5/6/23 Marlins (Hoeing) vs Cubs (Smyly): 1:20pm Marquee

[Andy]

Marlins get the first 2 on. I can't wait to watch them effortlessly turn this into 2 runs as if the book on hitting with RISP isn't written in hieroglyphics.

[UMFan83]

I haven't been sitting down to actually watch the Cubs lately but there have been about 7 times over the last week where I've checked the score and saw the Cubs had RISP and 0 outs.  Excited, I'll throw the game on my phone to see what happens.  Only 1 time have the Cubs actually scored a run.  Just now when I saw 1st and 2nd and 0 outs, I just laughed and turned it on expecting the worst.

Teams get in funks like this, but this is beyond awful, particularly with the gauntlet scheduling coming up.  They're going to be in bad shape come mid-June if they don't start playing better and quickly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

16 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Teams get in funks like this, but this is beyond awful, particularly with the gauntlet scheduling coming up.  They're going to be in bad shape come mid-June if they don't start playing better and quickly.

I get that we don't want to completely abandon our preconceptions of team quality after a month, but I also feel like 30+ games is at least somewhat instructive.  With that in mind, the Cubs have had half of their games against teams .500 or better(plus another 9 against teams 1 game under).  After this series, they finish the month with 12 of 21 games .500 or better.  There's also days off each of the next 3 weeks to avoid long consecutive stretches wearing out the pen.  Or in other words, I don't think we need to build up the upcoming schedule as a behemoth now that we have a sense for how teams are actually playing relative to preseason expectations.

[CubinNY]

When Mervis turn out to be really good, I’m never going to let Kyle forget it. 
 I’m convinced he going to be really good. 

[UMFan83]

Ahh I guess its me then, since i turned it off and the Cubs scored.

[mfcubs22]

The Cubs are also 7th in MLB in BA with RISP. 17th in OPS/wRC+. Just some reverting back to the mean with how great they were to start the year. It’s an unfortunate stretch, but overall pretty close to where I expect them to finish the season offensively. 

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I get that we don't want to completely abandon our preconceptions of team quality after a month, but I also feel like 30+ games is at least somewhat instructive.  With that in mind, the Cubs have had half of their games against teams .500 or better(plus another 9 against teams 1 game under).  After this series, they finish the month with 12 of 21 games .500 or better.  There's also days off each of the next 3 weeks to avoid long consecutive stretches wearing out the pen.  Or in other words, I don't think we need to build up the upcoming schedule as a behemoth now that we have a sense for how teams are actually playing relative to preseason expectations.

I see what you are saying but 30 games is still just a small slice of the season.  Last year on May 7th the Phillies were 11-15, the Braves were 13-16, the Angels were 18-11, the Mariners were 12-16 and the Rockies were 16-11.

I don't consider the Phillies a bad team because they are 15-18 despite not having Harper basically all year and Turner in a terrible slump.  Of course you could definitely make an argument that last year's Phillies were a slightly above average team that snuck into the playoffs with a newly created playoff spot and got hot, so maybe their reality is that we shouldn't look at them as last year's runners up and instead a team that won 87 games and is struggling to start the next season.

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, mfcubs22 said:

The Cubs are also 7th in MLB in BA with RISP. 17th in OPS/wRC+. Just some reverting back to the mean with how great they were to start the year. It’s an unfortunate stretch, but overall pretty close to where I expect them to finish the season offensively. 

Are there any teams that aren't wildly streaky and what attributes does that team have to prevent such peaks and valleys?  If they consistently hit like the 7th best team with RISP they'd be fine.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Whaddaya Seiya start hitting baseballs again?

[Andy]

Unreal fake rally, and Seiya flat out sucks right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A not so small percentage of the RISP struggles are Seiya hitting where he is in the lineup right now

[UMFan83]

Feel like Seiya should move down in the order until he’s hitting better. He’s a rally killer right now

[UMFan83]

Seiya with 8 LOB today alone

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Schumaker really gives off an incredibly whiny vibe for a manager

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Taking a moment before they fail to drive in these runs to remind myself how incredibly annoyed I would be at those plays happening consecutively if the Cubs were in the field

[UMFan83]

Do the Marlins have like 8 lefty relievers in their pen?

[UMFan83]

1 strikeout

[UMFan83]

Wow they did it. Good job little dude

[Andy]

I always liked you Nick Madrigal

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lot of trust in Amaya to let him catch the 9th just to get a slightly better shot at an insurance run

[Andy]

Gotta love baseball that that's Amaya's first hit after all his line shot outs

[CubinNY]

Marlins imploding 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

When Mervis turn out to be really good, I’m never going to let Kyle forget it. 
 I’m convinced he going to be really good. 

He's an interesting prospect. Sometimes B prospects turn out really good.

That's why I hate the concept of "ceiling."  Sammy Sosa was a toosly B prospect who never hit more than 11 home runs in a minor league season, and he became the first guy to have multiple 60 HR seasons.  Everyone's ceiling is off the charts, everyone's floor is being hit by a bus tomorrow. It's just a matter of how thin you wanna slice the probabilities.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I agree with what TT implied, that maybe people are being a bit slow to update their expectations for this team.

You don't wanna throw out pre-season projections after 35 games, but if the performances you're seeing a noticeably divergent from them, you should start shading them in that direction.  A median projection for this team should proably be closer to 78-80 wins than the 75ish it was at the beginning of the season.

[Derwood]

We're back to slightly-above-average!