Cubs Preparing for Bellinger Bidding to Extend Deep Into Offseason

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Athletic published this great piece from Sahadev Sharma, interviewing baseball personnel about Cody Bellinger and what to expect this winter.

In it, they run through the ups and downs of Cody Bellinger since he won the MVP award in 2019, his later fall from grace, and his 2023 rebound with the Cubs. There's a lot to unpack, as they talk in relative detail about his successful 2023 campaign and some of the underlying metrics that still give cause for concern, such as his continued unimpressive exit velocity and hard-hit balls that led to a .319 BABIP, the highest of Bellinger's career.

There's also a lot to like about Bellinger: he's still only 28 years old and his athleticism and defensive flexibility lend weight to the idea that he will age well through a long-term contract.

Personally, I'm generally against paying long-term for a player based on one season of play. Yes, Bellinger had quite a track record from 2017-2019 but that drop-off, followed by underlying metric concerns, make me question committing 5+ years to him.

Couple that with Bellinger's agent, Scott Boras, often taking his clients deep into the offseason in an attempt to maximize the return on a contract, and the Cubs might be taking a significant risk by holding out on other options in hopes of landing Bellinger in January or even February.

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[Bertz]

I'm way out on keeping Bellinger unless something significant changes.  IMO I agree with the guy in the Athletic article that said his bat looks like it should end up more in the 110-120 wRC+ range.  That, combined with plus defense in CF and his age, is absolutely worth something like Dansby Swanson money.  Maybe closer to $100M than $200M based on the elevated risk from his '21 and '22?

But he's not slated to play CF here.  PCA is ideally the guy.  If not him ideally Alcantara.   Alexander Canario is probably going to be viable out there for the next 2-3 years.  There's certainly scenarios where Bellinger plays plenty of CF, but it's not A or even plan B.  

A wRC+ south of 120 is basically on the low end of acceptable.  If you were paying Bellinger purely as a 1B you'd give him like Jose Abreu money?  Paying more in case he ends up playing more CF than intended is fair, but do we really want to give him ~$100M extra as a CF insurance policy?  Seems foolish. 

If something changes and CF opens up, for instance you turn PCA into Tarik Skubal or Logan Gilbert, lets totally talk Bellinger.  Otherwise he's just got a lot more value to other clubs than he would here.

[chopsx9]

Nonsense, Give him a Dawson check and stop pussyfooting around.  Cubs need thunder in the line up - he's already done it in a Cubs uniform, he's 28, he has real positional flexibility, he's not going to cost any prospects and I believe he ages well.  Lets not overthink everything.

[CubinNY]

If… they sign Belli I hope they trade PCA for a young cost controlled pitcher. 

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If… they sign Belli I hope they trade PCA for a young cost controlled pitcher. 

This would work for me. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, CubinNY said:

If… they sign Belli I hope they trade PCA for a young cost controlled pitcher. 

I'd prefer they keep them both. I don't think Bellinger has many more decent seasons left as a dedicated center fielder. I suspect you end up wanting PCA soon anyway.

Of course, it all depends on the cost-controlled pitcher we're talking about here...

[CubinNY]

42 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'd prefer they keep them both. I don't think Bellinger has many more decent seasons left as a dedicated center fielder. I suspect you end up wanting PCA soon anyway.

Of course, it all depends on the cost-controlled pitcher we're talking about here...

Then don't sign him to a big expensive contract. If he can't play CF don't sign him at all. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

Then don't sign him to a big expensive contract. If he can't play CF don't sign him at all. 

I should rephrase that: I don't think a contending team wants Bellinger in center well into his 30s. He's good there now and probably for the next couple of years but at some point, you're just going to want a mid-20s speedster back in that position.

[Tryptamine]

Only way I'm ok with them resigning Bellinger is if that means PCA is trade bait. Paying Bellinger the required money for him to play 1B makes no sense at all. 

[chopsx9]

On 10/31/2023 at 8:37 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I should rephrase that: I don't think a contending team wants Bellinger in center well into his 30s. He's good there now and probably for the next couple of years but at some point, you're just going to want a mid-20s speedster back in that position.

Then move him to LF or RF - is Bogaerts going to be playing SS at 37-41?

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Then move him to LF or RF - is Bogaerts going to be playing SS at 37-41?

For sure. I'm not saying the Cubs should automatically let Bellinger walk, only that keeping PCA and Bellinger has merit.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

14 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

For sure. I'm not saying the Cubs should automatically let Bellinger walk, only that keeping PCA and Bellinger has merit.

We found a home for all those extra SS in the mid 2010s, surely we can find a place for multiple CF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

45 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

We found a home for all those extra SS in the mid 2010s, surely we can find a place for multiple CF.

Yeah, exactly. If you have up-the-middle players that can hit and play defense, there's ALWAYS room for them.

[Tryptamine]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:34 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, exactly. If you have up-the-middle players that can hit and play defense, there's ALWAYS room for them.

There's a difference between moving Javy to 2B because your have Russell at SS and moving a player from CF to the lowest position on the defensive spectrum. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

There's a difference between moving Javy to 2B because your have Russell at SS and moving a player from CF to the lowest position on the defensive spectrum. 

True, which is part of the reason why I'm lukewarm on signing Bellinger. I won't hate it if the Cubs go that route but if I was in the big chair, I'd probably go a different direction for a few reasons.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bellinger can make plenty of sense even if you ignore 1B. PCA may be the bad version of JBJ instead of the good one and not be worth a starting spot.  A corner OF can get a long term injury, have a dip in performance, or become less viable with the glove and be better as a 1B/DH themselves.  Bellinger will be signed longer term than the existing corner OF too and could play corner OF as Plan A for part of the contract if desired.  Players at any position are unlikely to play 162 games and having that flexibility makes your lineup more consistently good.  The fact that there may be a more immediate need at 1B is a bonus and not something to fear.  Also, there's been plenty of great teams and offenses with worse hitters than Bellinger at 1B, having that as a potential outcome isn't perfectly efficient, but reality never is.  Raising the floor has value too.