8/17 - Off-Day Cubs Celebration

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

The worst thing about a comp with Javy is that he has a similar hole in his swing and could quickly turn into a pumpkin

That's why I'm open to dealing him in the offseason if a team with a pitching surplus is enamored with him. There just isn't a history of guys having sustained success while striking out a third of the time. If he could play decent defense absolutely keep him, but when nearly all his value comes from his bat, that's far too scary a scenario for me to rely on him as a long term fixture. If the Mariners said hey, we like Morel, what else would you package with him for Logan Gilbert, I'd happily pack Chris's bags. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Tryptamine

[CubinNY]

44 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That's why I'm open to dealing him in the offseason if a team with a pitching surplus is enamored with him. There just isn't a history of guys having sustained success while striking out a third of the time. If he could play decent defense absolutely keep him, but when nearly all his value comes from his bat, that's far too scary a scenario for me to rely on him as a long term fixture. If the Mariners said hey, we like Morel, what else would you package with him for Logan Gilbert, I'd happily pack Chris's bags. 

The worst thing is comparing him to Javy. They are not alike in any way.

[chibears55]

With the Royals coming in this weekend,  Nelson Velasquez just hit his 4th homer with them today..

23AB 8 Hits 4 HR 1.218 OPS w/Royals

 

 

[UMFan83]

Quiet night for scoreboard watching and the matchups for the teams we care about aren't great

Diamondbacks are having a bit of a resurgence and sit 1.5 games back of the Cubs.  They have Zac Gallen going tonight against Rich Hill

Dodgers are on fire so they might win regardless of matchup but the Brewers are throwing Corbin Burnes against them tonight with the Dodgers countering with Lance Lynn who apparently has magically gotten a lot better since joining LA.

Best case scenario is we went the night 3.5 behind Philly, 1.5 behind SF, percentage points ahead of CIN and MIA, 2 games ahead of Arizona and 2 games behind MIL in the Central

Worst case scenario is everything is the same except we're 1 game ahead of Arizona and 3 games behind MIL

Edited August 17, 2023 by UMFan83

[WhyCantWeWin]

28 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

With the Royals coming in this weekend,  Nelson Velasquez just hit his 4th homer with them today..

23AB 8 Hits 4 HR 1.218 OPS w/Royals

 

 

Yep Hoyer hates slugging COF for some reason

[We Got The Whole 9]

Nelly was below average at Iowa this year. Give it some time. I wouldn't be surprised though if he's a 120 bat in his prime, but can he provide any defense?

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

The worst thing is comparing him to Javy. They are not alike in any way.

Streaky hitters with plus power who can’t lay off low breaking balls. 

[UMFan83]

21 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Streaky hitters with plus power who can’t lay off low breaking balls. 

It's kind of a lazy comparison I think.  This year Morel is only swinging at 26% of pitches outside the strike zone.  For his career Javy swings at 45% of them. Conversely, Javy makes contact with 80% of the pitches he swings at in the strike zone vs just 70% for Morel.

Then look at how each has done based on pitch type

For his career Javy has been well above average against curveballs and cutters, average against changeups and splitters, and poor against sliders and fastballs

Morel has been well above against against fastballs, sliders and cutters, average against splitters and below average against curveballs and changeups.

In terms of walk rate, Morel's is about double Javy's.

They both have contact issues but Javy's seem to be more about swinging at balls and not being able to hit sliders.  Morel has more trouble making contact in the strike zone but has showed the ability to work a count and lay off bad pitches (relatively to Javy).  He also crushes fastballs and sliders which are the 2 pitches Javy has the most trouble with.

Edited August 17, 2023 by UMFan83

[Derwood]

Counterpoint: meh 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

That's why I'm open to dealing him in the offseason if a team with a pitching surplus is enamored with him. There just isn't a history of guys having sustained success while striking out a third of the time. If he could play decent defense absolutely keep him, but when nearly all his value comes from his bat, that's far too scary a scenario for me to rely on him as a long term fixture. If the Mariners said hey, we like Morel, what else would you package with him for Logan Gilbert, I'd happily pack Chris's bags. 

If Bellinger is too expensive, a deal involving Morel and McCormick might be worth looking into.  The Astros might be willing to find a position for Morel.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Tigers rained out today so they will have a doubleheader tomorrow. Not sure how that’ll change their rotation. Rodriguez is scheduled Saturday so we’ll dodge him no matter what.

[Derwood]

10 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Don’t forget that Baez is like an all world defender at three different infield positions 

 

No one is comparing them defensively

[chibears55]

21 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

If Bellinger is too expensive, a deal involving Morel and McCormick might be worth looking into.  The Astros might be willing to find a position for Morel.

Gotta bad feeling that Hoyer not gonna get into any bidding war for Bellinger and be ok with him leaving because he has Happ and Suzuki with PCA likely there to start the season or soon after.

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

Counterpoint: meh 

Sorry, would be more appropriate. 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Corbin Burnes comes out and Austin Barnes homers. 1-0 LA Bottom 8.

[UMFan83]

Brewers lose 1-0.  Cubs end the day 2 GB. 

Unfortunately, Diamondbacks win yet again, their 5th win in the last 6 games and are now 1 GB the Cubs, Marlins and Reds for WC3

Edited August 18, 2023 by UMFan83

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Just 1 game out in the loss column. Cubs need to take care of Business this weekend.

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Just 1 game out in the loss column. Cubs need to take care of Business this weekend.

Yep, that need to take the division lead and not look back

[soccer10k]

6 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Brewers lose 1-0.  Cubs end the day 2 GB. 

Unfortunately, Diamondbacks win yet again, their 5th win in the last 6 games and are now 1 GB the Cubs, Marlins and Reds for WC3

Still not worried about Arizona. Before this little stretch they were 16-34 since the middle of June. Three of their five wins were against SD and I don't mind keeping the Padres at more of a distance. I"m fine with Arizona going 2-2 or 3-1 this series. Their next four series are Texas, Cincy, LAD, Balt so hopefully they get pegged back there like the Giants currently are doing against better competition.

[David]

12 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Len sounds awful. Not because they lost, but he just sound terrible. I haven't listened to him since he left the Cubs. I feel bad for him. I get it though. I don't think I could work for the Ricketts in any capacity either. 

I mean, if he can work for Reinsdorf...

 

I also don't think his politics are what you (apparently?) think they are, but he's apparently scrubbed his Twitter likes and follows, so I can't really show you evidence.

Edited August 18, 2023 by David

[17 Seconds]

7 hours ago, David said:

I mean, if he can work for Reinsdorf...

 

I also don't think his politics are what you (apparently?) think they are, but he's apparently scrubbed his Twitter likes and follows, so I can't really show you evidence.

what kind of stuff are we talking here?

[David]

48 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

what kind of stuff are we talking here?

Just stuff I noticed he liked and/or followed a couple years ago, esp around the height of the pandemic.  I honestly don't remember specifically.  Just remember being put off and/or surprised.  I don't remember anything super extreme or egregious... but enough for me to be pretty sure he didn't quit because of PTR's political ties.

His account has zero likes or follows now so 🤷‍♂️

[Backtobanks]

20 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Gotta bad feeling that Hoyer not gonna get into any bidding war for Bellinger and be ok with him leaving because he has Happ and Suzuki with PCA likely there to start the season or soon after.

PCA is a great prospect, but who knows when he'll be ready for full-time duty.  Most of us have seen top prospects completely fail or take 2-3 years to adjust to ML pitching.