7/19 - Nationals (TBD) vs Cubs (Hendricks): 7:05pm, Marquee

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

Actually, you're the one falling victim to the gambler's fallacy here 

Gambler's Fallacy requires the event to be random.  Patrick Wisdom's talent level is not random.  While any PA is anecdotal, there's a reason certain statistics are more predictive and can give us insight as to how a player will likely play.  The reality is, on any given day, Patrick Wisdom is likely to play to his talent level...and his talent level is that of an organizational up/down player who's capable of compiling statistics given sample sizes, but generally, isn't very good.

 

I didn't mean to make a direct 1:1 comparison here from Wisdom to Gambler's Fallacy, only to highlight the idea that "riding the hot hand" requires the team to understand that you only win when you predict when a player will no longer be hot before they go cold.  With Wisdom, it's more likely any given day, he plays to his true talent level than to be "hot".  

Edited July 20, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[javy knows my name]

You're acting like we're talking about playing Wisdom at the expense of Machado because he's hot right now. The coin flip I was alluding to was not how Wisdom will play on a given day, but rather the toss-up decision to play him over Mastrobuoni. He's probably a marginally better decision right now because he tends to hit homers in bunches and he's such on a streak 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

You're acting like we're talking about playing Wisdom at the expense of Machado because he's hot right now. The coin flip I was alluding to was not how Wisdom will play on a given day, but rather the toss-up decision to play him over Mastrobuoni. He's probably a marginally better decision right now because he tends to hit homers in bunches and he's such on a streak 

I'm not sure he's marginally better.  I will be very candid; I generally don't believe much in "hot streaks".  I think good games can come in bunches, and sometimes they're spread out, and that many times it's a correlation is not causation thing.  Secondly, Patrick Wisdom has been an 80 wRC+ hitter for the bulk of the season; he's also a highly negative fielder (DH level at 3b over his last 2 years and getting worse).  The Cubs pitched a GB heavy arm yesterday.  The sample size on Mastrobuoni at 3b is very small, but has suggested he's a good defender there (+1 in 100 innings.  We need more data to make any sweeping determinations there, as 100 is small sample for defensive data).  There's logic to follow as to why Mastrobuoni got the start.

 

Overall, I don't think it really matters if Wisdom or Mastrobuoni starts most nights, and if you dig back a few posts, I said exactly that, so we're in agreement.  I think both are trash, neither belong on the MLB roster.  I just don't think Patrick Wisdom's "hot streak" is much of a justification, however.  Even if we put stock into the "hot streak" the reality is, it's always more likely to end than continue on any given night.  

[CubUgly]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Riding the hot hand is a practice in gambling.  Degenerate gamblers will ride the hot hand into the ground, believing that a good run in the dice/cards, which is attributable mostly to anecdotal events, will continue and that the best thing to do is go until you're no "hot" any more.  What does that result in?  A net-negative balance.  Patrick Wisdom is more likely every game to not be "hot" any more, than he is to be hot, because Patrick Wisdom is bad.  You have to know when to put the dice down.  

I don't agree with the analogy. The dude hits home runs in streaks....always has and always will, and when the alternative is a guy who's gotten like 5 hits all year and none of them homers, just because it's a right handed pitcher I'm going with the guy who can run into a homer.  And the defensive difference is minimal, neither are all that good defensively.  We can agree to disagree and I think we will - but Wisdom should have started last night. 

[chibears55]

Well playing Wisdom tonight ( 2 errors ) has cost Stroman and helped the Cardinals to a 5 run lead and he'll probably K twice with no hits..