2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Every year, we put up a new thread for draft day. Post everything in here and I’ll lock the other thread. I will update this OP with the Cubs’ actual picks as they are made.

 

This year’s draft is only 5 rounds and all NDFAs can only sign for up to $20k. Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A are today (that’s the first 37 picks), starting at 6 pm CT on ESPN and MLB Network. The rest of the draft will air tomorrow.

 

Here are the final mocks from the major publications:

 

• Carlos Collazo, Baseball America: Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
  
• Eric Longenhangen, Fangraphs: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina St
  
• Jim Callis, MLB.com: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
  
• Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com: Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
  
• Keith Law, Athletic: PM mock: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, HS (Los Angeles, CA); AM mock: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi St
  
• Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: Rd 1 - Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor & Rd 2 - Nick Swiney, LHP, NC State
  
• Patrick Mooney at The Athletic has these 6 guys on the Cubs radar today: Garrett Mitchell (UCLA outfielder), Ed Howard (Chicago, IL prep SS), Austin Hendrick (Imperial, PA prep OF), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Los Angeles, CA prep OF), Nick Bitsko (Doylestown, PA prep RHP) & Mick Abel (Portland, OR prep RHP)

 

The Cubs 2020 Bonus Pool: $6,721,600 ($7,057,680 with 5% overage).

 

All signings: $6,866,800

Slot with 5% overage for all signings: $7,057,680

Unused Bonus Space with 5% overage: $190,880 (went over slot by $145,200)

 

2020 Cubs Draft:

 

1.16 (Slot: $3,745,500): Ed Howard, SS, Mt. Carmel HS (Chicago, IL) - Ranks: Athletic: 15, BA: 20, ESPN: 34 (45 FV), FG: 11 (45+ FV), MLB: 15 - signing bonus: $3,745,500

2.51 (Slot: $1,436,900): Burl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist - Ranks: Athletic: 90, BA: 72, ESPN: 53 (40+ FV), FG: 44 (40+ FV), MLB: 49 - signing bonus: $1,050,000

3.88 (Slot: $678,600): Jordan Nwogu, OF, Michigan - Ranks: Athletic: 68, BA: 197, ESPN: 141 (40 FV), FG: 191 (35+ FV), MLB: 108 - signing bonus: $678,600

4.117 (Slot: $492,700): Luke Little, LHP, San Jacinto JC (Pasadena, TX) - Ranks: BA: 121, FG: 149 (35+ FV), MLB: 166 - signing bonus: $492,700

5.147 (Slot: $367,900): Koen Moreno, RHP, Panther Creek HS (Cary, NC): Ranks: BA: 128, FG: 233 (35+ FV) - signing bonus: $900,000

 

NDFA Signings (Cap of $20k bonus):

 

Bradlee Beesley, OF, Cal Poly - BA rank: 429

Scott McKeon, INF, Coastal Carolina - BA rank: 438

Scott Kobos, LHP, Coastal Carolina

Graham Lawson, RHP, South Carolina

Ben Leeper, RHP, Oklahoma State

Bailey Reid, RHP, Westmont (CA)

Jacob Wetzel, OF, Frederick JC (MD)

Matt Mervis, 1B/RHP, Duke

Sam Thoresen, RHP, Minnesota

Ángel González, RHP, Emilio R Delgado School (Corozal, PR)

[Post Count Padder]

I haven't followed too closely but it seems like Hendrick or Mitchell is the most mocked pick but over the past few seasons have the mocks actually been correct on what we do? I feel like no one had us taking Jensen last year. Just curious where they go.

 

And what is post Round 5 gonna look like? A free-for-all for the top UDFAs?

[Regular Show]

I found this courtesy of someone named Matt over on Fangraphs, so all credit goes to him:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C7kOFbma0QSMCzfm0U83H5jgQcdLgRxKU7TTn04EWZw/edit?usp=sharing

 

I believe it's accurate? He mentions a few things in his notes as well.

[Bertz]

I haven't followed too closely but it seems like Hendrick or Mitchell is the most mocked pick but over the past few seasons have the mocks actually been correct on what we do? I feel like no one had us taking Jensen last year. Just curious where they go.

 

And what is post Round 5 gonna look like? A free-for-all for the top UDFAs?

 

The Cubs used to be super predictable. I think Jim Callis in particular was super chummy with Wilkin and is super chummy with McLeod. But the last few years I don't think they've been that accurate. I think there was a little bit of smoke for Nico Hoerner, but I don't think there's been a pick we were pretty sure about beforehand since Schwarber.

[Regular Show]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

[Hrubes20]

Every year, we put up a new thread for draft day. Post everything in here and I’ll lock the other thread. I will update this OP with the Cubs’ actual picks as they are made.

 

This year’s draft is only 5 rounds and all NDFAs can only sign for up to $20k. Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A are today (that’s the first 37 picks), starting at 6 pm CT on ESPN and MLB Network. The rest of the draft will air tomorrow.

 

Here are the final mocks from the major publications:

 

• Carlos Collazo, Baseball America: Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
  
• Eric Longenhangen, Fangraphs (from Monday, 6/8): Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
  
• Jim Callis, MLB.com: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
  
• Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com: Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
  
• Keith Law, Athletic: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi St
  Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: Rd 1 - Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor & Rd 2 - Nick Swiney, LHP, NC State
  
• Patrick Mooney at The Athletic has these 6 guys on the Cubs radar today: Garrett Mitchell (UCLA outfielder), Ed Howard (Chicago, IL prep SS), Austin Hendrick (Imperial, PA prep OF), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Los Angeles, CA prep OF), Nick Bitsko (Doylestown, PA prep RHP) & Mick Abel (Portland, OR prep RHP)

 

The Cubs 2020 Bonus Pool: $6,721,600

 

1.16 (Slot: $3,745,500)

2.51 (Slot: $1,436,900)

3.88 (Slot: $678,600)

4.117 (Slot: $492,700)

5.147 (Slot: $367,900)

 

Oh man, that is a gross draft from Kiley.

[Hrubes20]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

[Regular Show]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

 

Dylan Crews is no longer eligible (I believe this is correct) and removed his name from the draft. Someone lower ranked than Dylan Crews.

 

I believe it's the Angels as well, but I couldn't get confirmation. It could be a team behind the Cubs... Maybe the Angels and another team behind the Cubs? Weird year and just really hard to get reliable info on this draft.

[Hrubes20]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

 

Dylan Crews is no longer eligible (I believe this is correct) and removed his name from the draft. Someone lower ranked than Dylan Crews.

 

I believe it's the Angels as well, but I couldn't get confirmation. It could be a team behind the Cubs... Maybe the Angels and another team behind the Cubs? Weird year and just really hard to get reliable info on this draft.

 

Did they change the rule to where a player has to actually declare eligibility for the draft? Honestly asking, as before a player could remove their name from the draft, but still get taken anyway.

[Regular Show]

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

 

Dylan Crews is no longer eligible (I believe this is correct) and removed his name from the draft. Someone lower ranked than Dylan Crews.

 

I believe it's the Angels as well, but I couldn't get confirmation. It could be a team behind the Cubs... Maybe the Angels and another team behind the Cubs? Weird year and just really hard to get reliable info on this draft.

 

Did they change the rule to where a player has to actually declare eligibility for the draft? Honestly asking, as before a player could remove their name from the draft, but still get taken anyway.

 

I believe Eric Longenhagen said in one of his weekly chat sessions that they changed it. A prospect can simply inform or request his name be removed and then a team doesn't even have the option to take him. I'm almost 100% positive Dylan Crews is not eligible to be taken.

 

Before I believe the top 50 or 100 prospects in the draft (determined by MLB) have to take an MLB-mandated drug test and provide a urine sample. If they refuse to do that then their name is removed, so that's one way you could do it in the past. Graduate HS early and enroll in the spring semester and that's another way to remove yourself.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

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[Cubswin11]

Reminder that ESPN is showing the draft (Kiley will be on) so watch that over the buffoons at MLBN. 6PM CT.

[Named After Maddux]

I just thought about putting together a mock for fun and discussion. Looking forward to tonight/tomorrow.

 

Pick 16: Garrett Mitchell, OF

It seems like this is a relatively common pick in mocks, most likely because it’s hard to place Mitchell and the Cubs look like they’re keeping things close to the vest. I know that he’s not the most universally popular pick. I’ve gone through different phases of interest in Mitchell. It was exciting at first to see a top 10 player possibly fall, but that swing is going to need some work. I’m somewhere in the middle now. This is the highest the Cubs have picked in 5 years and there should be some talent available. They should go upside and Mitchell is one option that has upside. The Cubs have done a solid job on swing changes (Hoerner and Brennen Davis) and invested heavily with a director of hitting. Mitchell is listed as plus raw power, but even if they can get the swing ironed out to give about average power, that would be massive for his profile. I could see an optimistic view of his future as a LH CF Trea Turner, plus hit tool, low to medium power, plus defense, plus-plus speed.

Admittedly I’d have several players who could be available over Mitchell. All of Able, Bitsko, PCA, Ed Howard, and probably Soderstrom. I could even buy-in on Austin Wells for an underslot since that bat looks like it’ll play (maybe around pick 23 slot value?). However, if I’m just guessing for the sake of a mock, I’ll say Garrett Mitchell.

 

Alternate: Mick Abel, RHP.

There’s a good chance he’s gone by this. The Cubs had a lot of chatter even last year of looking at HS RHPs in the first round. Was it Passen that was convinced the Cubs had an agreement for $2.5 million with Matt Allan? Both Sahadev and Mooney mentioned that if Quinn Priester had made it to their pick, they’d have taken him. I really think Jered Jones could be fun too, but is this too high?

Pick 51: Logan Allen, LHP

 

FIU pitchability lefty with a below-average fastball, but features deception. He has an average curveball and a plus circle-change. Allen had a strong year in the CCBL and has been a two-way player so maybe there’s some upside there. It’s not my favorite profile, but he’s a potential. I also strongly considered Christian Roa from Texas A&M and Gage Workman from ASU.

 

Alternate: Nick Swiney, LHP

 

Pick 88: Ben Hernandez, RHP

 

He’s an advanced high school arm with an impressive change-up (the best in the prep class by BA). He has a repeatable delivery and was last up to touching 95 with the fastball. He’s still working on creating an average breaking ball and that’s something the Cubs have demonstrated they can work on with pitchers. It doesn’t hurt that he’s from Chicago and grew up a Cubs fan.

 

Alternate: Ricky Tierderman, LHP

 

Pick 117: Tyler McDonough, OF/2B

 

He was a catcher in HS, but Patrick Bailey is at NC State. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cubs think he could transition to C in the pros. Otherwise, he has athleticism and could continue at his current positions. He’s a switch hitter and is hit over power, but flashed power a bit recently. MLB pipeline comped him to Adam Eaton.

I had Alec Burleson, 1B as one of about 15-20 guys I was looking at for picks 4/5, but I wasn’t going to pick him. BA connected him this morning to the Cubs. I stuck with my own picks, but, obviously, BA is likely right here.

 

Alternate: Jimmy Glowenke, SS (likely a 2B)

 

Pick 147: Bryce Bonnin, RHP

 

I went with former Cubs picks here. I don’t know if he makes it here, but I’m guessing a bit more than slot to sign him if it’s 4th/5th. Bonnin’s an interesting pitcher who could be an impact reliever with a 60 fastball and 60 slider, and BA noted he transferred because he wants to start. He has a decent curve and change-up, but has inconsistent mechanics. I’ll guess a team offers him a chance to start and can move to relief if needed.

 

Alternate: Mitchell Parker, LHP

 

Edit:Jared Jones not Josh Jones

Edited June 10, 2020 by Named After Maddux

[Regular Show]

I can confirm Ben Hernandez is in play for the Cubs, but other teams like him too. Great changeup and outstanding makeup. Cubs will probably only take 1 HS prospect this year.

 

Ed Howard is a Sox fan and yeah, Hernandez is a huge Cubs fan.

 

EDIT: Just to be clear, I mean he's in play to possibly be drafted tomorrow. We're not considering him for our 1st round pick.

[Hrubes20]

I can confirm Ben Hernandez is in play for the Cubs, but other teams like him too. Great changeup and outstanding makeup. Cubs will probably only take 1 HS prospect this year.

 

Ed Howard is a Sox fan and yeah, Hernandez is a huge Cubs fan.

 

EDIT: Just to be clear, I mean he's in play to possibly be drafted tomorrow. We're not considering him for our 1st round pick.

 

That is unfortunately what I was expecting to be the case, given everything with this year's draft. Sigh.

[Hrubes20]

I wouldn't be surprised if that surprise pick is Robby Ashford to the Pirates or Padres...They've both got money and picks to play with, one has already gone through not signing their top ten pick and getting the comp...Easy to forget that Ashford opened up high in this draft, one of the handful best preps, only fell off because of that dumb second sport

 

I think it's more likely that Ashford goes undrafted than it is that he goes in the 1st.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Garrett Mitchell’s junior year fall reminds me of Trea Turner’s. Both were well regarded, athletic prospects who fell due to injury/health issues and swing concerns.

[Cubswin11]

Mitchell, Workman or Cabrera and 3 pitchers (don’t care to look in to them because horsefeathers pitchers, they’ll all break anyways, I’ll learn and get excited about the guys we take after the fact) is probably my ideal draft.

[Regular Show]

Garrett Mitchell’s junior year fall reminds me of Trea Turner’s. Both were well regarded, athletic prospects who fell due to injury/health issues and swing concerns.

 

No one knew what Trea Turner's ultimate position was going to be and most scouts had doubts he could stick at SS.

 

Yeah, some similarities for sure. Turner is the better athlete, but Mitchell is also very good athletically. I don't know if the Padres or Nats did anything to his swing or if he just got stronger naturally? I'd have to ask.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

 

The name making the rounds yesterday was Drew Bowser, an LA-area prep infielder with an incredibly strong Stanford commitment. But the Angels denied the rumor yesterday (everyone knows it’s them), so I wonder if they’ll switch gears and just take someone severely underslot like a college guy expected to go in the 20s.

[Regular Show]

Not totally sure if I should share this because it might not happen, but I was told a strong rumor a few days ago about a team that might take a lower-ranked prospect in the 1st round. And this selection will be a big shocker when it happens/if it happens...

 

Not sure if the team is just trying to punt the pick to get another one next year, or if they truly intend to sign this kid to a massive underslot deal. I think I know the team and possibly the prospect, but it's all speculation. I haven't been able to get more info, but it could help the Cubs if this team decides to do this stupid strategy.

 

Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen might get a tip and mention it later today.

 

I've seen this mentioned hypothetically with the Angels and Dylan Crews. Angels will offer 40% of slot to keep their pick for next year; Crews already took himself out of the draft so he isn't signing for 40%; and the Angels get to save their money this year without getting lambasted by others for screwing over a player (since he already wasn't going to be signing). Definitely would help the Cubs by pushing a player down a bit.

 

The name making the rounds yesterday was Drew Bowser, an LA-area prep infielder with an incredibly strong Stanford commitment. But the Angels denied the rumor yesterday (everyone knows it’s them), so I wonder if they’ll switch gears and just take someone severely underslot like a college guy expected to go in the 20s.

 

There are other HS kids with pretty strong commitments. The problem with taking a college guy for a severe underslot deal is that he might actually accept it...

 

So, 40% of their slot value ($4,739,900) is still $1,895,960, which is substantial and roughly equivalent to the 39th pick bonus slot. You have to offer 40% to recoup the pick, unless they changed that for this year. That's why you kind of have to take a talented HS prospect with a strong commitment if you want to punt it (in the Angels' case). Maybe they aren't trying to bump it to next year...

 

Maybe JT Ginn? He would reject that amount.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Garrett Mitchell’s junior year fall reminds me of Trea Turner’s. Both were well regarded, athletic prospects who fell due to injury/health issues and swing concerns.

 

No one knew what Trea Turner's ultimate position was going to be and most scouts had doubts he could stick at SS.

 

Yeah, some similarities for sure. Turner is the better athlete, but Mitchell is also very good athletically. I don't know if the Padres or Nats did anything to his swing or if he just got stronger naturally? I'd have to ask.

 

I'm not comparing them more in depth than just to say they were both as well-regarded, highly athletic college players who fell their draft years for similar reasons.

 

Turner's swing was much longer in college than it was his rookie year in the big leagues. Teams didn’t like it because it didn’t match his speedy profile.

[Regular Show]

Garrett Mitchell’s junior year fall reminds me of Trea Turner’s. Both were well regarded, athletic prospects who fell due to injury/health issues and swing concerns.

 

No one knew what Trea Turner's ultimate position was going to be and most scouts had doubts he could stick at SS.

 

Yeah, some similarities for sure. Turner is the better athlete, but Mitchell is also very good athletically. I don't know if the Padres or Nats did anything to his swing or if he just got stronger naturally? I'd have to ask.

 

I'm not comparing them more in depth than just to say they were both as well-regarded, highly athletic college players who fell their draft years for similar reasons.

 

Turner's swing was much longer in college than it was his rookie year in the big leagues.

 

I'll take your word on that; I honestly don't remember Trea Turner's swing from college. I was keyed-in on Michael Conforto and I really liked Carlos Rodon (never trust a pitching prospect at the top of the draft)...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

D1 Baseball mock draft:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Sigh. Eric’s new mock.

 

16. Chicago Cubs – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

As the draft approaches, Bailey is the one college hitter who appears to be slipping down the board, and I think a team with a track record of drafting safe college players will just take him. I also have the Cubs attached to Alika Williams, though I’m not sure if they’d cut for him here or if that’d be in Round 2.

 

Abel, Bitsko, Hendrick and Mitchell all were available.