Article: Grading Jed Hoyer's Offseason, Move By Move and as a Whole

[Jacob Zanolla]

Jed Hoyer hibernated for most of the winter, becoming the basis for memes and an object of ridicule. When he finally woke up from his slumbers, Cubs fans rejoiced. Hoyer's reputation is that he always gets good value. Was this the case in 2024? With the offseason most likely over for the Cubs, let’s look back at the moves that were made.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Things didn't start slowly. On the contrary, the Cubs made huge news almost immediately after the end of the World Series.

Craig Counsell: 5 years, $40 Million
We know that Jed Hoyer does deals in the dark, and lets minimal information leak before an agreement is made. While he showed this multiple times throughout the offseason, no transaction was a better example than the Counsell acquisition. There was a growing belief that Counsell would be leaving the Brewers, but the Cubs were not considered a contender for his services. Hoyer proved everyone wrong, making Counsell the highest-paid manager in all of baseball. It was clear last season that David Ross was not the answer. The fans knew it, and apparently, the front office did, too. Hoyer made it clear that this wasn’t a dig at Ross, but rather that a better option became available. Telling only a few select people, Hoyer got the go-ahead from Tom Ricketts to spend big money (by manager standards) on Counsell. He’s considered one of the best managers in baseball, constantly getting the most value out of his players. I will very confidently say that if Counsell was in charge instead of Ross last year, the Cubs would have made the playoffs. We will never know for sure, but he's a game-changer for the coming season. 

Grade: A+
Hoyer earned one A+ this offseason, and it is without a doubt the hiring of Counsell. As I said above, no one expected it, but everyone understood it. This season is going to be fun, and Counsell is a huge asset. 

Trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers: Michael Busch and Yency Almonte for Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope
Let's start by breaking down the price Hoyer paid in his one major trade of the winter. The main piece Chicago gave away was lefthander Jackson Ferris, who is now the eighth-best prospect for the Dodgers. Ferris has tantalizing potential, but he's years away. So is Hope. Hoyer saw an opportunity to improve now, so he took it. Ferris is only 20 years old, with FanGraphs having his ETA to reach the majors in 2027. He was someone who a lot of fans didn’t want to lose, but clearly the linchpin of the swap for Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers. 

Zyhir Hope was sent to LA as well, although he was by no means the focus of the trade. A 19-year-old outfielder, he is projected to be called up in 2027 as well. The Dodgers have a lot of talent to take the field now, but Hope gives them more depth in their farm, and promise for the future. 

What was the return?

Originally, when the trade news leaked, all the public knew to be involved was Yency Almonte. After Busch then became part of the conversation, you knew the Cubs would be giving up at least one player of high value. Busch is currently the 51st-best prospect in all of baseball and the fourth-best in the Cubs system per MLB Pipeline. He will start in the majors right away, most likely being the Opening Day first baseman for Craig Counsell. He’s done well in Spring Training, hitting two home runs for an .869 OPS. He tried stretching into a second or third baseman when he first entered pro ball, but that seems to have been scrapped when the Cubs landed him.

He raked in the minors last year, posting a 1.049 OPS with a .323 average. Even though he didn’t produce in his short stint with the Dodgers, I expect him to put up strong numbers in his first full major-league season. Busch being left-handed also lends versatility handedness-wise, joining Cody Bellinger as a lefty power hitter hoping to hit bombs onto Sheffield. 

Almonte was the second player coming to Chicago. He’ll join a Cubs bullpen that needs help, especially after its collapse at the end of 2023. He had a really rough year in 2023, with a 5.06 ERA and 4.59 FIP. However, Almonte was a force in 2022, although his expected numbers were a bit worse than his actual statistics. Receiving him from Los Angeles adds a fresh face in the bullpen for Tommy Hottovy, one that comes with a ton of upside. 

Grade: B
I like this trade. I was pleased with Almonte as a target, and ecstatic with getting Busch. The Cubs needed someone for the corner infield positions, and Busch fits perfectly. Giving up Ferris hurt, but this was a win-now type of move. As I mentioned above, Ferris won’t be ready for a few years. Busch can provide immediate impact, which helps the team succeed soon. 

Shota Imanaga–It’s complicated
The Imanaga deal is very complex. It’s a four-year deal, worth $53 Million. After the second and third years, the Cubs can pick up a fifth-year option, which if they choose to exercise adds a fifth year and gives Imanaga a chance to earn a total of $80 Million. If Hoyer declines the option after either the second or third year, Imanaga can opt out. He already has limited no-trade rights, and would gain a full no-trade clause if the option is exercised.

This was a perfect deal for the Cubs. Chicago has been a possible landing spot for Imanaga all offseason, although I didn’t think there was a real chance they would land him. After he signed, we learned that he had been in Chicago for a few weeks, making that his home base for free agency. Brave of him to choose Chicago in January, as this was right before a massive snowstorm shut down travel and hurt plans for the Cubs Convention. It’s even more impressive that Jed and company were able to convince him to stay in Chicago, explaining that it wouldn’t always be negative 20 degrees with snow and ice everywhere. Jokes aside, it was clear that Imanaga was very interested in the Cubs. 

This deal works for both sides. If he shoves, and is worth keeping, the Cubs can exercise the option and lock him in for an extra year. If he gets hurt or his strikeout stuff doesn't translate in his move to this side of the Pacific, they can decline and only have him for four years. He would then have the option to opt out, but that wouldn’t make much sense. If the Cubs don’t pay him that money, I’m not so sure another team would. 

Imanaga has already done very well this Spring Training. We knew the home run would be an issue, as we saw in his Cubs debut (Spring Training wise) as he gave up a long home run almost right away. However, strikeouts are also a big part of his game. In only 9 2/3 innings so far, he already has 19 strikeouts–good for an abnormal 46.3% strikeout rate. Spencer Strider and Ryan Weathers have a few more strikeouts but have also thrown quite a few more innings. 

Overall Grade: A
The tough part with grading these is that the season hasn’t started yet. There is a reality where he doesn’t pitch well at all, and the Cubs overpaid. For now, he’s been just fine. Reports estimated he would get around $90 Million, with the possibility of earning north of $100 Million. Clearly, this didn’t happen. Other teams, most notably the Pittsburgh Pirates, were willing to pay him way more money. As a Cubs fan, this is neat, because it shows us that he wanted to play for the Cubs. No one expected him to sign for so little, meaning Hoyer shocked the league, again. He's always waiting for value, and he got what looks like an absolute steal to help his rotation. 

Héctor Neris: 1 year, $9 Million
This was a signing I wasn’t expecting, but it makes a ton of sense. Neris was elite in 2023, appearing in 68.1 innings with a 1.71 ERA. His 28% hard-hit rate was one of the lowest in baseball, and was reinforced by an expected batting average of .196. The Cubs needed bullpen help. There were a few locks to be heavily used in the 2023 season, but there were also a lot of question marks. Neris not only provides a lot of talent but also brings a much-needed veteran presence to the bullpen. With one World Series championship under his belt (2022), he is entering his 10th year in baseball.

Overall Grade: A-
He’s 34 years old, which does create some concern injury-wise. The deal is very friendly, only costing the team $9 Million in 2023. There is a $9 Million club option for 2025, which will convert into a player option if Neris appears in 60 games or more. If Neris does appear in 60 games or more, the Cubs would be pleased; that would mean he performed well for them. 

Cody Bellinger: 3 Years, $80 Million
There were rumors all winter that Bellinger would end up back in Chicago, and that’s exactly what happened. After a long holdout with Scott Boras, a deal was finally agreed upon. In the end, it was a fantastic deal for the team. Bellinger had weak batted-ball profiles, but the stats were incredible. Paired with Dustin Kelly, we saw Bellinger return to his MVP-level form. I don’t think this was a one-year thing, but there are many skeptics throughout Cubs fandom. Bringing him back not only helps the team statistically, but morale-wise as well. Bellinger was a clubhouse favorite, and many players advocated for his return throughout the offseason. With Bellinger back, there is no need to rush Pete Crow-Armstrong to the majors, giving him more time to develop. When you look at the leaderboards for hitters with two-strike counts, Cody Bellinger is near the top. He was fantastic at making contact and staying away from the strikeouts. He had a 15.6% strikeout rate, 87th percentile in all of baseball. This was a 12% decrease from his 2022 season, which leads me to believe that a change of scenery helped him feel more comfortable. 

Overall Grade: A
This was about as perfect a deal as Hoyer was going to get. The first two years are worth $30 million each, with the third year at $20 Million. A big worry among Cubs fans was that Bellinger would be signed for seven or eight years, something we know the Cubs try to avoid. Instead, Bellinger agreed to a deal that is right in the front office’s wheelhouse: short-term, with multiple opt-outs (and of course a high average annual value (AAV)). If Bellinger plays like he did in 2023, this is a positive for both sides. The Cubs get another amazing year production-wise, which will translate to a lot of wins on the diamond. Bellinger, on the other hand, can opt out and earn even more money after showing that 2023 wasn’t a fluke. If for some reason Bellinger is not good, and last year was a fluke, the Cubs only have him for two more years. This isn’t like a Jason Heyward deal, where he was bad but stayed under contract for the next several years. This one is low-risk, but also offers a very high potential reward. 

Overall Offseason Grade: B-
Overall, I would say the Cubs had a good offseason. Sure, we could focus on what Hoyer didn’t do. He didn’t sign someone like Shohei Ohtani, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or trade for Juan Soto. However, he added an arm to the rotation–one with high upside. He helped the bullpen with Almonte and Neris. He got Busch to play first base, solidifying the infield. And last but not least, he brought back Cody Bellinger. If you say he had a disappointing offseason, I get that. However, I’m choosing to believe they are saving for next offseason, when the free agent pool is massive. Scott Boras represents most of the big targets for next winter, but we’ll ignore that for now. The reason I put it at B- is because a C is too harsh, but a B+ seems too kind.

When I step back and look at the offseason as a whole, it wasn’t too bad. A little average, sure. Way more waiting than we had wanted? Yes, very much so. The main positive takeaway that I have is that, while our team may not have significantly improved, I don’t think they got any worse. On paper, this was a team that should have won close to 90 games in 2023 (they had 92 Pythagorean wins!). Many things went wrong, including the pitching management, poor bullpen outings, and lack of clutch hitting–those are just a few examples. The September 2023 Cubs were brutal to watch. That’s the reason I am optimistic about this upcoming season: because with Craig Counsell, those extra wins might materialize this time. If the team “should have” won 92 games last season, how much do Counsell and Imanaga help? There are so many factors that go into a winning ballclub, which makes it all very hard to predict. Hoyer knows this, but I think he put the club in a decent position to at least win the NL Central. He missed on a few names I would have loved to see put on the pinstripes come Opening Day, but he stuck to his values and made sure to not spend over the market value. Is it Jed’s league? I guess we’ll find out.

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[painhertz]

What? (A+  + B - +A- + A + A)/5 = B-?   (95+80+90+92+92)/5 = 89.8.  Rounds up to A-    You should catch up on your basic math.

[Guest234]

7 minutes ago, painhertz said:

What? (A+  + B - +A- + A + A)/5 = B-?   (95+80+90+92+92)/5 = 89.8.  Rounds up to A-    You should catch up on your basic math.

 

[Guest234]

This is why grades are not assigned as percentages - allows some nuance that cannot be quantified.

[Bertz]

I think, now knowing that the luxury tax was more or less a soft cap, it's hard to quibble too much with Jed's offseason.  Jed added nearly 10 wins all at positions of need with less than $60M in 2024 salary (and reasonable future commitments too).  That's quite frankly a homerun?  Jed could have traded some prospect depth for a 3B or another SP but overall feels like Jed did his job and quite well.

Now the Cubs' offseason you could call a B- or frankly worse.  There was clear opportunity to add more impactful talent and there *should* have been a lot more resources at Jed's disposal.  But that blame lies at Tom's feet IMO.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think, now knowing that the luxury tax was more or less a soft cap, it's hard to quibble too much with Jed's offseason.  Jed added nearly 10 wins all at positions of need with less than $60M in 2024 salary (and reasonable future commitments too).  That's quite frankly a homerun?  Jed could have traded some prospect depth for a 3B or another SP but overall feels like Jed did his job and quite well.

Now the Cubs' offseason you could call a B- or frankly worse.  There was clear opportunity to add more impactful talent and there *should* have been a lot more resources at Jed's disposal.  But that blame lies at Tom's feet IMO.

I am with you on this. All deals taken in their own were very good. He loses a little in his grade because he didn’t do as much as many fans wanted. But, as you said, I blame Ricketts for that more than Hoyer. If the Cubs could have spend maybe even $10M more signing Belt instead of trying guys like Cooper, Peralta and Smith would have made for a B+ off season IMO. 

[JBears79]

I'm extremely happy with how the offseason turned out after the initial disappointment. B+ for me

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I'm extremely happy with how the offseason turned out after the initial disappointment. B+ for me

When you factor in the soft cap the Cubs were working with, I completely agree with you. All his signings and the trade he made make sense. But coming in I think most wanted a little more and wanted the Cubs to stretch the payroll a bit. It is a self imposed ceiling. That is the reason for a little lower grade, IMO. Had they signed one more bat, whether it be Belt of even JDM and were comfortable with a $250M budget it would have been a very good, B+ even A, off season. 
Really there should be 2 grades. Hoyer/Hawkins get a B+ /A for working well with what their budget was.
And B- for the FO/ownership for having a decent off season but not taking advantage of a weaker division by spending a little more to be a clear favorite in the division. Using the first line of LT was not necessary for this team. That is the only complaint of the off season, for me. 

[Guest234]

The budget rule is spend what you bring in but do not bite into the family money earned in other enterprises (Poppa Joe's money). 

[Bull]

21 hours ago, painhertz said:

What? (A+  + B - +A- + A + A)/5 = B-?   (95+80+90+92+92)/5 = 89.8.  Rounds up to A-    You should catch up on your basic math.

As an educator, I can tell you a zero really brings a grade down fast.

A+ + B- + A- + A + A + zero/6 leaves you with a B- or less.

(95+80+90+92+92+0)/6 = 74. A solid C. Author is being generous.

The author is saying what was done was good, but the student didn't complete all their work. You need to catch up on your basic math.

Can we please stop being obtuse now?

Edited March 22, 2024 by Bull

[Tim]

15 minutes ago, Bull said:

As an educator, I can tell you a zero really brings a grade down fast.

A+ + B- + A- + A + A + zero/6 leaves you with a B- or less.

(95+80+90+92+92+0)/6 = 74. A solid C. Author is being generous.

The author is saying what was done was good, but the student didn't complete all their work. You need to catch up on your basic math.

Can we please stop being obtuse now?

Why are you so angry? Also, saying Jed didn't complete all his work without specifying what else should have been done within his constraints is not "completing all your work".

[Bull]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

Why are you so angry? Also, saying Jed didn't complete all his work without specifying what else should have been done within his constraints is not "completing all your work".

Not angry. The previous poster was being obnoxious. I (perhaps unwisely) responded in kind.

[Jacob Zanolla]

On 3/22/2024 at 8:24 AM, Bull said:

As an educator, I can tell you a zero really brings a grade down fast.

A+ + B- + A- + A + A + zero/6 leaves you with a B- or less.

(95+80+90+92+92+0)/6 = 74. A solid C. Author is being generous.

The author is saying what was done was good, but the student didn't complete all their work. You need to catch up on your basic math.

Can we please stop being obtuse now?

I didn't use a precise grading scale to give the overall grade. While I didn't write about every move, I am a fan of the Cooper signing. That helped bump it up a little. Another thing I liked is that he stayed away from a few players which we could have acquired, therefore bumping the grade up a little more. 

[PeanutPunch33]

I'm thrilled that Assad and Wicks are getting a chance.. maybe I just have a misguided or unrealistic view of these guys but, I see 1 future all-star between these 2 and the other will be a reliable big-leaguer, probably out of the bullpen or a bottom of rotation starter.  Jed is such a good GM.  

[Stratos]

Ricketts gets a D

Hoyer gets an A. 

Nervous about the Hendricks regression.  Busch has power but his movements are pretty stiff including the swing which seems slow/late at times, not convinced he has the hit tool to hit for good AVG and I think the K% with be well above AVG, but we'll see.  If Ricketts gave Hoyer more money he could have cleaned up with the discounts on Chapman/Snell/Montgomery types.

[Bull]

19 hours ago, Jacob Zanolla said:

I didn't use a precise grading scale to give the overall grade. While I didn't write about every move, I am a fan of the Cooper signing. That helped bump it up a little. Another thing I liked is that he stayed away from a few players which we could have acquired, therefore bumping the grade up a little more. 

Oh I know. I was being obtuse. I was responding to a poster who was being critical. It was a good article.