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    The 40-Man Roster Repercussions of Signing Cody Bellinger


    Brandon Glick

    With the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year back in tow, what is the domino effect of sliding Bellinger back onto the 40-man roster?

    Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

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    In case you (somehow) missed the news, Cody Bellinger is returning to the Chicago Cubs on a Carlos Correa-esque three-year deal, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. 

    Whether Bellinger is wearing Cubbie blue for the next three years or just in 2024, the immediate fallout is the same: the Cubs just got a lot better for 2024, and their chances of winning a very winnable division just shot up. It’s the kind of move a team with serious expectations for this upcoming season needed to make, and even if it leaves the Cubs short of the Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves tier of super teams, it firmly entrenches them as contenders in an otherwise wide-open National League.

    In terms of accounting, the deal is technically a three-year, $80 million pact. However, due to its opt-out heavy language, Bellinger will count for a flat $30 million against the competitive balance tax this season (as well as next season, should he opt-in for 2025; his salary in 2026 is just $20 million). Of course, once the deal is official, Bellinger will also need to be placed back on the Cubs’ 40-man roster and, eventually, the 26-man roster once Spring Training is concluded. A slight issue arises here, as the organization’s 40-man is currently full.  

    Given Bellinger’s versatility as an outfielder and first basemen, that’s likely where the Cubs will pull from to make a spot for the former NL MVP. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Matt Mervis, Luis Vasquez, and Brennen Davis could reasonably be DFA’d or traded in the coming days as the final terms on Bellinger’s contract are finalized. If the Cubs would prefer to keep their entire trove of position players at camp, they could deplete their pitching depth, likely picking from any of Keegan Thompson, Caleb Kilian, or Jose Cuas to risk losing on waivers. 

    Nick Madrigal
    The diminutive infielder has some versatility, having played at second base in the minor leagues before impressing in limited work at third base last season. His high-contact approach has been spotty in the major leagues, though, and the team’s infield situation was already crowded before Bellinger agreed to return. 

    Patrick Wisdom
    Perhaps the most likely player to be DFA’d among the group, Wisdom is pretty much limited to platoon duty at this point in his career. He can hit lefties as well as anyone on the roster, though, and his ability to play third and first base in a pinch may give him enough value in the eyes of the front office to stick around. 

    Miles Mastrobuoni 
    As a lefty bat with super-utility potential in the field, the former Tampa Bay Ray is likely safe even with the left-handed Bellinger back in town. However, outside of a hot stretch down the stretch last year, Mastrobuoni struggled at the plate in 2023, and his leash will be shorter this year.

    Matt Mervis
    Somehow, the Cubs just can’t seem to find the space for this guy. Mervis is a powerful lefty who slashed .309/.379/.605 with 36 home runs in the minors in 2022, but he really struggled in a ~100 plate appearance cup of coffee in the majors last year. He could make for an intriguing trade candidate if the Cubs try to do more than release someone.

    Luis Vasquez
    It’s highly unlikely, after the Cubs protected him over the offseason and his offensive breakout last year, that Vasquez is in real danger of being DFA’d. He’s got legitimate fielding chops in the middle of the infield, but if the Cubs find a taker wanting to buy on Vasquez’s everyday potential, they could upgrade more than just their lineup with the Bellinger move.

    Brennen Davis
    Off to a scorching start this spring, Davis is likely on his last legs with the Cubs after a few injury-plagued seasons. His prospect stock had major helium after he won the Cubs’ Minor Leaguer of the Year award in 2019, but the pandemic and injuries have sapped his hype. With Alexander Canario and Pete Crow-Armstrong already on the 40-man, Davis could be out if the plan is to play Bellinger primarily in center field.

    Keegan Thompson
    Arguably the Cubs’ best pitcher in 2022 when he took off in a long-relief role out of the bullpen, Thompson simply hasn’t been able to get back on track after a slow start last season. When right, the righty is as valuable as anyone in the bullpen. Still, the Cubs’ competition for the remaining few reliever slots on the Opening Day roster is already off and running. Thompson’s time may be running out in Chicago.

    Caleb Kilian
    With minor-league options remaining, Killian shouldn’t be in real danger of losing his roster spot due to the move for Bellinger. Still, significant struggles in the major leagues have given the Cubs reason to pause on their expectations for the former San Francisco Giants prospect. His stuff still grades out as elite, and if he can ever learn proper command, he’ll be a force in the rotation, but Killian is starting to encroach on thin-ice territory. 

    Jose Cuas
    The return in the ill-fated Nelson Velasquez trade last summer, Cuas should also be safe due to his remaining minor-league options. The Cubs traded for him due to his unique arm angle, and he could be a surprise in the Opening Day bullpen if he harnesses his unique stuff. 

    What do you think? Who do you think the Cubs should be willing to let go, and who should they be sure to hold onto in the wake of the Cody Bellinger news?

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    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

    If just one guy goes then Keegan Thompson, no? Non-power reliever, 9 years removed from TJ1, not loaded with tools or skills, other stuff 

    Also almost 29, on his last option year, and couldn't really get it done at Iowa or Chicago last year. If you have to DFA someone, the main reason not to would be if you feel you want this many arms on the 40 man going forward, so you might as well match Bellinger to a position player now.

    • Like 2
    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    Also almost 29, on his last option year, and couldn't really get it done at Iowa or Chicago last year. If you have to DFA someone, the main reason not to would be if you feel you want this many arms on the 40 man going forward, so you might as well match Bellinger to a position player now.

    My thoughts exactly. I like Thompson, but once the Cubs cut bait with Brandon Hughes, I think whatever goodwill remained from his 2022 performance went out the window

    • Like 1
    Bertz

    Posted

    They're certainly not doing Vazquez or any of the guys they added to the 40 man in November.  I think Kilian or Davis would have made sense a month ago but with them both looking great early camp here the timing would be weird.

    I would really like to see Jed make a trade, with Wisdom IMO making the most sense.  If we just simply cut someone it's probably got to be Mervis or Thompson.

    • Like 2
    Stratos

    Posted

    My best guesses are Wisdom, Thompson, Hodge, or Horn.  Or trade.  Kilian is a possibility too I guess.

    CubinNY

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Stratos said:

    My best guesses are Wisdom, Thompson, Hodge, or Horn.  Or trade.  Kilian is a possibility too I guess.

    If I'm betting its Mervis or Thompson. 

    • Like 1
    Billy62

    Posted

         Well Brandon, just like most Cub fans (of course not all), I am pretty excited that the Cubs were finally able to work out a deal to ink Bellinger. I feel that the Cody we saw last year was the real Cody, and I hope and expect more of the same this season. That said though, this is why they play the games. I think that even without Cody this team was going to be competitive. Offensively before the signing, it looked like the team had just about held serve over the 2023 team. However, I think they did a pretty good job with the pitching staff, starters and relievers. I take issue with the projected numbers of our starters. (Steele: 11-7, Taillon: 9-8, Imanaga: 7-5*, Assad: 5-4, and Hendricks: 8-9) I think the numbers will be a little bit better, at least I hope. I think I am in total agreement with you about the roster spot for Cody. I think this definitely makes Wisdom expendable. Sad, because he is a nice guy and I was rooting for him to make a bigger splash, but like Cody, when it comes to Patrick, I think he is who he is. He definitely has pop in his bat, but just too much swing and miss. The new kids coming up excite me and make me nervous at the same time. They all have potential, but its the realization part that hasn't clicked in yet. This ball club should be improved over last year, and the division will probably be easier to win. Of course then we get to the question of what then, but you crawl before you walk, and lets just get there first. The Dodgers looked to me like they were trying to recreate the "27" Yankees. The Braves just have that Midas touch where everything turns golden. In the division, I see maybe a little bit of a changing of the guard. I see the Brewers relinquishing their hold on the division, and letting the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates slug it out for the top spot. I didn't think the Cardinals did too much to change their fortunes, maybe a moderate improvement. Bottom line it just gets me excited for this upcoming season, and at 63, not really sure how many more I have left. Still, been attached to this team for about 56 years now, and it still burns strong within me........so lets go boys, I am ready. 🙂

    • Like 2
    • Love 1
    Irrelevant Dude

    Posted

    Unlikely as it may be, if Mervis gets dealt for scraps and hits 30 home runs somewhere else, that is going to be annoying.

    • Like 2
    Rob

    Posted

    Pretty much zero chance it's Madrigal. Health permitting, he's probably in line to rack up a plurality of innings at 3B this season.

    It's probably Thompson DFA'd. If we're looking at position players, I think Mervis is most likely.

    • Like 1
    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Billy62 said:

         Well Brandon, just like most Cub fans (of course not all), I am pretty excited that the Cubs were finally able to work out a deal to ink Bellinger. I feel that the Cody we saw last year was the real Cody, and I hope and expect more of the same this season. That said though, this is why they play the games. I think that even without Cody this team was going to be competitive. Offensively before the signing, it looked like the team had just about held serve over the 2023 team. However, I think they did a pretty good job with the pitching staff, starters and relievers. I take issue with the projected numbers of our starters. (Steele: 11-7, Taillon: 9-8, Imanaga: 7-5*, Assad: 5-4, and Hendricks: 8-9) I think the numbers will be a little bit better, at least I hope. I think I am in total agreement with you about the roster spot for Cody. I think this definitely makes Wisdom expendable. Sad, because he is a nice guy and I was rooting for him to make a bigger splash, but like Cody, when it comes to Patrick, I think he is who he is. He definitely has pop in his bat, but just too much swing and miss. The new kids coming up excite me and make me nervous at the same time. They all have potential, but its the realization part that hasn't clicked in yet. This ball club should be improved over last year, and the division will probably be easier to win. Of course then we get to the question of what then, but you crawl before you walk, and lets just get there first. The Dodgers looked to me like they were trying to recreate the "27" Yankees. The Braves just have that Midas touch where everything turns golden. In the division, I see maybe a little bit of a changing of the guard. I see the Brewers relinquishing their hold on the division, and letting the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates slug it out for the top spot. I didn't think the Cardinals did too much to change their fortunes, maybe a moderate improvement. Bottom line it just gets me excited for this upcoming season, and at 63, not really sure how many more I have left. Still, been attached to this team for about 56 years now, and it still burns strong within me........so lets go boys, I am ready. 🙂

    Love the comment and love the enthusiasm! I think the Bellinger really galvanized the players and the fan base, and came at a pretty good time all things considered (even though I wouldn't have complained back in December...).

    Agreed that I think Wisdom is mostly likely to go. Definitely not a long term piece for the club, though he has his niche value.

    Even if the team can't win it all this year, I'd be thrilled just to be in the hunt again. Give me a playoff berth, give me October baseball at Wrigley, and let's see what happens!

    • Like 1
    Stratos

    Posted (edited)

    20 hours ago, Stratos said:

    My best guesses are Wisdom, Thompson, Hodge, or Horn.  Or trade.  Kilian is a possibility too I guess.

    Horn gone.  Had lots of walks, not much of a loss it looks like.  Better than mlb talent leaving

    Edited by Stratos
    • Like 1
    Billy62

    Posted

    On 2/26/2024 at 4:15 PM, Brandon Glick said:

    Love the comment and love the enthusiasm! I think the Bellinger really galvanized the players and the fan base, and came at a pretty good time all things considered (even though I wouldn't have complained back in December...).

    Agreed that I think Wisdom is mostly likely to go. Definitely not a long term piece for the club, though he has his niche value.

    Even if the team can't win it all this year, I'd be thrilled just to be in the hunt again. Give me a playoff berth, give me October baseball at Wrigley, and let's see what happens!

    Oh  yes Brandon, Most definitely! To see this team playing meaningful games in September would be quite a sight for these old eyes. A playoff berth, and dare I say a series appearance would be golden. I can't even think of the next step without my meds. In my lifetime I have only seen the Cubs in the series just once. Albeit, it was a championship season. However, there is room in my heart for a couple more. So boys, don't hold back on my account. 🙂 I think of my mom and dad, both gone now, lived their entire lives as Cub fans, and never saw a championship, especially my mom, always wearing the swag, remember "the Cubs coming out of hibernation t-shirt"? She wouldn't part with it. Maybe through me, she gets to cheer one more time.

    • Love 1
    Billy62

    Posted

    On 2/26/2024 at 3:50 PM, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Unlikely as it may be, if Mervis gets dealt for scraps and hits 30 home runs somewhere else, that is going to be annoying.

    I think the Mervis watch this spring is the real deal. He is of course not that old, but the team is possibly wrestling with the concept of "is this guy a major-leaguer or one of those AAAA guys, meaning he can overachieve in Iowa, but can't be effective in Chicago. So this spring could be make the team or bust for Matt Mervis. I agree with you though, the thought of him going elsewhere and the light switch popping on and him drilling the ball all over the field would be disheartening to all Cub fans, because unfortunately we have seen it play out before. So, I am pulling for the kid!



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