NSBB Mock NCAA Bracket 2021

[bukie]

Don't go home just yet Minnesota.

Or Penn State. Or Indiana. Or Northwestern.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

But bye Nebraska.

[bukie]

Maybe Kansas won't make the NCAA tournament after all:

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Just do the B1G tournament again next week. Invite Gonzaga and Baylor and another team to get to 16. Nebraska can still go home.

[bukie]

Just do the B1G tournament again next week. Invite Gonzaga and Baylor and another team to get to 16. Nebraska can still go home.

Nebraska played 13 games in 24 days. They've done enough.

[bukie]

A feat I thought impossible a month ago, but Illinois has almost caught Baylor in KenPom ratings.

[SouthSideRyan]

A feat I thought impossible a month ago, but Illinois has almost caught Baylor in KenPom ratings.

 

They passed them

[SouthSideRyan]

Georgetown and Oregon State can shrink the bubble by 2 tomorrow.

[bukie]

Cincinnati nips Wichita State 60-59 and could steal a bid with a win tomorrow vs Houston/Memphis.

[bukie]

Bottom of the S-Curve:

68. *Mount St. Mary's NEC

67. *Norfolk State MEAC

66. *Appalachian State SB

65. Hartford AE

64. *Drexel CAA

63. Nicholls State SLnd

62. Iona MAAC

61. *Oral Roberts Sum

60. Grand Canyon WAC

59. Prairie View A&M SWAC

58. *UNC Greensboro SC

57. Southern Utah Bsky

56. *Cleveland State Hor

55. *Morehead State OVC

54. *Liberty A-SUN

53. Colgate PAT

52. UC Santa Barbara BW

 

 

Middle of the S-Curve (After 12):

13 Oklahoma State B12

14 Texas B12

15 USC P12

16 Creighton BE

17 Virginia ACC

18 Oregon P12

19 Villanova BE

20 Florida State ACC

21 Connecticut BE

22 Colorado P12

 

 

We're now...halfway through the 6 seeds and backed our way through most of the 13s.

 

Next up...rank the rest of the field (including the additional auto bids that are not accounted for in Winthrop, Western KY, the A-10 winner and San Diego State)

[bukie]

Convince me at this point Illinois isn't at least the #3 overall, or even #2.

[Tim]

Convince me at this point Illinois isn't at least the #3 overall, or even #2.

Illinois is clearly playing better than Michigan at this point. Baylor has been somewhat shaky since coming back from covid.

 

I may be biased, tho

[bukie]

I also forgot about the MAC, so Buffalo/Ohio need to be fit into the S-Curve somewhere.

[bukie]

Norfolk State, Iona and Hartford officially won their auto bids.

 

Southern Utah lost in the semis, so now Eastern Washington is in the curve, I bumped them down 3 spots due to a worse profile (from a 14 to a 15 seed).

 

I'm just going to slide Ohio (MAC) in above Prairie View A&M (both 14 seeds at this point), unless I get a huge objection. So the 13-16 seeds are as follows now:

 

51 UC Santa Barbara BW

52 Colgate Pat

53 Liberty Asun

54 Morehead State OVC

55 Cleveland State Hor

56 UNC Greensboro SC

57 Ohio MAC

58 Prairie View A&M SWAC

59 Grand Canyon WAC

60 E. Washington Bsky

61 Oral Roberts Sum

62 Iona MAAC

63 Nicholls State SLnd

64 Drexel CAA

65 Hartford AE

66 Appalachian State SB

67 Norfolk State MEAC

68 Mount St. Mary's NEC

[bukie]

So the last step becomes:

 

Rank the remaining 39 teams on the at-large board plus auto board, including potential bid stealers Cincinnati, Georgetown and Oregon State.

 

Unless, you know, they lose before then, then whatever.

 

Here are the teams:

Cincinnati AAC

Georgetown BE

Oregon State P12

*Loyola-Chicago MVC

*Winthrop BSth

Boise State MWC

BYU WCC

Clemson ACC

Colorado State MWC

Drake MVC

Florida SEC

Georgia Tech ACC

Indiana B1G

Louisville ACC

LSU SEC

Maryland B1G

Michigan State B1G

Missouri SEC

North Carolina ACC

Oklahoma B12

Rutgers B1G

San Diego State MWC

Seton Hall BE

SMU AAC

St. Bonaventure A10

St. John's BE

St. Louis A10

Stanford P12

Syracuse ACC

Tennessee SEC

Texas Tech B12

UCLA P12

Utah State MWC

VCU A10

Virginia Tech ACC

Western Kentucky CUSA

Wichita State AAC

Wisconsin B1G

Xavier BE

[bukie]

Georgetown with a 20-0 run to end the first half, lead by 18 at the break.

[bukie]

Continuing in the second half, it's now a 36-5 run, and it looks like Georgetown is stealing a bid. Maybe Syracuse's.

[bukie]

Houston and Memphis tied at 62 in the American semis with 5 minutes to play. If Memphis wins, then it's either Memphis or Cincinnati getting the auto bid.

 

As for Houston, they have good metrics but couldn't win the 7th rated conference and might not win the tournament either. Hard to place them high in the bracket with that profile.

[bukie]

Georgetown finishes off Creighton 73-48 and gets the Big East auto bid at 13-12.

[bukie]

Texas beat Okoahoma State to win the Big 12, but it's hard to read too much into the result since Texas was well rested having gotten a bye to the finals.

[bukie]

Explain to me Syracuse's appeal, actually. They won 3 games outside the carrier dome, and their best win was by 2 points over North Carolina (to this point their only Quad 1 win). Combine that with a Quad 3 home loss to Pitt, they don't pass the Penn State test to me (if your profile is not better than Penn State, you should not be an NCAA at large team).

[bukie]

San Diego State wins the MWC, Utah State relies on at-large capability.

[bukie]

Ohio wins the MAC.

[bukie]

Here's my ranking of the remaining field (auto bids are starred):

23. BYU WCC

24. Clemson ACC

25. San Diego State MWC

26. LSU SEC

27. Tennessee SEC

28. North Carolina ACC

29. Wisconsin B1G

30. Missouri SEC

31. Rutgers B1G

32. VCU A10

33. *Loyola-Chicago MVC

34. St. Bonaventure A10

35. Drake MVC

36. Florida SEC

37. Maryland B1G

38. Louisville ACC

39. Michigan State B1G

40. Georgia Tech ACC

41. UCLA P12

42. *Winthrop BSth

43. Virginia Tech ACC

44. Texas Tech B12

45. Wichita State AAC

46. Oklahoma B12

47. Western Kentucky CUSA

48. Colorado State MWC

49. Syracuse ACC

SMU AAC

Xavier BE

St. John's BE

Boise State MWC

St. Louis A10

50. *Georgetown BE

Seton Hall BE

Utah State MWC

Indiana B1G

Oregon State P12

Stanford P12

Cincinnati AAC

 

[soccer10k]

- Committee will effectively seed on a straight S-curve this year with a few caveats: top 4 teams in a conference are in different regions, no rematches until the second round if possible, no conference 3x rematches until Elite Eight.

 

So this basically means one Big 10 team is going to get stuck in Gonzaga’s region as the 2 seed, right, even if they’re ranked 2-5 in the committee’s rankings?