5.27.21 The Cubs Somehow in 1st.

[CubinNY]

I'm impressed and frankly blown away.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Need Rizzo to up his power output when he comes back. So many injuries. Marisnick is sorely missed too.

[Cubswin11]

The division sucks, their roster wasn’t that bad going in to the year, it’s a high variance sport and roster and over ~45 games I don’t think this is a “blown away” spot to be in for us. They probably have like a 6-10 stretch coming, which may not even knock them too far down in the division.

[CoolHandLuke]

If only they had an ace...

[muntjack]

Would love to see Darvish and Castellanos both on this team.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Would love to see Darvish and Castellanos both on this team.

But then they wouldn't win the payroll efficiency awards and fans couldn't marvel at how scrappy they are.

[PackLandVA]

That June schedule looks pretty challenging.

[Backtobanks]

Weren’t Darvish and Castellanos already on this roster and everyone was miserable then too? Try something new

 

I don't think people were miserable with their performances.

[Backtobanks]

I don't think people were miserable with their performances.

 

In that case are we talking the combined 4-5 months it went great or the whole time?

 

Castellanos was great for the whole time he was a Cub. Darvish was recovering in 2018, our 2nd best starter in 2019, and amazing in 2020. So except for Darvish recovering in 2018, I would say they were great the whole time.

[muntjack]

I don't think anyone is arguing that Darvish initially struggled as a cub. I was simply saying that adding an ace and the NL OPS leader, two guys who were on our roster recently, would be nice. Seems very uncontroversial.

[17 Seconds]

I don't think people were miserable with their performances.

 

In that case are we talking the combined 4-5 months it went great or the whole time?

 

Castellanos was great for the whole time he was a Cub. Darvish was recovering in 2018, our 2nd best starter in 2019, and amazing in 2020. So except for Darvish recovering in 2018, I would say they were great the whole time.

 

"the whole time he was a cub"

[Rob]

I'm not broken-hearted over Castellanos. He mashed with us, but there was nothing to suggest he'd really turned a corner and was about to establish himself as a great ballplayer. His absolute best seasons looked no better than the stuff Chris Coghlan did for us a few years prior, and nobody was beating up the front office over not giving Coghlan a massive contract. There's a lot of valid criticisms of this front office, but passing on Castellanos isn't one of them. That contract looked bad from jump street.

 

That said, trading Darvish sucked. But it would have almost been better had we just committed to the fire sale. Now, we're stuck in an awkward no-mans land where we can't sell our valuable assets because we're in it. And we aren't good enough to justify using long-term assets to push all-in.

[Backtobanks]

 

In that case are we talking the combined 4-5 months it went great or the whole time?

 

Castellanos was great for the whole time he was a Cub. Darvish was recovering in 2018, our 2nd best starter in 2019, and amazing in 2020. So except for Darvish recovering in 2018, I would say they were great the whole time.

 

"the whole time he was a cub"

 

They acquired him for part of a season to add to the offense and he not only delivered, but was outstanding. That's what Tom was talking about.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Right now the difference between the Cubs’ and Cards’ run differential is the largest of the three NL divisions.

 

Things they need to get better at to win the #1 seed and two way more reasonable trade options than Marquez, Jose Ramirez, or whatever other craziness I've said:

 

- The rotation needs to throw harder. They’re dead last in baseball (89 MPH) by 5 MPH.

 

Brailyn Marquez is an obvious in house name but it’s also best to buy one or more. Mentioned Marquez (94) from the Rockies, but a much cheaper and realistic option might be Michael Fulmer (95) from the Tigers. He’s got a big injury history and has only made four starts this year, but wasn't horrendous and has a [good] 4 inning relief outing. Brooks has him averaging 96 in a 5 inning start. He's 28, won ROY as the #2 starter behind Verlander on a [non-playoff] contending Tigers' team, good numbers this year including 15 relief outings. Both he and Hinch went with being able to play any role on the staff rather than reliever being permanent. Hinch compared his makeup to Musgrove, who threw some relief innings for him with the Astros (Fulmer didn't pitch in 2019, returned in 2020 for the 60).

 

- Strike out less

 

Baez obviously, he's almost 7% over his career average this year, but Contreras and Happ are slacking a little too. If those former are are closer to their usual selves and Happ is closer to 2019-2020 Happ the team might get well under the league average (24%). Hoerner taking over 2B could go a long way too. Sergio Alcantara (17% K rate in 3100+ pro PAs) could end up an impactful in-house bench option. I don't believe this is an issue they have to address in a trade unless there's someone obvious pops up and probably not

 

- Generally be better on offense

 

They're only 9th and 10th in stuff like OBP, SLG, IsoSLG, wOBA, and 13th in wRC+. Trey Mancini, who has experience at 1B, LF, and RF might be an interesting trade option with the Orioles. He'd be a great bat off the bench in the playoffs and can help keep Rizzo, Heyward, and Pederson fresh. Maybe he outhits Heyward and JHey is a defensive sub in the playoffs. Garrett Cooper from the Marlins could make even more sense as a guy who hits LHP (.844 OPS) and can backup both RF and 1B

 

- Play better defense

 

They're actually bottom ten this year, but I don't think there's anyone to trade for. Hoerner was one of the best overall defenders as a rookie during pandemic ball so keeping him full time plus finding another backup SS (say Alcantara) might go a long way for this. Marisnick is usually a good backup CF so just keep him healthy, probably prefer a corner bat if trading for an OF unless it's Marte or another obvious starting CF upgrade

I really like Mancini. Hes definitely a guy I hope they can acquire. That said, if they did, they better send Heyward to the bench. Mancini's career splits basically mirror each other, its really impressive. We need more guys who don't suck against one side. Heyward's defense isn't even great enough anymore to offset the offense he's produced this season. And Mancini played a lot of RF in 2019. It wasn't pretty. But he still produced big time value overall. I think it'd be worth it to just live with what he gives you out there. Outside of 2020 Heyward has just been blah to blech offensively with us.

[muntjack]

I'm not broken-hearted over Castellanos. He mashed with us, but there was nothing to suggest he'd really turned a corner and was about to establish himself as a great ballplayer. His absolute best seasons looked no better than the stuff Chris Coghlan did for us a few years prior, and nobody was beating up the front office over not giving Coghlan a massive contract. There's a lot of valid criticisms of this front office, but passing on Castellanos isn't one of them. That contract looked bad from jump street.

 

That said, trading Darvish sucked. But it would have almost been better had we just committed to the fire sale. Now, we're stuck in an awkward no-mans land where we can't sell our valuable assets because we're in it. And we aren't good enough to justify using long-term assets to push all-in.

 

 

Well, I was disappointed when they didn't bring him back. He was 27, and had just come off his 2nd season better than any Chris Coghlan ever had. A 27 year old leaving a terrible team seems like a perfect candidate for improvement. At least to me.

[Rob]

I'm not broken-hearted over Castellanos. He mashed with us, but there was nothing to suggest he'd really turned a corner and was about to establish himself as a great ballplayer. His absolute best seasons looked no better than the stuff Chris Coghlan did for us a few years prior, and nobody was beating up the front office over not giving Coghlan a massive contract. There's a lot of valid criticisms of this front office, but passing on Castellanos isn't one of them. That contract looked bad from jump street.

 

That said, trading Darvish sucked. But it would have almost been better had we just committed to the fire sale. Now, we're stuck in an awkward no-mans land where we can't sell our valuable assets because we're in it. And we aren't good enough to justify using long-term assets to push all-in.

 

 

Well, I was disappointed when they didn't bring him back. He was 27, and had just come off his 2nd season better than any Chris Coghlan ever had. A 27 year old leaving a terrible team seems like a perfect candidate for improvement. At least to me.

 

Castellanos had his best season in 2018, where he put up 2.9 fWAR. He was great at the plate (129 wRC+), but a butcher in the field (-12.3 UZR). Coghlan's best year was 2015. He put up a 113 wRC+ that year and was a net positive in the field. So he tallied up 3.1 fWAR.

 

You can quibble on the numbers. Baseball-reference may like Castellanos more because they use different defensive figures. But at the time of signing his contract, he was known as a straight-up butcher in the field. It was almost like watching late-career Jermaine Dye out there. Or Gary Sheffield and his esoteric routes. Has he gotten better? Sure. Was it a guarantee? Absolutely not.