Week 9 - Bears (3-5) @ Steelers (4-3) on MNF

[UMFan83]

It feels weird to let Pace and Nagy trade up to draft a QB in the first round, develop him for a year, then fire them after a year in which that QB developed well.

 

 

Anthony Lynn was an offensive HC as well, so likely had a big hand in Herbert's success last year. I guess maybe the difference is that Herbert was lights out immediately while Fields has struggled but you are starting to see some legitimate development.

[WrigleyField 22]

Random but what’s the midseason take on James Daniels at RG? Is he getting to FA?

 

I think I talked about this before, but this is definitely the most interesting decision the Bears have this offseason. The Bears need to build a strong OL. Borom has shown enough in just 2 starts that he's got a spot for the near future. Jenkins has the draft status and pedigree that he's got a spot in the near future. Whitehair has the contract that says he's going to be here. That leaves Mustipher and Daniels as the only guys who can logically be replaced. Mustipher is bad. You can replace him with a better C, but the issue here is that you can't really draft a C to fill this spot. Daniels was supposed to be the C of the future, but couldn't handle certain things at the position. Mustipher is also young, so I don't think young C is going to be the answer. You can move Whitehair back to C and go out and get another guard, but the only thing that really moves the needle is a stud. Whitehair is what he is. Solid, not a stud. You can hold out hope that Jenkins and/or Borom becomes a stud. But what complicates things is Daniels is a FA.

 

Daniels isn't quite what he is, though he's probably never going to be a stud, pro bowl level OG. But he's also going to be literally the youngest FA in the league this offseason. And due to his age, solid performance the last 2 years when healthy, and still having a bit of upside; it makes this an either/or proposition. Either you sign Daniels OR you get a true stud on the OL. Probably can't afford both, unless you go really cheap at WR and get no CB help (remember no draft picks either).

 

Given that a couple studs in Cleveland just got taken off the market, combined with the fact that it's very few studs in general out there, I think you have to re-sign Daniels. The whole "bird in the hand". They'll probably have to develop a stud OL between the rookie OTs and any future draft picks on the interior, but that's probably the way to go.

A few things:

 

I agree the Daniels bit will be interesting. Especially now with the 2 CLE guys off the market. But yea, good chance Daniels is paid for potential not past production (this isn't the worst thing)

 

Whitehair's deal shouldn't prevent them from moving on. Yes he has a big dead cap hit, but he also has unguaranteed salaries each year at 8M+. That's the true cost to retain him. The dead cap stuff is a minor timing issue.

 

I think they can afford a big splash at OL, WR, and relatively big investment in CB or NB. Might cause a tough decision at DE with Nichols/Hicks, but I don't think they can afford to ignore WR. Yes they'll have to backload some, but they have okay flexibility to do so. They're not in "cap hell" as some like to say.

 

They're effective cap space is ~30M. I think they could easily add another 10M and aggressively up to 20M to that number with a couple cuts, a restructure or two, and a Roquan extension. Whether that's through current restructures or back loads on new deals, let's say they can effectively add 50M in new annual average salary above minimum salaries.

 

WR: 20M (either a true number 1 or spread out b/t 2)

IOL: 20M (2 guys at ~10M AAV each, incl resign/replace Daniels and a C)

CB: 5-7M for a starter quality nickel or lower end outside guy

DE: 5M for a decent rotation piece to replace Nichols.

 

Now we get to Whitehair. Again, leave the dead cap issue aside. Its another 8M AAV. Split that between a low-end G FA and another DE at 4M each (to replace/retain Hicks).

 

You have 5 draft slots and then about a dozen minimum salary type slots for various backup roles. Thats all on just an AAV basis, you can go a little more agressive with backloading. I mean maybe 3-5 of those dozen slots of you upgrade from minimum to a 2-3M type guys, but there should be zero concern if the bottom 10 of your roster is those minimum salary types and you can use the veteran salary benefit rule to keep cost down.

 

Let's just say a Rd2 corner and Rd3 WR

 

Fields-Foles

Montgomery-Herbert

Mooney- FA$20 - Rd 3

Kmet

Jenkins-Borom-Daniels-FA$10-FA$4

 

Mack-Quinn-Gipson-Attaouchu-Roquan(extended)-Johnson

Blackson-Edwards-Goldman-Tonga-FA$5-FA$4

Johnson-FA$7-Rd2-Shelly-Vildor

Jackson

 

Thats your basic core outside of minimum and day 3 guys. And they would easily still project to have AT LEAST 30M (upwards to 50M) of effective space to spend in 2023 with Montgomery the only significant FA (assuming you can extend Roquan). And I haven't even cut from expensive guys like Quinn by that point, who could free up more space.

[raw]

I haven't really had a chance to look at the offseason yet (was going to do so over the next couple weeks), but off the top, I think you probably still have to cut Quinn. Foles and Trevathan are obvious cuts. I'd probably bring back Nichols, even though he's done next to nothing this year, and probably cut Mario Edwards. While half of them are questionable, Edwards has just had too many dumb penalties and is just generally an a-hole.

[WrigleyField 22]

I haven't really had a chance to look at the offseason yet (was going to do so over the next couple weeks), but off the top, I think you probably still have to cut Quinn. Foles and Trevathan are obvious cuts. I'd probably bring back Nichols, even though he's done next to nothing this year, and probably cut Mario Edwards. While half of them are questionable, Edwards has just had too many dumb penalties and is just generally an a-hole.

There's not a ton of savings for any of those guys except Quinn. But by all means if you feel like they're replaceable with a sub 3M type FA, sure.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It feels weird to let Pace and Nagy trade up to draft a QB in the first round, develop him for a year, then fire them after a year in which that QB developed well.

 

 

Anthony Lynn was an offensive HC as well, so likely had a big hand in Herbert's success last year. I guess maybe the difference is that Herbert was lights out immediately while Fields has struggled but you are starting to see some legitimate development.

 

There's a big difference between "should the Bears be willing to do it" and "does it seem like something the Bears will do"

[UMFan83]

Was just thinking that the Bears kind of get screwed here. Not only do the Bears have one less day off on their bye week, but their opponent, who already had their bye 2 weeks ago, gets an almost bye week because they are playing tonight. So the Bears only get 2 more days of rest than the Ravens.

 

Not a big deal and the season is a wash but in addition to having to play playoff teams in 11 of the first 13 games, the advantage of their bye week is almost completely negated

[Soul]

I hope we get these Ravens and not the 6-2 Ravens.

[raw]

Was just thinking that the Bears kind of get screwed here. Not only do the Bears have one less day off on their bye week, but their opponent, who already had their bye 2 weeks ago, gets an almost bye week because they are playing tonight. So the Bears only get 2 more days of rest than the Ravens.

 

Not a big deal and the season is a wash but in addition to having to play playoff teams in 11 of the first 13 games, the advantage of their bye week is almost completely negated

 

I was just looking at this last night. This may be the toughest schedule anyone has played in the history of football. All the playoff teams. The back and forth home-away schedule. The MNF game on the road before a bye. Playing a team not coming off a bye but only get 2 more days rest than them. Playing a day game the following Thursday after coming off a bye (same thing the Ravens just did and looked horrible the 2nd game). Throw in the fact that the Bears lead the league in the new taunting penalties despite probably having the fewest diva players in the league + the fewest things to celebrate.....and it makes you start to believe in conspiracy theories. #OnlyMyTeams

[UMFan83]

Was just thinking that the Bears kind of get screwed here. Not only do the Bears have one less day off on their bye week, but their opponent, who already had their bye 2 weeks ago, gets an almost bye week because they are playing tonight. So the Bears only get 2 more days of rest than the Ravens.

 

Not a big deal and the season is a wash but in addition to having to play playoff teams in 11 of the first 13 games, the advantage of their bye week is almost completely negated

 

I was just looking at this last night. This may be the toughest schedule anyone has played in the history of football. All the playoff teams. The back and forth home-away schedule. The MNF game on the road before a bye. Playing a team not coming off a bye but only get 2 more days rest than them. Playing a day game the following Thursday after coming off a bye (same thing the Ravens just did and looked horrible the 2nd game). Throw in the fact that the Bears lead the league in the new taunting penalties despite probably having the fewest diva players in the league + the fewest things to celebrate.....and it makes you start to believe in conspiracy theories. #OnlyMyTeams

 

Plus in the NFC so they have 9 road games this year. Yeah its incredibly difficult and seems almost punitive. But hey Fields develops by facing some tough competition, Bears record isn't good enough to keep Nagy, not a bad outcome.

[Soul]

Was just thinking that the Bears kind of get screwed here. Not only do the Bears have one less day off on their bye week, but their opponent, who already had their bye 2 weeks ago, gets an almost bye week because they are playing tonight. So the Bears only get 2 more days of rest than the Ravens.

 

Not a big deal and the season is a wash but in addition to having to play playoff teams in 11 of the first 13 games, the advantage of their bye week is almost completely negated

 

I was just looking at this last night. This may be the toughest schedule anyone has played in the history of football. All the playoff teams. The back and forth home-away schedule. The MNF game on the road before a bye. Playing a team not coming off a bye but only get 2 more days rest than them. Playing a day game the following Thursday after coming off a bye (same thing the Ravens just did and looked horrible the 2nd game). Throw in the fact that the Bears lead the league in the new taunting penalties despite probably having the fewest diva players in the league + the fewest things to celebrate.....and it makes you start to believe in conspiracy theories. #OnlyMyTeams

 

Plus in the NFC so they have 9 road games this year. Yeah its incredibly difficult and seems almost punitive. But hey Fields develops by facing some tough competition, Bears record isn't good enough to keep Nagy, not a bad outcome.

 

This is hopefully just the doom boner Bear fan in me, but Fields develops nicely, Bears go 6-10, front office reflects on the schedule and the upside of Fields, attaches the Fields progress to Nagy and forgives him the record...and brings him back.

 

I feel like this is possible.

[WrigleyField 22]

Well they definitely won't go 6-10

[UMFan83]

 

Love the kids confidence. Hope he backs it up...I suspect he will.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Love the kids confidence. Hope he backs it up...I suspect he will.

[UMFan83]

You don’t say!

 

[WrigleyField 22]

Standing by the taunting call.

 

I went and checked out a HS football playoff game yesterday and saw at least two NFL-style taunting calls. No flags. The horror.

[d_money]

Standing by the taunting call.

 

I went and checked out a HS football playoff game yesterday and saw at least two NFL-style taunting calls. No flags. The horror.

Who did you see play?

[WrigleyField 22]

Standing by the taunting call.

 

I went and checked out a HS football playoff game yesterday and saw at least two NFL-style taunting calls. No flags. The horror.

Who did you see play?

Naz Fenwick

[UMFan83]

More

 

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

More

 

Yeah, that play is the one that pisses me off more. In real time with the Marsh play, I was like "alright man, get off the field already" thinking they could throw a flag (even though its lame and at that time of the game especially, you don't make that big of a game changing call when it is iffy at best). But the low block that wasn't even a block and was still inside the TE box was so annoying. This is at least twice now Fields has had a BS call take away a TD pass. And of course it was made even worse when they ignored the late hits on the next play or two. I was rewatching the game a few days ago and with 2:11 remaining in the first half, the bears ran a run play to the right where Peters pulled across to the right side and Fitzpatrick absolutely took his legs out (outside the TE box). Peters immediately jumped up and yelled at the ref about it. It was super obvious to me in the moment, but even the announcers talked about it for a while that Fitzpatrick should have been flagged for the low block taking out Peters' legs outside the TE box. Of course it was missed on the Steelers (right in front of a ref) but flagged on the Bears when it shouldn't have been a penalty for two reasons.

 

In these games, I really just want to see Fields do well and don't really care if the Bears win. I even sort of hope he does well while they lose so that we don't hold on to Nagy... but late in that game I really wanted them to win because the steelers absolutely didn't deserve to.

[d_money]

Standing by the taunting call.

 

I went and checked out a HS football playoff game yesterday and saw at least two NFL-style taunting calls. No flags. The horror.

Who did you see play?

Naz Fenwick

I was there too. Good game but damn it was cold. Fenwick QB was pretty good.

[WrigleyField 22]

Who did you see play?

Naz Fenwick

I was there too. Good game but damn it was cold. Fenwick QB was pretty good.

They were really strong top to bottom. I think the QB is going to Ball State. And the Center Purdue.

 

Naz QB I guess is just a Freshman. Has some limitations, but they went on a run when they switched to him mid-season. As always they have some D1 talent too, but just wasn't as strong depth wise as they have been in some years past. Fenwick looked bigger and just as athletic.

[raw]

I pulled up the Vikings/Chargers on ESPN and on the side it has the division standings for the 2 teams playing. And it's pretty crazy.

 

GB is 7-2 with a +19 point differential

Minnesota is 3-5 at +3

Bears are 3-6 at -74.

 

Chargers are 5-3 with a -2

Raiders are 5-3 at +7

KC is 5-4 at -6

Denver is in last place with a +34

 

Looking at the rest of the league

 

3-6 Eagles are +9

Saints are +44 and just a game up over the -85 Falcons

Seattle is 3-5 at +12

 

Granted a lot of this is influenced by today's scores, but it's wild how much variance there is this year.

[UMFan83]

With today’s results, the Bears now sit at 15th in the NFC with tiebreakers. Not that playoffs are that likely but bad day for that with wins by the Panthers, Vikings, Eagles and WFT

[WrigleyField 22]

With today’s results, the Bears now sit at 15th in the NFC with tiebreakers. Not that playoffs are that likely but bad day for that with wins by the Panthers, Vikings, Eagles and WFT

Yea, the 7th WC is gonna be pretty wide open, but with 2 of their 3 wins against the AFC, I'm gonna guess they'll be down thr possible tie breaker scenarios.

 

ESPN playoff predictor engine should be up and running in a few weeks.

[WrigleyField 22]

Here's the fake optimism playoff push logic.