Winning in 2023

[squally1313]

But I think if this wasn't Willson Contreras, Cub Legend, we were talking about, this would be a different conversation.

 

Other than 30+ and glancing at 115, what’s not to like about Contreras’ bat moving forward? He’s got a better than league average CSW% and K rate this year (big jumps are good!), hits the ball hard (116 max EV is a career high), takes walks, hits HRs…The only hole in his offensive game is a 50% GB, and it's entirely possible that's an area the Cubs can improve overall (since they're among the few worst) without losing an overall impact bat

 

There's a bit of bird in the hand thinking but also a DH capable catcher or catcher capable DH is a very Future player too (he's also taken innings at 1B, both COFs, and even an inning 3B in 2021). All the good teams are 2+ deep (Zunino/Mejia, Smith/Barnes, Realmuto/Stubbs, Kirk/Jansen/soonMoreno, Trevino/Higashioka, Grandal/Zavala/Mcguire, so on) at catcher now, Contreras can hit with any of those guys (plus gives them the flexibility to sign and roster someone like Hedges to play defense), aaaaand we all seem to agree he's going to be cheap. Even if it's just him signing the QO

 

----

 

BTW Ian Happ with a 29% K rate in the second half entering tonight (152 PAs)...has a K in 3 PAs tonight...Are the Cubs trading him in the offseason?

 

I mean, sign me up for the QO.

 

I sorted the FG leaderboard by offensive value, just to see what someone with his bat but negative defensive value gives you, and the first name that popped up was Rhys Hoskins, career 126 wRC+ hitter, noted defensive liability. 126 wRC+ would be an exceedingly generous projection for Contreras' bat going forward. Rhys Hoskins, who generally gets significantly more PAs than Contreras has or will, has never put up more than a 2.5 fWAR. And yeah, maybe Contreras as a mostly DH/sometimes catcher in a couple years doesn't end up with the real bad defensive ratings, but split the difference between that and an actually realistic offensive projection and you're left with similar overall production. And...two 2 WAR guys are good! We need more of them! Is something like that worth $80m for four years? I'd hope we could find that more efficiently (eyeing The Deepest Farm System We've Ever Had). And again, this is all ignoring the less quantifiable parts of this, both good (he is the man and would most likely provide intangible value somehow) and bad (see: Jason Heyward 2019-2022).

[squally1313]

BTW Ian Happ with a 29% K rate in the second half entering tonight (152 PAs)...has a K in 3 PAs tonight...Are the Cubs trading him in the offseason?

Sorry, forgot this weird tangent. Um, maybe? He's going to make like $9m next year with no long term commitment, so I'm not sure this is an apples to apples thing? But...if the deal is right? I liked him a lot better when he could at least fake centerfield (and obviously when he was Sorianoing on offense). But I don't think he'd get you a whole lot on the market so...take the cheapish maybe production until Davis gets here and then figure out a way to utilize his hot streaks somehow.

[squally1313]

I sorted the FG leaderboard by offensive value, just to see what someone with his bat but negative defensive value gives you, and the first name that popped up was Rhys Hoskins, career 126 wRC+ hitter, noted defensive liability. 126 wRC+ would be an exceedingly generous projection for Contreras' bat going forward. Rhys Hoskins, who generally gets significantly more PAs than Contreras has or will, has never put up more than a 2.5 fWAR. And yeah, maybe Contreras as a mostly DH/sometimes catcher in a couple years doesn't end up with the real bad defensive ratings, but split the difference between that and an actually realistic offensive projection and you're left with similar overall production. And...two 2 WAR guys are good! We need more of them! Is something like that worth $80m for four years? I'd hope we could find that more efficiently (eyeing The Deepest Farm System We've Ever Had). And again, this is all ignoring the less quantifiable parts of this, both good (he is the man and would most likely provide intangible value somehow) and bad (see: Jason Heyward 2019-2022).

 

No, it wouldn't. He has a .359 wOBA and .362 xwOBA, a .246 BA and a .253 xBA, a .471 SLG and a .460 xSLG(so still a .200+ IsoSLG)...while running a 131 wRC+. He's at 3.2 fWAR right now!

 

His defense is also being mischaracterized or at least lacks nuance. He's got plenty of arm for the position, only ever really hurt the Cubs in 2018 while catching 1100+ innings (never close to that before or after, includes that month stretch with no dayoff and injured backups)...and again this in a MLB where any team competing is multiple impact players deep at the position...he's caught 591.1 inninigs coming into tonight for 2022

 

What even are they *supposed* to get for 4/80? A full time plus defensive catcher who projects to 126 wRC+? 3 WAR a season? 4? Would it be inefficient for the Deepest Farm System to fill in a team around Contreras? If it's deep how or why would or could One Man stopping it from happening?

 

I could have made the Happ thing a separate post or not at all

 

You know it's a career year, I know it's a career year, everyone else here knows it's a career year. I'm not saying it's not legit, the peripherals back it up. But it's absolutely above anything he's done before and it's pretty foolish to disregard the rest of his career (or even just 2020 and 2021, where he put up matching 110 wRCs after a 126 wRC in 2019) in any of these exercises, especially when we're debating the merits of a long term deal for a 30 year old.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know all the nuances of defensive metrics, but he rates out as below average at best for catchers, and him moving to DH more doesn't help that. Fill the catching position cheaply, and without any long term commitments. If Amaya or your boy Hearn or whatever becomes a stud, great! If not, keep filling it cheaply. Giving a long term deal to someone who will most likely age into a DH role, and also in his best offensive performance of his career is the 34th best hitter in baseball by wRC doesn't seem like the best way to spend somewhere shy of $100m given the multiple black holes in the rotation, at the corner infield spots, etc. Or, looking at it differently, it's somewhere like 1/3rd to 1/2 of pick your absolute favorite player available in FA or stuck in Anaheim, all of which are players I'd much rather use that farm system to build around.

[squally1313]

You know it's a career year, I know it's a career year, everyone else here knows it's a career year. I'm not saying it's not legit, the peripherals back it up. But it's absolutely above anything he's done before and it's pretty foolish to disregard the rest of his career (or even just 2020 and 2021, where he put up matching 110 wRCs after a 126 wRC in 2019) in any of these exercises, especially when we're debating the merits of a long term deal for a 30 year old.

 

Since we both agree the periphs back it up, what does it matter if it's a career year? Why/How is it bad to be a career 115 wRC+ hitter in nearly 3000 ML careers PAs (mostly at a position running a 88 wRC+ since he joined the league) before having what, again we both agree the periphs match up, a legitimate leap in performance coinciding with a dramatic change in usage and roster construction (more in line with a typical 2022 contender)?

 

It feels worth pointing out this 131 wRC+ is not so far from the 27 point difference between his 115 and the position's 88 wRC+ since 2016. It's seems like not a total coincidence given the circumstance

 

Stuff like career year and long term are noise. No one's having much trouble moving the back end of even a 115 wRC+ DH contract and if this whole deep farm thing is real that's not even a thing

 

I'm not going to pretend to know all the nuances of defensive metrics, but he rates out as below average at best for catchers and him moving to DH more doesn't help that. Fill the catching position cheaply, and without any long term commitments. If Amaya or your boy Hearn or whatever becomes a stud, great! If not, keep filling it cheaply. Giving a long term deal to someone who will most likely age into a DH role, and also in his best offensive performance of his career is the 34th best hitter in baseball by wRC doesn't seem like the best way to spend somewhere shy of $100m given the multiple black holes in the rotation, at the corner infield spots, etc. Or, looking at it differently, it's somewhere like 1/3rd to 1/2 of pick your absolute favorite player available in FA or stuck in Anaheim, all of which are players I'd much rather use that farm system to build around.

 

- FanGraphs' DEF has him at +13.9, DRS at +11 (including +8 in 2021 and a whopping -1 in 2022), he's +20 career in their SB metric, and combined is all of -9 in framing runs the past two seasons (-41 in his career)

 

- Which position cheaply? Cubs DHs have a 110 wRC+ and that's with Contreras. Catcher? They've used 3 this year with Contreras on the roster and signed Gomes on a cheap, short deal. It's not unlikely they bring in someone cheap and low commit like Hedges or Barnhart in the offseason either

 

- The DH is a full time position. Why is this is a bad thing for Cubs and Contreras?

 

- Why is the 34th best hitter in baseball by wRC+ bad? These are not real things to worry about

 

- It's not a lump sump contract. They can sign other stars and have plenty of room to do so!

 

- The closest to a specific player mentioned here is Ohtani which...why would Willson Contreras be the reason they're *out* on Ohtani and not in? These elite players we all want on Cubs don't want to come to these lame, nobody filled rebuilds from a franchise who seemingly regularly tosses elite players aside because 30

 

- I don't have any idea what point you're trying to make on the wRC difference thing. His offensive production is very good for a catcher. He's going to catch less and less each year, and will spend more time at positions that produce better offense.

 

-Anytime, ever, you want to at least acknowledge that players regress as they get older, even setting aside that's been a horsefeathering catcher for the last 15 years so throw some sort of multiplier on the number of innings he's accumulated, would be great. Taking a 30 year old, career 117 wRC hitter and just penciling in 115 wRC for the next 4 years is not how those things are done.

 

-I've yet to find a way to sort catcher defense on FG that doesn't put him near the bottom of the list of catchers in terms of defensive value added. A mediocre, even 'bad' defensive catcher is still more valuable than say, an average defensive first baseman. But, again, he will give you less and less of that going forward.

 

-Fill catcher cheaply, leave yourself some flexibility to see who becomes available, who develops, etc. I think there are better ways to spend your money.

 

-Because you think he's the 34th best hitter in baseball going forward, and I don't. He's been the 51st best hitter in baseball the last three years, and he's 30.

 

-We have no idea how much room they have. But we have a pretty good idea it's limited. Go find better players. Go trade for a young pitcher and sign him to an extension with Contreras money and pitch Ohtani on that. Or pick a shortstop. Or do like 7 other things instead.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

-Fill catcher cheaply, leave yourself some flexibility to see who becomes available, who develops, etc. I think there are better ways to spend your money.

 

-We have no idea how much room they have. But we have a pretty good idea it's limited. Go find better players. Go trade for a young pitcher and sign him to an extension with Contreras money and pitch Ohtani on that. Or pick a shortstop. Or do like 7 other things instead.

 

Piggybacking on this because I came to the thread to make this point unrelated to Contreras. I think it's likely that they'll be able to do some pretty significant spending, but they aren't going to be doing three different 5+ year contracts, and I think they'll stop a decent way short of the Luxury Tax. ~15 million under *feels* right for the team's current stage for reasons I can't completely articulate, though I think you can make arguments otherwise and ultimately it's a guess of what self-imposed limits they'll put on themselves.

 

So if that's the limit, the only way to fill all the holes you want is to find a low cost option(5 mil or preferably less) for at least one of them, or dial back the pursuit of a star and their huge contract(one of the SS, Ohtani, Devers, Machado/Tatis, etc). I don't think anyone is convinced the latter is the best way to go, so you have to find that bargain to make the short sheet cover as much as possible. Catcher would be a great spot for that bargain, because there aren't a laundry list of guys to spend big money on to begin with, and between the nature of the position and the presence of Gomes you don't have to find a 150 game stud to make progress towards a competitive team.

 

Combining this thought with the Happ conversation, I struggle with finding a good home for him since a one year deal for an LF is only interesting to so many teams, but the Jays were interested in him at the deadline, and Danny Jansen may be surplus to requirements with Kirk's emergence and Moreno being ready next year. If you were able to do something resembling Happ for Jansen, then you have a bunch of potential in-house options for LF(Velazquez, Ortega, Davis, Canario, maybe Morel if you add the right CF and IF), and Jansen will make 5ish million in arbitration which means you could still add a cohort in Free Agency like Correa, Bellinger, Smyly, and a fairly high dollar SP(up to 20M) and still have room to refresh the bullpen.

[muntjack]

So subtract Contreras and Happ, add one of the FA SS and the lineup looks pretty rough to me. Would need a hell of a pitching staff to contend.

 

 

Turner SS

Hoerner 2B

Reyes DH

Morel CF

Suzuki RF

Mervis 1B

Velazquez LF

Wisdom 3B

Gomes C

[squally1313]

So subtract Contreras and Happ, add one of the FA SS and the lineup looks pretty rough to me. Would need a hell of a pitching staff to contend.

 

 

Turner SS

Hoerner 2B

Reyes DH

Morel CF

Suzuki RF

Mervis 1B

Velazquez LF

Wisdom 3B

Gomes C

 

Well, we will have Happ for next year. I don't think that's all the money that's available, and doesn't seem like it would be a ton of money to upgrade a corner infield position. And then yes, you're relying on Davis et al to upgrade the other spots.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So subtract Contreras and Happ, add one of the FA SS and the lineup looks pretty rough to me. Would need a hell of a pitching staff to contend.

 

 

Turner SS

Hoerner 2B

Reyes DH

Morel CF

Suzuki RF

Mervis 1B

Velazquez LF

Wisdom 3B

Gomes C

 

If the SS is the only position player of substance you're adding and you subtract Happ, you could do a fair amount to upgrade the pitching staff. Something like Rodon and Smyly would probably be within reach, with the knock on effects for the pen(Thompson/Wesneski filling bullpen roles) on top of having money to replenish a new season's Robertson/Givens/etc.

 

More likely though, you can scale that down to Taillon and Smyly, or Syndegaard and Smyly, and be able to add a Bellinger or a Narvaez(maybe both) to beef up that group. Plus you get *something* for Happ, and odds are with the current trajectory they would want that to be an MLB or near-MLB ready piece.

[squally1313]

More broadly, the path from 56-75 to legitimate contender is not through a substitution and then another 1-2 FAs. One of the main reasons the lineup looks this bad is because instead of keeping (and potentially extending) good hitters, we traded them for prospects. Prospects that turned our system good, and can (hopefully!) either contribute to the Cubs sooner rather than later or be used to trade for players who can (again, hopefully!) help immediately. Throwing out that lineup without including any of the top prospects in the system or factoring in potential trades of those top prospects isn't quite a fair analysis. And ultimately, if those prospects stink and lose value, we're probably screwed whether or not you slot Contreras into that catching slot or not.

[Bertz]

One thing that sucks about signing Contreras long term is that his roster fit gets really crummy very quickly once he starts declining.

 

As a ~125 wRC+ guy and a below average defensive catcher you can currently shift his playing time between catching and DH/1B pretty much any way you want and be happy with the net result. Have a full time catcher you love already? Great, Willson's still a desirable bat-first guy. Want to give him something closer to full time catcher duty? We've seen that that works too.

 

But what about a year or two from now when he's slipped a bit? Yes DH's this year have a 106 wRC+, so technically something like a 110 is "above average," but to be a full time/most time DH? The bar is a good bit higher, more like 120-130. Willson can't really slip that much offensively from where he is right now and stay productive as a primary DH. Playable sure, desirable no.

 

Instead of with the bat, what If he slips defensively and has to move further off catcher? You've got a good but not elite right handed hitter locked into one of those roster spots. In a vacuum that's not the worst thing in the world, but given the org's surplus of RHH bats it definitely seems like a waste to pay market rates for a non-elite RHH bat with no defensive value? I know "but what if all his defensive value evaporates overnight" seems like a silly hypothetical, but that's unfortunately the deal with catchers. Go look at Victor Martinez or Carlos Santana, once guys stop catching so much it usually snowballs pretty quickly. And unlike say, a shortstop, who can gracefully slide down the defensive ladder after getting moved off the position, catchers inherently go immediately from top of the defensive spectrum to damn near the bottom.

 

I just generally tend to think that Willson, even on a 4-5 year contract, is gonna be kind of a drag in the back half of his deal. I'm cool with re-signing him, but IMO the argument needs to mostly be centered on "he's a cool dude and should be rewarded" because I'm very unconvinced it's the right call from a win/loss perspective. Especially since the implications we've gotten from the industry (the blase attitude the Cubs have had towards keeping him, the lack of TDL interest, the more explicit reporting from Passan/Rosenthal/etc.) say that if anything his defense is a good bit worse than we're privvy to.

 

Also, on the other discussion, why the hell would we move Happ? The lineup cannot afford to get any less left handed, and with the critical mass of outfielders in the upper minors having a good reliable OF in his walk year on next year's team is perfect. The dealing Happ ship sailed on August 2nd IMO.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, on the other discussion, why the hell would we move Happ? The lineup cannot afford to get any less left handed, and with the critical mass of outfielders in the upper minors having a good reliable OF in his walk year on next year's team is perfect. The dealing Happ ship sailed on August 2nd IMO.

 

I think the argument is that the 40 man has an imbalance in players who are corner outfielders on a good team. Happ, Suzuki, Velazquez, Davis, Canario, Ortega, maybe toss Morel in that group too depending on the roster build(or PCA's ascent), and it's very deep with too much to go around, especially relative to the infield. So this offseason is a good time to make a decision and trade *somebody*, maybe more than one somebody. Happ is a more narrow trade fit than the guys with more team control(and is more unique than the rest for reasons you said), but the rewards are potentially higher because you also free up his money to do something more substantial with your offseason plans. Yes there's a quality gap between Happ and the youngsters/Ortega, but between their quality and the sheer numbers that difference is less than similar gaps in cost on the IF or on the pitching staff(because of how $$ misses compound on a staff like we've seen this year).

[Bertz]

Also, on the other discussion, why the hell would we move Happ? The lineup cannot afford to get any less left handed, and with the critical mass of outfielders in the upper minors having a good reliable OF in his walk year on next year's team is perfect. The dealing Happ ship sailed on August 2nd IMO.

 

I think the argument is that the 40 man has an imbalance in players who are corner outfielders on a good team. Happ, Suzuki, Velazquez, Davis, Canario, Ortega, maybe toss Morel in that group too depending on the roster build(or PCA's ascent), and it's very deep with too much to go around, especially relative to the infield. So this offseason is a good time to make a decision and trade *somebody*, maybe more than one somebody. Happ is a more narrow trade fit than the guys with more team control(and is more unique than the rest for reasons you said), but the rewards are potentially higher because you also free up his money to do something more substantial with your offseason plans. Yes there's a quality gap between Happ and the youngsters/Ortega, but between their quality and the sheer numbers that difference is less than similar gaps in cost on the IF or on the pitching staff(because of how $$ misses compound on a staff like we've seen this year).

 

I'm definitely with you on the first half. I think there's not really room in the org for all three of Davis/Nelly/Canario. The team probably needs to fill at least one of it's holes via trade, and the headliner of that trade should be from that surplus of RHH defensive tweener CFers

 

On the Happ part though, what you're saying totally makes sense in a vaccum but IMO if Jed wasn't able to find a deal at the deadline where the trade return plus Happ's '23 salary was more valuable than keeping Happ, it seems very unlikely that'll be on the table this winter.

 

I know we don't think of Happ's as a model of consistency, but aside from 1H '21 he's routinely been between a 125 and 135 wRC since he got back from being banished to Iowa. He's a pretty safe bet for roughly 3 WAR, and helps mitigate some of the uncertainty around Seiya and the parade of youths that get rolled out in CF until Ross finds someone who sticks, and then Happ rolls off right in time for PCA/Caissie to duke it out in 1H '24.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the Happ part though, what you're saying totally makes sense in a vaccum but IMO if Jed wasn't able to find a deal at the deadline where the trade return plus Happ's '23 salary was more valuable than keeping Happ, it seems very unlikely that'll be on the table this winter.

 

I think the main difference between the deadline and the offseason(aside from Happ's value going down by a third) is that Jed's motivation may go up/asking price come down if he sees a need to use Happ's money elsewhere. Especially if he isn't planning on QO'ing or extending Happ, that marginal benefit could net out.

 

But ultimately I'm with you in that it doesn't seem super likely, and the talking point is a byproduct of public/private information asymmetry. We do know Happ's contract situation and that he was rumored to be dealt before, we don't know who expressed various degrees of interest in any of the young OFs, who those teams might be willing to trade, etc.

[muntjack]

More broadly, the path from 56-75 to legitimate contender is not through a substitution and then another 1-2 FAs. One of the main reasons the lineup looks this bad is because instead of keeping (and potentially extending) good hitters, we traded them for prospects. Prospects that turned our system good, and can (hopefully!) either contribute to the Cubs sooner rather than later or be used to trade for players who can (again, hopefully!) help immediately. Throwing out that lineup without including any of the top prospects in the system or factoring in potential trades of those top prospects isn't quite a fair analysis. And ultimately, if those prospects stink and lose value, we're probably screwed whether or not you slot Contreras into that catching slot or not.

 

 

I mean, I understand that we can trade our good hitters for prospects and then use those prospects to bolster the roster, either via trade or by calling them up. I would simply argue that, as currently constructed, and considering how few good offensive catchers there are currently in MLB, that signing Willson Contreras to a reasonable contract, if possible, would be a smart move. If the dude demands 6 years, by all means, good luck and godspeed. If 3-4 years @ ~20/yr is possible, bring him back. It will go a long way toward lengthening that lineup. If my choices are:

 

Turner @ 35/yr + Hoerner + Hedges or

 

Hoerner + Madrigal + Contreras @ 20/yr, I'll take this one and use the $$$ toward the rotation or Bell or something <----

 

I'm also a proponent of signing Happ to a reasonable extension if possible. He's a switch hitter who just turned 28 and has been the 6th most valuable OF in the NL this season. You want to contend, he should stay on the team. You can still bolster the roster in the same way as before. Bring prospects up. Trade prospects. Between Davis/PCA/Canario/Alcantara/Pinango, etc. we can find another OF or two and upgrade the hell out of the rotation via trade.

[squally1313]

More broadly, the path from 56-75 to legitimate contender is not through a substitution and then another 1-2 FAs. One of the main reasons the lineup looks this bad is because instead of keeping (and potentially extending) good hitters, we traded them for prospects. Prospects that turned our system good, and can (hopefully!) either contribute to the Cubs sooner rather than later or be used to trade for players who can (again, hopefully!) help immediately. Throwing out that lineup without including any of the top prospects in the system or factoring in potential trades of those top prospects isn't quite a fair analysis. And ultimately, if those prospects stink and lose value, we're probably screwed whether or not you slot Contreras into that catching slot or not.

 

 

I mean, I understand that we can trade our good hitters for prospects and then use those prospects to bolster the roster, either via trade or by calling them up. I would simply argue that, as currently constructed, and considering how few good offensive catchers there are currently in MLB, that signing Willson Contreras to a reasonable contract, if possible, would be a smart move. If the dude demands 6 years, by all means, good luck and godspeed. If 3-4 years @ ~20/yr is possible, bring him back. It will go a long way toward lengthening that lineup. If my choices are:

 

Turner @ 35/yr + Hoerner + Hedges or

 

Hoerner + Madrigal + Contreras @ 20/yr, I'll take this one and use the $$$ toward the rotation or Bell or something <----

 

 

I'd take Turner over Madrigal + Contreras going forward, along with A. hoping they can find a catcher who actually produces value (unlike Hedges) for $5ish million and B. taking advantage of either the increased flexibility of having Turner/Hoerner/Madrigal up the middle or seeing if you can get something of value for Madrigals 4 more years of team control.

 

Contreras is a good, if not elite offensive catcher. He's below average defensively, which in total puts him comfortably in the "above average but not elite" group of catchers. That's his current form....all reasonable expectations say that he will trend downwards. I don't know a good way of saying that a good offensive catcher is not close to the top of list of priorities, but it's where I am. You just need offense. Paying $20m/year to hope your above average catcher remains an above average catcher seems like not the best use of resources.

[muntjack]

Contreras is a good, if not elite offensive catcher.

 

I think this is where a good portion of the schism lies.

 

Contreras has a 132 wRC+, which, for catchers, is #1 in the NL and #2 in MLB behind Alejandro Kirk.

 

If you are #1 in the league, that's elite, right?

[squally1313]

Contreras is a good, if not elite offensive catcher.

 

I think this is where a good portion of the schism lies.

 

Contreras has a 132 wRC+, which, for catchers, is #1 in the NL and #2 in MLB behind Alejandro Kirk.

 

If you are #1 in the league, that's elite, right?

 

I don’t understand how this argument keeps coming up. We have more than 5 months of data to go on. Do whatever kind of weighted trend line you want, this is the best he’s ever performed. Are we just throwing out career performance now when projecting future ability? Is Soto just an above average player and not the complete stud hes been for the rest of his career? No, probably not! You good projecting Javy as an 80 wRC guy the rest of his career? I would love to sign 2022 Contreras to a long term deal. That’s not who you’re getting!

[squally1313]

I don’t understand how this argument keeps coming up. We have more than 5 months of data to go on. Do whatever kind of weighted trend line you want, this is the best he’s ever performed. Are we just throwing out career performance now when projecting future ability? Is Soto just an above average player and not the complete stud hes been for the rest of his career? No, probably not! You good projecting Javy as an 80 wRC guy the rest of his career? I would love to sign 2022 Contreras to a long term deal. That’s not who you’re getting!

 

Contreras by wOBA:

 

.368 (2019)

.363 (2016)

.362 (2017)

.359 (2022)

 

He's running a .273 BABIP in 2022 to go with that .362 xwOBA, ran .300+ BABIPs those other years

 

Juan Soto has a .409 OBP, .387 wOBA, .415 xwOBA, a 150 wRC+....What's not completely studly about that?

Are we wOBA fans now? Here I was going along with wRC, but sure, if it fits your argument, let’s switch over. Could we say that his best days are behind him? Or are we only interpreting certain stats certain ways.

 

Do Javy please. Or how about pujols.

[squally1313]

Could we say that his best days are behind him?

 

We're one page off from you agreeing with the 2022 periphs being in line with the jump in/breakout performance this year.

 

He's 30 now and is past days of league leading defensive workloads, so what's the hold up? Why didn't he collapse this year? This 115-118 / 30+ combo you're riding is already 0/1 on age 30 seasons!

 

No idea the Baez/Pujols context or relevance :dontknow:

 

I was simply saying that he wasn't BABIPing his way to this performance, which might have been misthinking it because the stats we were referring to were normalizing it. His underlying 2022 numbers are solid. You are not signing 2022 Willson Contreras. You are signing 2023-2026/2027 Willson Contreras and are trying everything you can to determine what that guy looks like. You could, on your end, look at his numbers this year, say this is legit, this is the kind of hitter he is now, let's go get him. In that mindset, you're probably also trying to talk Pujols out of retirement to give you something close to his 140 wRC this year, or if you're the Tigers GM you're trying to cut Baez or sell him for scraps because that 78 wRC is pretty unplayable going forward. Or, maybe, you can look at a slightly bigger picture. I'm going with option B personally.

 

You do realize that 'he doesn't catch nearly as much anymore!' isn't helping your case the way you think it might be right? I guess that's what you were getting at earlier, that this shift away from catching is the key to the increased offense and therefore this switch is permanent and he can go from an above average offensive catcher at 115 wRC to an above average DH at 130? I just don't think he's going to be that kind of hitter going forward (and yes, again, I know he's that kind of hitter now, maybe*).

 

*86 wRC since July 1. Which, I hate shortening sample sizes! But if we're going to continue to laser focus on the last 5 months, I'll point out the last 2. (And then you can point to 125 wRC since August 1. etc etc etc)

[squally1313]

So we are just picking and choosing now? He's a good hitter. Just because he has good peripherals now does not mean he will next year. See his performance in 2019 compared to 2020 and 2021. Or his performance in the first half this year to the second half of this year (somehow didn't quote that one!). I don't think he will remain the hitter that he is now. I could be wrong! But the rest of his career counts, as much as you pretend that it doesn't, and there's roughly 100,000 data points that make up a pretty reliable aging curve for baseball players. Of course there are outliers there (see Willson Contreras in 2022). But you generally want to assume the things that happen more often than not will happen in the future. Apologies for not offering a comprehensive alternative plan, but I don't think that's necessary to further my point of 'I don't want to commit to a long term contract to a catcher/DH in his 30s, even though it would be cool because he's sweet'.

[Bertz]

 

Unfortunately this article seems to be more Mooney than Sharma, but a few things stood out. On power generally:

 

After juiced balls likely led to another rise in ISO the last few years, 2022’s humidors and deadened baseballs have helped power reach similar levels — the current mark of .152 is just a point above the 2012 season — from the early part of last decade. The sapping of power is not just an issue specific to the Cubs. It’s a leaguewide problem. Still, the Cubs know it’s a weakness they must rectify this winter if they’re going to exit this rebuilding phase and truly compete for a playoff spot next season.

 

“We have to think through how to reconfigure our offense,” Hoyer said. “We don’t have enough power right now. We have to get the ball in the air more.”

 

On the Franimal:

 

The pure results from Reyes have been solid so far with the Cubs. In 23 games, he’s hit four home runs and posted a solid 119 wRC+, which is about what the best version of Reyes has done in the past. But what’s standing out are his swing decisions. Well, perhaps just his decision to swing. He’s swinging more often at pitches both in and out of the zone, but the benefit here is that he’s making more contact on both, but in particular the ones in the zone, from 76.9 percent with Cleveland earlier this year to 86.8 percent so far with the Cubs, according to Statcast.

 

Overall, his contact rate with the Cubs is above 70 percent, something he’s never done over the course of a full season. He’s still hitting the ball hard, which he never stopped doing in Cleveland, but that soft contact has been nearly nonexistent with Chicago. Is it a trend? Is it a blip? Those are the things the Cubs will be determining over the next month and asking during the offseason. Perhaps real changes have been made, and the comfort Reyes said he’s immediately felt with the Cubs is paying dividends.

 

And the money quote. On the offseason:

 

At minimum this winter, it looks like the Cubs will layer their roster with two more large investments along the lines of the contracts guaranteed to Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman. Signing one of the All-Star shortstops — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — and a frontline starting pitcher like Kodai Senga out of Japan would move the needle.

[Tim]

Cubs position fWAR rankings as of today:

 

C: 8th

1B: 27th

2B: 25th

3B: 25th

SS: 8th

LF: 6th

CF: 21st

RF: 21st

DH: 7th

 

That's...not great. Also not great is that the primary contributor to the C & DH ranking is a free agent. Also not great is that the primary LF has a wOBA of .351 but an xwOBA of .309. the wOBA for the position ranks third - Happ's xwOBA would rank 20th on that list (though there might be others that would fall with that adjustment, too).

 

We can reasonably hope for better results at RF with health from Seiya and an adjustment in his second season. One of SS or 2B is locked down with Hoerner. Every single other position should be up for grabs. It would be understandable if the Cubs went with a broad-based investment instead of targeting one of the SS at the top of the market.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We can reasonably hope for better results at RF with health from Seiya and an adjustment in his second season. One of SS or 2B is locked down with Hoerner. Every single other position should be up for grabs. It would be understandable if the Cubs went with a broad-based investment instead of targeting one of the SS at the top of the market.

 

I think this is probably a good reason not to invest in multiple SP, especially given the high minors depth and the more significant developmental success they've had on the mound. I can't go as far to say it makes more sense to go wide instead of deep on hitters though. For one it's easier to luck into 10-15 performance at a position than it is Top 5, and those raw rankings aren't representative of guys like Morel(contributing to multiple positions), Reyes(recently added), Davis(prospect), Mervis(prospect), or even Madrigal if you want to believe his start of 2022 was the outlier. That doesn't mean you don't add other position players, you need to do something with catcher and I'd vote for a LH CF that's an above average defender on top of the star level bat. But I wouldn't steer away from a Correa or a Turner just because it means I can't sign Josh Bell and Brandon Nimmo instead.

[Gilby]

I still really want at least 2 starters. Keegan has a 4.80 ERA as a starter and can be a real weapon in the pen, you can't count on Hendricks, and I think Killian might be a little broken. Wesneski is interesting, but he can hang out at AAA to start the season.

 

Personally, I am a little more optimistic on some of the position players. Get a difference-maker on the infield and good defense at C in CF (which shouldn't be that expensive) and I think it's fine. And we have the 2023 ROY at 1B.

[Bertz]

When taking stock its generally better to start from scratch rather than looking at the current year and doing a bunch of adjustments. Because for instance when you look at 2B, how relevant are Villar and Andrelton Simmons to the discussion?

 

Right now on the position player side I think the only spot we should feel outright bad about is catcher. Everywhere else satisfies at least two of the following conditiins:

 

A) has a quality player (projects >2 WAR/600 PAs) lined up to start

B) has a quality youth at Iowa ready to step in

C) can be backed up by Morel and/or Wisdom

 

Because of the above, I also think going broad is the exact opposite approach to take this offseason. The team has multiple options almost everywhere, add a bonafide lineup anchor so that Ross has a few months to work through the various iteratons without it sinking the team. For example if we're spending 30ish million to get 4 WAR, I'd MUCH rather have Carlos Correa than Kolten Wong and Josh Bell.

 

And honestly because of Kilian/Wesneski I think the same exact arguments apply to the starting pitcher group. It'd be far preferable to add one Rodon than two guys in the Eovaldi/Syndergaard/Clevinger tier.

 

The org has some depth now, the name of the game this winter should be consolidation.