Week 7: Bears at Buccaneers

[BigSlick]

Trying to think of reasonable goals for this game. On the one hand I don't want to sell them short, of course its a pro game and anyone can win, but looking at the micro level:

 

- 4 consistent good quarters from Justin Fields. The Buc's actually have a pretty bad passing defense and so far Fields has had flashes of excellence alongside drives that go nowhere. If he could put together 4 total quarters where he's effective and dangerous that's a great sign.

 

- Keeping it close. Keep it competitive. Would like to see the Defense stay stout the whole game. Tall order, and I wont be overly disappointed if they start falling apart near the end if the offense sputters too much

 

- No more idiotic coaching mistakes. No more timeouts called right before throwing a challenge flag (on a play that honestly wasn't super valuable to challenge in the first place). More concern for the clock, better handling of time outs. Some sort of effective half time adjustments, rather than having terrible 3rd quarters. Maybe this is asking too much.

[jumbo]

 

CB Jaylon Johnson

 

The Bears are a team that tends to leave cornerbacks on sides, with Johnson playing right cornerback (the offense's left side). The Bears rank fourth in DVOA on passes to the left side, compared to 26th on passes to the middle and 22nd on passes to the right. Sports Info Solutions has charted Johnson as allowing just a 36% completion rate in coverage and only 6.5 yards per target. The Bears certainly know what kind of breakout season Johnson is having and hope the 2020 second-round pick can continue to keep it up throughout the rest of the season.

 

Davante Adams kind of beat him pretty solidly on Sunday. Not a ton of catches, but a couple big plays. But IIRC, they had to move him to the slot, in a position that Johnson isn't used to playing, in order to have success. Johnson shut him down on the outside whenever Adams was lined up there.

 

Slot corner is a major need for this team. Vildor might be better in the slot than the boundary, but Shelley & the rest are pretty underwhelming. Let's see what their other major needs are now/this offseason:

 

LT Jenkins insurance

RT Starter or Borom insurance

RG if Daniels not resigned

C upgrade on Mustipher (maybe not major)

WR to replace ARob

WR to fill out balance of roster after Mooney

TE to replace Graham (resign James maybe)

 

SS if Gipson not resigned

 

It feels like there is still so much work to do to this roster, and next draft will be 2, 3, 5, 5, 6 (I don't think we'll be getting any comp picks based on all the needs and not much in the way of attractive FA leaving)

Cap space for all the above is going to be tight, even with a cost controlled rookie contract QB and LT (and maybe RT)

[BigSlick]

How the hell do you end up with an offensive line so ramshackle and also have no picks and also have no cap space

 

Bears.

[WrigleyField 22]

How the hell do you end up with an offensive line so ramshackle and also have no picks and also have no cap space

 

Bears.

They have got some space and some picks. No not overwhelming of either, but it's fine.

 

Everything really rests on Fields anyways. If he's great, most of the Bears issues start to take care of itself. If he flops nothing matters.

[jersey cubs fan]

[raw]

 

 

Davante Adams kind of beat him pretty solidly on Sunday. Not a ton of catches, but a couple big plays. But IIRC, they had to move him to the slot, in a position that Johnson isn't used to playing, in order to have success. Johnson shut him down on the outside whenever Adams was lined up there.

 

Slot corner is a major need for this team. Vildor might be better in the slot than the boundary, but Shelley & the rest are pretty underwhelming. Let's see what their other major needs are now/this offseason:

 

LT Jenkins insurance

RT Starter or Borom insurance

RG if Daniels not resigned

C upgrade on Mustipher (maybe not major)

WR to replace ARob

WR to fill out balance of roster after Mooney

TE to replace Graham (resign James maybe)

 

SS if Gipson not resigned

 

It feels like there is still so much work to do to this roster, and next draft will be 2, 3, 5, 5, 6 (I don't think we'll be getting any comp picks based on all the needs and not much in the way of attractive FA leaving)

Cap space for all the above is going to be tight, even with a cost controlled rookie contract QB and LT (and maybe RT)

 

Not really worried about TE and SS. Graham is a non-factor now, no need to really replace him. I'm fine with re-signing James and throwing Horstead out there more. Maybe add another body late in the draft or a cheap vet FA if you need a 4th, but I don't think they do. SS, they need to get rid of Gipson. Bush is on IR, but DHC should get a long look as a starter this week with Gipson out. If he shows well, I wouldn't give Gipson the job back. But the Bears have been just fine on defense with replacement level SS play. And that's with Jackson no longer being an elite player (though he is still really good in coverage, which is overshadowed by his abysmal tackling). Maybe one of those 5ths like Amos was. Another cheap vet. DHC and Bush can be re-signed as usual for cheap.

 

On OL, I feel like 1 really good player could go a long way. I love Daniels, and while he'll be a rare 24-year old FA, I don't think he'll ever be "really good". Whitehair won't ever be really good, just solid. You'd hope 1 of Jenkins or Borom is really good, and I'd give both a shot to show they aren't as soon as they are healthy. But Mustipher is bad. You can get away with Musty if you have a really good RG next to him. Or you get a really good C and bump Musty back to the bench. The problem is I don't think you can get "really good" and re-sign Daniels. And there's a lot of good guards in this FA class. You can get another Peters/Ifedi/Wilkinson at any point during the offseason. They'd be wise to use one of the 5 picks on the OL too just to keep the talent flowing.

 

Nickel is a huge need, but is typically filled cheaply. Lot of interesting CBs in this draft, including guys that can play the slot. You can get cheap production at nickel on Day 3 of the draft (like they did with Callahan), but maybe best guy available with that 3rd rounder and move Vildor to NCB if you have to. Sure they'll bring in vets as well.

 

WR will be interesting to me. The only guys under contract next year are Mooney and the practice squad guys (Newsome, Coulter, Adams, Webster). Robinson certainly won't be back and I'd wish they'd dangle him over the next 10 days to a contender. But I think the Bears should focus on WRs that get separation, which fits Fields' strengths. They went for speed this year with Goodwin, Byrd, and the never used Perriman, but they are just fast. They need fast guys that can actually run routes and separate from defenders. I'd look at guys like Cooks, Will Fuller, maybe Gallup (probably can't afford Courtland Sutton but he'd be ideal). Then they probably have to spend that 2nd on a WR. After that, gotta hope a PS guy (or 2) steps up.

[WrigleyField 22]

Re: the line, I'm thinking replace Mustipher with a FA. You can give Mustipher the EFRA tender as he's still a cheap backup. Resign Daniels, as long as it's not outrageous. Cut Whitehair. Resign Bars with a original round tender and bring in cheap vet swing guy to compete against him for the starting role and the swing interior role. The Whitehair move doesn't gain you 2022 cap, but is still a long term savings to the tune of 8M/year.

 

The tackles are harder. Ideally they get to see some action this year from both Jenkins and Borom to pencil them in as 22 starters with just a solid swing guy to back them up. If they aren't healthy and still kind of a mystery it feels like you kind of have to go big at one of the tackle spots and let those two compete for the other spot, with the loser as a swing tackle. In which case maybe its not a FA C, or at least not too pricey of one, but still bring in a cheap vet option to create completion with Mustipher.

 

Only 6 picks, don't think they can force any particular position, but obviously wouldn't hurt to add another day 3 body at OL if one is available.

 

So ideal circumstance is:

Borom-Bars - FA - Daniels - Jenkins

With cheap-ish vet swing G, vet swing T, Mustipher, and maybe a draft pick or a guy like Simmons as your backups.

 

Agreed on TE. Won't be elite, but serviceable and relatively affordable at least. One big FA splash is needed at WR. One big FA splash at nickle or CB. Bilal will probably be pricey, but worth retaining. Then rounding out stuff like ILB, SS, and some backup/rotation roles pretty cheaply. Extend Smith. Draft as always for me is BPA, with only the second rounder with any likelihood to add an immediate contributor. Supposed to be a good CB class which would certainly work. But I wouldn't turn down a WR, OL, S, LB, or DL either.

[raw]

Re: the line, I'm thinking replace Mustipher with a FA. You can give Mustipher the EFRA tender as he's still a cheap backup. Resign Daniels, as long as it's not outrageous. Cut Whitehair. Resign Bars with a original round tender and bring in cheap vet swing guy to compete against him for the starting role and the swing interior role. The Whitehair move doesn't gain you 2022 cap, but is still a long term savings to the tune of 8M/year.

 

The tackles are harder. Ideally they get to see some action this year from both Jenkins and Borom to pencil them in as 22 starters with just a solid swing guy to back them up. If they aren't healthy and still kind of a mystery it feels like you kind of have to go big at one of the tackle spots and let those two compete for the other spot, with the loser as a swing tackle. In which case maybe its not a FA C, or at least not too pricey of one, but still bring in a cheap vet option to create completion with Mustipher.

 

Only 6 picks, don't think they can force any particular position, but obviously wouldn't hurt to add another day 3 body at OL if one is available.

 

So ideal circumstance is:

Borom-Bars - FA - Daniels - Jenkins

With cheap-ish vet swing G, vet swing T, Mustipher, and maybe a draft pick or a guy like Simmons as your backups.

 

Agreed on TE. Won't be elite, but serviceable and relatively affordable at least. One big FA splash is needed at WR. One big FA splash at nickle or CB. Bilal will probably be pricey, but worth retaining. Then rounding out stuff like ILB, SS, and some backup/rotation roles pretty cheaply. Extend Smith. Draft as always for me is BPA, with only the second rounder with any likelihood to add an immediate contributor. Supposed to be a good CB class which would certainly work. But I wouldn't turn down a WR, OL, S, LB, or DL either.

 

It's really hard to say what they will do with some guys because it should be a new GM. But if Pace manages to survive, I'd bet on the OL being status quo on the interior. He'll re-sign Daniels and probably won't pencil Mustipher in on the bench. He spent 5 years ignoring the line, can't see him doubling up on big moves there. Plus it's hard to say what a new coach would envision on the OL. The Bears have kind of built a power blocking group but maybe the next coach wants a quick, athletic OL.

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea it certainly is way too early for some of these discussion, without knowing Pace/Nagy's fate.

 

While I think it's possible the IOL is status quo, I feel like that will be a lot of combined money for Daniels and Whitehair without elite production. Maybe Daniels walks because his youth gets him a crazy deal. They won't have to decide on Whitehair right away.

[BigSlick]

I probably don't feel as passionately about replacing Nagy as most Bears fans - I see him as a flawed but relatively effective coach, and if he genuinely keeps the playcalling with Lazor I'm ok with him sticking around. (Assuming the team doesn't experience an utter collapse and embarrassment through the end of the season, which is possible!)

 

I also hate the idea of switching coaches on Fields this early on in his development.

 

I'm 100% on board with replacing Pace though, but unfortunately I think he's a package deal with Nagy, can't throw him out without the other.

[WrigleyField 22]

I probably don't feel as passionately about replacing Nagy as most Bears fans - I see him as a flawed but relatively effective coach, and if he genuinely keeps the playcalling with Lazor I'm ok with him sticking around. (Assuming the team doesn't experience an utter collapse and embarrassment through the end of the season, which is possible!)

 

I also hate the idea of switching coaches on Fields this early on in his development.

 

I'm 100% on board with replacing Pace though, but unfortunately I think he's a package deal with Nagy, can't throw him out without the other.

I mean, even under the circumstance where Nagy gives up the playcalling, am I really supposed to buy in that Lazor is going to be the guy for the offense? I'm really skeptical Nagy can recruit a top offensive mind to run the ship because who's gonna really buy in that it's theirs to control?

 

So you either need to bring in someone capable of fixing the offense themselves, or it's a D/ST coach and they can at least offer control of the offense to a strong OC candidate.

[raw]

I probably don't feel as passionately about replacing Nagy as most Bears fans - I see him as a flawed but relatively effective coach, and if he genuinely keeps the playcalling with Lazor I'm ok with him sticking around. (Assuming the team doesn't experience an utter collapse and embarrassment through the end of the season, which is possible!)

 

I also hate the idea of switching coaches on Fields this early on in his development.

 

I'm 100% on board with replacing Pace though, but unfortunately I think he's a package deal with Nagy, can't throw him out without the other.

I mean, even under the circumstance where Nagy gives up the playcalling, am I really supposed to buy in that Lazor is going to be the guy for the offense? I'm really skeptical Nagy can recruit a top offensive mind to run the ship because who's gonna really buy in that it's theirs to control?

 

So you either need to bring in someone capable of fixing the offense themselves, or it's a D/ST coach and they can at least offer control of the offense to a strong OC candidate.

 

Not wanting to switch coaches on a young QB is the only reason to keep Nagy, but not a good enough one. Fields hasn't exactly looked like he's mastered this offense, and it hasn't been geared to his strengths. And even with Nagy not calling plays, this is still one of the 3 worst offensive teams in the league. That's just not acceptable.

 

Probably have to go with an offensive guy as the next coach. The thing about a defensive coach w/ a strong OC is that when those strong OCs have a good showing, other teams want them as a head coach. So, you essentially have to find a strong OC with strong assistants coming along with him, who are capable of taking over if the OC gets a HC job. The best guy for that was Brandon Staley, who came from the Fangio defense and had ties to the McVay offense.

[WrigleyField 22]

I probably don't feel as passionately about replacing Nagy as most Bears fans - I see him as a flawed but relatively effective coach, and if he genuinely keeps the playcalling with Lazor I'm ok with him sticking around. (Assuming the team doesn't experience an utter collapse and embarrassment through the end of the season, which is possible!)

 

I also hate the idea of switching coaches on Fields this early on in his development.

 

I'm 100% on board with replacing Pace though, but unfortunately I think he's a package deal with Nagy, can't throw him out without the other.

I mean, even under the circumstance where Nagy gives up the playcalling, am I really supposed to buy in that Lazor is going to be the guy for the offense? I'm really skeptical Nagy can recruit a top offensive mind to run the ship because who's gonna really buy in that it's theirs to control?

 

So you either need to bring in someone capable of fixing the offense themselves, or it's a D/ST coach and they can at least offer control of the offense to a strong OC candidate.

 

Not wanting to switch coaches on a young QB is the only reason to keep Nagy, but not a good enough one. Fields hasn't exactly looked like he's mastered this offense, and it hasn't been geared to his strengths. And even with Nagy not calling plays, this is still one of the 3 worst offensive teams in the league. That's just not acceptable.

 

Probably have to go with an offensive guy as the next coach. The thing about a defensive coach w/ a strong OC is that when those strong OCs have a good showing, other teams want them as a head coach. So, you essentially have to find a strong OC with strong assistants coming along with him, who are capable of taking over if the OC gets a HC job. The best guy for that was Brandon Staley, who came from the Fangio defense and had ties to the McVay offense.

I'm not as worried about the O poaching. If it happens it likely means Fields has been successfully developed. And then we are talking about a situation where you're just trying to continue to do what works ans relying on Fields immense natural talent lifting whoever the OC is, likely next man up scenario. So yea, you would want a guy who has a clear plan to bring in a strong staff top to bottom.

 

The other route being the college route which has obviously gotten more popular.

[UMFan83]

 

Lol this should be a fun one

[WrigleyField 22]

So Bars at RT I assume?

 

Borom, how's that ankle doing for next week?

[UMFan83]

Fields needs to figure out how to hang onto the ball since he’s going to be sacked 7-8 times every game.

 

This game has started exactly as bad as I expected

[UMFan83]

3 and out, strip sack, terrible special teams coverage, 25 yard pass interference, Bucs TD. What a splendid start

[Tim]

Fields needs to figure out how to hang onto the ball since he’s going to be sacked 7-8 times every game.

 

This game has started exactly as bad as I expected

That sack was not on him. He barely got to his drop before he was sacked

[UMFan83]

Fields needs to figure out how to hang onto the ball since he’s going to be sacked 7-8 times every game.

 

This game has started exactly as bad as I expected

That sack was not on him. He barely got to his drop before he was sacked

 

I didn’t say it was his fault, he just seems to fumble so easily

[Rex Buckingham]

DPI should have been illegal contact or defensive holding at best... 5 yards rather than 25... Evans moved early on the 2nd play... but this is going to be a bloodbath.

[Soul]

Fields needs to figure out how to hang onto the ball since he’s going to be sacked 7-8 times every game.

 

This game has started exactly as bad as I expected

That sack was not on him. He barely got to his drop before he was sacked

 

I didn’t say it was his fault, he just seems to fumble so easily

Just run the damn ball!

[Soul]

They will blitz all game.

[WrigleyField 22]

That sack was not on him. He barely got to his drop before he was sacked

 

I didn’t say it was his fault, he just seems to fumble so easily

Just run the damn ball!

Nope, this is the game to pass.

[Soul]

 

I didn’t say it was his fault, he just seems to fumble so easily

Just run the damn ball!

Nope, this is the game to pass.

Oh yeah working out great!

[BigSlick]

Oh no.