2021 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice.

 

Question: How does the 180-player limit work?

1. Does it include guys who are injured?

2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games?

 

In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count?

 

In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

 

I don’t know all the answers to this but I do know the 180 limit only counts guys on team’s rosters (even if they don’t get into box score games), so the 60-day IL is a way to stash a guy (but not the 7-day IL).

 

Yeah I saw something about how this might also be part of why the Angels and Dodgers went as heavy on pitching as they did. I don't know the contours of the rules, but loading up on pitchers made it easier to skirt them.

 

Cleveland had something like 19/21 pitchers too.

 

Especially with how spotty pitchers health is coming off 2020, it’s a nice idea to load up on arms even if there aren’t any roster construction advantages.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs get their first NDFA:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Interesting:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[craig]

Nice! That was quick.

[toonsterwu]

It's nice that we got one of the prep kids out of those three. Had hoped for more, but looks like a good talent to develop.

 

I'm not huge on Wicks, but he's better than Detmers as a prospect value. He's got a plus pitch to work with, whereas Detmers was more multiple above average pitches with plus command. I wonder if Detmers ends up having a more productive MLB career, but Wicks value should be higher than Detmers.

 

(also, could be wrong, but I am under the impression that Wicks velocity might be a tick above Detmers out of college. I don't recall at the moment, though).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1415719180775477249?s=21

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1415781443456798725?s=21

[craig]

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07/16/what-the-cubs-are-getting-in-jordan-wicks-and-their-2021-mlb-draft-class-its-a-match-made-in-heaven/

 

For pay, but nice article.

Out of those 10 [Day 3] picks, seven are from the high school level. Their 11th- and 12th-round picks, right-handed pitcher Gage Ziehl and outfielder Teo Banks, have already announced their intentions to honor their college commitments. But the Cubs are optimistic they’ll sign at least three of the remaining high schoolers, with 18th-rounder Dominic Hambley, a right-handed pitcher from Canada, expected to sign shortly.

 

First news I've heart on Hambley signing. So, Hambley and Rodriquez would be two of those "sign at least three". Olivo, Avitia, and Cunningham are the other three HS picks. I don't expect a change, but I'd not be stunned if Ziehl ended up changing his mind. But who knows.

[craig]

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07 ... in-heaven/

 

For pay, but nice article.

 

“He’s been a two-way player at IMG and hasn’t solely focused on pitching before,” Kantrovitz said. “We think he’s going to add good weight over the next couple years and add some power to both his fastball and breaking ball. Today, they’re quality pitches. Once he puts on some of the weight and adds even more power, we think the fastball could spike from the 91-93 range to 93-plus. And we think the curveball that has that late bite and tight spin might be an even better pitch down the road.”

 

One scout outside the organization who was familiar with Gray suggested the “[highlight=yellow]sky’s the limit[/highlight]” with him. The stuff is there with potential to improve and the hope is he’ll continue to grow and learn to command his arsenal better over time. Gray is younger than most of the pitchers the Cubs contemplated at this spot and in their view had the most upside. They [highlight=yellow]saw him as a second-round talent and believe they got tremendous value where they selected him[/highlight].

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Was not expecting Franklin to come under slot as a 4th rounder.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[We Got The Whole 9]

Was not expecting Franklin to come under slot as a 4th rounder.

 

How did we get Martin for a G?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Was not expecting Franklin to come under slot as a 4th rounder.

 

How did we get Martin for a G?

 

He's a senior with no leverage who was intentionally picked for that price point so the savings from his slot could go to overslots elsewhere (likely Triantos and Gray).

[craig]

That makes me want to root for Riley Martin even more! Chemistry major, conference all-academic, 2K/inning in D2, would be super fun if the $1K guy pitched his way into the major leagues! I love the human-interest stories.

[craig]

Did you guys ever get any scouting reports on Avitia or Olivo?

 

If Kanto senior-signed Day 2 to save a bunch for Day 3 guys; and if 13 signed for slot; and *if* 11 and 12 really don't want to sign, are guys 17-18-19-20 worth $100-200K overslot each? I admit I'm still not convinced that Ziehl might not reconsider.

[chopsx9]

Was not expecting Franklin to come under slot as a 4th rounder.

 

How did we get Martin for a G?

 

He's a senior with no leverage who was intentionally picked for that price point so the savings from his slot could go to overslots elsewhere (likely Triantos and Gray).

 

Fair enough but 1K seems like they're taunting him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Seems odd to take him in the 6th. With his profile I don't imagine he had many interested teams.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[craig]

Fascinated to see how much over Triantos will get.

 

Between overage and senior sub-slot deals, they'd made $719 with picks 5, 7, 9, and 10 left to be reported. Just guessing, I'd assume those picks will add >$350K more. If anything, I'd guess that composite might under-guess how much Katro might have under-slotted those four guys. Using that made-up hypothetical, that sums to ≥ $1076 in discretionary.

 

Of that, Gray got $273, so that could put them at ~$800.

I'll hypothesize maybe $300 for Triantos? Actual deal $1.5-$1.6 versus slot $1.28?

 

Then leave ≥$500K for 3rd-day guys?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fascinated to see how much over Triantos will get.

 

Between overage and senior sub-slot deals, they'd made $719 with picks 5, 7, 9, and 10 left to be reported. Just guessing, I'd assume those picks will add >$350K more. If anything, I'd guess that composite might under-guess how much Katro might have under-slotted those four guys. Using that made-up hypothetical, that sums to ≥ $1076 in discretionary.

 

Of that, Gray got $273, so that could put them at ~$800.

I'll hypothesize maybe $300 for Triantos? Actual deal $1.5-$1.6 versus slot $1.28?

 

Then leave ≥$500K for 3rd-day guys?

 

Chavers and Watkins (7 & 9) both got $125k too.

 

With 1, 3, 4 and 6-9 reported, they currently have a savings of $217,400 ($468,185 if you consider the 5% overage).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Seems odd to take him in the 6th. With his profile I don't imagine he had many interested teams.

 

They probably asked a bunch of seniors who would take $1k and he was the first who said yes (those types don't have exciting profiles). He was solely picked in the 6th round to get his slot savings.

[CoolHandLuke]

Is Christian Olivo the first played picked by the Cubs that wasn't alive for the '03 playoffs?

 

Like many of you, every year these birthdates make me feel really old.

[craig]

..Chavers and Watkins (7 & 9) both got $125k too.

 

With 1, 3, 4 and 6-9 reported, they currently have a savings of $217,400 ($468,185 if you consider the 5% overage).

 

Both of those subslotted more than I had projected. My current hypothetical guesses:

-Triantos $300 over,

- Spence $200 under, and Matt $130 under.

 

Using those hypotheticals, that would leave the Cubs with ~$573K for 3rd-day picks.

 

So obviously they aren't going to be able to offer Ziehl or Banks $1M or anything like that. But there is space to be signing four guys to $250K deals, or to offer Ziehl or Banks a $375 (sign one) while offering $250's to Hambley and Avitia or Olivo (sign two), for example?