2020 Offseason Thread

[raw]

Hope that nobody else wins 89

 

The NL Central winner could be as ugly as the NFC East.

 

I doubt the NL Central winner will lose 90 games

Pretty sure the NFC East winner will though.

[toonsterwu]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

 

Yes. I think the comparison of this year's crop to pre-2011 is closer than people would acknowledge (I'd take this group probably, value wise), but late 2011, Brett Jackson's swing was slowly getting exposed, and McNutt's stuff didn't show as well with a full season in AA. Baez's potential coming out might grade higher than Howard, but it probably isn't that big a gap.

 

Obviously, the key here is that we got another year's worth of data to assess Jackson and McNutt, and the world went south this year. We're missing that from Davis and Marquez. It's entirely possible by the end of 2021, it could go south (although if Davis struggles, I suspect it'll have less to do with swing dynamics and more to do with experience facing quality pitching).

[toonsterwu]

 

Contreras for Snell, doo it doo it

 

I'd do it, but color me surprised if Contreras can net Snell alone.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

 

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

 

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

A good friend who is much more of a casual fan texted me “You think he’s better than Brett Jackson???” when they traded for Rizzo.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

 

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

A good friend who is much more of a casual fan texted me “You think he’s better than Brett Jackson???” when they traded for Rizzo.

 

At least your friend didn’t confuse Jackson with Clayton Kershaw.

[Bertz]

 

Hoffman's always been a guy people think will pop after leaving the Rockies, but this still seems most likely to be a fairly nothing trade

[toonsterwu]

Reds and Rockies swapped NT candidate relievers, Hoffman and Stephenson...Hoffman's a Driveline guy and one of those cautionary tales that TJ surgery isn't some automatic fix, might have been an interesting buy low candidate but I don't really see this as a buy low trade

 

I'm not going to hold out much hope, but if the Rockies can get someone useful for Hoffman after years of trying to give him a job...maybe Almora can be moved before 12/2? Phillies and Blue Jays both have depth pitching and a need for CF depth. The Phillies really seem like a match seeing as nearly half their top 30 prospects are Rule 5 eligible, they can run a platoon with Almora/Haseley...All I'm looking for is Ranger Suarez or Damon Jones or Kyle Dohy or even Kyle Young

 

Also maybe promising for the Cubs is that the Rockies traded a 2020 draft pick, Case Williams...Luke Little probably appeals to teams just by existing as is

 

Edit: Beat by like 15 minutes lol...I wander alot

 

I think there's a lot more wishful dreaming on former high ceiling arms than there are on positional assets that haven't panned out over an extended run while showing similar issues/problems. That said, could I see a team potentially take a shot on Almora? Sure. I'm hard pressed to see anything more than a struggle swap (someone who has equally struggled in the bigs) or a low level lottery ticket type move.

[Southpaw19]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

 

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

 

The last 2 off-seasons have been glacial-paced, so I can't imagine this winter being anything but a snooze-fest.

[Backtobanks]

 

JIC there's any question of how seriously to take a BN article about offseason moves: an article that portrays Bryant to the Dodgers as a totally definitely serious option to consider, wonders yet again whether to tender a contract to Kris Bryant this offseason...Shills be shilling

 

----

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/red-sox-claim-joel-payamps-waivers-dbacks.html

 

Wouldn't mind Stock if he gets released. He's averaged close to 98 on his fastball during his ML callups, during 2020 posted a sub-.200 wOBA/xwOBA with his slider, only 3 HRs allowed in 60+ ML innings since 2018

 

It is hard to figure out what's going on this off season. All of this speculation about Bryant's worth while every team is drooling over Lindor. I get lindor is great and plays SS, but Bryant's not exactly chopped liver.

[Post Count Padder]

Reds and Rockies swapped NT candidate relievers, Hoffman and Stephenson...Hoffman's a Driveline guy and one of those cautionary tales that TJ surgery isn't some automatic fix, might have been an interesting buy low candidate but I don't really see this as a buy low trade

 

I'm not going to hold out much hope, but if the Rockies can get someone useful for Hoffman after years of trying to give him a job...maybe Almora can be moved before 12/2? Phillies and Blue Jays both have depth pitching and a need for CF depth. The Phillies really seem like a match seeing as nearly half their top 30 prospects are Rule 5 eligible, they can run a platoon with Almora/Haseley...All I'm looking for is Ranger Suarez or Damon Jones or Kyle Dohy or even Kyle Young

 

Also maybe promising for the Cubs is that the Rockies traded a 2020 draft pick, Case Williams...Luke Little probably appeals to teams just by existing as is

 

Edit: Beat by like 15 minutes lol...I wander alot

I've gradually started rooting for/following the Phillies since I moved here years ago and I've thought about them as a trade partner various times the past couple years. It makes a lot of sense. I've liked Damon Jones awhile (homer ish, I met him in Reading and he signed a ball for me) and he has intriguing stuff as a lefty and is a little buried on their depth chart. Ranger suarez is another who has interesting stuff but nowhere to really go there.

[Bertz]

 

This is going to continue to be a very slow offseason, but we might get a burst of activity this week. I think if Schwarber goes anywhere this offseason it'll be pre-deadline. And this week is probably the most likely time for KB to go too, though it if he's still here on Thursday I don't think it changes the odds of a trade all that drastically.

[Backtobanks]

 

This is going to continue to be a very slow offseason, but we might get a burst of activity this week. I think if Schwarber goes anywhere this offseason it'll be pre-deadline. And this week is probably the most likely time for KB to go too, though it if he's still here on Thursday I don't think it changes the odds of a trade all that drastically.

 

Yankees are in need of a LH slugger, and MLBTR lists 3 cheap Yankee relivers (Cessa, Heller, and Holder) as non-tender candidates. Not great, but better than giving Schwarber away for nothing.

[Backtobanks]

Cubs Insider offers some bold moves:

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/11/28/the-rundown-radical-plan-to-retool-cubs-roster-theo-epstein-not-interested-in-phillies-position-hot-stove-notes/?fbclid=IwAR1rrXnO_HLE-lmDG687QGEQ4aqlKDb7psE3HfGijLPMF2C7BJY3fk1n3Lc

 

I think he is delusional with the Merrifield/Hoerner swap and the White Sox trade for Schwarber, but the Bryant deal would be a good move. I'm not sure the Angels would give up that much pitching for Contreras and Happ.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Boy that is an aimless mess of bad moves

[Bertz]

 

Minor was my preferred safe but unexciting rotation option. Curious what he netted salary-wise

[Banedon]

[Bertz]

Well then

 

[Cubswin11]

Always liked Urena. Think there’s a solid swing man/bullpen arm in there with maybe still a chance to make it as a mid-back end starter under the right coaching.

 

[Bertz]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

 

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

[Backtobanks]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

 

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

 

Schwarber for Gray straight up. Schwarber In Colorado might hit 50 homers.

[Cubswin11]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

 

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

I’m pretty sure Adbert has another option year. But yeah I get not wanting to go all of Urena/Adbert/Mills in the rotation. Like I said I’d view Urena more as a bullpen piece (kinda like Rea). Adbert needs to be given the chance to sink or swing as a SP (he’ll obviously be on an innings limit so having extra SP depth this year will be big). I think Mills fizzles out if he’s given a full rotation sport over 162, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not on the roster/in the rotation by the ASB/trade deadline. He obviously deserves a spot to start the year but I think he blows up.

 

But yeah Gray needs to be a legit target in some way. Either as a NT FA or a trade target.

[Backtobanks]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

 

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

I’m pretty sure Adbert has another option year. But yeah I get not wanting to go all of Urena/Adbert/Mills in the rotation. Like I said I’d view Urena more as a bullpen piece (kinda like Rea). Adbert needs to be given the chance to sink or swing as a SP (he’ll obviously be on an innings limit so having extra SP depth this year will be big). I think Mills fizzles out if he’s given a full rotation sport over 162, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not on the roster/in the rotation by the ASB/trade deadline. He obviously deserves a spot to start the year but I think he blows up.

 

But yeah Gray needs to be a legit target in some way. Either as a NT FA or a trade target.

 

I agree about Mills. I think he would be a good secondary piece in a trade (assuming the Cubs pick up another starter). A cheap option as a swingman could be our old friend Trevor Cahill.

[Cubswin11]

Please don’t NT Tepera (he’s projected for a little over $1 mil in arb, it’s no money and they may have unearthed something. Also want to keep Rea to a lesser degree but similar reasons that they may have found something in a 1 inning true reliever role).

 

[Bertz]

 

Good is probably a strong word for the SP market, but certainly much less bad than expected. At least so far.