Article: As Chicago Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger, Defensive Versatility Skyrockets

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs' lineup gained stability and concrete shape this weekend. Their defense, meanwhile, got even more fluid.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs’ re-signing of Cody Bellinger to what is, in essence, a one-year deal quelled many a nerve across the North Side fanbase over the weekend. In bringing back one of their offensive stalwarts from 2023, the Cubs locked in their sorely needed lefty bat for the middle of the order and a strong defender, to establish themselves as, at least, a contender for the National League Central crown in 2024.

The ramifications of bringing Bellinger back into the fold run deep. There are lineup construction implications. There’s likely to be fallout on the 40-man. It puts the team into a position where prospects get to focus on the final steps of their development, rather than being thrust into a role from the jump. Most importantly – and perhaps impressively – it unlocks an absurd level of defensive versatility that should be the envy of teams around Major League Baseball. 

It’s no secret that this team has to be excellent on the margins in order to succeed. While signing Bellinger seemed essential, they’re still multiple steps behind legitimate contenders elsewhere in the NL. This is especially true on the defensive front. The Cubs have not built a staff of power arms. Some are on the rise throughout the system, sure. But with a staff that relies on soft contact, the defense has to be the crux of their aspirations. 

That makes the Bellinger re-addition that much more fascinating. Realistically, there are about four spots on the roster that are genuinely locked in. The middle infield features Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner (with the latter possessing the ability to move over to the six when the former needs a day off). Ian Happ will once again man left field. Yan Gomes is the guy behind the plate, until Miguel Amaya can hang as the No. 1. Seiya Suzuki will get the bulk of the starts in right. But without a true designated hitter on the roster, we can likely assume he’ll grab at least a decent share in that role, to open up some playing time for others. That leaves three and a half spots where the Cubs are lacking in everyday certainty: First base, third base, part of the DH gig, and center field.

For those spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman, and Miles Mastrobuoni currently on the roster. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario are on the 40-man. They also have David Peralta, Dominic Smith, and Garrett Cooper in camp on minor-league deals. That’s a dozen names. 

Of them, Bellinger will most likely get the lion’s share of starts in center out of the gate, but we know he can handle first base at an upper-tier level, as well. When PCA is ready (or when Craig Counsell wants to work one of Canario or Tauchman into the mix), we’ll see him bounce to that infield corner. We may also see him in right for a spell once Crow-Armstrong does arrive permanently. So that’s two guaranteed spots in which we’ll see Bellinger, and maybe a third. 

Morel appeared at six different positions in 2023. The team wants to give him a shot to lock down the hot corner. If he can’t, we’ll likely see him bounce around in a somewhat similar fashion (while grabbing the majority of starts out of the DH spot). Somewhat similarly, Michael Busch played four separate positions in Los Angeles last year. The Cubs want to give him a chance at first. But we may also see him bounce around to second and third on an as-needed basis in order to get the bat into the lineup.

Further down the roster, you’ve got Wisdom, who can play first, third, and the outfield corners (although those, please, God, only in emergencies). Madrigal can play second, and showed us last year that he can play third with the best of them. Tauchman can hold down any of the three outfield positions. So can Canario. Mastrobuoni played second, short, third, left, and right. The current slate of non-roster invites don’t offer the same level of flexibility, but they can handle first and/or an outfield corner in a pinch, opening up the DH spot, which would further goose the team's total flexibility. When Crow-Armstrong demonstrates that he’s ready for a regular role, your guys in center can be deployed elsewhere.

Each of these guys can be counted on for at least some level of stability, too. You don’t want to trot Wisdom out at third for multiple weeks at a time. But on a Tuesday, so Morel can sit or just take some hacks at DH? Absolutely. You’re not worried about defensive metrics in single game samples. The purpose of having a roster constructed this way is that it allows you to plug guys in as needed without any real fear of catastrophe in the field.

Point being, the Bellinger signing does a lot of really positive things for the Cubs. The defensive component might just be the most fascinating of it all. We’ve come to view Counsell as something of a chess master. And while he’ll certainly have a pretty regular lineup – especially having noted the comfort of hitters being an important consideration over the weekend – there are an absurd number of possibilities for his defensive configuration as 2024 gets underway. 

We’ll see some continued movement throughout the spring, for sure. But from a roster construction standpoint, it’s very clear that the organization has a significant desire to incorporate movable pieces. Not only from bench spots, either. Nearly half of the regular starters will experience some level of positional variability. It’s a massive tool in the toolbox for a manager such as Counsell and one that could play out as a significant advantage in 2024.

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[Bertz]

One of the things that becomes increasingly clear about Jed the longer we see him run the team is he's much more concerned about floor than ceiling.  And Bellinger really raises the floor on this team.

- If Morel is able to start at 3B, the team should get a wRC+ north of 100 from every spot except catcher, and even at catcher we should get above average offense by positional standards.  Seiya is probably the only guy you can reasonably expect a wRC+ north of ~120 from, but it's a deep and varied lineup

- Depending on how much value you attribute to the softer factors of catching, the Cubs look like they will run out plus defenders all the way up the middle, and average-ish defenders at every corner spot except for 3B (and even that becomes plus if Morel falters)

- Because of the versatility of particularly Bellinger and Hoerner, the team is two or more deep with starting caliber players at every position, AND on top of that they have loaded Iowa and Tennessee rosters ready do push even more talent towards the bigs

There will obviously be some guys who crater, but the team should be in position to minimize as much as possible wasted playing time.  Contrast that with our main competition for the division, the Cardinals, and like their shortstop options are a 22 year old who OPS'd under .500 as a rookie and a 37 year old who OPS'd under .600 last year.