Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-1-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

 

Iowa at Columbus, 5:15 pm

Tennessee at Mississippi, 6:35 pm

South Bend vs Lansing, 6:05 pm

Myrtle Beach at Charleston, 6:05 pm

 

 

Probable Starters:

 

Tennessee: RHP Ryan Jensen

South Bend: RHP Luis Devers

Myrtle Beach: RHP Grant Kipp

[Bertz]

[JeffH]

Please be age 24-33 Jim Thome.

 

Satan, you may have my soul if you make this so.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Where do you guys rank Devers in our system? Is he Pitcher of the Year? The numbers are ridiculous.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Where do you guys rank Devers in our system? Is he Pitcher of the Year? The numbers are ridiculous.

 

I don't see as a sure top 30...Doesn't throw hard, not much of a breaking ball...Similar to Herz in that the changeup is by far his best pitch and it's devastated low minors hitters, but otherwise is a prime candidate to be exposed in the upper minors pretty quickly...I'd be more optimistic about this season if it was High A/AA at 22 rather than Low A/High A...Also the arm action screams TJ if/when the velocity does bump up a little

 

Assad's got to be the PoTY favorite

 

Devers isn’t just succeeding because of one pitch. If Herz had Devers’ command, he’d be in the bigs now.

 

And Devers has definitely out-pitched Assad this year and should definitely win pitcher of the year in the system.

[craig]

... the arm action screams TJ if/when the velocity does bump up a little..

 

Tom, I'm not really an arm-health-risk specialist, so this is totally a sincere question.

1. What is it about Devers' arm action that you think is problematic and would be unable to sustain an extra velocity step? Just too much throwing with arm not the body? Too much arm whip with insufficient legs and core? Too much turning of the back, so that there is too much lateral twist? Or The follow through? What do you think is risky?

 

2. To my super ignorant amateur eye, I rarely can anticipate what mechanics do or don't lead to issues. But his seem very consistent with a very simple uncomplicated delivery. I watched some 2021 instrux video; It does seem he's further simplified this year from the already simple 2021 delivery. The load/windup is even shorter/smaller than it was then.

 

3. I wonder what developmental priorities he'll have over the winter. Get a little stronger and faster to beef up velocity? Focus on breaking ball? Tweak the delivery to reduce TJ-risk?

 

4. I wonder how much pitch-lab thinks about or understands TJ-risk? Understanding how to prevent TJ would be valuable, but probably two-sides to that. Hard enough to have big-league stuff; if risk-reduction reduces the stuff, perhaps that's counterproductive, and guys are better off to pitch with the risk?

 

5. I wonder what the pitch-lab analytics guys think about his fastball, or what their analytics indicate about it's effectiveness? Does his back-turned quick-pitch delivery make it effectively faster? Does he get as much swing-and-miss and weak-contact on his fastball as bigger prospects with 3-5 more mph? Or does his low velocity represent a fastball that really isn't all that effective?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've been trying to temper my expectations for Mervis for months now and we've reached the point where it's just going to be mean if he doesn't become a useful big leaguer.

[Bertz]

I feel like every time I see Cam Sanders in box scores now I go "wow he's really taken to short relief" but then check Fangraphs and

 

[craig]

I’m just talking out of my butt and its way down my list of knocks but Devers’ arm action is not hip…long in the back and I guess it looks like the elbow gets above the shoulder:

 

 

Thanks for observations,Tom! Helpful.