The Winners and the Other Winners of the New Cody Bellinger Deal

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Or, in this particular case, what happens when Scott Boras--known for getting large, long-term deals for his clients-- ends up negotiating with Jed Hoyer, who seems to have a strong disdain for handing out the exactly that kind of contract?

As most of us discovered upon waking up on Sunday morning, the immovable object won. Cody Bellinger will be back with the Chicago Cubs for the 2024 season, and maybe more, as he agreed to a three-year, $80-million deal. He can make $30 million in 2024 and 2025, and $20m in 2026. He will also have the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons. 

Only a few hours have passed since I learned of the deal, but the more I reflect on it, there is no doubt in my mind that Hoyer got exactly what he wanted here. Regardless of whether you believe that Bellinger’s 2023 production is repeatable, he projects to be a valuable player. Most projection systems peg him as a two- to three-win player in 2024. Retaining that guy is absolutely a good thing in the short term. There were never any questions over that. The Cubs are a better team now than they were before pulling the trigger on it. 

The concern with Bellinger, as I have covered previously here at North Side Baseball, is both the fear of giving a huge contract to a guy who might have overperformed in 2023, and also that the Cubs have two major-league-ready prospects in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at the positions that Bellinger plays. With both of those things in mind, would the Cubs have been better off investing the potential Bellinger money elsewhere--like third base, for example?

This contract is the best of both worlds. Not only do the Cubs get another useful player for this coming season, but this also takes a lot of pressure off of both Crow-Armstrong and Busch, who previously figured to be in the mix for the Opening Day start in center field and at first base, respectively. Now, if one or both of those guys struggle, Bellinger can easily pick up the slack at either position. If they both end up being awesome in their rookie years, the Cubs have the ability to pivot from Bellinger and reinvest that money elsewhere, given the short-term nature of this contract.

With this move, we’re probably looking at the finished Opening Day roster for this year’s Cubs, save small moves at the edges. Factoring in Bellinger’s $26.7-million annual average value, the estimated tax payroll is $230.7 million, according to Spotrac. The competitive balance tax threshold is $237 million, and if Bellinger opts out of his contract after this year (which I suspect will likely happen, unless he has a completely disastrous season), his salary for tax purposes would bump up to $30 million, bringing the Cubs about $3m short of the tax threshold. 

I would be shocked if the Cubs decide to pay the tax for this season. We can debate whether they should, or shouldn’t, but it’s just not happening. Coming up a few million dollars short gives the Cubs the flexibility to take on some additional salary midseason, as well. Should the Cubs decide to surprise us all, the second threshold is at $257 million, which would give the Cubs about another $20 million to play with.

But I digress. I am fairly certain this is it for the North Siders, and given the financial constraints that Tom Ricketts has put on this organization, I think Jed Hoyer deserves some credit here. Clearly, he wanted Bellinger back, but only on his terms. He knew that Chicago was the best fit for Bellinger, and was more than willing to wait it out and get a little bit uncomfortable. Bellinger, on the other hand, now has the ability to prove that his 2023 was not a fluke and hit the market again next winter, without the potential loss of a draft pick attached to him--similar to what fellow Boras client Carlos Correa did with the Minnesota Twins.

With all of that said, the real winners here might be the fans. We can all now shift our focus to the actual season, rather than having the Bellinger negotiations at the forefront of any legitimate discussion. Reading any Cubs coverage from spring training was getting old, with the redundant mentions of one more potential free agent signing. Now, the focus can turn to on-field stuff. How will the Cubs deploy Bellinger and utilize his versatility? Does this mean Crow-Armstrong or Busch starts the season at Iowa? With Matt Chapman likely not joining the team, will Christopher Morel get a legitimate chance to play third base? Stay tuned.