Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-11-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

 

Iowa vs Louisville, 12:08 pm

Tennessee vs Mississippi, 6:15 pm

South Bend at Wisconsin, 6:40 pm

Myrtle Beach vs Columbia, 6:05 pm

ACL Cubs at ACL Brewers Blue, 8:00 pm

DSL Cubs Blue vs DSL Mets 1 (game suspended 7/18), 10:00 am

DSL Cubs Blue vs DSL Mets 1, TBD

DSL Cubs Red at DSL Mets 2, 10:00 am

 

Probable Starters:

 

Iowa: RHP Caleb Kilian

Tennessee: RHP Riley Thompson

South Bend: RHP Luis Devers

Myrtle Beach: LHP Didier Vargas

[Bertz]

 

Would love to have him start one of the Wash games next week, it's basically a AAA lineup anyway so should be a soft landing back into MLB

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Would love to have him start one of the Wash games next week, it's basically a AAA lineup anyway so should be a soft landing back into MLB

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It’s competing with the Field of Dreams game now but:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tom he's at low A with a .710 OPS and striking out 33% of the time, the bar is low for catchers but the Hearn thing is 'touch grass' moment if you're considering him a real prospect without significant sustained changes.

[JeffH]

To be fair to Tom, catchers take longer and Hearn has pedigree. Top 10 is a bit of hyperbole, but he's a prospect.

[Tim]

Hearn has done what he needed to do this year - cut the strikeout rate from 44% to 33%. While he's repeating the level, he's still plenty young. As a catcher, he's got both some pop in the bat and also some wheels on the bases.

 

All that said...I wouldn't have him in my top 30 at this point. But I will be watching pretty closely to see how he closes out the year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just exciting stuff that Hearn finally broke a .200 batting average after 235 ABs this year.

 

Oh what’s that? He’s repeating low-A ball? And has a .191 batting average over 428 at bats in two years? Well, maybe 2023 is the year he gets his professional batting average over .200, including rookie ball.

 

I know, batting average is for the birds.

[mul21]

I'm not sure if the obsession with this dude or Gallo is weirder. Make it stop.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just exciting stuff that Hearn finally broke a .200 batting average after 235 ABs this year.

 

Oh what’s that? He’s repeating low-A ball? And has a .191 batting average over 428 at bats in two years? Well, maybe 2023 is the year he gets his professional batting average over .200, including rookie ball.

 

I know, batting average is for the birds.

 

Call me crazy here, I might be really stretching it in 2022 by saying this, but batting average is probably not the ideal way to evaluate a catching prospect in A ball or even the low minors. It seems nuts to say, but I'm willing to to go out on the limb. I couldn't even say what the standard is anyway.

 

What do you think it says about a player's hit tool if they're struggling to break .200 with a K rate north of 30% in multiple 200+ PA samples? What do you think that says about their ability to scale 3 higher levels beyond the current one without dramatic changes?

 

Like I get it we all have our favorites that we want to cheer on that aren't necessarily consensus standouts, but we can also be clear eyed about their actual standing as a potential major leaguer.

[CubinNY]

What do you think it says about a player's hit tool if they're struggling to break .200 with a K rate north of 30% in multiple 200+ PA samples? What do you think that says about their ability to scale 3 higher levels beyond the current one without dramatic changes?

 

Like I get it we all have our favorites that we want to cheer on that aren't necessarily consensus standouts, but we can also be clear eyed about their actual standin as a potential major leaguer.

 

We’re not talking all players in general, we’re talking about a very specific player doing very specific things even outside of the one-two you’re zeroed in on. The better question is does a 21 YO LHH C who plays defense, hits flyballs, takes walks, runs the bases, and show in game power have a continued Future in the pros? The answer is resoundingly yes, and if the bat speed and strength is there possibly a very bright future

 

I don’t play favorites, not sure how this is any or way different than like buying Kevin Alcantara or Kevin Made have true starter potential yet outside of Hearn not being in the cool club or whatever the process is

None of it matters if he can't make contact. But I have no problem geeking over guys. You seem to be especially focused on this dude. You like obscure things to fuss over. You be you.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We’re not talking all players in general, we’re talking about a very specific player doing very specific things even outside of the one-two you’re zeroed in on. The better question is does a 21 YO LHH C who plays defense, hits flyballs, takes walks, runs the bases, and show in game power have a continued Future in the pros? The answer is resoundingly yes, and if the bat speed and strength is there possibly a very bright future

 

I don’t play favorites, not sure how this is any or way different than like buying Kevin Alcantara or Kevin Made have true starter potential yet outside of Hearn not being in the cool club or whatever the process is

 

It's because those good things start to go away at higher levels because of how bad the hit tool is. Right now the BB, K, and AVG paint the picture of a guy who really struggles to make consistent contact in the zone. What happens when he goes up a level and faces better stuff that has better command/control? The walk rate erodes and IsoP probably does too, and you're getting unplayable production from even a catcher. Now what happens when you go up a level again? And again? Obviously at 21 no one is assuming there can't be improvements made on his end, the point is that there needs to be big ones for him to even have a squint to see MLB future. Which is why people are gobsmacked at statements like Hearn being 'closer to the Top 10 than not'.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's because those good things start to go away at higher levels because of how bad the hit tool is. Right now the BB, K, and AVG paint the picture of a guy who really struggles to make consistent contact in the zone. What happens when he goes up a level and faces better stuff that has better

command/control? The walk rate erodes and IsoP probably does too, and you're getting unplayable production from even a catcher. Now what happens when you go up a level again? And again? Obviously at 21 no one is assuming there can't be improvements made on his end, the point is that there needs to be big ones for him to even have a squint to see MLB future. Which is why people are gobsmacked at statements like Hearn being 'closer to the Top 10 than not'.

 

That’s all well and good but why should the assumption be that a former top ranked amateur who just lopped 11% off his K rate and added 40 to his wRC+ (a 21 YO Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ at the level, Hearn’s at

102) just be done making gains? Because Ks and batting average? He was showing the same flyball hitting, high Iso game even before this breakout,

so why should the assumption be that they’ll go away? They might but what might happen seems

less important than what is happening

 

Consensus top 10 prospects in the low minors for Cubs with above league average K rates: Alcantara (27% Ks, above the league), Crow-Armstrong (28% at SB with a 7/50 BB:K), Hernandez (29%)….It seems very arbitrary to see all the upside there and not get why it’s probably going to be OK to look beyond K rate on a catcher (a LHH catcher at that) delivering an all around season with meaty gains (including, coincidentally, K rate and BA)

 

Hitting is a weak-link skill, yours gets exploited until you fix it or fail out. Lopsided profiles exist, but they still require a minimum threshold of competence for the profile to not collapse, and lopsided profiles generally have higher highs than Hearn's. But don't take my word for it, I didn't check every name but I don't see a single big leaguer of substance with that combination of K and AVG in Low-A going back 15 years: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=0&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=20,1&pageitems=10000000000000&pg=0

 

The only ones I can see that even got a cup of coffee(e.g. Will Benson) got a mulligan on A ball and showed much much better hitting ability in that 2nd chance.