2020 Offseason Thread

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Still intrigued by the multi-year interest of this board regarding Manuel Margot considering his numbers continue to look like crap to me.

[Backtobanks]

Still intrigued by the multi-year interest of this board regarding Manuel Margot considering his numbers continue to look like crap to me.

 

I was never interested in Margot until I realized that he's one of the few CF that is young, inexpensive, and available. Apparently. the Cubs don't want Happ in CF anymore and their options seem to be really limited. I would love to find any option for CF that would fit our budget and was actually good.

[Cubswin11]

Liked him as a buy low/lab guy for a final rotation spot

 

[Cubswin11]

Wow, I didn’t think he’d get close to that much or even a guaranteed deal necessarily. Even though I like some of the underlying things and the Giants are a smart team. Interesting.

 

[17 Seconds]

i love darvish but i feel like trading him is a good idea, even if we aren't blowing it up. he would get an awesome package, and i feel like his arm is inevitably going to blow up again at some point, and then we get nothing. this is a perfect opportunity to make that signing a long-term win.

[Bertz]

Thinking more on Darvish, he might be the one opportunity to get a singularly "Wow" kind of piece in return. Because of salary, I think there are reasonable arguments for each of Happ, Hendricks, and Contreras to have as much or more value than Darvish. But when giving up prospects teams would always rather give up two 5s than one 10. I wonder if because he's the only true superstar of the quartet, Yu is the only one who can command a Jo Adell for example.

[Cubswin11]

A FA I forgot was out there is Didi, if we allegedly are in on JBJ and he’s a ~$10 AAV guy I like Didi a lot more as a fit if the MLBTR 3/39 projection is in the ballpark for him. Can let Nico start in AAA/make him more a utility guy for the year and then Didi can be a Javy/KB replacement after the year until the next wave of infielders are ready when he’s a FA.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

The Rays added a veteran source of innings to their rotation Friday morning, announcing a one-year deal with right-hander Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly land a $3MM guarantee on the heels of a rough 2020 season with the Mets.

 

Looks like a smart move at that price.

[Post Count Padder]

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Had some good numbers in the minors as purely a reliever. Saw his fastball sits in the mid 90s. Not a bad cheap depth pickup, which I'm sure we'll see more of.

[Bertz]

 

I don't expect a serious pursuit of Semien. It's likely a "if his price falls below X" or a "if someone blows us away for a Javy trade" due diligence sort of thing.

 

That said, this is the second mid-tier FA the team has been connected to this week. You have to imagine this signals that there is some clarity on payroll. And given the timing, I imagine it's at least somewhat positive in light of the vaccine rollout. I still expect them to trade salary, but reinvesting most/all of what they cut is looking less like wishful thinking.

[cl smooth]

[Cubswin11]

All the smart pitching teams are in on him, so we definitely should be

 

[Backtobanks]

I'm still not sure what the payroll situation is because of all the mixed messages - trade Bryant, keep Bryant, trade Darvish, "in play" with Semien, looking for "diamonds in the rough" with Bourque and Holder, passing on DeSclafani and Wacha for low salaries, etc.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base.

 

Arraez plays 2B and has a slash line of .331/.390/.429/.819 over 2 seasons at 22 and 23 years old. Looks like he could solve the 2B and leadoff problems.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I’d give up some significant stuff for Arraez. Could be a spot for Willy.

[Bertz]

The Twins also seem like a logical destination for Darvish. They finished second for him a few years back, and they could really use someone to push Berrios into the #2 role he's more suited for.

[Backtobanks]

Yeah I’d give up some significant stuff for Arraez. Could be a spot for Willy.

 

Alcala + Arraez for Contreras?

[Backtobanks]

Yeah I’d give up some significant stuff for Arraez. Could be a spot for Willy.

 

Alcala + Arraez for Contreras?

 

:barf: Luckily the Twins have Garver and Jeffers at C and aren't really a Contreras match

 

Are we really that sold on Arraez's first 487 ML PAs across two seasons? I'm not. He finished the year ice cold and injured, doesn't play good defense/is only nominally a 2B, is a slow player who rocks a career .354 BABIP and extremely low power (his pro IsoSLG is .087 over almost 2500 PAs heading into his age 24 season), and also is pretty easily neutralized by breaking stuff (sub-.300 wOBA over 475 pitches between 2019-2020)

 

As I said, those first 487 ML PA were as a 22 and 23 year old, which makes the numbers even more impressive. He doesn't strike out much and has an OBP of .390. The Cubs are looking for reducing strike outs and getting on base in a leadoff man, so we can put our best hitters back into spots where they can drive in runs. Maybe if we wait to see what he does in the next 2-3 years, we might have to give up a lot more to get him plus pay him a ton of money in arbitration. This is only speculation by Rosenthal, but it looks better than the speculation about Semien at $13million per year.

[Backtobanks]

For Christmas, please, Cubs!

 

FAs:

 

Kyle Schwarber LF

Sean Doolittle LHRP

Hirokazu Sawamura RHRP

Jon Lester LHSP

Hyeon-Yong Jang LHSP

Jason Castro C

J. Lowrie 2B/1B

 

Trades:

 

Rays get: Contreras C, Dillon Maples RHRP

Cubs get: Manuel Margot CF, Jose Alvarado LHRP, Xavier Edwards 2B/IF/OF, Joe Ryan RHP

 

Indians get: Happ CF, Brad Wieck LHRP, C. Morel IF

Cubs get: Francisco Lindor SS, Bradley Zimmer OF, Scott Moss LHP

 

Royals get: David Bote 3B, Alec Mills RHSP, Chase Strumpf IF

Cubs get: Nick Lopez IF, Ronald Bolanos RHP

 

C: Caratini, Castro

1B: Rizzo, Lowrie

2B: Baez, Lopez, Lowrie

SS: Lindor, Baez, Lopez

3B: Bryant, Lopez

 

LF: Schwarber, Margot, Zimmer

CF: Margot, Zimmer

RF: Heyward, Margot, Zimmer

 

SP: Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Yang, Alzolay, Fenter, Rea, Bolanos, Marquez, Steele, K. Thompson, Abbott

 

RP: Kimbrel, Alvarado, Wick, Adam, Doolittle, Sawamura, Ryan, Rea, Fenter, Bolanos, Norwood, Holder, Winkler/Underwood, M. Rodriguez, Steele, Stock, Snelten, Abbott

 

As I posted before (about not knowing the payroll situation), I don't think PTR is going to approve 7 FA signings plus adding Lindor's salary while only disposing of Contreras' salary. If the Cubs have that much money to spend, we can certainly do better than that.

[Bertz]

As I posted before (about not knowing the payroll situation), I don't think PTR is going to approve 7 FA signings plus adding Lindor's salary while only disposing of Contreras' salary. If the Cubs have that much money to spend, we can certainly do better than that.

 

Yeah, I think best guess on payroll is that we're near PTR's cap already. Most teams this offseason who we have a decent grasp on their payroll situation are cutting 10-20% off of last year's pre-pandemic mark. The Cubs, if you count Lester's buyout as part of 2021 payroll, are at 20% right now ($215 vs $170).

 

And that seems to track with what the local guys are saying. They're making it seem like, without a trade, there's enough room for a 2020 style offseason. A few Kipnis types at a few million a pop, and a bunch of Tepera/Winkler style split contracts. So I'm personally assuming there's ~$10 million to play with, plus any additional money saved in trade.

 

Maybe Jed's playing possum. Or maybe the positive vaccine news has made PTR revise payroll upward. Unlikely, but we'll likely find out pretty quickly after the new year. Most of the notable Japanese and Korean guys were posted the first week of December. So their journeys have to find a resolution one way or another the first week of January.

[UMFan83]

[Derwood]

 

What the hell are the Reds doing?

[Backtobanks]

As I posted before (about not knowing the payroll situation), I don't think PTR is going to approve 7 FA signings plus adding Lindor's salary while only disposing of Contreras' salary. If the Cubs have that much money to spend, we can certainly do better than that.

 

Just Contreras' salary? Did you miss Happ, Mills, and Bote? That's something like another $15 million, IIRC bringing the drop to like $70 million between finished contracts and cuts. Also tbf, you've also posted that Luis Arraez can hit leadoff for the Chicago Cubs and might be worth giving up Willson Contreras so like...we're all speculating here! Since we are speculating, *can they really* do better than going Rizzo/Baez/Lindor/Bryant in the IF and a ton of depth around that group? I definitely doubt there's a realistic move out there actually available to be made that would have the impact adding Lindor to the lineup would. There's your high contact leadoff hitter who also adds to or maintains skills the team already has (defense, power, baserunning, speed)

 

6 of those guys are the oldest, cheapest FAs - a bucket that includes multiple guys who've outright said money isn't their #1. How much, realistically, is Jed Lowrie going to sign for? Jason Castro? Same for all those pitchers, including two guys coming from overseas who aren't coming for the deluge of money 2020 MLB FA will throw at a couple 32-33 YO pitchers. Who in that bunch is realistically getting even as little as $5-6 million guaranteed? I expect any real signings the Cubs make to be spread out over a bunch of smaller signings rather than shooting for one "big" lower tier first division guy like Odorizzi or Bradley Jr. or even someone a notch above like Semien

 

 

I don't know where you're getting your salary numbers for 2021. Happ + Bote + Mills is basically $3million (or less). I would expect Lester to get at least $5-6 million, Schwarber will probably get $5 million, the old guys and the overseas pitchers will all get in the $1-2 million range, Lindor is around $20 million, and Margot is around $3million. That's adding about $37 million while dumping about $11 million.

[Cubswin11]

As I posted before (about not knowing the payroll situation), I don't think PTR is going to approve 7 FA signings plus adding Lindor's salary while only disposing of Contreras' salary. If the Cubs have that much money to spend, we can certainly do better than that.

 

Yeah, I think best guess on payroll is that we're near PTR's cap already. Most teams this offseason who we have a decent grasp on their payroll situation are cutting 10-20% off of last year's pre-pandemic mark. The Cubs, if you count Lester's buyout as part of 2021 payroll, are at 20% right now ($215 vs $170).

 

And that seems to track with what the local guys are saying. They're making it seem like, without a trade, there's enough room for a 2020 style offseason. A few Kipnis types at a few million a pop, and a bunch of Tepera/Winkler style split contracts. So I'm personally assuming there's ~$10 million to play with, plus any additional money saved in trade.

Yeah I don’t expect us to run much more than a $170 mil payroll realistically. Optimistically, with the best information to guess off of that’s out there, I’m hoping we can at least get to $185. That allows for some decent adds without having to move money before adding and even moving off of just Willy gives a pretty healthy budget to add.

[Backtobanks]

I don't know where you're getting your salary numbers for 2021. Happ + Bote + Mills is basically $3million (or less). I would expect Lester to get at least $5-6 million, Schwarber will probably get $5 million, the old guys and the overseas pitchers will all get in the $1-2 million range, Lindor is around $20 million, and Margot is around $3million. That's adding about $37 million while dumping about $11 million.

 

Bold: Happ alone is projected to anywhere from $2.5-4.6 by MLBTR so I don't know where those numbers are coming from. For luxury tax purposes, Bote is $3 million by himself. So within the luxury tax, which the Ricketts have treated as at least a soft cap throughout, the Cubs are moving possibly as much as $15 million in those trades just between Contreras, Happ, and Bote

 

 

You can play with the numbers all you want, but PTR isn't going to add $37 million to the payroll without getting rid of that much or more.