Cubs Claim Wade Miley off Waivers

[CubinNY]

Late to the party, but this is exactly the sort of move the Cubs should be making this offseason. He's almost certainly gone at the deadline, but he's a very solid bet to bring something of value back. And if he's performing like he did last year, that value could be sneakily high.

 

I always like these gambles with starting pitching more than position players as a general rule, too. Essentially every team will need more SP heading into the deadline. But there's no guarantees that any contenders would need a 3B or a 2B or whatever other veteran presence you've "hit" on for the season. Or even if a handful of teams need them, there may be a glut of that position available on the market. SP just seem to go for more in general unless some pretty specific situations play out.

How marketable was Zach Davies at the deadline?

[The SABR Gamer]

Late to the party, but this is exactly the sort of move the Cubs should be making this offseason. He's almost certainly gone at the deadline, but he's a very solid bet to bring something of value back. And if he's performing like he did last year, that value could be sneakily high.

 

I always like these gambles with starting pitching more than position players as a general rule, too. Essentially every team will need more SP heading into the deadline. But there's no guarantees that any contenders would need a 3B or a 2B or whatever other veteran presence you've "hit" on for the season. Or even if a handful of teams need them, there may be a glut of that position available on the market. SP just seem to go for more in general unless some pretty specific situations play out.

How marketable was Zach Davies at the deadline?

 

LOL, this guy is getting roasted in this thread and is like, “I’m just gonna ignore the boos and keep shooting shots.”

[CubinNY]

Late to the party, but this is exactly the sort of move the Cubs should be making this offseason. He's almost certainly gone at the deadline, but he's a very solid bet to bring something of value back. And if he's performing like he did last year, that value could be sneakily high.

 

I always like these gambles with starting pitching more than position players as a general rule, too. Essentially every team will need more SP heading into the deadline. But there's no guarantees that any contenders would need a 3B or a 2B or whatever other veteran presence you've "hit" on for the season. Or even if a handful of teams need them, there may be a glut of that position available on the market. SP just seem to go for more in general unless some pretty specific situations play out.

How marketable was Zach Davies at the deadline?

 

LOL, this guy is getting roasted in this thread and is like, “I’m just gonna ignore the boos and keep shooting shots.”

So how marketable was Zack Davies at the deadline? Wade Miley is a soon-to-be 35-year-old soft-tossing lefty five-inning pitcher who faded in the 2nd half of last season. He's not a guy to get excited about, nor is he a guy who's going to bring back any type of prospect in a trade at the deadline. He's Zack Davies who's four years older and throws with the other hand. The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

[The SABR Gamer]

How marketable was Zach Davies at the deadline?

 

LOL, this guy is getting roasted in this thread and is like, “I’m just gonna ignore the boos and keep shooting shots.”

So how marketable was Zack Davies at the deadline? Wade Miley is a soon-to-be 35-year-old soft-tossing lefty five-inning pitcher who faded in the 2nd half of last season. He's not a guy to get excited about, nor is he a guy who's going to bring back any type of prospect in a trade at the deadline. He's Zack Davies who's four years older and throws with the other hand. The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

 

Because Davies had a horrible season? Davies could have gotten something if he had been having a good year. Miley is also probably at least a bit better than Davies, regardless, and it’s definitely in the range of possible outcomes that he pitches well and would fetch something decent at the deadline.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Davies ERA v. xERA(expected wOBA based on exit velocity/launch angle converted to ERA scale) in the seasons prior to joining Chicago

 

ERA / xERA

3.90 / 4.77

4.77 / 4.48

3.55 / 5.17

2.73 / 5.13 (70 IP due to pandemic)

 

And now Miley:

 

ERA / xERA

2.57 / 3.87

3.98 / 3.83

5.65 / 5.63 (15 IP due to pandemic)

3.37 / 4.15

 

In the same way that every low velocity pitcher you have optimism for is not Kyle Hendricks, every low velocity pitcher you're pessimistic about is not Zach Davies. They have different past results, different pitch mixes, throw with different hands, and even different velocities(Miley's fastball averages 2 mph faster than both Davies and Hendricks) while still qualifying for the 'soft tosser' label.

[Rob]

Late to the party, but this is exactly the sort of move the Cubs should be making this offseason. He's almost certainly gone at the deadline, but he's a very solid bet to bring something of value back. And if he's performing like he did last year, that value could be sneakily high.

 

I always like these gambles with starting pitching more than position players as a general rule, too. Essentially every team will need more SP heading into the deadline. But there's no guarantees that any contenders would need a 3B or a 2B or whatever other veteran presence you've "hit" on for the season. Or even if a handful of teams need them, there may be a glut of that position available on the market. SP just seem to go for more in general unless some pretty specific situations play out.

How marketable was Zach Davies at the deadline?

 

You are smart enough to know that this game isn't played in certainties. Zach Davies had a range of outcomes from being worth nothing to being worth "x" -- x probably representing a couple prospects that might rank in the back end of our top 30, or maybe a post-hype sleeper guy. Davies had a terrible season and fell on the bad end of his range.

 

You know who had almost the exact same range of possible outcomes? Scott Feldman, who had a great half-season and turned into Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. Or Jason Hammel, whose great half-season (alongside Samardzija) helped net us Addison Russell. Or Paul Maholm, who had a mediocre half-season and turned into Arodys Vizcaino who turned into Tommy LaStella. Those guys worked out. Davies didn't work out. Neither did Clayton Richard, Dan Straily, or Chris Volstad, for that matter.

 

The point I'm making is that even smart front offices will miss on these guys. But when you're looking at this group as a whole, we've gotten way more value from these sorts of guys than the money we've put in. So I'm content to let them keep making those gambles. The equation might be different if we had a Triple A roster brimming with bright young SP talent and we need to get them reps at the ML level. But we don't. Somebody needs to pitch the innings, and this is a good gamble -- regardless of whether any individual bet pays off.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

I suppose you missed the part when he was worth more WAR last season than ANY INDIVIDUAL CUB LAST YEAR.

[CubinNY]

The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

I suppose you missed the part when he was worth more WAR last season than ANY INDIVIDUAL CUB LAST YEAR.

Let's set aside the issue of WAR (bWAR vs fWAR), for the time being, he hasn't had a season like that in 10 years. Expecting a 35 year old to repeat those results is not a bet most would be willing to make. I'm not sure what people are thinking here. I suppose in the universe where the Cubs need warm bodies to make starts, he's a guy.

[UMFan83]

The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

I suppose you missed the part when he was worth more WAR last season than ANY INDIVIDUAL CUB LAST YEAR.

Let's set aside the issue of WAR (bWAR vs fWAR), for the time being, he hasn't had a season like that in 10 years. Expecting a 35 year old to repeat those results is not a bet most would be willing to make. I'm not sure what people are thinking here. I suppose in the universe where the Cubs need warm bodies to make starts, he's a guy.

 

Just looking at fWAR because I think its better for pitching (correct me if I'm wrong), but Miley has averaged 1.9 fWAR over his last 10 seasons. It's not the 2.9 WAR he had last year and you are right to be a little concerned about age regression but I'm not sure you are doing better in FA if you are looking at a relatively affordable starter with no long-term obligation. But you are saying to set aside WAR. I don't see anything in his numbers that jumps out as an extreme outlier last year. K/9 is actually lower than career average. His walk rate is lower than recent years but not a career low and not out of line with a majority of his career. BABIP is higher than it was in 2 of the previous 3 years, xERA, xFIP also are in line with several other years in his career.

 

I think it was TT that said that if this was $10m of a $40m budget then yes its not a great move, but if its $10m of a $90m budget then I think its a smart move considering the number of holes the Cubs have to fill.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

The best thing anyone can say about him is that he only costs money.

I suppose you missed the part when he was worth more WAR last season than ANY INDIVIDUAL CUB LAST YEAR.

Let's set aside the issue of WAR (bWAR vs fWAR), for the time being, he hasn't had a season like that in 10 years. Expecting a 35 year old to repeat those results is not a bet most would be willing to make. I'm not sure what people are thinking here. I suppose in the universe where the Cubs need warm bodies to make starts, he's a guy.

What you're saying is YOU can't say anything good about him. Everyone else can say (obvious) good things about him.

[The_Achiever]

I'm excited for the spat of IT'S MILEY gifs to be used in gamethreads next year.

[Rob]

I suppose you missed the part when he was worth more WAR last season than ANY INDIVIDUAL CUB LAST YEAR.

Let's set aside the issue of WAR (bWAR vs fWAR), for the time being, he hasn't had a season like that in 10 years. Expecting a 35 year old to repeat those results is not a bet most would be willing to make. I'm not sure what people are thinking here. I suppose in the universe where the Cubs need warm bodies to make starts, he's a guy.

 

Just looking at fWAR because I think its better for pitching (correct me if I'm wrong), but Miley has averaged 1.9 fWAR over his last 10 seasons. It's not the 2.9 WAR he had last year and you are right to be a little concerned about age regression but I'm not sure you are doing better in FA if you are looking at a relatively affordable starter with no long-term obligation. But you are saying to set aside WAR. I don't see anything in his numbers that jumps out as an extreme outlier last year. K/9 is actually lower than career average. His walk rate is lower than recent years but not a career low and not out of line with a majority of his career. BABIP is higher than it was in 2 of the previous 3 years, xERA, xFIP also are in line with several other years in his career.

 

I think it was TT that said that if this was $10m of a $40m budget then yes its not a great move, but if its $10m of a $90m budget then I think its a smart move considering the number of holes the Cubs have to fill.

 

My sabermetric knowledge is a bit dusty at this point (who has time for fun things anymore?), but defense-independent pitching statistics [as a bucket, not the old offshoots of DIPS in particular] were usually more predicative in value, with less variance year-to-year. So fWAR, thanks to its reliance on FIP, has long been my go-to when I'm trying to evaluate what a player's talent level really is.

 

There is a vanishingly small number of pitchers who have shown abilities to outperform their components over large sample sizes. Matt Cain is a classic example. Kyle Hendricks is sometimes thought of as one. Prime Jake Arrieta was one as well. Last I checked in, there was still a lot of work going on in figuring out how those guys beat their peripherals so well, but it was thought to have a great deal with the ability to induce weak contact. But that seems to be a skill that may degrade, possibly quite quickly. One season Matt Cain just lost it. Same for Jake. Neither really got it back. But I digress. The long and short of it is that there are startlingly few such pitchers, and figuring out whether a particular pitcher currently outperforming their peripherals is doing so as a talent or by luck is a crapshoot. And it doesn't appear Wade Miley is such a pitcher at any rate.

 

So yes, I believe you were correct in using fWAR.

[toonsterwu]

I remember when Wade Miley was a hot young name coming off his early run in Arizona, hence why Boston made the splash for him (the package, in hindsight, looks bad, but de la Rosa and Webster were somewhat intriguing then). He's stalled since then, but as an innings eating end of the rotation option, it's fine.