The Cubs and .500

[mul21]

Two thoughts here:

1. I think we've seen about the worst negative variance we could have in terms of results from this team (looking at RD and the timing of when the pen has crapped the bed in particular plus the poor performance with RISP during cold stretches).

2. I think the goal is to have all those 3-4 WAR players home grown and affordable so they can go out and get the 5-8 WAR guy(s) in FA to put them over the top.  As a team operating in Chicago with Wrigley as an asset, I don't think that's an unreasonable approach, it just hasn't come close to fruition at this point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The gaping hole in that comparison is the Cubs still have nowhere near the level of Minor League talent they had in 2014-2015, and they aren't ever going to get there by picking in the middle of the first round every year.  We could see the 2015/2016 team taking shape well in advance and it was clear that the team was building to something.  That simply isn't the case now.  The Minor League system is "ok", but lacks any real impact talent for the foreseeable future.  The top prospect is PCA and he might be a nice player, but even he doesn't really move the needle.  If the goal was to rebuild the farm system from terrible to slightly above average and field a Major League team that can look like a fringe contender year after year if you squint really hard, then mission accomplished.

We're only really talking about MLB outcomes though, the 2023 Cubs have more good players(I'd venture a lot more?) than the 2014 team is another difference.  *How* you make additional leaps to perennial playoff contender is not assumed to be through graduating stars from the farm system.

[Tryptamine]

36 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I feel like this line of conversation has memory wiped how everyone has talked about the team for months, either that or we've forgotten what it's like to follow a mediocre team.  On the former, very few people thought this was a do or die situation in terms of making the playoffs.  A lot of folks described it as trying to be between the 2014 and 2015 seasons where they'd be a decent team and springboard from there into consistent playoff contention/appearances(especially with Heyward and Hendricks' money off the books).  80% of us said the team would win 85 or fewer games(and a big chunk was 5+ games fewer), so given the line for playoff competitiveness most years we were collectively bearish on that possibility.  So that leaves the latter, which is understandable.  The Cubs have won between 76 and 90 games just once since the Hendry era, and that was 2019(84 wins) which was naturally going to feel like a huge disappointment.  Mediocre teams are frustrating, they lose more than you feel they should, and they leave you feeling miles away one week and then counting your what-ifs when they put it together the next.  I pegged them at 84 wins, and while that's what their pythag says they've earned with their play so far, it's been a disappointing year, but also one that is part of the reasonable set of outcomes when you're projected to be a middling team.

It's not that they're mediocre, I myself had them ad a a 77-78 win squad before the season so, it's that it's very hard to see this team as considerably better in the future. They're going to lose both Bellinger and Stroman, so 2 of their 3 most valuable players, and will have to fill 2 rotation spots assuming they don't pick up Hendrick's option. 3B is a black hole, 1B is a black hole, the DH is a black hole, the corner OF spots are average at best. How can they possibly address all of this next offseason? Realistically at this time you're going into 2024 with this roster

 

C- Amaya/Barnhart

1b- Mervis/Mancini

2b- Nico/Morel

SS- Dansby/Nico

3B- Wisdom/Morel/Madrigal

LF- Happ

CF- Tauchmann

RF- Seiya

DH- Wisdom/Mancini/Morel

 

SP: Steele/Smyly/Taillon and maybe Hendricks

 

How do you fix this? 

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We're only really talking about MLB outcomes though, the 2023 Cubs have more good players(I'd venture a lot more?) than the 2014 team is another difference.  *How* you make additional leaps to perennial playoff contender is not assumed to be through graduating stars from the farm system.

That assumes Jed is capable of finding an alternate path to make the leap to playoff contender with the resources he currently has.  I struggle with that possibility.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's not that they're mediocre, I myself had them ad a a 77-78 win squad before the season so, it's that it's very hard to see this team as considerably better in the future. They're going to lose both Bellinger and Stroman, so 2 of their 3 most valuable players, and will have to fill 2 rotation spots assuming they don't pick up Hendrick's option. 3B is a black hole, 1B is a black hole, the DH is a black hole, the corner OF spots are average at best. How can they possibly address all of this next offseason? Realistically at this time you're going into 2024 with this roster

 

C- Amaya/Barnhart

1b- Mervis/Mancini

2b- Nico/Morel

SS- Dansby/Nico

3B- Wisdom/Morel/Madrigal

LF- Happ

CF- Tauchmann

RF- Seiya

DH- Wisdom/Mancini/Morel

 

SP: Steele/Smyly/Taillon and maybe Hendricks

 

How do you fix this? 

That roster is about 75 million under this year's LT payroll even with no increases, though I'd say it's very likely Gomes is back and it's more like 70. You also likely have some type of contributor via a Bellinger/Stroman trade or at a minimum a comp pick to make sure you're definitely getting a QO FA.  Given the last 2 offseasons have seen them add one big money position player and one big money SP on top of smaller acquisitions, you can start with your favorite combo of Urias/Nola/Giolito/Stroman and Chapman/Candelario/Bellinger, plus maybe some SP depth, and someone like Bader who could be a savvy bridge to PCA.  The trade market opens up further possibilities given the farm system depth, and they could also kill two birds with one stone and try to win the Ohtani sweepstakes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

That assumes Jed is capable of finding an alternate path to make the leap to playoff contender with the resources he currently has.  I struggle with that possibility.

I'm not gonna be the one to tell you 'no Jed is definitely gonna win a title, just wait and see', I've said before that a lot of the anger directed at ownership really ought to be placed towards Jed.  But at the same time, my main objection is the insinuation that Jed assumed he had a 90 game winner on his hands when really the plan all along has been a more gradual ramp to playoff contention.  Maybe that escalator gets stuck at 78 wins or 84 wins, I won't begrudge anyone for lacking faith that he's gonna get them over the hump, but I think that progression has always been what they planned on.

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That roster is about 75 million under this year's LT payroll even with no increases, though I'd say it's very likely Gomes is back and it's more like 70. You also likely have some type of contributor via a Bellinger/Stroman trade or at a minimum a comp pick to make sure you're definitely getting a QO FA.  Given the last 2 offseasons have seen them add one big money position player and one big money SP on top of smaller acquisitions, you can start with your favorite combo of Urias/Nola/Giolito/Stroman and Chapman/Candelario/Bellinger, plus maybe some SP depth, and someone like Bader who could be a savvy bridge to PCA.  The trade market opens up further possibilities given the farm system depth, and they could also kill two birds with one stone and try to win the Ohtani sweepstakes.

Adding one of those pitchers and Bellinger/Candelario/Capman just gets us right back to where we are now and likely worse because it's unlikely any of those 4 pitchers match what Stroman has done so far. I'm not even going to consider Ohtani an option as Jed has shown that he isn't willing to swim in the deep end of the FA pool. He's more content going after the guys in the 2nd tier. 

[CubinNY]

I think it is a much tougher environment to build a team without a robust development program. The Cubs may be in the beginning stages of it, at least with pitching. But I look at a guy like Christian Hernandez who was a huge bonus kid that everyone wanted. He gets to the minors and he's the same kid who was signed. There is no development. They are terrible at it. I can see why they draft high-floor/low-ceiling college players, less development is needed.  

I certainly don't know what the answers are, but the Cubs appear to me to be a long way from contending for a WS. If we're making comparisons, they are a lot closer to the 2012 Cubs than they are to the 2014 version of the team. 

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I guess what are the alternatives if he didn't think that?.

Maybe the telltale sign for how to view this team is in their record when they actually have their good players available.  

No, that’s not how baseball works. Nico Hoerner has missed time with injury every year he’s been a pro. Ian Happ has 600 PA in exactly one season. You can’t excuse poor play by these guys not always being in the lineup together when history tells you these guys aren’t going to be in the lineup together. 
 

the bottom line is Jed guaranteed a lot of money and term to a lot of guys who aren’t playing well, and it’s not just this year. Whether or not it’s injury related does not matter. He thought black hole production at catcher was fine as long as the defense was there and a lack of pop elsewhere would also magically be covered up by defense. 
 

patrick wisdom and Eric hosmer are not major league caliber starters and they intentionally went into the season with these guys as starters, knowing full well that the actual good starters on the team weren’t very good. 
 

this season was a half hearted attempt to put a finger in the dyke of ticket sales and viewership. It’s blown up in their face. But that’s what happens when you intentionally get bad. It’s really hard to get good again. And Jed isn’t good enough at his job to take shortcuts. 
 

now they are hamstrung with a lot of guaranteed money owed to guys with not a lot of guaranteed production. 
 

it’s gonna take a while 

[Irrelevant Dude]

4 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

now they are hamstrung with a lot of guaranteed money owed to guys with not a lot of guaranteed production. 

"Hamstrung" is a strong word.  With the exception of Taillon, most of the other large-ish contracts the Cubs have given out are guys who are likely going to play to or exceed the value of their deals over time.  So while I agree that the Cubs don't have nearly enough guaranteed production and have multiple huge holes on the roster, I don't think they have a problem with dead money.  

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don't want to defend Cubs too much here, but they literally signed one of the best position players in baseball since the pandemic this offseason. I get Swanson isn't the most famous or obvious or expensive but he's also handily been the best of the big name FA SSs, all of whom were most desired for the beer muscles spending the most to spend the most would give the fanbase. Ohtani, who has all the juicy periphs Cubs need, has much more in common with Swanson among last year's deep end FAs

While Swanson has been the best of the big 4 this year, he was definitely viewed as the worst of them in free agency. So the point remains, they haven't gone after the top guys at their respective positions. Grabbing Taillon instead of Kodai Senga was a huge difference maker this season. If Senga is on this team, the Cubs likely aren't selling right now. 

[Derwood]

I'll know the Cubs are serious about competing when they sign Jon Lester

[Transmogrified Tiger]

28 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

No, that’s not how baseball works. Nico Hoerner has missed time with injury every year he’s been a pro. Ian Happ has 600 PA in exactly one season. You can’t excuse poor play by these guys not always being in the lineup together when history tells you these guys aren’t going to be in the lineup together.

Only having all 3 of these guys on the roster(not even in the lineup) for 50% of games is unexpected, it doesn't mean the expectation was 100%.  Again, the team was built to be average, and needed particularly good fortune to be more than that.  It has had in my opinion slightly bad fortune(the specifics of injuries, underperforming pythag, etc) so they've dropped the one game/month they're off of being a .500 club.  Say that's not good enough or shouldn't have been the expectation if you like, I wouldn't necessarily agree but that's not what I'm arguing.  The argument is that Jed didn't build this team as if it was a 90 win finished product, yet there's multiple folks openly wondering why he thought this team was good enough to be a 90 win finished product.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, Derwood said:

I'll know the Cubs are serious about competing when they sign Jon Lester

Don't give Hoyer any ideas.

 

[CubinNY]

This seems to be the defalut "bitch about the Cubs" thread

Sharma has a new article in The Athletic about Mervis. The Cubs decision to keep him down is demonstrably dumb. It seems like they do things for spite or to prove they are smart or something. 

Quote

But that still doesn’t answer for the absence of Mervis. The same scout who had asked about him started to wonder if the Cubs didn’t believe in Mervis, a 25-year-old prospect who had proven he could hit at Triple A. So, what was holding him back? But a source with the Cubs indicated there was a reason Mervis was still in the minors.

The Cubs are trying to win games right now and Mervis is working on very specific but small mechanical adjustments with Iowa hitting coach John Mallee. He’s also focusing on getting back to making the type of swing decisions that helped him get to the big leagues in the first place. To work on these specific details of his game, Mervis has to play every day. The Cubs prefer that not happen with the pressure of trying to perform and stick in the big leagues.

They also believe they aren’t in a position to give Mervis the regular playing time he needs, so instead he’s doing so at Triple A. The message being sent is that the Cubs aren’t at the point of the season where development trumps trying to win. Of course, many would argue that Mervis working on things with the big-league club can’t be worse than the production the team is getting from first base. In addition to the struggling Young, Trey Mancini has a 62 wRC+ since the start of June (and that was prior to his 0-for-2 performance Tuesday night).

While working on these things with Iowa and playing regularly, Mervis has slashed .313/.452/.537 in 20 games since being sent back down to the minors. It’s clear he’s too talented for Triple A, but what’s still unknown is whether he can provide an impact at the highest level. That’s something that has to be figured out this season by the Cubs as they enter the offseason searching for help at the infield corners and looking for more thump in their lineup.

https://theathletic.com/4702014/2023/07/18/matt-mervis-cubs-first-base-prospect/

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Man, I want this “prospects are the only people who can save us” mentality to burn in the hell it came out of. Mervis stopped hitting flyballs, is a much less interesting hitter without them 

I'd like you to write a coherent thought, so here we are. 

No one is saying Mervis is a savior. 

[mul21]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'd like you to write a coherent thought, so here we are. 

No one is saying Mervis is a savior. 

In his defense, that's probably near the top of the list of his posts for succinctness and coherence.

[CubinNY]

I mean, other team's scouts are questioning the decision. 

[muntjack]

21 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Just that the organization is being “demonstrably dumb” and “spiteful” for not having some 25 YO you just found out existed last year on the ML roster. They called him up, handed him the job even, and it went nowhere. What’s supposed to happen next? More free opportunities with no changes? Must be nice! 

They didn't hand him the job.  He had 99 PAs, Tom.  The first handful were against brutal lefties and then he got platooned and things got more and more sporadic from there. 

I'm guessing the lack of flyballs is precisely because of this adjustment they're making in Iowa.  

The dude hits the ever-loving hell out of the ball and acquitted himself pretty well at 1b.  He is clearly better than Mancini, and has real upside.  Not playing him is stupid, full stop. 

 

[mul21]

Because one has 25 HRs in 6.5 seasons on MiL baseball and the other has 54 in less than 2.5. This team is sorely lacking in power and Mervis has it in spades compared to any other currently viable option.  This isn't hard math.

[Derwood]

This thread has taken a weird turn. We're really comparing Mervis to Miles Mastrouboni?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Mervis decision comes down to 3 overlapping things:

1. How Mervis best becomes a successful big league hitter, can he demonstrate in AAA that he's made the adjustments or can that only come with MLB reps?  If he can demonstrate that in AAA has he done it, so that he's not set up to fail again with a promotion?

2. Is the team ready to prioritize 2024 over 2023?  Mervis didn't really make the case for more PA while he was here(and his AAA performance while good isn't a notable improvement over his previous stint), and right now when folks are healthy you have Morel, Wisdom, Amaya, and Madrigal all playing well of late that would conflict with Mervis getting everyday at bats.

3. Is the team ready to eat Mancini's 2024 money?  Sending down one of the folks above is necessary to get Mervis on a roster when Swanson/Madrigal are healthy, which is a tough pill to swallow when all of them are playing well and could have a 2024 role.  You can bypass that by getting rid of Mancini, and while they clearly aren't going to let Mancini's 7 million dictate the roster build, it's an irrevocable decision that they may want to have more time to make.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Just that the organization is being “demonstrably dumb” and “spiteful” for not having some 25 YO you just found out existed last year on the ML roster. They called him up, handed him the job even, and it went nowhere. What’s supposed to happen next? Free opportunities with no changes? Must be nice! 

This is being intentionally obtuse. Firstly, as was previously mentioned, it was 99 PAs. Trying to draw long term conclusions from that just doesn't work. Even with that, He was showing significant batted ball improvement.

 

From May 5th to June 1st

27.5 SOFT% 30 MED% 42.5 HARD% 17.5 LD%, 52.5 GB%, 30 FB% 90.6 EV

 

From June 1st until he was sent down

22.2 SOFT% 33.3 MED% 44.4 HARD% 22.2 LD% 33.3 GB% 44.4 FB% 92.1 EV

 

Though the results weren't there yet, he was clearly starting to figure things out(thanks .118 babip). He was putting more balls in the air and the quality of contact was spiking. 

 

[Tryptamine]

double

Edited July 19, 2023 by Tryptamine

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

You're calling 99 PAs a small sample size for long term calls (which I'm not making anyway - not calling him up today for full time work isn't a forever decision) and then telling me to really really pay attention to his last 18 PAs over 8 games

 

 

Yes, if you're going to imply he failed based on 99 PAs then I can also use a small sample size to say he was adjusting. The point being, there's zero reason he shouldn't be given another chance and he never should have been sent down to begin with.