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In case you (somehow) missed the news, Cody Bellinger is returning to the Chicago Cubs on a Carlos Correa-esque three-year deal, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Whether Bellinger is wearing Cubbie blue for the next three years or just in 2024, the immediate fallout is the same: the Cubs just got a lot better for 2024, and their chances of winning a very winnable division just shot up. It’s the kind of move a team with serious expectations for this upcoming season needed to make, and even if it leaves the Cubs short of the Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves tier of super teams, it firmly entrenches them as contenders in an otherwise wide-open National League.
In terms of accounting, the deal is technically a three-year, $80 million pact. However, due to its opt-out heavy language, Bellinger will count for a flat $30 million against the competitive balance tax this season (as well as next season, should he opt-in for 2025; his salary in 2026 is just $20 million). Of course, once the deal is official, Bellinger will also need to be placed back on the Cubs’ 40-man roster and, eventually, the 26-man roster once Spring Training is concluded. A slight issue arises here, as the organization’s 40-man is currently full.
Given Bellinger’s versatility as an outfielder and first basemen, that’s likely where the Cubs will pull from to make a spot for the former NL MVP. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Matt Mervis, Luis Vasquez, and Brennen Davis could reasonably be DFA’d or traded in the coming days as the final terms on Bellinger’s contract are finalized. If the Cubs would prefer to keep their entire trove of position players at camp, they could deplete their pitching depth, likely picking from any of Keegan Thompson, Caleb Kilian, or Jose Cuas to risk losing on waivers.
Nick Madrigal
The diminutive infielder has some versatility, having played at second base in the minor leagues before impressing in limited work at third base last season. His high-contact approach has been spotty in the major leagues, though, and the team’s infield situation was already crowded before Bellinger agreed to return.
Patrick Wisdom
Perhaps the most likely player to be DFA’d among the group, Wisdom is pretty much limited to platoon duty at this point in his career. He can hit lefties as well as anyone on the roster, though, and his ability to play third and first base in a pinch may give him enough value in the eyes of the front office to stick around.
Miles Mastrobuoni
As a lefty bat with super-utility potential in the field, the former Tampa Bay Ray is likely safe even with the left-handed Bellinger back in town. However, outside of a hot stretch down the stretch last year, Mastrobuoni struggled at the plate in 2023, and his leash will be shorter this year.
Matt Mervis
Somehow, the Cubs just can’t seem to find the space for this guy. Mervis is a powerful lefty who slashed .309/.379/.605 with 36 home runs in the minors in 2022, but he really struggled in a ~100 plate appearance cup of coffee in the majors last year. He could make for an intriguing trade candidate if the Cubs try to do more than release someone.
Luis Vasquez
It’s highly unlikely, after the Cubs protected him over the offseason and his offensive breakout last year, that Vasquez is in real danger of being DFA’d. He’s got legitimate fielding chops in the middle of the infield, but if the Cubs find a taker wanting to buy on Vasquez’s everyday potential, they could upgrade more than just their lineup with the Bellinger move.
Brennen Davis
Off to a scorching start this spring, Davis is likely on his last legs with the Cubs after a few injury-plagued seasons. His prospect stock had major helium after he won the Cubs’ Minor Leaguer of the Year award in 2019, but the pandemic and injuries have sapped his hype. With Alexander Canario and Pete Crow-Armstrong already on the 40-man, Davis could be out if the plan is to play Bellinger primarily in center field.
Keegan Thompson
Arguably the Cubs’ best pitcher in 2022 when he took off in a long-relief role out of the bullpen, Thompson simply hasn’t been able to get back on track after a slow start last season. When right, the righty is as valuable as anyone in the bullpen. Still, the Cubs’ competition for the remaining few reliever slots on the Opening Day roster is already off and running. Thompson’s time may be running out in Chicago.
Caleb Kilian
With minor-league options remaining, Killian shouldn’t be in real danger of losing his roster spot due to the move for Bellinger. Still, significant struggles in the major leagues have given the Cubs reason to pause on their expectations for the former San Francisco Giants prospect. His stuff still grades out as elite, and if he can ever learn proper command, he’ll be a force in the rotation, but Killian is starting to encroach on thin-ice territory.
Jose Cuas
The return in the ill-fated Nelson Velasquez trade last summer, Cuas should also be safe due to his remaining minor-league options. The Cubs traded for him due to his unique arm angle, and he could be a surprise in the Opening Day bullpen if he harnesses his unique stuff.
What do you think? Who do you think the Cubs should be willing to let go, and who should they be sure to hold onto in the wake of the Cody Bellinger news?
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