Bellinger's New (Old) Swing

[Guest]

Hey everyone,

 

New guy checking in. I'm Matt Trueblood, and I'll be writing and editing a lot of the new front page content once the site gets the full re-launch that Brock is cooking up. I wanted to jump in here and say hi, and also start shooting the breeze a bit, so you can see (I hope) a truer picture of who I am and what I'll be about here than you might get on (say, for instance, one possible place) Twitter. I *think*, though I can't prove it or anything, that I'm less of a horsefeatherer than I was a few years ago, and I want to be part of growing this place without derailing it.

 

This forum reminds me a ton of a community to which my brother-in-law belongs out here in Minnesota, called WGOM, and through my little bit of time there, I understand much of what you all value and want to preserve about this place. I promise to avoid intruding on that. I just want to talk some ball. And in that spirit: What level of optimism are we allowed to harbor about Cody Bellinger?

 

I saw a post earlier from Bertz about being a sucker for anything that suggests he'll get back to his MVP form, and then That One Tweet went around yesterday, and how can you not buy in a little?

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I'm there, too. I instinctively guard my heart on these kinds of rebound stories, but man, that's a real recovery. He had knee and back trouble the last few years. That's multiple damaged links in the kinetic chain that makes up a swing as powerful and complicated as his, and it was inevitable that it would take a toll. The compromised version of him couldn't stay as upright and still generate any power, because he had to get into his legs more and use his trunk less. The problem I see is, he's so damn tall and gangly that lengthening his stride and sinking into his legs more slowed everything down and lengthened the swing.

 

The odds say that, being his size and having these issues already on your medical record, the problems are going to recur. That's the bad news. But for the Cubs, the good news is that he's on a one-year deal. If we see a healthy season of Bellinger, or even four or five healthy months, and he can sustain the swing he's gotten back to this spring... it's exciting. I think he'd probably merit a qualifying offer in the fall, in that case, and then any issues that pop back up become the problem of whichever team signs him to a long-term deal, while the Cubs slot PCA into center and don't miss a beat.

 

And in the meantime? Here's my hot take: Billy Williams's status as the only left-handed hitter in Cubs history with 40 bombs in a single season is not safe. This is why I loved the signing of Bellinger, even if it came with plenty of downside and took up a big chunk of their available payroll. I just broke down Christian Yelich for Brewer Fanatic, and concluded that I don't think a return to his former glory is especially likely. Unless and until he gets hurt, though, I feel much more optimistic about Bellinger rebounding to that level.

 

Any thoughts? And also: did I link to the tweet comparing his swings correctly? I'm still learning the logistics here. :dontknow:

[CubinNY]

I think it depends on if he is able to compensate for whatever structural damage was done to his shoulder. It is pretty clear he's not the same player he was before the injury. It's really hard for me to get excited in any way because he's had two years to heal. Miracles happen every day so you never know.

[UMFan83]

First 3 seasons: 450 games, 16.7 WAR

Next 3 seasons: 295 games, 1.2 WAR

 

I realize there are better metrics to look at that will diagnose the issues better but just throwing basic WAR out there to illustrate how big his decline in play has been. Realize there's been injuries and swing changes and other factors at play, just curious if there is a comp out there of a player with a similar career arc suddenly finding their form again.

 

I'll let our resident baseball wizard TT, who is probably the biggest asset that Brock acquired in his purchase of the site, chime in with some fancy numbers.

[stitchface]

I think this is the year Heyward rediscovers his old form.

[Guest]

First 3 seasons: 450 games, 16.7 WAR

Next 3 seasons: 295 games, 1.2 WAR

 

I realize there are better metrics to look at that will diagnose the issues better but just throwing basic WAR out there to illustrate how big his decline in play has been. Realize there's been injuries and swing changes and other factors at play, just curious if there is a comp out there of a player with a similar career arc suddenly finding their form again.

 

I'll let our resident baseball wizard TT, who is probably the biggest asset that Brock acquired in his purchase of the site, chime in with some fancy numbers.

 

I’m not sure there’s a good comp for someone having this much success this early and cratering this hard, in the first place! But yeah, to bounce back from that would be more or less unprecedented. My solace comes from the idea that we’ve seen a lot of unprecedented career paths happen these last several years, throughout the game. The combination of tech-driven training and development, better sports medicine, all of that has made things possible that weren’t possible for much of baseball history—or at least, that were much harder.

 

And then again, maybe his career doesn’t just snap back to Hall of Fame track stuff, but he can get one great year of full force in. KB hasn’t *really* been the same since his injuries in 2018, right? But he had that excellent 2019, even so.

[fromthestretch]

Realize there's been injuries and swing changes and other factors at play, just curious if there is a comp out there of a player with a similar career arc suddenly finding their form again.

 

Eric Davis was mediocre to awful during the 1991 through 1993 seasons (his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons). He still had injury issues after that but managed to get his hitting back up to pretty damn good levels. There may be others, but that's one that popped into my head.

[stitchface]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

[fromthestretch]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

 

Beltre never really bottomed out though, outside of 2009. His overall numbers in Seattle weren't to the same level as his MVP season with the Dodgers, but his oWAR was still solid despite playing in a horrible hitting environment.

[Guest]

I think this is the year Heyward rediscovers his old form.

 

Well he has a brand new swing you see

[Bertz]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

 

I'll add

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowelmi01.shtml

 

I think with Bellinger the primary reason for optimism is that the decline is 100% attributable to the injury. Like it's a direct line. He hurt his shoulder, and since then there's been less thunder in the bat, evidenced a few ways but IMO most conclusively via his drop in top end exit velocity. He didn't start hitting a bunch of pop-ups or grounders, which would be a sign of Heyward-esque mechanical problems. His plate discipline didn't suddenly go to hell either (he's chasing more, but it looks like that's tied to him getting pitched around less). It's the injury. Full stop.

 

Like I'm usually the annoying guy who can't go three sentences in April without saying "Small Sample Size." But like if Bellinger's got .900-something OPS two weeks into the season and a couple balls north of 110 MPH I'll already be fully bought in.

[sneakypower]

the COVID year showed he still has it in him, if he bounces back it probably looks a fair bit like this (4+ WAR), which would be great albeit as trade bait on the level of what Kris Bryant was

 

[attachment=0]bellinger-2020.JPG[/attachment]

[chopsx9]

First 3 seasons: 450 games, 16.7 WAR

Next 3 seasons: 295 games, 1.2 WAR

 

I realize there are better metrics to look at that will diagnose the issues better but just throwing basic WAR out there to illustrate how big his decline in play has been. Realize there's been injuries and swing changes and other factors at play, just curious if there is a comp out there of a player with a similar career arc suddenly finding their form again.

 

I'll let our resident baseball wizard TT, who is probably the biggest asset that Brock acquired in his purchase of the site, chime in with some fancy numbers.

 

I’m not sure there’s a good comp for someone having this much success this early and cratering this hard, in the first place! But yeah, to bounce back from that would be more or less unprecedented. My solace comes from the idea that we’ve seen a lot of unprecedented career paths happen these last several years, throughout the game. The combination of tech-driven training and development, better sports medicine, all of that has made things possible that weren’t possible for much of baseball history—or at least, that were much harder.

 

And then again, maybe his career doesn’t just snap back to Hall of Fame track stuff, but he can get one great year of full force in. KB hasn’t *really* been the same since his injuries in 2018, right? But he had that excellent 2019, even so.

Dave Parker started a 4 or year so slide at 28/29 (injury related as well if I remember) and had a really nice rebound at 34 and was decent enough for a few years more.

[Guest]

First 3 seasons: 450 games, 16.7 WAR

Next 3 seasons: 295 games, 1.2 WAR

 

I realize there are better metrics to look at that will diagnose the issues better but just throwing basic WAR out there to illustrate how big his decline in play has been. Realize there's been injuries and swing changes and other factors at play, just curious if there is a comp out there of a player with a similar career arc suddenly finding their form again.

 

I'll let our resident baseball wizard TT, who is probably the biggest asset that Brock acquired in his purchase of the site, chime in with some fancy numbers.

 

I’m not sure there’s a good comp for someone having this much success this early and cratering this hard, in the first place! But yeah, to bounce back from that would be more or less unprecedented. My solace comes from the idea that we’ve seen a lot of unprecedented career paths happen these last several years, throughout the game. The combination of tech-driven training and development, better sports medicine, all of that has made things possible that weren’t possible for much of baseball history—or at least, that were much harder.

 

And then again, maybe his career doesn’t just snap back to Hall of Fame track stuff, but he can get one great year of full force in. KB hasn’t *really* been the same since his injuries in 2018, right? But he had that excellent 2019, even so.

Dave Parker started a 4 or year so slide at 28/29 (injury related as well if I remember) and had a really nice rebound at 34 and was decent enough for a few years more.

 

Yeah, I mentioned him in my piece about Yelich at the Brewers site this week! Also Roger Maris. But it says a lot that we’re going so far back to find these. Haha. Plus it’s just so weird to go so off the rails so *young*. Bellinger is still not even as old as Parker was when he began to scuffle.

 

I can’t help think the weirdness of the COVID season contributed. Not COVID itself but the bizarreness of that whole thing. And then the lockout last winter. But it’s not like the ‘94 strike created a bunch of similar disruptions, so who knows?

[WrigleyField 22]

Any thoughts? And also: did I link to the tweet comparing his swings correctly? I'm still learning the logistics here. :dontknow:

Hotly debated and you're gonna piss off someone either way.

 

Welcome.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just broke down Christian Yelich for Brewer Fanatic, and concluded that I don't think a return to his former glory is especially likely. Unless and until he gets hurt, though, I feel much more optimistic about Bellinger rebounding to that level.

I definitely agree with this. Whatever happened to Yelich - I think it's a combo back/knee thing that he just can't work around - I don't see him returning to MVP levels (or, unfortunately, anywhere near that level). He can still be a productive player for awhile and might even eek out a four win season if the new defensive metrics continue to love him and he gets a lucky BABIP season or something along those lines. Given his exit velo, I could see that happening.

 

But Bellinger... I think he has a good chance of a comeback. It might have taken just getting out of LA for whatever reason. The Dodgers are a fantastic org but sometimes, guys just can't get through a mental issue while working in a single organization. Maybe fresh faces around him open him up to different ideas and he comes back to form. I think it's a decent chance that happens and he resurrects his career.

[David]

Yelich was stealing signs

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yelich was stealing signs

That doesn't really explain why he was amazing, exploded his kneecap, then immediately stopped being amazing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't share outright Bellinger performance optimism, but still can get behind the signing. He was the second best option they had in CF this offseason and the only serious one available in FA. The move checked a ton of boxes for the franchise: CF and 1B defense, flyball hitter, LHH, necessarily ate some cap space, marketable player to the custies waiting patiently for Rebuild 2.0 to proceed to the #1 Ranked (please allow this moving forward) farm stage as per the unwritten rules, and both gave and gives the roster interesting flexibility as it evolves over the season

 

I'm not completely pessimistic about performance since Bellinger's got such a wide array of appealing and competitive skills, but assume shoulder injuries in general take away the power game. That he's been able to post above league average avg EVs the past couple years with the same flyball approach and play a good CF speaks to how athletic and skilled he is, but I'd be ecstatic with 2 WAR (wouldn't QO him) and expect most he's keeping CF warm for Brennen Davis pretty early into the season

This is a pretty good take, IMO. The upside is that Bellinger becomes a beast and you get the QO. The downside is that you paid a guy a bunch of money to be a very good defensive centerfielder, which the Cubs badly needed and can absolutely afford to do.

 

It's exactly the kind of high upside, low downside play the Cubs should be dealing in right now.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Yelich was stealing signs

That doesn't really explain why he was amazing, exploded his kneecap, then immediately stopped being amazing.

I know a guy who missed a sign and crashed his car and has never walked again so…

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yelich was stealing signs

That doesn't really explain why he was amazing, exploded his kneecap, then immediately stopped being amazing.

 

the signstealinggate Houston happened in between as well - meaning yelich probably realized the gig was up

[David]

Yelich was stealing signs

That doesn't really explain why he was amazing, exploded his kneecap, then immediately stopped being amazing.

 

the signstealinggate Houston happened in between as well - meaning yelich probably realized the gig was up

 

he was projecting when he replied to darvish on twitter

[Bertz]

I would love for Yelich to be a dirty rotten cheater, but it's just a combo of his kneecap exploding and his raw power being in the good-not-great sweetspot where he disproportionately benefited from the juiced ball.

[CubinNY]

Even though this thread is supposed to be about Bellinger, I want to congratulate our new overlords on engaging in the time honored NSBB tradition of derailing a thread. You are us, we are you.

 

Also, Yelich had 19 steals last year so the knee injury hasn't really slowed his running down. It may have affected his sign-stealing though 8-)

[David]

Also I love how Deshaies does his whole innuendo spiel on the broadcast every time Yelich's struggles come up.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sign stealing is like card counting; only nerds who can't do it gripe about it.