Is it time to trade Bellinger?

[squally1313]

There are some insane arguments being made there in search of a pre-determined conclusion. The Phillies were elite, but then they couldn't hit. The Dodgers are elite, but then they got (uniquely, I guess) depleted. Arizona only made it because the Cubs collapsed (which is...an argument against the Cubs trying to make the playoffs?). Pointing to 6 games, where they went 3-3 total, but ignoring that and just looking at the vibes of it all to write off a season. Like....just don't watch, man. Sure, they might keep sucking. I don't know why we're so excited to make that more likely to happen. The Cubs got the best hitter traded last year for DJ Herz (2 starts for Washington, 6.50 ERA, has a walk rate above 5 at every single level dating back to high A in 2022) and Kevin Made (like 300 PAs in high A hitting .200 with zero home runs). God forbid we give up guys like that again in search of playing meaningful baseball the rest of the year. 

[chibears55]

Problem is, the Cubs need to start making moves now, they can't afford to wait until mid July or the deadline to make significant moves because by then it'll likely be too late to recover from the hole they're buried in if they continue to blow away games.

Then there's the question of will Rickett go above the Threshold to add those significant players as they are currently just 4 mil below it.

They also need to move players like Madrigal and Mastrobuoni off the 40 so they can add and bring up kids that can help now.

 

So, yes they can turn things around but they need to get that process started sooner rather then later before it may be too late.

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Problem is, the Cubs need to start making moves now, they can't afford to wait until mid July or the deadline to make significant moves because by then it'll likely be too late to recover from the hole they're buried in if they continue to blow away games.

Then there's the question of will Rickett go above the Threshold to add those significant players as they are currently just 4 mil below it.

They also need to move players like Madrigal and Mastrobuoni off the 40 so they can add and bring up kids that can help now.

 

So, yes they can turn things around but they need to get that process started sooner rather then later before it may be too late.

You can't qualify an absolute 'need' with 'if they continue to blow away games'. That's not something we can or should assume will continue happening. We shouldn't assume they're going to go back to their 17-9 or whatever start either, safest bet is somewhere in the middle (or cumulative performance), which has put them in the giant mess of teams within 1 game of a playoff spot. None of those other teams have made any substantial moves either. I can totally buy an argument for jumping the market, but big picture this is just how these things usually work.

As for the kids, as curious as I am about them, where do they go? Davis and Canario are already on the 40 man, so I assume you're talking Caissie? BJ Murray and his .646 OPS don't inspire a lot of confidence, I don't know if Matt Shaw's 114 wRC at AA warrants jumping to Wrigley. So you have three outfielders/first basemen trying to get consistent ABs among Busch (136 wRC last 30), Suzuki (130 wRC last 30), Happ (118 wRC last 30), Bellinger (107 wRC last 30), PCA (gross offensively but still a positive producer and also very much a 'kid'), Tauchman (bad in his last 30 but very obviously in the circle of trust)....take DH PAs from Morel? Wisdom's 2 starts a week? Hoerner has been bad, the catchers have been historically bad, the bullpen has been awful. There aren't any clear fixes for those in Iowa. 

 

[mul21]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hoerner has been bad, the catchers have been historically bad, the bullpen has been awful. There aren't any clear fixes for those in Iowa. 

 

I think there actually are some pen arms in Iowa that could help but none are on the 40 man, meaning cutting bait with Madrigal and Mastro is necessary.  At this point, I'm all for that.

[squally1313]

30 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think there actually are some pen arms in Iowa that could help but none are on the 40 man, meaning cutting bait with Madrigal and Mastro is necessary.  At this point, I'm all for that.

Am I missing someone here? Hodge, Thompson, Palencia, and Cuas are already on the 40. Which of these dudes screams 'I will fix the bullpens tendency to walk 2 guys and/or give up a bomb'? Ethan Roberts and his 6 walks in his first 9 innings of MILB work in the last 2 years? Brad Wieck?

You're going to have to, most likely, raid the bullpen of one of the 6 terrible major league teams if you want to try and fix this outside of normal regression to the mean. And, again, definitely see the argument there. But the venn diagram of contending teams and teams who could use a high leverage reliever is just a circle, and the number of high leverage relievers traded so far this year is essentially zero, unless you want to expand that definition, in which case it probably includes Tyson Miller. 

 

[chibears55]

38 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You can't qualify an absolute 'need' with 'if they continue to blow away games'. That's not something we can or should assume will continue happening. We shouldn't assume they're going to go back to their 17-9 or whatever start either, safest bet is somewhere in the middle (or cumulative performance), which has put them in the giant mess of teams within 1 game of a playoff spot. None of those other teams have made any substantial moves either. I can totally buy an argument for jumping the market, but big picture this is just how these things usually work.

As for the kids, as curious as I am about them, where do they go? Davis and Canario are already on the 40 man, so I assume you're talking Caissie? BJ Murray and his .646 OPS don't inspire a lot of confidence, I don't know if Matt Shaw's 114 wRC at AA warrants jumping to Wrigley. So you have three outfielders/first basemen trying to get consistent ABs among Busch (136 wRC last 30), Suzuki (130 wRC last 30), Happ (118 wRC last 30), Bellinger (107 wRC last 30), PCA (gross offensively but still a positive producer and also very much a 'kid'), Tauchman (bad in his last 30 but very obviously in the circle of trust)....take DH PAs from Morel? Wisdom's 2 starts a week? Hoerner has been bad, the catchers have been historically bad, the bullpen has been awful. There aren't any clear fixes for those in Iowa. 

 

Doesn't just have to be bats added to the 40, could be pen arms. Edwards has pitched well enough in Iowa, he has earned a shot.

Blow games, lose games they can't afford to fall too many more games behind between now and the deadline.

They're 3 games under and 8 back of the Brewers, so any hopes in catching the Brewers are slowly fading.

As for a WC spot, Braves and Padres will likely add and get even better and tougher to catch.

So, are they just gonna sit until mid July or so and hope to stay relevant enough to make some bandade moves for that last WC spot ? 

[LBiittner]

43 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think there actually are some pen arms in Iowa that could help but none are on the 40 man, meaning cutting bait with Madrigal and Mastro is necessary.  At this point, I'm all for that.

I don't understand all the rules. Can a team release an injured player from the 40?

[mul21]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Am I missing someone here? Hodge, Thompson, Palencia, and Cuas are already on the 40. Which of these dudes screams 'I will fix the bullpens tendency to walk 2 guys and/or give up a bomb'? Ethan Roberts and his 6 walks in his first 9 innings of MILB work in the last 2 years? Brad Wieck?

You're going to have to, most likely, raid the bullpen of one of the 6 terrible major league teams if you want to try and fix this outside of normal regression to the mean. And, again, definitely see the argument there. But the venn diagram of contending teams and teams who could use a high leverage reliever is just a circle, and the number of high leverage relievers traded so far this year is essentially zero, unless you want to expand that definition, in which case it probably includes Tyson Miller. 

 

I think Carl and Roberts are the logical candidates.  Not necessarily a solution, but you have to try something right?

[mul21]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I don't understand all the rules. Can a team release an injured player from the 40?

No idea.  There would probably have to be an injury settlement, but in the meantime they can transfer him to the 60 day IL to clear a spot.  It's going to be that long before he's back anyway.

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Doesn't just have to be bats added to the 40, could be pen arms. Edwards has pitched well enough in Iowa, he has earned a shot.

Blow games, lose games they can't afford to fall too many more games behind between now and the deadline.

They're 3 games under and 8 back of the Brewers, so any hopes in catching the Brewers are slowly fading.

As for a WC spot, Braves and Padres will likely add and get even better and tougher to catch.

So, are they just gonna sit until mid July or so and hope to stay relevant enough to make some bandade moves for that last WC spot ? 

The trouble with this idea is that none of the pen arms your mentioning in the minors is any better than the middle relief pitching they currently have on the team. So cut Mastrobuoni and then bring up Edwards. So send down Little? Does that really matter? You are replacing one iffy middle relief pitcher with another one. The cubs don’t need random pen arms. They have enough of them. They need a closer, period. Then everyone moves down a spot. Kind of what the Dbacks did with Sewald last year. Brought him in and everyone moved down. 

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think Carl and Roberts are the logical candidates.  Not necessarily a solution, but you have to try something right?

Do you? Little and Hayden are the only two with options available. Wesneski has a 2.70 ERA, a FIP in the 3s, can go multiple innings, etc. He's clearly better than those options. Little is overall bad, but is death on lefties...which may not be a relevant skill set with Leiter and Smyly around, so sure, I guess? Edwards and Roberts haven't shown an ability to throw strikes to AAA hitters, can't imagine they would solve that in the majors. 

You can cut Hendricks, but if they were going to do that they would have by now, they certainly aren't going to do it for a short reliever that would be like 6th on the depth chart. He's here till he gets his 10 years barring a trade or some weird, everyone is healthy development You can cut Smyly, but you'll have a hard time convincing me either of those dudes would be better than him as a reliever.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Do you? Little and Hayden are the only two with options available. Wesneski has a 2.70 ERA, a FIP in the 3s, can go multiple innings, etc. He's clearly better than those options. Little is overall bad, but is death on lefties...which may not be a relevant skill set with Leiter and Smyly around, so sure, I guess? Edwards and Roberts haven't shown an ability to throw strikes to AAA hitters, can't imagine they would solve that in the majors. 

You can cut Hendricks, but if they were going to do that they would have by now, they certainly aren't going to do it for a short reliever that would be like 6th on the depth chart. He's here till he gets his 10 years barring a trade or some weird, everyone is healthy development You can cut Smyly, but you'll have a hard time convincing me either of those dudes would be better than him as a reliever.

Wow! I was writing the same thing and the site froze. When I came back I saw your post. I agree. 

[chibears55]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The trouble with this idea is that none of the pen arms your mentioning in the minors is any better than the middle relief pitching they currently have on the team. So cut Mastrobuoni and then bring up Edwards. So send down Little? Does that really matter? You are replacing one iffy middle relief pitcher with another one. The cubs don’t need random pen arms. They have enough of them. They need a closer, period. Then everyone moves down a spot. Kind of what the Dbacks did with Sewald last year. Brought him in and everyone moved down. 

Staying status quo doesn't make it better either, so why not take a look at someone that hasn't had an opportunity yet ?

If there's no moves to be made outside the organization yet to help the bullpen then its time to see if someone in the system can get the job done over the recycling of arms that they have been using and failing with.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Staying status quo doesn't make it better either, so why not take a look at someone that hasn't had an opportunity yet ?

If there's no moves to be made outside the organization yet to help the bullpen then its time to see if someone in the system can get the job done over the recycling of arms that they have been using and failing with.

Pretty sure the Cubs know about Edward. Palencia and Cuas have been up. So that leaves Roberts, who has walked 6 guys in 9 innings. He has pitched 9 innings in the last 2 years. What makes you think he will be any better than what they have? And also, don’t you think it the Cubs knew he would be better, he would be up? Making all sorts of 40 man roster moves, releasing guys. Wanting guys down and still end up with the same type of reliever is just bit progress to me. They need a closer. Period. And right now none are available. 

That said, maybe they do send Little down and bring someone up. I don’t expect that to matter much, if at all. 

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

The bottom line is that you trade Bellinger or anybody else on the MLB roster to get the superstar masher, ace or closer you need and without which you're never going to be an elite team. 

Bellinger, Busch and PCA really can't co-exist on the same team - one of these guys has to go in a trade described above. If you trade for a 1b like Guerrero you have to send Bellinger or Busch out. 

The good news from the original post is that Bellinger, Busch, PCA and Caissie have all met expectations - so trade one (preferably not PCA or Caissie) already! 

Edited June 14, 2024 by Javy Is Still A Cub
your Mom

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

The bottom line is that you trade Bellinger or anybody else on the MLB roster to get the superstar masher, ace or closer you need and without which you're never going to be an elite team. 

Bellinger, Busch and PCA really can't co-exist on the same team - one of these guys has to go in a trade described above. If you trade for a 1b like Guerrero you have to send Bellinger or Busch out. 

The good news from the original post is that Bellinger, Busch, PCA and Caissie have all met expectations - so trade one already! 

Every sentence of this post is completely wrong.  Misunderstanding what is going to help the team, misunderstanding what teams will want in trade, misunderstanding what is actually a bottleneck, misunderstanding who has 'made it' in terms of meeting expectations of being a useful MLBer, all of it.

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Staying status quo doesn't make it better either, so why not take a look at someone that hasn't had an opportunity yet ?

Because, as much as people like to think this is some historically bad situation we're in right now, it isn't, and making bad decisions can absolutely lead to things getting worse. We're 3 games under .500, there's a long way from the bottom. 

[chibears55]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Because, as much as people like to think this is some historically bad situation we're in right now, it isn't, and making bad decisions can absolutely lead to things getting worse. We're 3 games under .500, there's a long way from the bottom. 

They've been playing bad baseball for the last 7 weeks now, 9 under since May 1st with the same players .

Yes there's a long way to go and that the reason why they need to make some changes to fix it while there is still time to do so.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They've been playing bad baseball for the last 7 weeks now, 9 under since May 1st with the same players .

Yes there's a long way to go and that the reason why they need to make some changes to fix it while there is still time to do so.

And in that 7 week sample (since 4/26, 7 Fridays ago), the Cubs bullpen is:

• 17th in fWAR
• 3rd in K rate
• 23rd in BB rate
• 26th in ERA
• 19th in FIP
• 13th in xFIP

Great? No. Terrible? No. Seemingly very unlucky? Yes. Likely to be improved by two guys who walk a bunch of dudes? Probably not.

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

And in that 7 week sample (since 4/26, 7 Fridays ago), the Cubs bullpen is:

• 17th in fWAR
• 3rd in K rate
• 23rd in BB rate
• 26th in ERA
• 19th in FIP
• 13th in xFIP

Great? No. Terrible? No. Seemingly very unlucky? Yes. Likely to be improved by two guys who walk a bunch of dudes? Probably not.

Lol..

Well you just keep enjoying what you're watching and hoping that the same guys that keep taking the mound and not getting the job done because theyre just unlucky get better luck eventually 

Edited June 14, 2024 by chibears55

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lol..

Well you just keep enjoying what you're watching and hoping that the same guys that keep taking the mound and not getting the job done gets better eventually 

The players in Iowa all suck in Iowa dude. They've all been terrible. In Iowa. 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The players in Iowa all suck in Iowa dude. They've all been terrible. In Iowa. 

He just wants someone new to yell at. 

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Every sentence of this post is completely wrong.  Misunderstanding what is going to help the team, misunderstanding what teams will want in trade, misunderstanding what is actually a bottleneck, misunderstanding who has 'made it' in terms of meeting expectations of being a useful MLBer, all of it.

Yeah it really isn't. 

They need a couple three superstars and not just 9 decent players, as you suggested earlier. 

You can't run out PCA, Bellinger and Busch regularly and be an elite team - lacking the superstars elsewhere -and the Cubs are proving that.

So, yeah, it is right - trade to get the masher, ace and stopper we don't have. Cubs have so many trade chips and instead of trying to game the market and squeezing out every bit of value they should just pay for the few keys spots they need. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

Yeah it really isn't. 

They need a couple three superstars and not just 9 decent players, as you suggested earlier. 

You can't run out PCA, Bellinger and Busch regularly and be an elite team - lacking the superstars elsewhere -and the Cubs are proving that.

So, yeah, it is right - trade to get the masher, ace and stopper we don't have. Cubs have so many trade chips and instead of trying to game the market and squeezing out every bit of value they should just pay for the few keys spots they need. 

The closest thing to being correct is the idea that the Cubs would benefit from adding 'superstars', which is basically impossible to disagree with by definition.  Do they need to trade for 'three superstars'?  No.  Should they trade Bellinger to get one?  No.  Would a team trading such a player have any interest in Bellinger?  No.  Bellinger, Busch, and PCA can't coexist?  No.  Trading for a 1B like Vlad means Bellinger or Busch must go?  No.  Have Bellinger, Busch, PCA and Caissie all met MLB expectations requiring a trade?  No.

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Watch them make this type of trade.

Or watch them stay mediocre.