2022-23 Offseason Thread (non-Cubs)

[Gilby]

Dang, for me the scenarios that did not include the Cubs signing one of the top 3 SS and me still being happy with the off-season, all included signing Abreu. Now... I'm gonna need Correa, Turner, or Xander. Edited November 28, 2022 by Gilby

[Backtobanks]

Sums it up for me

 

 

I totally agree with this. It's time to be proactive and use the assets (money and prospects) to actually build a contending team now. Waiting for years for prospects to reach their potentials is getting old when they suffer injuries and never really perform as we have hoped.

[Bertz]

Dang, for me the scenarios that did not include the Cubs signing one of the top 3 SS and me still being happy with the off-season, all included signing Abreu. Now... I'm gonna need Correa, Turner, or Xander.

 

Yeah this is 100% where I'm at. Josh Bell would still work for me, but there's a pretty steep dropoff after those two.

[Bertz]

[Andy]

Abreu posted a career-low SLG last year and is turning 36, I'm extremely fine not signing him

[mul21]

I may be in the minority but I hated the Abreu idea. Too much money on a position that can be "fixed" much more cheaply when there are so many other obvious needs on the team and there's clearly a hard cap on what will be spent.

[17 Seconds]

on one hand, i'm fine with not giving him that much. on the other, this feels like the first whiff. i'm sick of whiffs.

[Bertz]

on one hand, i'm fine with not giving him that much. on the other, this feels like the first whiff. i'm sick of whiffs.

 

Yeah it's tough, there's a very good chance it's a whiff but we won't know until a good bit more offseason has played out. There are very good reasons to pass on him.

 

Maybe the team is confident it will sign a shortstop?

 

Maybe they're about to come down with Josh Bell?

 

Maybe they're going BIG at SP?

 

But if none of those is happening and the reason for whiffing on Abreu is because "we have Jose Abreu at home" and it's just a Matt Carpenter/Patrick Wisdom platoon or a lesser old slugger like JD Davis or Justin Turner we should be pissed.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you give Abreu 20 million AAV and pay a SS, you're gonna have to shop at the bottom of the barrel for most of your other needs in order to stay under the LT. Especially given what these early deals imply about what FA's are going to cost. Abreu would've been very useful but ultimately it's going to be easier to find a professional hitter with fewer marginal dollars than it will be to find a starting CF, C, or SP.

[CubinNY]

I don’t mind not signing Abreu. I think Mervis is the real thing, but I’m really hoping they target a legitimate #1 starter and another good starter. I don’t really know what to think about CF. A lot of money and not a lot of production out there. Obviously Turner or Correra would be great too. Turner first for me.

[CubinNY]

Looks like Turner to the Phils is heating up.

[Bertz]

A couple good like state of the market articles this AM

 

 

 

The Passan one is especially good. He expects the dam to break and stuff to really start happening this weekend as teams arrive in town for the Winter Meetings

[CubinNY]

Thanks, good stuff…This part jumped out at me for non-baseball reasons:

 

"Dave Dombrowski isn't going to sit on his hands," said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. "His owner seems to be on the same page.

 

Just got past a line the other day from Dracula in which the count refers to Harker’s employer as Harker’s master…Love it love it love it, please add gun slingin’ robot police to the mix

weird horsefeathering horsefeathers.

[Bertz]

 

Holy Horsefeathers

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm gonna have to come back to the Madrigal for Kaprielian deal I floated earlier in the offseason. I don't love him as a player, but there's enough to like that if any FA SP worth considering is getting 12-15M+, getting him for a surplus infielder to be the secondary SP addition makes the offseason a lot easier.

[Tim]

 

Holy Horsefeathers

Holy horsefeathers...maybe we could get Varsho or someone else good to play CF in return for Thompson if the premium for pitchers is that high.

[Tim]

I'm gonna have to come back to the Madrigal for Kaprielian deal I floated earlier in the offseason. I don't love him as a player, but there's enough to like that if any FA SP worth considering is getting 12-15M+, getting him for a surplus infielder to be the secondary SP addition makes the offseason a lot easier.

I also love the Madrigral for Kelenic proposal I've seen on Twitter recently.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

^^ Mariners are looking for a LHH 2B according to MLBTR. Cubs twitter can be a bit of an echo chamber and doesn’t like to pay for anyone interesting, a pre-arb former top 5 overall prospect for Madrigal seems extremely unrealistic

 

Most people I've seen agree that deal would be a slight stretch, but Kelenic has 550 PA of sub-replacement play since that prospect ranking, and Madrigal is a pre-arb former top 50 prospect(as high as 12 by BP) himself that has at least shown some ability to hit MLB pitching. I think the value is in the ballpark even if it's most likely Madrigal plus something.

 

The biggest problem, that you did point out, is finding a team where Madrigal fills a need. That's why I came back to the A's, because they're one of the few teams with a bad middle infield situation at both the MLB and high minors that would be more willing to overlook Madrigal's lack of positional flexibility.

[Bertz]

This is probably just a weird one-off where a team thinks they're smarter than the market. Like two years ago the Braves giving Drew Smyly too much money because his velocity was briefly juiced initially coming back off of TJ surgery.

 

If it's not though, just let the kids handle the other SP spot. If the Matt Boyd/Chris Archer/Michael Lorenzen tier of pitchers require 8 figure contracts, I'd rather just roll with the in house options. Wesneski is better than this tier anyway. I understand wanting to bolster depth, but if our options for spending $8-10M are a guy who's maybe a quarter of a run of ERA better than Sampson or Assad, or upgrading from Dansby Swanson to Trea Turner, how is that even a debate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is probably just a weird one-off where a team thinks they're smarter than the market. Like two years ago the Braves giving Drew Smyly too much money because his velocity was briefly juiced initially coming back off of TJ surgery.

 

For me it's more the continued accumulation of signed deals. Like maybe there's an early-offseason premium being paid to get guys to put pen to paper, but Clevinger, Boyd, Martin Perez getting a QO, even Nick Martinez are not leaving much room to think the floor is all that low for players who have any room for optimism in their performance.

[Backtobanks]

 

Holy Horsefeathers

Holy horsefeathers...maybe we could get Varsho or someone else good to play CF in return for Thompson if the premium for pitchers is that high.

 

It would take Thompson plus 3-4 more prospects yo get Varsho.

[Backtobanks]

Holy horsefeathers...maybe we could get Varsho or someone else good to play CF in return for Thompson if the premium for pitchers is that high.

 

It would take Thompson plus 3-4 more prospects yo get Varsho.

 

 

According to MLB trade values, Varsho is 74.5 and Thompson is at 8,3.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-open-to-exceeding-luxury-tax-threshold.html

 

A team’s competitive balance tax number is calculated by adding the average annual values of a club’s commitments, in addition to player benefits. For CBT purposes, there’s no difference between backloaded, frontloaded or evenly-distributed contracts. That reduces (but doesn’t entirely eliminate) teams’ ability to creatively structure deals around the tax. Yet for most teams it puts the club’s luxury tax number above their actual payroll for the upcoming season. That’s particularly true of the Braves, who have signed a number of players to early-career extensions with salaries that escalate later in the deal. For example, the Spencer Strider deal contains a $12.5MM tax hit, but he’ll actually make just $1MM next season.

 

Roster Resource projects Atlanta’s actual 2023 spending just under $196MM at the moment. Toscano writes the organization is placing a greater emphasis on that figure than on their current CBT number. While it seems there’s still some room to maneuver from that perspective, the Braves are already projected well above their previous franchise record.

 

So the ultra conservative Braves might go over in a very technical way, the Rays are kicking the tires on multiple QO’d players, but it’s inconceivable the Cubs might do more than sign a SS and fill out with fringe players

 

The Cubs are linked to several QO'd players too(plus the Rays interest in DeGrom was so strong they signed Eflin 24 hours later), and yes they're very unlikely to go over the CBT threshold this year

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs are linked to several QO'd players too(plus the Rays interest in DeGrom was so strong they signed Eflin 24 hours later), and yes they're very unlikely to go over the CBT threshold this year

 

Just ftr: not necessary for a competitive 2023 given the nearer to $100 million than not they'd have to spend to even push up against. All the more excuse to go get more than just a SS

 

Correct, you're the one creating an odd strawman of the Cubs being terrified of using resources while being linked to nearly half the QO FA(all 3 SS + Bassitt) as well as names requiring 8 figures like Senga, Bellinger, Abreu before he signed, etc.

[Bertz]