2022 Trade Deadline

[muntjack]

3 pitchers. Chandler Champlain, Beck Way and T.J. Sikkema

 

All in A or A+, all performing to varying degrees. Recent college draftees, 40FV guys entering the season.

[Bull]

https://www.nj.com/sports/2022/07/mets-face-trade-deadline-bidding-war-for-cubs-willson-contreras-with-al-contender.html?outputType=amp

 

Are we still afraid of Astros pitchers?

Edited July 28, 2022 by Bull

[Bertz]

 

This seems oddly specific

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Frasso's a 40+ FV on Fangraphs, which is an upgrade following this look from earlier this season:

 

I was back at the Blue Jays place the following day for more extended spring action, this time against the Phillies (I’m saving my notes on the Phils kids for a followup post on this trip). The revelation on this day, and perhaps the most significant, opinion-altering look of the entire trip, was seeing Blue Jays righty Nick Frasso. Coming out of Loyola Marymount, Frasso was an atypical college draftee, with his prospectdom more about projection than present stuff. He showed an arm strength bump early in 2021 before blowing out and requiring Tommy John in June. He’s not even 11 months clear of the surgery and is already back and throwing every bit as hard as he was in 2021, sitting 94-96 mph and touching 97-98 in this short look.

 

Perhaps more importantly, Frasso’s breaking ball has added power and velocity. Once a loopy, low-80s slurve, Frasso’s slider is now a real mid-80s weapon in the 83-85 mph range. He showed good feel for landing this pitch in the zone for strikes, and he threw one vicious back-foot breaking ball at the end of his outing. He also has a high-spin changeup with lots of horizontal movement, but his feel for that pitch is understandably behind. I’ve moved Frasso from the 35+ FV tier (he had ranked 32nd, with the idea that we wanted to see how he looked coming out of rehab since he was throwing harder prior to blowing out) into the 40+ FV tier on the Jays list, as he now looks likely to be a solid big league reliever given the current state of his stuff, while his developmental context (smaller school prospect with big physical projection, missed reps due to surgery, new breaking ball) allows for abstract projection that might make him an impact big league arm with continued development.

 

[muntjack]

40+ relief prospect absolutely CANNOT be the headliner for a 27-yr-old all star under control until '24.

[Rex Buckingham]

I feel like Happ ought to bring back no less than a top 100 guy as the headliner. They don't HAVE to trade him.

[Bertz]

 

Starting to feel like this has legs

 

I am of the mind that a Happ deal does need to net some pretty immediate help. So like even if e.g. Tiedemann/Frasso grades out as a fair trade I don't think it's something the Cubs should do. So I'm very curious what a package would ultimately look like.

[Gilby]

If we trade Happ for a package led by a single A pitcher, I will be disappointed and I'll try to convince myself we must have a handshake deal with Conforto or something

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am of the mind that a Happ deal does need to net some pretty immediate help. So like even if e.g. Tiedemann/Frasso grades out as a fair trade I don't think it's something the Cubs should do. So I'm very curious what a package would ultimately look like.

 

I'm of a similar mind, but there's not a super obvious fit that qualifies. Maybe they think they can stretch out Pearson? Or they're confident of a swing change that levels up Groshans?

[champaignchris]

Would Gabriel Moreno be too big an ask for Happ? Happ + Robertson? Moreno would fill a pretty obvious need.

[Bertz]

I am of the mind that a Happ deal does need to net some pretty immediate help. So like even if e.g. Tiedemann/Frasso grades out as a fair trade I don't think it's something the Cubs should do. So I'm very curious what a package would ultimately look like.

 

I'm of a similar mind, but there's not a super obvious fit that qualifies. Maybe they think they can stretch out Pearson? Or they're confident of a swing change that levels up Groshans?

 

Looking at BTV, a couple other imperfect options:

 

- Gurriel is worth ~half of Happ. It's a bit weird to just swap left fielders but Happ's better and LH, and the Jays may be on the part of the win curve where those incremental improvements are worth burning up a year of cost control and a couple modest prospects?

 

- Danny Jansen and Happ are worth about the same. I hate this idea, but the Jays have Kirk and the Cubs need catching help. Jansen makes Nico look like Cal Ripken, but he's been a star during his intermittent/infrequent playing time

 

- Like I said above Tiedemann and Frasso looks about right, Jed might give zero horsefeathers and go for it to grab the guy who would probably be the top pitcher in the system

 

- The Jays are a candidate for relief help, so maybe Happ plus Robertson and/or Givens opens up some of the options that the Cubs would be more excited about?

 

I don't love any of the above, but I could see them? Or obviously there could be additional pop-up guys not prominent on the current prospect lists and a more traditional trade happens.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am of the mind that a Happ deal does need to net some pretty immediate help. So like even if e.g. Tiedemann/Frasso grades out as a fair trade I don't think it's something the Cubs should do. So I'm very curious what a package would ultimately look like.

 

I'm of a similar mind, but there's not a super obvious fit that qualifies. Maybe they think they can stretch out Pearson? Or they're confident of a swing change that levels up Groshans?

 

Looking at BTV, a couple other imperfect options:

 

- Gurriel is worth ~half of Happ. It's a bit weird to just swap left fielders but Happ's better and LH, and the Jays may be on the part of the win curve where those incremental improvements are worth burning up a year of cost control and a couple modest prospects?

 

- Danny Jansen and Happ are worth about the same. I hate this idea, but the Jays have Kirk and the Cubs need catching help. Jansen makes Nico look like Cal Ripken, but he's been a star during his intermittent/infrequent playing time

 

- Like I said above Tiedemann and Frasso looks about right, Jed might give zero horsefeathers and go for it to grab the guy who would probably be the top pitcher in the system

 

- The Jays are a candidate for relief help, so maybe Happ plus Robertson and/or Givens opens up some of the options that the Cubs would be more excited about?

 

I don't love any of the above, but I could see them? Or obviously there could be additional pop-up guys not prominent on the current prospect lists and a more traditional trade happens.

 

Gurriel would be really puzzling. He's almost 29, only one more year of team control than Happ, worse as a player like you mention, and makes them even more right handed.

 

The catching angle makes more sense in one direction or another, but still feels like a stretch. Jansen is a very interesting target(and one worth revisiting this offseason at a minimum), but 2.5 years of control dims his value as a primary piece. Maybe you get into Moreno territory if you package Happ with Robertson? Seems doubtful but at least they can rely on their existing options with Jansen and Kirk, unlike the C possibilities in SD, CLE, and SF.

[chopsx9]

Would Gabriel Moreno be too big an ask for Happ? Happ + Robertson? Moreno would fill a pretty obvious need.

 

Think you'd have to go Thompson + Happ + Robertson for Moreno + Kikuchi+ lottery maybe 2 lotteries - you'd have to be high on Moreno I think. Prospect catchers always make me nervous.

[muntjack]

 

Think you'd have to go Thompson + Happ + Robertson for Moreno + Kikuchi+ lottery maybe 2 lotteries -

 

This is an abomination. We're taking on salary, trading a younger, better pitcher for an older, bad one and then exchanging Happ and Robertson for Amaya with less power?

[chopsx9]

 

Think you'd have to go Thompson + Happ + Robertson for Moreno + Kikuchi+ lottery maybe 2 lotteries -

 

This is an abomination. We're taking on salary, trading a younger, better pitcher for an older, bad one and then exchanging Happ and Robertson for Amaya with less power?

Moreno is a top 10 prospect (top 5?) in all of Baseball - Amaya isn't even in the Cubs top 15 maybe even 20 prospects anymore so if that's your best comparison of the two.. field hockey season starts soon. Cubs are taking on salary - because they can -with a LH who throws 95 and may be fixable...plus 2 prospects. The question posed was how to get Moreno - Madrigal and Daniel Norris aren't going to get it done this isn't a ride at Disneyland. IF you want Moreno its going to hurt.

[muntjack]

 

Think you'd have to go Thompson + Happ + Robertson for Moreno + Kikuchi+ lottery maybe 2 lotteries -

 

This is an abomination. We're taking on salary, trading a younger, better pitcher for an older, bad one and then exchanging Happ and Robertson for Amaya with less power?

Moreno is a top 10 prospect (top 5?) in all of Baseball - Amaya isn't even in the Cubs top 15 maybe even 20 prospects anymore so if that's your best comparison of the two.. field hockey season starts soon. Cubs are taking on salary - because they can -with a LH who throws 95 and may be fixable...plus 2 prospects. The question posed was how to get Moreno - Madrigal and Daniel Norris aren't going to get it done this isn't a ride at Disneyland. IF you want Moreno its going to hurt.

 

I get that he's a top 5 prospect, I'm just completely unsold on him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm wondering a bit if Happ isn't getting traded at the deadline. In the last 2 weeks you've had Soto come onto the market to attract attention/resources from the top of the market, the retention of the qualifying offer makes Happ's price all the higher(since the acquiring team would be able to get his QO pick), and a couple potential fits have already started making minor acquisitions that indicate they aren't in on him(Yankees, Mets).

[JeffH]

I'm wondering a bit if Happ isn't getting traded at the deadline. In the last 2 weeks you've had Soto come onto the market to attract attention/resources from the top of the market, the retention of the qualifying offer makes Happ's price all the higher(since the acquiring team would be able to get his QO pick), and a couple potential fits have already started making minor acquisitions that indicate they aren't in on him(Yankees, Mets).

 

Did this rule change?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm wondering a bit if Happ isn't getting traded at the deadline. In the last 2 weeks you've had Soto come onto the market to attract attention/resources from the top of the market, the retention of the qualifying offer makes Happ's price all the higher(since the acquiring team would be able to get his QO pick), and a couple potential fits have already started making minor acquisitions that indicate they aren't in on him(Yankees, Mets).

 

Did this rule change?

 

It likely would have if the international draft had been implemented, which was assumed to be coming until those talks fell apart. What I read at least said that pick comp would be limited to those reaching FA with their original team or something in that vein.

[Bertz]

I dunno, the smoke around a Happ trade has escalated substantially over the last week or so. It feels pretty inevitable at this point.

 

My thought is basically that Jed needs to come out of this deadline with a position player you can reasonably hand an everyday spot to next year and a SP you'd feel comfortable giving starts to in April/May if there are injuries.

 

So while in my mind's eye that position player is a Luis Campusano type acquisition, we can always fall back on it just being Happ. I mean if you hold onto Happ you could pretty easily run out a lineup like this next year:

 

Until - Morel

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

3B - Carlos Correa

1B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner

CF - Ortega/Nelly platoon

C - Omar Narvaez/Gomes platoon

2B - Madrigal

 

It's not exactly the Dodgers, but that's a very solid lineup, particularly given that you'll have a very loaded Iowa team nipping at the heels of anybody underperforming from that bottom third of the order.

 

The team needs to compete next year. Dealing Happ and competing are not mutually exclusive, but you can't just deal him for a pitcher in A Ball, no matter how fun.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I dunno, the smoke around a Happ trade has escalated substantially over the last week or so. It feels pretty inevitable at this point

 

I'm quite certain they're *trying* to trade him, when the topic came up months ago my thinking was the minimal control, career year, and most importantly LF only profile make it easier to make a better 2023+ by trading him, and that still holds true. Where I'm less certain is if they'll find a willing buyer at the price he needs to fetch, even before getting into the MLB readiness side of the return.

[Bertz]

 

Gomez is in the Bob/Bowden school of usually wrong but right just often enough that you have to pay attention

[Bertz]

 

Willson likes to stir the pot on social but given what we know is coming this might be a sign it's happening imminently

[CubinNY]

lol, the Cubs are going to wind up trading no one.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The 'can't blame them after PCA' rhetoric is gonna drive me to scream into a pillow. You got Javier Baez who put up 2 fWAR in 50 high leverage games! You also got Trevor Williams who has a 3.30 ERA in 90 IP and continues to contribute! That's how deadline trades work, you sacrifice value tomorrow for value today! Having buyer's remorse about this is just admitting you're mad you didn't rip the other team off.