Castellanos to Reds 4/64 With Opt Outs

[Cubswin11]

I’m fine not bringing him back at 4/64 and opt outs. None of the 3 Fangraphs systems have him over 2 WAR for this year and he seems pretty capped at 3 wins as his ceiling. Sucks he’s staying in the division though.

 

[Old Style]

I like him as a player but that seems like too much.

[David]

I’m fine not bringing him back at 4/64 and opt outs. None of the 3 Fangraphs systems have him over 2 WAR for this year and he seems pretty capped at 3 wins as his ceiling. Sucks he’s staying in the division though.

 

 

Pretty much where I stand. He isn't a particularly good fit for this roster unless significant changes were made, and I'd rather keep Schwarber.

[Cubswin11]

[UMFan83]

Shogo Akiyama

Joey Votto

Eugenio Suarez

Mike Moustakas

Nicholas Castellanos

Freddy Galvis

Aristides Aquino

Tucker Barnhart

 

That's a really horsefeathering solid lineup

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Trevor Bauer

Anthony DeSclafani

Wade Miles

 

That's a solid rotation

 

Raisel Iglesaias

Michael Lorenzen

Amir Garrett

 

Thats a solid start to a bullpen

[David]

Shogo Akiyama

Joey Votto

Eugenio Suarez

Mike Moustakas

Nicholas Castellanos

Freddy Galvis

Aristides Aquino

Tucker Barnhart

 

That's a really horsefeathering solid lineup

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Trevor Bauer

Anthony DeSclafani

Wade Miles

 

That's a solid rotation

 

Raisel Iglesaias

Michael Lorenzen

Amir Garrett

 

Thats a solid start to a bullpen

 

 

 

even with castellanos, meh?

 

they'll be a pain in the ass tho

[Bertz]

 

It's...actually still not all that scary when looking at it all together. The defense is going to be bad, and the offense is prett weak outside of the middle of the order unless 36 year old Joey Votto bounces back. You could get Winker (RF) and Senzel (SS) in there for a more potent offense, but then you're looking at a horrendous defense. I think this team rides or does based on the rotation more than anything.

[Cubswin11]

 

It's...actually still not all that scary when looking at it all together. The defense is going to be bad, and the offense is prett weak outside of the middle of the order unless 36 year old Joey Votto bounces back. You could get Winker (RF) and Senzel (SS) in there for a more potent offense, but then you're looking at a horrendous defense. I think this team rides or does based on the rotation more than anything.

Yeah the hype around them is a bit much. They will be in the mix for sure. But they won 75 games last year and likely only added 5-7 wins between Moustakas, Castellanos, Miley and Akiyama on the high side. Moustakas and Castellanos might take each other out on a short fly ball to RF. The defense is going to be really bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cincy doesn't have to become division contenders to alter the season, they just need to become relatively competent against teams other than the Cubs this year.

[Brian]

I won't make any estimations on the quality of the Reds in general but whatever the over/under on wins by the Cubs against them this season is I'd take the under

[Cubswin11]

I won't make any estimations on the quality of the Reds in general but whatever the over/under on wins by the Cubs against them this season is I'd take the under

Oh they’re going to be annoying as hell, especially vs us.

[Cubswin11]

[UMFan83]

 

It's...actually still not all that scary when looking at it all together. The defense is going to be bad, and the offense is prett weak outside of the middle of the order unless 36 year old Joey Votto bounces back. You could get Winker (RF) and Senzel (SS) in there for a more potent offense, but then you're looking at a horrendous defense. I think this team rides or does based on the rotation more than anything.

Yeah the hype around them is a bit much. They will be in the mix for sure. But they won 75 games last year and likely only added 5-7 wins between Moustakas, Castellanos, Miley and Akiyama on the high side. Moustakas and Castellanos might take each other out on a short fly ball to RF. The defense is going to be really bad.

 

Don't forget getting a 20+ more starts out of Bauer (and presumably the other 10 they get will be better than the 10 they got last year) and replacing Tyler Mahle with Wade Miley. Although this is the first season since 2017 where Miley won't play for Milwaukee and Houston where he suspiciously had the 2 best years of his career. That has to be worth another 1-3 wins

[UMFan83]

Shogo Akiyama

Joey Votto

Eugenio Suarez

Mike Moustakas

Nicholas Castellanos

Freddy Galvis

Aristides Aquino

Tucker Barnhart

 

That's a really horsefeathering solid lineup

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Trevor Bauer

Anthony DeSclafani

Wade Miles

 

That's a solid rotation

 

Raisel Iglesaias

Michael Lorenzen

Amir Garrett

 

Thats a solid start to a bullpen

 

 

 

even with castellanos, meh?

 

they'll be a pain in the ass tho

 

Isn't replacement level wins roughly 52? That would put this projection at 87.6 wins before Castellanos (though he probably adds like 1 win at most replacing other production)

[Cubswin11]

 

It's...actually still not all that scary when looking at it all together. The defense is going to be bad, and the offense is prett weak outside of the middle of the order unless 36 year old Joey Votto bounces back. You could get Winker (RF) and Senzel (SS) in there for a more potent offense, but then you're looking at a horrendous defense. I think this team rides or does based on the rotation more than anything.

Yeah the hype around them is a bit much. They will be in the mix for sure. But they won 75 games last year and likely only added 5-7 wins between Moustakas, Castellanos, Miley and Akiyama on the high side. Moustakas and Castellanos might take each other out on a short fly ball to RF. The defense is going to be really bad.

 

Don't forget getting a 20+ more starts out of Bauer (and presumably the other 10 they get will be better than the 10 they got last year) and replacing Tyler Mahle with Wade Miley. Although this is the first season since 2017 where Miley won't play for Milwaukee and Houston where he suspiciously had the 2 best years of his career. That has to be worth another 1-3 wins

The extra Bauer starts are big. Mahle was worth 1.4 las year to Miley’s 2. Don’t really think that’s an upgrade, but helps with depth for sure. Iglesias and Dietrich were really solid for them last year too, they got 2.7 WAR out of them in the MIF. Which likely is just replaced by Moustakas at best and not improved upon. Same with Castellanos in RF, they got 1.6 WAR out of Acquino and Puig. Castellanos is maybe adding ~1 win there over what they got.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Reds are basically the 2016-18 Cardinals at this point, probably a half step worse since their depth won't be as good. That'll be really irritating and if they get a bunch of stars to align they could get the wild card, but they aren't the favorite or even 2nd best team in the division.

 

The team that has the most to worry about this is the Brewers, who look like they might become the 2016-18 Pirates.

[Brian]

I don't get the Bleacher Nation meltdown connecting this to the Bryant grievance.... the only way KB out and Castellanos in had any chance of making the Cubs better now and in the future was the .0000001% chance of happening KB out, Castellanos and Arenado in scenario.

[Bertz]

 

Sounds like the Reds are probably done, at least with big moves.

[David]

Shogo Akiyama

Joey Votto

Eugenio Suarez

Mike Moustakas

Nicholas Castellanos

Freddy Galvis

Aristides Aquino

Tucker Barnhart

 

That's a really horsefeathering solid lineup

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Trevor Bauer

Anthony DeSclafani

Wade Miles

 

That's a solid rotation

 

Raisel Iglesaias

Michael Lorenzen

Amir Garrett

 

Thats a solid start to a bullpen

 

 

 

even with castellanos, meh?

 

they'll be a pain in the ass tho

 

Isn't replacement level wins roughly 52? That would put this projection at 87.6 wins before Castellanos (though he probably adds like 1 win at most replacing other production)

 

 

This article is damn near 7 years old from when they tried to align fWAR more closely with bWAR, so take it with a bit of a grain of salt, but it's all I could find from Fangraphs...

 

Or, an easier way to put it is that our new replacement level is now equal to a .294 winning percentage, which works out to 47.7 wins over a full season.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/unifying-replacement-level/

[Brian]

If you're feeling bad about this, perhaps knowing his mom is a lunatic will help?

 

 

just start scrolling

[imb]

If you're feeling bad about this, perhaps knowing his mom is a lunatic will help?

 

 

just start scrolling

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I’m fine not bringing him back at 4/64 and opt outs. None of the 3 Fangraphs systems have him over 2 WAR for this year and he seems pretty capped at 3 wins as his ceiling. Sucks he’s staying in the division though.

 

 

4/64 is fine but with opt-outs that makes it so, so bad.

[Cubswin11]

I’m fine not bringing him back at 4/64 and opt outs. None of the 3 Fangraphs systems have him over 2 WAR for this year and he seems pretty capped at 3 wins as his ceiling. Sucks he’s staying in the division though.

 

 

4/64 is fine but with opt-outs that makes it so, so bad.

Right, which with the opt outs he should’ve cost less. Either hits the horsefeathers out of the ball one of the next two years and leaves or reverts back to his 1.5-2 win self or worse and stays and is “overpaid.”

Edited January 29, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Derwood]

These are the kind of crap deals that crap teams like the Reds have to offer to get anyone to play for them