Dansby is back, Young is done

[jersey cubs fan]

https://theathletic.com/realtime/qWMofkVRdHzn/?source=app_brief_share
does this pave the way for the return of Mervis? Because every cubs conversation has to be centered around Mervis 

[JD94]

I would guess we don’t see Mervis until after the TDL. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

53 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I would guess we don’t see Mervis until after the TDL. 

Yeah, this makes sense. It’s not as if nine days is going to impact much anyway. 

[JD94]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, this makes sense. It’s not as if nine days is going to impact much anyway. 

Yep. I expect Mervis back and Perlaza up for sure to see what we have in those 2 specifically after the deadline. Hopefully they actually play Mervis every day this stint. Sitting him half the time and not playing him against LHP is doing a disservice to him. 

[PackLandVA]

Mervis is still down working on a minor swing change, right?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

23 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Yep. I expect Mervis back and Perlaza up for sure to see what we have in those 2 specifically after the deadline. Hopefully they actually play Mervis every day this stint. Sitting him half the time and not playing him against LHP is doing a disservice to him. 

I would be surprised if Perlaza comes up.  He's not on the 40 man, and while that's potentially not a huge barrier depending on the deadline outcomes, the OF 40 man has several weird cases(Alcantara, Davis, Canario) where they may not want to rush to add someone who isn't a locked on MLB contributor.  With his defensive limitations and lack of super high end offensive production it's very likely a bench profile, and I don't think they'll be in a rush when you can give Velazquez already there(and who can help in CF if Bellinger is traded), plus potentially Canario later in the summer if things go well there.

[JD94]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I would be surprised if Perlaza comes up.  He's not on the 40 man, and while that's potentially not a huge barrier depending on the deadline outcomes, the OF 40 man has several weird cases(Alcantara, Davis, Canario) where they may not want to rush to add someone who isn't a locked on MLB contributor.  With his defensive limitations and lack of super high end offensive production it's very likely a bench profile, and I don't think they'll be in a rush when you can give Velazquez already there(and who can help in CF if Bellinger is traded), plus potentially Canario later in the summer if things go well there.

He’s about to turn 25 and rule 5 eligible. He’s posted 3 straight years of 120+ wRC+ seasons. You have to see what you have before you let him walk for nothing. The 40 man deal isn’t an obstacle as you said after the deadline. There will be plenty of 40 man room. If he’s a 4th OF / DH / solid MLB bench player that gives you good AB’s, well that’s pretty valuable. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

He’s about to turn 25 and rule 5 eligible. He’s posted 3 straight years of 120+ wRC+ seasons. You have to see what you have before you let him walk for nothing. The 40 man deal isn’t an obstacle as you said after the deadline. There will be plenty of 40 man room. If he’s a 4th OF / DH / solid MLB bench player that gives you good AB’s, well that’s pretty valuable. 

You can add Perlaza to the 40 man after this year without giving him an MLB audition, that's not a problem.  If anything that's preferable because you're not using an option year on the limited PA he can scrounge up between LF/1B/DH on a roster that already has Happ, Morel, Amaya, and likely Mervis.  And after the year you may have taken more decisive action on some of the weird situations I mentioned(plus Mancini/Barnhart), so those option years are years of greater opportunity.

[Tom Emanski]

Young is the definition of a 4A player. 

I was kind of hopeful that he might be able to help the team some this go around. 

[JD94]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You can add Perlaza to the 40 man after this year without giving him an MLB audition, that's not a problem.  If anything that's preferable because you're not using an option year on the limited PA he can scrounge up between LF/1B/DH on a roster that already has Happ, Morel, Amaya, and likely Mervis.  And after the year you may have taken more decisive action on some of the weird situations I mentioned(plus Mancini/Barnhart), so those option years are years of greater opportunity.

I mean Perlaza either has a role or he doesn’t. Again, he’s about to turn 25. It’s time to find out if he’s a somebody or a nobody. What better time to start finding that out than the last 2 months of this year after we sell and have punted the rest of the year? Same with Mervis. I don’t understand why you would want to wait? If Perlaza and Mervis suck, I’d rather let them suck when we aren’t trying to win than suck next year in the Majors when we are actually trying to win. That doesn’t seem like an adequate plan to me. Saving a option year on Perlaza means very little to me. At some point you have to give him a shot. That time is now. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I mean Perlaza either has a role or he doesn’t. Again, he’s about to turn 25. It’s time to find out if he’s a somebody or a nobody. What better time to start finding that out than the last 2 months of this year after we sell and have punted the rest of the year? Same with Mervis. I don’t understand why you would want to wait? If Perlaza and Mervis suck, I’d rather let them suck when we aren’t trying to win than suck next year in the Majors when we are actually trying to win. That doesn’t seem like an adequate plan to me. Saving a option year on Perlaza means very little to me. At some point you have to give him a shot. That time is now. 

I’m not going to be upset if they give Perlaza a roster spot, I just don’t think it’s necessary or likely.  He’s a guy whose likely outcome is a yo-yo bench bat, and in the short term there are players with greater present or future upside that works against him getting any significant amount of time.

[JD94]

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I’m not going to be upset if they give Perlaza a roster spot, I just don’t think it’s necessary or likely.  He’s a guy whose likely outcome is a yo-yo bench bat, and in the short term there are players with greater present or future upside that works against him getting any significant amount of time.

I don’t disagree with what his ceiling is, which is likely a bench bat / 4th OF at best case scenario. I’m just saying, you have to have guys like that on the roster. Every team has a Perlaza. If he can be that guy for cheap for the next 6-7 years, then it’s a win. There will be plenty of playing time available in a couple of weeks. There is absolutely zero scenario where a guy like Mancini or Wisdom should take playing time away from guys like Perlaza or Mervis the rest of the year. We can be 99% sure Perlaza is nothing, but if Mancini and Wisdom are 100% nothing moving forward, then it’s a no brainer that you play the prospect with a 127 wRC+ in AAA over them. Obviously the same applies to Mervis, who is much more intriguing than Perlaza. That’s my point. You have literally nothing to lose by calling up Perlaza after the deadline and giving him PT to see if he can hit at this level. Again, he’s rule 5 eligible. At some point he has to get an opportunity or you’re just letting him walk for nothing. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Again, if you like Perlaza you don’t have to promote him to avoid Rule 5 consequences, players get added to the 40 man without MLB experience all the time.  He is a bench bat without positional value, I won’t get worked up if he’s on the roster over Mancini, but there are players who should get regular time instead(plus potential deadline acquisitions).  Adding him to the 40 man just so he can play once or twice a week isn’t some big mistake but it’s not urgent or consequential. 

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Again, if you like Perlaza you don’t have to promote him to avoid Rule 5 consequences, players get added to the 40 man without MLB experience all the time.  He is a bench bat without positional value, I won’t get worked up if he’s on the roster over Mancini, but there are players who should get regular time instead(plus potential deadline acquisitions).  Adding him to the 40 man just so he can play once or twice a week isn’t some big mistake but it’s not urgent or consequential. 

You don’t have to promote him, but what’s the point of adding him to the 40 man if you’re never going to give him a shot? If you think you might give him a shot one day, then it should be for the next 2 months when the results don’t matter. As he’s nearing 25, he is what he is likely at this point. You either think there’s a solid bench bat in there or you don’t. I would be more than fine if I never see Mancini or Wisdom take another AB for the Chicago Cubs. It also makes zero logical sense for them to take any AB’s over any single prospect who have even a slimmer of hope of playing a role on the next competitive team. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

30 minutes ago, JD94 said:

You don’t have to promote him, but what’s the point of adding him to the 40 man if you’re never going to give him a shot? If you think you might give him a shot one day, then it should be for the next 2 months when the results don’t matter. As he’s nearing 25, he is what he is likely at this point. You either think there’s a solid bench bat in there or you don’t. I would be more than fine if I never see Mancini or Wisdom take another AB for the Chicago Cubs. It also makes zero logical sense for them to take any AB’s over any single prospect who have even a slimmer of hope of playing a role on the next competitive team. 

If you like Perlaza you can add him in the winter when more dust has settled, but you also don’t have to.  I’m all for trying to find internal solutions but this line of thinking (specifically throwing away Wisdom) is oversimplifying the roster nuances involved and is generally more hopeful thinking than anything.  There are 8 different players with at least 50 PA at Iowa who have outhit Perlaza this year(including some MLB names you might be ready to move on from).  He has very little defensive value or prospect pedigree.  If they bring him up because of necessity or they see something in his performance, great.  I hope he carves out a role and hits well.  But he is not banging down the door and forcing the issue, and there are many options of a similar caliber who arguably can and should get that opportunity instead.

[Jason Ross]

I'm with JD here; I think Yonathon Perlaza will get a chance in 2023 at some point after the sell-off.  I'm not so convinced there are many in Iowa deserving of a chance, and the MLB roster itself has plenty of deadweight.  Currently, on the Iowa roster, Mervis needs to be promotion #1, but after him, I think Perlaza is probably #2.  Velazquez is not good; he's got a 29% K% in AAA to go with a 102 wRC+.  He had 200+ PA's last year that resulted in replacement level play, and he's not a real CF).  Canario needs a summer in AAA to build back up after his injuries, Chase Strumpf has been terrible, Slaughter has a 98 wRC+ and is over hlf way to 27, Bote's a hasbeen who's beating up on AAA, Edwin Rios sucks, .  There should be PA's for Perlaza as well; the the Cubs will have the DH (Mervis should be playing a ton of 1b, Amaya playing C).  And there's a handful of spaces to open on the 40man.  The Cubs should probably find out if there's something to Perlaza or not before they're forced to leave him open to the Rule V if they have any belief he's a useful MLB hitter.  Honestly, the only other player with an argument for me is Luis Vazquez, but Vazquez is a completely different type (not really a good DH option, as he's a glove first player).  I'm not really counting Madrigal here, as he's on a rehab assignment.  

I think Perlaza is a questionable MLB hitter personally, but his development, especially over the last 2 months of so, has been impressive and I can't ignore it.  His 127 wRC+ is really solid.  He's shown impressive development in his left handed swing especially.  And he's not too old for the level.

Edited July 22, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[JD94]

58 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^ Perlaza's not really a good DH option either. For instance I've seen his past three wRC+ recited as his ticket in but no mention of the .337 (2021, as a 23 YO COF/DH at High A)and .349 (2023) BABIPs in two of those seasons. He doesn't address any actual weaknesses of an offense that needs to hit more hard flyballs, two things he doesn't seem particularly good at doing. If he doesn't hit he becomes a black hole on both the active roster and 40, which I assume will be more tolerated than like Mancini because he's cheap but also doesn't actually help. Vazquez could probably do more to help the team, the defense is good but could be much better, and I'm not eager to see him at the ML level for Cubs this year either

 

2 things:

1) Are you also concerned that PCA’s BABIP is .347? Btw his .347 BABIP is his lowest at any level he’s played at. 
 

2) Nobody is saying Perlaza should be an every day player or that he’s being slept on or that he’s even a good major league player potentially. I feel like pretty much everybody is on the same page here that he’s a possible 4th OF, bench player, DH option that deserves a look. 
 

Why would you not be eager to see him at the ML level this year? You do know the Cubs are selling, right? This team is going to be even worse in about 2 weeks. Who cares if Perlaza gets playing time or some rando from the bleachers gets playing time? The fact is, Perlaza is in his 3rd straight year with a wRC+ over 120. He’s about to turn 25. He’s rule V eligible. The big league team is about to suck even worse the next 2 months. We aren’t playing for anything. There’s going to be plenty of 40 man space. Bring him up and see what he is. See if he can carve out a role or if he’s just a AAAA type of player. It hurts literally nothing. He has earned the opportunity. Nobody is acting like he’s a star player. 
 

Yes, I wish every single position player on our team had a 40% FB% with 90th percentile EV’s. That’s not possible though. And just because a player doesn’t have perfect underlying numbers to be a super star doesn’t mean he can’t have a role. 
 

I didn’t have defending Yonathan Perlaza on my bingo card this morning. I also didn’t think anyone could or would actually pushback that he doesn’t deserve an opportunity in a lost season when we are about to sell off a handful of our good players. Maybe if I said “Perlaza should be called up because I think he should be our starting CF” I could see pushback? All I’m saying is this is 3 straight years he’s proven to be a pretty solid minor league hitter and he should get the opportunity to show if he can or can’t be a depth piece big leaguer in a lost season. 
 

Rant over for good. No since in continuing this conversation. Especially not for a lowly prospect like Perlaza. It doesn’t matter to me either way, just seems obvious that giving him a shot in 2 weeks hurts literally nothing. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm with JD here; I think Yonathon Perlaza will get a chance in 2023 at some point after the sell-off.  I'm not so convinced there are many in Iowa deserving of a chance, and the MLB roster itself has plenty of deadweight.

I should try to distill the broader point that's driving the back and forth from my end a bit(which is more macro than about JD's words specifically), because I don't have particularly strong feelings about Perlaza.  If they bring him up I hope he hits and sticks, and I doubt they'll jeopardize the development of anyone I think deserves it more to do so in that case.  I also don't think much of his future impact, without more cartoonish AAA performance or other pedigree there's not much reason he clears the high bar to be a significant contributor with where he lives on the defensive spectrum.  As such I don't think there's much urgency to make irreversible decisions(cutting Mancini, adding Perlaza to the 40 man) to facilitate his 2023 debut.

That said, I think a lot of fans(some who I respect their analytical thinking, like Brett/Bleacher Nation) have fallen into a trap in how they think about the deadline and remainder of the season.  It starts with the buy/sell binary, which in this situation has never made sense to me.  Jed has set the roster to continue to try to be competitive in 2024-2026, and he almost certainly doesn't have the job security to blow it up and start over.  You see this in last year's deadline where despite heavy rumors he didn't do anything but trade a few relievers, and one of those was for an immediate contributor.  Add in that there's about 3 teams that are looking to trade away any quality outside of rentals and the likely outcome is a minimal trade market or one that the Cubs participate in at both ends in searching for 2024 contributors.

The related issue to this is fans have not only been conditioned into that buy/sell binary, but that August/September is an open tryout for new contributors once you've stripped the roster in your Sell-off.  There's nothing wrong with the idea that post-deadline you prioritize some things differently, but this gets warped into the idea that anyone currently on the fringes of the roster has no use if they weren't able to fetch a prospect at the deadline.  There's plenty of marginal roster players who could have a 2024 role even if they had struggles in 2023, and it's far from certain that casting them aside just to make way for a player with limited ceiling is the right way to maximize your talent to be the best you can be in the short and long term. This is magnified in Perlaza's case by him being a defensive zero, because he has a higher bar to clear to be useful and more competition for the spots where he could fit in.  Mastrobuoni, Wisdom and Madrigal(all of who are hitting well at the MLB level most recently and exceeded Perlaza's AAA line in limited time there) can be similarly useful as a good Perlaza outcome without unexpected leaps at the plate thanks to their defensive value, and players with greater pedigree and ceiling(Amaya, Morel, Mervis, a potential deadline acquisition) sap potential opportunity along with starter incumbents(Happ/Suzuki).