Chicago Cubs 2024 X-Factors: Winning Without Velocity in the Rotation

I think this is less of a concern than it was a few years ago.  Steele and Shota don't throw hard but are plus stuff guys even by objective measures.  The immediate 5th starter options (aside from Wesneski) are all some degree of soft tossing, but Brown and Horton are right behind that group and very much premium stuff/velo options.

I think it does make you kind of wonder about giving Wicks or Smyly that 5th starter spot and leaning more towards Assad or Wesneski.  Even though each of them has a very different movement profile and secondaries, having 3 or 4 lefties in your rotation throwing 92-93 seems potentially problematic?

Big leaguers can handle velocity. That sort of the first hurdle to making it. They have a hard time with movement and location. Obviously, you can be throwing 82 MPH fastballs down the middle, but command is king. 

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Big leaguers can handle velocity. That sort of the first hurdle to making it. They have a hard time with movement and location. Obviously, you can be throwing 82 MPH fastballs down the middle, but command is king. 

My understanding from most recent research is that the game works the other way around.  Elite stuff provides you opportunity to make mistakes in the zone, and is much more likely to draw chase out of the zone.  All else equal 90 on the corner gets hit a hell of a lot harder than 99 down the pipe. 

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

My understanding from most recent research is that the game works the other way around.  Elite stuff provides you opportunity to make mistakes in the zone, and is much more likely to draw chase out of the zone.  All else equal 90 on the corner gets hit a hell of a lot harder than 99 down the pipe. 

Foolish Baseball (awesome channel if you don't subscribe, highly recommended) recently did a video on count and it's importance on outcome. While the video is awesome, there's a great section on the second half which breaks the plate down to "heart" and "shadow".  Command matters; pitchers who hit the shadow do far better than pitchers who throw in the heart. 

I ran some data, and looking at the data, while hitters still hit well on pitches in the mid-mid part of the plate regardless of velocity (hitters are still hitting to the tune of a .327 wOBA on pitches 97-100 mph in the middle), the margin for error clearly increases with velocity as well. In zone whiff numbers increase at every interval of 3+mph from 91-94 all the way to 100mph+, and wOBA decreases in a similar fashion. The wOBA, for example, on 91-94mph mid-mid was .408.

So while clearly command is quite important and avoiding middle-middle is incredibly important, velocity appears to give pitchers quite a bit of latitude,. Essentially, if you're not going to throw hard, you better damn well have excellent command.

Greg Maddux did okay - just teach others to pitch like he did.

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

My understanding from most recent research is that the game works the other way around.  Elite stuff provides you opportunity to make mistakes in the zone, and is much more likely to draw chase out of the zone.  All else equal 90 on the corner gets hit a hell of a lot harder than 99 down the pipe. 

Cite?

I agree that velocity improves margin for error and stuff overall, but velocity is also overrated among fans compared to other things.  People get a lot more excited if a guy throws 99 mph than if he has very good GB%.

31 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cite?

I agree that velocity improves margin for error and stuff overall, but velocity is also overrated among fans compared to other things.  People get a lot more excited if a guy throws 99 mph than if he has very good GB%.

So this is one of the things I was thinking of.

https://theathletic.com/1646799/2020/03/04/sarris-whats-more-important-for-a-pitcher-command-or-stuff?source=user-shared-article

I can't find the other rattling around my head, but it was basically what 1908 shared but in article form.  Run values for like 90-92 on the black are higher than they are for like 97-99 down the middle.  I don't remember exactly where those lines cross but I believe it was approximately 6-7 MPHs on average.  This also doesn't take extreme spin/movement profiles like Steele or Shota into account, but again we're keeping to generalities.