Article: What Makes Tyler Glasnow So Appealing to the Cubs

[Matthew Trueblood]

With just five days left before the MLB Winter Meetings get fully underway in Nashville, trade rumors are picking up steam. Here's why the ones around the Cubs continue to center on the Rays' gawky ace.

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

By now, you've probably heard about Tyler Glasnow's gaudy strikeout rates. That's the selling point for him. It's why he's drawn so much interest, despite his lack of durability and the fact that he becomes a free agent after 2024, a season in which he'll make $25 million. Every team, especially in 2023, loves pitchers who strike people out. There's not much subtlety to it, but it's the way of the pitching world.

As the Rays have shopped Glasnow and rumors have intensified, though, the Cubs are standing out (along with the Dodgers and Reds, and a couple presumed dark horses) from the field. They clearly have an interest that runs deeper than the sheer strikeout stuff, and an attraction to him that chips away at the conservatism that has historically led Jed Hoyer to prefer safer, sturdier, lower-ceiling starters. What fuels that?

Some of the answer is in Glasnow's unique physicality and delivery. Only a handful of other pitchers in MLB get further down the mound and release their pitches closer to home plate than does the long, fluid Glasnow. This can sometimes feel like a small thing, but compare these overhead 3D visualizations of two pitchers' pitches. First, here's Glasnow.

Now, here's Justin Verlander--another tall right-handed hurler with mid-90s heat and two breaking balls that work off of it.

From this digital bird's eye, you can see how big a difference extension can make. Glasnow's hand is a foot and a half closer to home than is Verlander's on an average fastball. Note the white and pink dots along the flight paths of the pitches, too. Because of the greater extension Glasnow achieves, hitters can't recognize and differentiate his offerings with as much distance between them and the ball (and thus, with as much time to decide on whether to attack) as they can against Verlander's stuff. 

Glasnow pays a kinetic price for the intensity of his delivery. His injury history makes that clear. However, he also gets a real benefit from it. Of the 506 pitchers who threw at least 200 fastballs last year, Glasnow ranked 72nd in raw velocity, but 25th in perceived velocity, according to Statcast. That he throws that hard with that much extension also helps engender swings (and especially swings and misses) on his breaking stuff. 

The Cubs don't generally go wild for extension. Whereas Glasnow's Rays ranked first in MLB in that regard in 2023, Chicago was 26th. It's something they've been trying to balance out a bit, though, and as Craig Counsell comes down from Milwaukee to take the helm, he might also bring along his predilections in these small things. The Brewers ranked second to Tampa in extension this year.

One thing for which the Cubs already do go wild, though, is cutting action on four-seam fastballs. Famously, some sources reclassified Justin Steele's fastball as a cutter this year, and that's with good reason. If you count that heater as a four-seamer, though, the Cubs had more cut (or less armside run, to flip things around) on their four-seam fastballs in 2023 than any other team in MLB. Of the 359 hurlers who threw at least 200 four-seamers this year, Glasnow ranked 11th in cut on the pitch. In that way, he would fit their pitching philosophy perfectly, and Tommy Hottovy would love working with him.

None of this means Glasnow is a perfect trade target. The injuries that have plagued him throughout his career should give any team pause about trading significant talent to get him, but it sure seems like the price tag will be substantial. That's the nature of the marketplace for starting pitching throughout MLB over the last few years, as the proliferation of guys like Glasnow (great, but fragile) has created an artificially high level of consistent demand for starters. In all likelihood, what he gets traded for will make fans of whichever team lands him wince.

Still, there are clear matches between the Cubs and this particular hurler. They have the organizational depth to trade for him without that wince being too long-lasting, too. While Glasnow is a deeply imperfect pitcher, his unique characteristics make him alluring in a way few other available starters are.

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[Bertz]

The collective pissing and moaning about Glasnow's injury history, like less than a week after most of the same people went gaga for the idea of rehabbing Brandon Woodruff's busted shoulder (which is sooooo much worse of a situation), makes me want to pull out what little hair I've still got.

More to the point, Glasnow is probably the second best pitcher in baseball on a per inning basis (behind, ironically, deGrom).  Sure the over/under on his innings is somewhere in the 120-150 range, but these are the sorts of risks you can take when your rotation already goes 8ish deep with options that are at least decent.

Getting Glasnow on a one year deal is one of the smartest most impactful moves Jed can make this winter.  My only reservation is that at $25M I'm not sure it can live as part of a plan that includes Ohtani or Soto, and those guys are by far my top priority this winter.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

The collective pissing and moaning about Glasnow's injury history, like less than a week after most of the same people went gaga for the idea of rehabbing Brandon Woodruff's busted shoulder (which is sooooo much worse of a situation), makes me want to pull out what little hair I've still got.

More to the point, Glasnow is probably the second best pitcher in baseball on a per inning basis (behind, ironically, deGrom).  Sure the over/under on his innings is somewhere in the 120-150 range, but these are the sorts of risks you can take when your rotation already goes 8ish deep with options that are at least decent.

Getting Glasnow on a one year deal is one of the smartest most impactful moves Jed can make this winter.  My only reservation is that at $25M I'm not sure it can live as part of a plan that includes Ohtani or Soto, and those guys are by far my top priority this winter.

I think you'd find that a lot of the people who want Woodruff are also gaga for Glasnow. As someone who emphatically does not think Woodruff would be a good pickup for them and who's lower than most on Glasnow, I won't presume to speak for either bloc, but I think your perception of those folks' take is a little off.

By contrast, your framing of the expected innings Glasnow might throw is off, but not by a little. 120-150? Look, that'd be great! But the range we should *project* for him is more like 90-120. The 120 he threw last year are the most he's ever managed in MLB, and he hasn't thrown more than that overall since the years he divided between AAA and the big leagues in 2016 and 2017.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

The collective pissing and moaning about Glasnow's injury history, like less than a week after most of the same people went gaga for the idea of rehabbing Brandon Woodruff's busted shoulder (which is sooooo much worse of a situation), makes me want to pull out what little hair I've still got.

More to the point, Glasnow is probably the second best pitcher in baseball on a per inning basis (behind, ironically, deGrom).  Sure the over/under on his innings is somewhere in the 120-150 range, but these are the sorts of risks you can take when your rotation already goes 8ish deep with options that are at least decent.

Getting Glasnow on a one year deal is one of the smartest most impactful moves Jed can make this winter.  My only reservation is that at $25M I'm not sure it can live as part of a plan that includes Ohtani or Soto, and those guys are by far my top priority this winter.

I agree with you Bertz. My question withbGlasnow is his injury history. Has it always been shoulder, elbow related? If so isn’t all of that a precursor to eventual TJS? And if that is the case and he had the surgery and is now back should he really be judged on his past injuries? If they were all related to his arm and his arm is now stable, why can’t he throw 170+ innings next year. After the surgery and he started pitching in 23’ how many starts did he miss? 
tbf, I honestly don’t know what all his issues have been. That is why I am asking. But if they were all arm related and now the arm is sound, why is it such a concern about him for 1 year? I wouldn’t sign him to a 5 year deal, but we are talking about 1 year. 
as for the Ohtani concerns, I see it differently. I see a guy like Glasnow or another pitcher on the last year of his deal making perfect sense. Ohtani can take his spot in 25’. 

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with you Bertz. My question withbGlasnow is his injury history. Has it always been shoulder, elbow related? If so isn’t all of that a precursor to eventual TJS? And if that is the case and he had the surgery and is now back should he really be judged on his past injuries? If they were all related to his arm and his arm is now stable, why can’t he throw 170+ innings next year. After the surgery and he started pitching in 23’ how many starts did he miss? 
tbf, I honestly don’t know what all his issues have been. That is why I am asking. But if they were all arm related and now the arm is sound, why is it such a concern about him for 1 year? I wouldn’t sign him to a 5 year deal, but we are talking about 1 year. 
as for the Ohtani concerns, I see it differently. I see a guy like Glasnow or another pitcher on the last year of his deal making perfect sense. Ohtani can take his spot in 25’. 

Funny you mention this!  I brought it up in the other Glasnow thread yesterday

Quote

 

2016 - 140 IP (make sure you count his MiLB innings)

2017 - 155.1 IP (ditto)

2018 - 111.2 IP (worked as a reliever in Pitt because they were too dumb to figure him out)

2019 - 60.2 IP (forearm strain)

2020 - 57.1 IP (pandemic, this was actually a full set of starts)

2021 - 88 IP (TJ)

2022 - 13.2 IP (TJ)

2023 - 120 IP (hamstring)

 

He didn't throw a lot of MLB innings early in his career because he was bad and the Pirates were too dumb to fix him, but nothing to do with health.  He had an elbow strain in 2019, and those are very often a precursor to UCL tears.  That tear ended up occurring midway through 2021, taking him out until September of 2022.  Last year he had a hamstring strain in ST and missed the first bit of the year.

So three injuries of any real consequence in his career, two of those being directly tied to his elbow which has since been reconstructed.  He's a pitcher who throws hard so definitely be on guard for durability issues, but like the level of consternation does not stand up to scrutiny. 

Expecting 200 innings from a guy who's never passed 160 isn't a smart bet, but expecting 90 because he had the temerity to have TJ right after the pandemic isn't much better.

 

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Funny you mention this!  I brought it up in the other Glasnow thread yesterday

He didn't throw a lot of MLB innings early in his career because he was bad and the Pirates were too dumb to fix him, but nothing to do with health.  He had an elbow strain in 2019, and those are very often a precursor to UCL tears.  That tear ended up occurring midway through 2021, taking him out until September of 2022.  Last year he had a hamstring strain in ST and missed the first bit of the year.

So three injuries of any real consequence in his career, two of those being directly tied to his elbow which has since been reconstructed.  He's a pitcher who throws hard so definitely be on guard for durability issues, but like the level of consternation does not stand up to scrutiny. 

Expecting 200 innings from a guy who's never passed 160 isn't a smart bet, but expecting 90 because he had the temerity to have TJ right after the pandemic isn't much better.

 

Yep, I could see as much as 25 starts and 160 innings if his surgery fixed what the primary issue has been for him since he has been in the big leagues. Maybe he misses a few starts do to spasms, then  einf careful with him, etc…. But no reason to think his injuries should continue. Now if it was a consideration for a long term deal, I might pass. But for one year I feel he is a good high reward risk.