piggyback with Jordan Wicks and to work in other long relief situations. He'd instantly upgrade the team's starting mix and stabilize the shakiest unit on the team. When Taillon does come back, the Cubs needn't jettison Wicks or anyone else. They can just flex out to a six-man starting rotation, something they quietly did for short stretches last year and that Counsell did for an entire season in 2021, with the Brewers.

We don't have publicly available Statcast data on Assad's spring. It's possible he's worked on things to mitigate the high walk rate he's posted in his big-league career and/or to miss more bats, but it's hard to evaluate that from outside the organization. He's looked like the same guy on video, which is no insult, given the success he's had in his young career, but it means that he'll continue to be vulnerable in the same ways he has been so far--and that means his good luck could run out relatively soon. Despite the costs involved, the Cubs need to sign Montgomery and commit themselves more seriously to winning in 2024. Assad can contribute plenty without being locked into a starting role, and if they haven't upgraded their depth when worse injuries than Taillon's balky back spring up later this year, the team will regret it.

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[Bertz]

Given where we are on the calendar, how confident are we that Montgomery would actually outperform Assad if you slotted him into the rotation right now?  The track record of guys signing super late is not great and I think that needs to be in the back of your mind in any recommendation like this.

The projections have Montgomery like half a run better than Assad, a pretty sizable gap.  But in practice now you should probably assume a smaller gap than the on-paper one.  And if Assad is bad, you simply swap him out for another one of our optionable depth SPs.  If you sign Montgomery to a medium to long term deal, you've got to ride it out if he struggles out of the gate.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Given where we are on the calendar, how confident are we that Montgomery would actually outperform Assad if you slotted him into the rotation right now?  The track record of guys signing super late is not great and I think that needs to be in the back of your mind in any recommendation like this.

The projections have Montgomery like half a run better than Assad, a pretty sizable gap.  But in practice now you should probably assume a smaller gap than the on-paper one.  And if Assad is bad, you simply swap him out for another one of our optionable depth SPs.  If you sign Montgomery to a medium to long term deal, you've got to ride it out if he struggles out of the gate.

Yes exactly.  Montgomery has been a bit overrated this offseason and now his lack of season prep compounds the issue.  I would rather not be tying significant dollars up in a multi year deal with him.  And on a one year deal, you’re probably better off using resources at the deadline since Montgomery vs the incumbents in the first half is a very tight decision.

[Stratos]

Eager for an average pitcher like Taillon to get healthy in order to replace an average pitcher like Assad in the rotation to join average pitchers like Hendricks and Wicks.  Why sign Montgomery when there's Smyly and Wesneski bumping around?  Fans like the longball so does it really matter if it's the opponents who are hitting them?

[BigbadB]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Eager for an average pitcher like Taillon to get healthy in order to replace an average pitcher like Assad in the rotation to join average pitchers like Hendricks and Wicks.  Why sign Montgomery when there's Smyly and Wesneski bumping around?  Fans like the longball so does it really matter if it's the opponents who are hitting them?

The Cubs are going with Assad, the guy with an ERA of 3.05 in 109 innings pitched last year. What teams in the major leagues had better stats than that from their backup 5th starter? I feel like they have good enough pitching to go into the season, and then save whatever money they have left below that tax threshold for improvements to the roster at the trade deadline to gear up for a playoff run. They have the talent in the minors to get cheaper arms or bats than what Montgomery will cost, and they wouldn't need to be one year rentals.

 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, BigbadB said:

The Cubs are going with Assad, the guy with an ERA of 3.05 in 109 innings pitched last year. What teams in the major leagues had better stats than that from their backup 5th starter? I feel like they have good enough pitching to go into the season, and then save whatever money they have left below that tax threshold for improvements to the roster at the trade deadline to gear up for a playoff run. They have the talent in the minors to get cheaper arms or bats than what Montgomery will cost, and they wouldn't need to be one year rentals.

 

I like Assad, he doesn't throw anything straight and he came up clutch with us last year a bunch.   He's projected for a 4 30 ERA and doesn't K a lot of guys, but maybe his stuff plays up a bit.   Who knows.   Let's hope he just hasn't been lucky.