Jeimer Candelario : Should Cubs try to resign in off season or one and done?

[Jimbo]

I know its a small sample,   but I've enjoyed the return of Jeimer Candelario.    Last off season he signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Nationals.  Meanwhile the Cubs signed Eric Homser to a one-year 730,000 contract,  and Trey Mancini to a 2 year 14M (all guaranteed),       Cubs have since released both but seems like the Cubs should have used those financial resources on Jeimer instead or Eric and Trey.     I know thats all hindsight but it still feels like Jeimer would fill a Cubs need for next year without (the same need they had this year)...  Covering 1b if or when Mervis struggles,  or 3rd because of Wisdom struggles.   Nick Madrigal has filled the 3b role but his bat is not what most would want at 3rd.  

1B/3b/DH will all be questions heading into 2024.   Even with his bounce back year I dont feel we will command a large Contract and the Cubs should consider extending him. 

 

[CubinNY]

what alternatives are available? I don't think it will be a high priority, but sure. I imagine he's looking for a nice payday since he took a 1 year deal last offseason.

[UMFan83]

Will be mildly funny if Mancini's contract prevents us from making a real attempt to lock down Candelario.

It shouldn't though so I assume he'll want at least 3 years and the Mancini contract only affects next season.

Edited August 9, 2023 by UMFan83

[Tryptamine]

As always, it depends on what type of deal he's looking for. He's had a career year in 2023 , but he was awful in 2022, In 2021 he was good, posting almost 4 fWAR. If he's looking at like 4/72, even 4/80, I could see that, but if he's trying to cash in on this year for something like 6/150 then hard pass. 

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

As always, it depends on what type of deal he's looking for. He's had a career year in 2023 , but he was awful in 2022, In 2021 he was good, posting almost 4 fWAR. If he's looking at like 4/72, even 4/80, I could see that, but if he's trying to cash in on this year for something like 6/150 then hard pass. 

Wow thats much higher than I was expecting.  I was thinking like 3/$34m or 4/$45m or something like that.   I guess if his agent is good he can position this season into a huge deal, but even with this season, I don't see a ton of FA hype around him.  We're talking about a guy who was non-tendered (I think) before this season and is making less than his arbitration projection.  The great season will raise his value significantly but I don't think he's getting $15-20m a year.

But I'm not super good at this stuff so I could be way off

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Wow thats much higher than I was expecting.  I was thinking like 3/$34m or 4/$45m or something like that.   I guess if his agent is good he can position this season into a huge deal, but even with this season, I don't see a ton of FA hype around him.  We're talking about a guy who was non-tendered (I think) before this season and is making less than his arbitration projection.  The great season will raise his value significantly but I don't think he's getting $15-20m a year.

But I'm not super good at this stuff so I could be way off

3,9 fWAR in 2021 and likely a 5 fWAR performance this year. Even with a horrific 2022, he's going to get paid pretty well. Remember, even Mancini got 2/14 and he has 1 total season over 1.5 fWAR

[Rob]

Yeah, Candelario is getting paid. He's not going to get $100M, but 4-5 years at ~$15M per season isn't out of the question.

While it's a nice story having him back on the team, I'm not convinced it's a wise expenditure of our funds. I'm less than convinced he's going to age particularly well. You pay his contract demands when you're already a strong contender looking simply to shore up weaknesses and go far in the postseason, not to lock in as a foundational piece for a contender. It'd be like signing Ben Zobrist without already having the core players...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Candelario is probably an acquisition/extension that's greater than the sum of his production.  The ability to play 1B and 3B as well as switch hit affords a lot of flexibility to keep the best possible lineup day to day, and he doesn't have any dramatic flaws as a hitter that make a lineup heavy on a certain type.  I don't know if I love him being the best bat added to the 2024 roster though, and getting a plus SP, Bellinger or similar impact bat, plus Candelario might be too tough an ask.

As for his contract, looking at the deals given out last year, the number that sticks out for me is around 60 million.  I would be a little surprised to see him get 5 years at his age and even 4 might be questionable, but for the Cubs' purpose giving him Benintendi's deal minus a year may be preferable to giving out an Abreu deal for LT purposes.

[champaignchris]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

what alternatives are available?

Matt Chapman will be a free agent.

Chapman's obviously a better glove, but Jeimer is a year younger and actually stacks up against him better than I thought with the stick throughout his career, and is having a significantly better year with the bat this season.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

As always, it depends on what type of deal he's looking for. He's had a career year in 2023 , but he was awful in 2022, In 2021 he was good, posting almost 4 fWAR. If he's looking at like 4/72, even 4/80, I could see that, but if he's trying to cash in on this year for something like 6/150 then hard pass. 

I dont think any team would come close to that the of deal. At the end of the day he's probably a 110-120 bat with defense that's never been as strong as it's been this year. 4/80 probably exceeds my expectations. He might get 4/60 though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Wow thats much higher than I was expecting.  I was thinking like 3/$34m or 4/$45m or something like that.   I guess if his agent is good he can position this season into a huge deal, but even with this season, I don't see a ton of FA hype around him.  We're talking about a guy who was non-tendered (I think) before this season and is making less than his arbitration projection.  The great season will raise his value significantly but I don't think he's getting $15-20m a year.

But I'm not super good at this stuff so I could be way off

I agree with your sentiment here. I can’t see a world where he gets anything near $100m.