Bears off-season thread 2022

[JeffH]

Depending on how the draft falls out, how would we feel if the Bears went WR with both second rounders?

[David]

Depending on how the draft falls out, how would we feel if the Bears went WR with both second rounders?

 

do it

[Outshined_One]

Depending on how the draft falls out, how would we feel if the Bears went WR with both second rounders?

 

do it

 

Same.

[jersey cubs fan]

Depending on how the draft falls out, how would we feel if the Bears went WR with both second rounders?

 

do it

 

Same.

BOPA

[WrigleyField 22]

DBB posting a bunch about the OL this afternoon, but all feels very editorialized and spinny. And I'm not even sure we should assume his sources are gonna be that close to Poles thought processes (been theorized his source is close to Ted)

 

But fwiw he basically said:

 

Poles wants Armstead

Had no interest in Daniels

Not sure in Jenkins is T

Not sure if Borom is starter

Old FAs wont solve their issues.

 

Connected all those tweets IF true basically mean needing to draft 2 or 3 OL starters, depending on Armstead outcome. I'm not convinced.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

do it

 

Same.

BOPA

Still think he could hit wave 3 FA hard enough on O to be true BPA, but we'll see how the next 3 days shake out.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Same.

BOPA

Still think he could hit wave 3 FA hard enough on O to be true BPA, but we'll see how the next 3 days shake out.

I'm sure he could, what I'm saying is even if they did that, I still want the BOPA.

[Soul]

We've just hit 24 hour mark of FA and it appears all of Poles goodwill on Bears Twitter is officially gone lol.

 

It's a bit ridiculous. The Bears have a ton of roster spots to fill so they are going to add FAs. I always figured we would be shopping from more of the secondary tier of FAs anyways. Give the dude a chance to execute his plan.

What do they want, go on a FA signing spree like the Jags are? I think we've been down that road before more than once, got us here with a completely revamped leadership team and few draft picks to help rebuild the team.

 

 

Build through the draft first. For us, that means getting the draft picks to begin with. Gonna take time...

[WrigleyField 22]

We've just hit 24 hour mark of FA and it appears all of Poles goodwill on Bears Twitter is officially gone lol.

 

It's a bit ridiculous. The Bears have a ton of roster spots to fill so they are going to add FAs. I always figured we would be shopping from more of the secondary tier of FAs anyways. Give the dude a chance to execute his plan.

What do they want, go on a FA signing spree like the Jags are? I think we've been down that road before more than once, got us here with a completely revamped leadership team and few draft picks to help rebuild the team.

 

 

Build through the draft first. For us, that means getting the draft picks to begin with. Gonna take time...

I want them to spend money. I think it's false you have to "first draft". They can walk and talk at same time. That said I'm not sure there's necessarily a inherently better way to spend it vis a vie big splashes on day 1/2 verse mid-range signings. The only preference I do have is keeping CFA signings at a net defecit as often as possible. But that can be employed in either strategy.

 

Willing to see things out and judge the offseason as a whole rather than bits and pieces of it (and even then grading the offseason is meaningless until games are played).

[WrigleyField 22]

BOPA

Still think he could hit wave 3 FA hard enough on O to be true BPA, but we'll see how the next 3 days shake out.

I'm sure he could, what I'm saying is even if they did that, I still want the BOPA.

There's some D players that look like they'd be good adds. I would be most interested in a CB with one of the first 3 people picks at least. Some intriguing LB, but positionally I know that's less important. But also a strong edge class and that's suddenly a more realistic value spot for the Bears than it was a week ago.

 

I'm okay with a balanced approach all in all. Just don't wanna see them pigeonholed because at 39 and 49, it's really tough to predict what will actually be there.

 

If I had to mock my perfect draft and not have to reach, it would prob be

Trade down for an extra 4th

Rd.2.1 - WR

Rd.2.2 - OL

Rd. 3 - CB

Rd. 4 - DL

Rd.5. 1 - RB or WR

Rd 5.2 - LB

Rd 6 - OL

[JeffH]

Build through the draft, yes, but we need to put in an infrastructure that will enhance Fields' development. Protect him, give him weapons, and install a system that favors him. If, to accomplish that, the OL and skill positions (OL especially) have to be built with "old guys", so be it.

[WrigleyField 22]

Build through the draft, yes, but we need to put in an infrastructure that will enhance Fields' development. Protect him, give him weapons, and install a system that favors him. If, to accomplish that, the OL and skill positions (OL especially) have to be built with "old guys", so be it.

Yep. Want some sure things for Fields support and FA is better for some sure things even if it isn't efficient.

[WrigleyField 22]

DBB is such a douche (also I haven't seen a single national guy echo this)

[David]

DBB is such a douche (also I haven't seen a single national guy echo this)

 

He is a douche, but I know of at least this one

 

[WrigleyField 22]

DBB is such a douche (also I haven't seen a single national guy echo this)

 

He is a douche, but I know of at least this one

 

Oh I've seen the Watson part, but no one saying Bears are in on him.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Young guy. 27 in July but spent 2021 on IR

 

29 career starts. Seems more like a Will, not Sam?

 

Edit-

Maybe he can be either

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay BOPA it is.

 

[WrigleyField 22]

We got an offensive player! (guessing a swing guy, maybe competing with a rookie.)

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We have a thin roster with a million holes. Waiting for bargain free agents is perfectly fine with me.

 

I don't think the NFL supports pure tanking, but there's a time to realize your assets are currently allocated very inefficiently and further inefficiency will be counterproductive.

[Bertz]

[WrigleyField 22]

We have a thin roster with a million holes. Waiting for bargain free agents is perfectly fine with me.

 

I don't think the NFL supports pure tanking, but there's a time to realize your assets are currently allocated very inefficiently and further inefficiency will be counterproductive.

In what way? Every NFL team is gonna spend pretty close to the same amount. There isn't a huge spending differnce. If you don't have your own good players, you sign other teams until you at least hit minimum spending thresholds.

 

Now you could hold back the 10% spending once you hit the minimum and role it forward to some future date, but I'm of the opinion it's gonna be hard to blow your load and spend efficiently later on when you hit the "were trying now phase".

 

The pure economic argument is to overspend the cap and defer cap hits to do so. Ideally only by a modest amount (one day I want to model out a target number, but I'm thinking it's 110-115% of cap as cash spending).

 

So just always be trying to improve incrimentally using both draft and FA. FA isn't efficient, but it can absolutely give you big leaps in team growth in absolute terms. About the only team building strategy that changes from rebuild to contender windows is how to use draft picks in veteran trades.

[raw]

I love Tyrann Mathieu as a player/leader, but I can't get behind trading Mack because you wanted to allocate more resources to the offense then probably spend 25M annually on Ogunjobi and Mathieu.

[WrigleyField 22]

I love Tyrann Mathieu as a player/leader, but I can't get behind trading Mack because you wanted to allocate more resources to the offense then probably spend 25M annually on Ogunjobi and Mathieu.

Can't argue with that.

[jumbo]

It's funny how everyone freaks out about the overpays in FA, but I am stunned at Kirk 4/72 or 4/84. It's far more than anyone thought, even though everyone agrees that FA day 1 is all about paying too much. It's a totally predictable cycle, but it still surprises.

Lots of fair-ish deals happen to, to lesser fanfare.

 

Ultimately the lesson is draft and develop. Buy low, buy castoffs. Not as easy as it sounds but when done correctly a major advantage.

 

I was listening to a podcast the other day about bad FA signings and how to avoid. One of the comments was to look at a player over a two year period. Ogunjobi is a perfect example. Last year he played for 1/6.2MM deal. Anyone could have had him. Now this year, he's 3/40, doubling his AAV. It happens every year, a guy breaks out and gets paid, but many of these guys overperform for a variety of reasons, cash in, and then regress and get cut. I don't know enough about Ogunjobi to say that will happen to him, but it's one of many red flags, or at least yellow flags for me when looking at this signing.

I think theres a little bit of conflating correlation and causation with analysis like this sometimes. Bad teams aren't ncessarily bad because they overspend in FA. They're overspending in FA because they drafted poorly. If you're bad, you can splurge big in FA and still try to improve the draft part. NFL isn't great for tanking benefits. Careers are too short and schedule too much variance.

 

There are certain narrow ways where FA spending inhibits draft development, but if anything it actually could mean the best bet is spending big in just a few areas rather than spreading around too much. And you have to spend a 90% target in actual cash so it's hard to underspend and if eventually you roll all that space over and have like a 100M cap room year you're basically guaranteed to spend it inefficiently then because you can't spend thst much all at once efficiently (or it would be very difficult).

 

I didn't intend to comment on good teams/bad teams in any way. Watching the first couple days of FA and seeing some predictable and surprising overpays reinforces the goal of every team, which is building through the draft.

 

Interesting comment on excessive cap space. I assume there is a salary floor, do we know what it is compared to the cap?

[WrigleyField 22]

It's funny how everyone freaks out about the overpays in FA, but I am stunned at Kirk 4/72 or 4/84. It's far more than anyone thought, even though everyone agrees that FA day 1 is all about paying too much. It's a totally predictable cycle, but it still surprises.

Lots of fair-ish deals happen to, to lesser fanfare.

 

Ultimately the lesson is draft and develop. Buy low, buy castoffs. Not as easy as it sounds but when done correctly a major advantage.

 

I was listening to a podcast the other day about bad FA signings and how to avoid. One of the comments was to look at a player over a two year period. Ogunjobi is a perfect example. Last year he played for 1/6.2MM deal. Anyone could have had him. Now this year, he's 3/40, doubling his AAV. It happens every year, a guy breaks out and gets paid, but many of these guys overperform for a variety of reasons, cash in, and then regress and get cut. I don't know enough about Ogunjobi to say that will happen to him, but it's one of many red flags, or at least yellow flags for me when looking at this signing.

I think theres a little bit of conflating correlation and causation with analysis like this sometimes. Bad teams aren't ncessarily bad because they overspend in FA. They're overspending in FA because they drafted poorly. If you're bad, you can splurge big in FA and still try to improve the draft part. NFL isn't great for tanking benefits. Careers are too short and schedule too much variance.

 

There are certain narrow ways where FA spending inhibits draft development, but if anything it actually could mean the best bet is spending big in just a few areas rather than spreading around too much. And you have to spend a 90% target in actual cash so it's hard to underspend and if eventually you roll all that space over and have like a 100M cap room year you're basically guaranteed to spend it inefficiently then because you can't spend thst much all at once efficiently (or it would be very difficult).

 

I didn't intend to comment on good teams/bad teams in any way. Watching the first couple days of FA and seeing some predictable and surprising overpays reinforces the goal of every team, which is building through the draft.

 

Interesting comment on excessive cap space. I assume there is a salary floor, do we know what it is compared to the cap?

Its technically a cash floor, not a cap floor, but for all intents basically the same because of the rollover provisions. It's 89% I think, over a 3 year period.