Bears vs Cowboys Thursday night on FOX

[UMFan83]

I'm trying hard not to fall too far into the "Mitch is finally starting to figure things out" category. I'm hopeful he's turning a corner but afraid it's just fool's gold.

 

Best case scenario: Mitch is really turning the corner

Worst case and most likely scenario: Mitch plays well enough for the Bears to not bring in any competition in the offseason and then he turns back into Mitchell Trubisky next year.

[gflore34]

This is cool - Playoff Odds Simulator

 

One scenario for the Bears - they win out + Week 14 - Seahawks beat Rams at LA, Week 15 - Vikings lose to the Chargers in LA, Rams beat the Cowboys in Dallas, Week 16 - 49ers beat the Rams in San Francisco. The main point is winning out, it's almost impossible but, could happen. Assuming they win out, those other game outcomes above are not completely unreasonable.

[Brian]

I could be way off, but I feel like even if Mitch was playing fine/good to great all season a higher end backup would be brought in for next year no matter what with Daniel's contract is up, you don't need an expert in the playbook as the backup anymore and with Mitch missing time in each of the last two seasons and with his style of play (when he runs like last night).

 

A strong finish by Mitch might keep them from a 2nd round QB, which might not be a bad thing.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I could be way off, but I feel like even if Mitch was playing fine/good to great all season a higher end backup would be brought in for next year no matter what with Daniel's contract is up, you don't need an expert in the playbook as the backup anymore and with Mitch missing time in each of the last two seasons and with his style of play (when he runs like last night).

 

A strong finish by Mitch might keep them from a 2nd round QB, which might not be a bad thing.

 

Iit would be the best outcome, and why I cheer on Mitch. We have other needs, like TACKLE

[We Got The Whole 9]

I could be way off, but I feel like even if Mitch was playing fine/good to great all season a higher end backup would be brought in for next year no matter what with Daniel's contract is up, you don't need an expert in the playbook as the backup anymore and with Mitch missing time in each of the last two seasons and with his style of play (when he runs like last night).

 

A strong finish by Mitch might keep them from a 2nd round QB, which might not be a bad thing.

 

Iit would be the best outcome, and why I cheer on Mitch. We have other needs, like TACKLE

We need more viable edge rushers badly. Leno and Massie are locked in with their salaries already. I'd prefer a vet pickup there. The draft class is strong at edge and we could get something really nice to complement Mack. I've seen enough of Floyd to know that he is an utter JAG.

 

Keep grooming Bars and hope he can supplant Massie next year at some point.

[gflore34]

Getting Mitch on the move was obviously key to the game, it seems, for once, Nagy figured out how to put him in the best position to succeed. I would think the game plan should not change much vs. the Packers, their pass rush has improved but, their not so good everywhere else, very vulnerable. Bears get Hicks back do not how much he'll play nor what impact he's going have, at the very least, his presence should fire them up.

[WrigleyField 22]

And he's thrown 5 INTs in his last 4 games after throwing 3 in his first 7 games. And that's fine...I'd much rather have him throwing downfield and risking the occasional INT than having him throwing dump passes to Cohen for 3 yards all game.

I cannot get on board with this theory, that admittedly has been shared by many others. Mitch was throwing deep before, he wasn't intercepted becuase he'd miss everybody by 5 yards. He also had quite a few "should have been" INTs, and plenty of them on shorter passes as well. The INT last night was really bad. He was not pressured, had plenty of time to get rid of the ball, and should have just thrown it away (although I suspect the film will show he had some open receivers earlier). He's lucky the defense stepped up after Dallas started with a precision drive.

 

He did play great and has rebounded nicely, but I am not for "the interceptions means he's trying more" mentality. His INTs are from bad decisions.

From his first 4 games to his next 5 or 6, there was actually a jump in more aggressive/downfield throws per next-gen stats. Last night wasn't actually a great example, but teams having to respect the mid to deep field probably has probably helped to open things up for him in the short game where his lack of pinpoint accuracy isn't hurting him as much to set up big plays on short throws, like the screens that went for big gains last night.

 

I had to transcribe these so hopefully no transcription errors;

CAY= Average Completed Air Yards

IAY = Average Intended Air Yards

AGG Aggressiveness % (throws where a defender was within 1 yard)

Y/A = Yards/Attempt

WEEK	CAY	IAY	AGG
1 	4.7	8.30	26.7
2 	2.9	7.30	18.5
3 	4.4	5.20	3.2
7 	3.3	6.70	5.6
8 	6.7	8.20	22.9
9 	6.9	10.2	14.3
10	7.7	10.1	38.9
11	3.7	7.00	20.9
12	6.1	10.2	22
13	8.0	8.70	21.1
14	3.6	6.40	25.8

2018	6.00	8.8	17.7	7.4
2019	5.17	7.9	17.9	6.2

My only other reaction, having re-watched most of week 1 was that the 8.3 IAY is probably a little misleading because so many throws were pure throw away's where the coverage was leaving nothing open. The times he was sailing it by 5 yards was probably the best choice.

[minnesotacubsfan]

And he's thrown 5 INTs in his last 4 games after throwing 3 in his first 7 games. And that's fine...I'd much rather have him throwing downfield and risking the occasional INT than having him throwing dump passes to Cohen for 3 yards all game.

I cannot get on board with this theory, that admittedly has been shared by many others. Mitch was throwing deep before, he wasn't intercepted becuase he'd miss everybody by 5 yards. He also had quite a few "should have been" INTs, and plenty of them on shorter passes as well. The INT last night was really bad. He was not pressured, had plenty of time to get rid of the ball, and should have just thrown it away (although I suspect the film will show he had some open receivers earlier). He's lucky the defense stepped up after Dallas started with a precision drive.

 

He did play great and has rebounded nicely, but I am not for "the interceptions means he's trying more" mentality. His INTs are from bad decisions.

 

I get that its hard to watch him throw that int last night when it looked like such a glaring mental mistake, but he bounced back so well (throwing 3 td's and running for 1) that its hard for me to hold it against him. It was also picked at the 1/2 yard line with the DB barely getting 2 feet down, and ultimately ended up with no points for the Cowboys.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I could be way off, but I feel like even if Mitch was playing fine/good to great all season a higher end backup would be brought in for next year no matter what with Daniel's contract is up, you don't need an expert in the playbook as the backup anymore and with Mitch missing time in each of the last two seasons and with his style of play (when he runs like last night).

 

A strong finish by Mitch might keep them from a 2nd round QB, which might not be a bad thing.

 

Iit would be the best outcome, and why I cheer on Mitch. We have other needs, like TACKLE

We need more viable edge rushers badly. Leno and Massie are locked in with their salaries already. I'd prefer a vet pickup there. The draft class is strong at edge and we could get something really nice to complement Mack. I've seen enough of Floyd to know that he is an utter JAG.

 

Keep grooming Bars and hope he can supplant Massie next year at some point.

 

edge was the other position of need I was thinking about, but if we are looking at replacing Massie with a project, I want more options. Also, Leno sucks, contract be damned. That guy gets blown up nearly every damn play.

[David]

[raw]

 

I get that its hard to watch him throw that int last night when it looked like such a glaring mental mistake, but he bounced back so well (throwing 3 td's and running for 1) that its hard for me to hold it against him. It was also picked at the 1/2 yard line with the DB barely getting 2 feet down, and ultimately ended up with no points for the Cowboys.

 

It also took at least 3 points off the board (2nd & 7, from the 19) when the team was down 7, after allowing several 3rd down conversions on the previous drive while losing its best ILB.

 

You can hold the INT against him while still acknowledging he played well.

 

I'm willing to excuse some bad throws/INTs, but rarely are they ok in the red zone.

 

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[minnesotacubsfan]

 

I get that its hard to watch him throw that int last night when it looked like such a glaring mental mistake, but he bounced back so well (throwing 3 td's and running for 1) that its hard for me to hold it against him. It was also picked at the 1/2 yard line with the DB barely getting 2 feet down, and ultimately ended up with no points for the Cowboys.

 

It also took at least 3 points off the board (2nd & 7, from the 19) when the team was down 7, after allowing several 3rd down conversions on the previous drive while losing its best ILB.

 

You can hold the INT against him while still acknowledging he played well.

 

I'm willing to excuse some bad throws/INTs, but rarely are they ok in the red zone.

 

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where are you getting 3 points? With Piniero, that's not a given

[raw]

 

Iit would be the best outcome, and why I cheer on Mitch. We have other needs, like TACKLE

We need more viable edge rushers badly. Leno and Massie are locked in with their salaries already. I'd prefer a vet pickup there. The draft class is strong at edge and we could get something really nice to complement Mack. I've seen enough of Floyd to know that he is an utter JAG.

 

Keep grooming Bars and hope he can supplant Massie next year at some point.

 

edge was the other position of need I was thinking about, but if we are looking at replacing Massie with a project, I want more options. Also, Leno sucks, contract be damned. That guy gets blown up nearly every damn play.

This is actually not true. He's rated as the 4th most effective pass blocker in the league.

 

https://twitter.com/jennifermleno/status/1199373754494787585?s=19

 

And eye test, he's the best run blocker on the team. Montgomery had a lot of success going left last night. Trubisky's TD featured him as the key block.

 

I think his pass blocking looks worse because he does look bad when giving up sacks/pressure. He flat out gets trashed on his bad plays, but they are actually pretty few and far between overall.

 

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[minnesotacubsfan]

thats STUNNING

 

I stand corrected

[raw]

 

I get that its hard to watch him throw that int last night when it looked like such a glaring mental mistake, but he bounced back so well (throwing 3 td's and running for 1) that its hard for me to hold it against him. It was also picked at the 1/2 yard line with the DB barely getting 2 feet down, and ultimately ended up with no points for the Cowboys.

 

It also took at least 3 points off the board (2nd & 7, from the 19) when the team was down 7, after allowing several 3rd down conversions on the previous drive while losing its best ILB.

 

You can hold the INT against him while still acknowledging he played well.

 

I'm willing to excuse some bad throws/INTs, but rarely are they ok in the red zone.

 

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

 

where are you getting 3 points? With Piniero, that's not a given

Should have said "at least a shot at 3 points". No FG is a given anymore for basically anyone. But every NFL team has every right to expect at least 3 points inside the 20. I'd rather have a chance at points than turning the ball over.

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bears needs for next offseason.

 

Mandatory (players is either gone by FA or a certain cut): S, ILB, TE, interior OL), depth TE, depth ILB, depth DL, QB2.

 

Positions you'd like to upgrade or might see a current starter become a cap casualty: OLB, CB, WR3 (I'd put RB2 here but I know most people wouldn't. I'd love a normal, rotational back to split time with Montgomery and let Cohen focus on returns, long downs and gimmick plays).

 

Positions you'd upgrade in a perfect world but there's almost no chance you can afford it via draft capital or cap space, given how long the above list is: OT, QB1

 

I don't see either Massie or Leno going anywhere.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I see that Pass Block Win rate stat posted a lot of places to defend Leno. Just because someone comes up with some unverifiable list of numbers doesn’t mean we have to believe it.

 

But he isn’t terrible in pass blocking. Not great, but not terrible. It’s run blocking where he becomes completely worthless.

[jersey cubs fan]

And he's thrown 5 INTs in his last 4 games after throwing 3 in his first 7 games. And that's fine...I'd much rather have him throwing downfield and risking the occasional INT than having him throwing dump passes to Cohen for 3 yards all game.

I cannot get on board with this theory, that admittedly has been shared by many others. Mitch was throwing deep before, he wasn't intercepted becuase he'd miss everybody by 5 yards. He also had quite a few "should have been" INTs, and plenty of them on shorter passes as well. The INT last night was really bad. He was not pressured, had plenty of time to get rid of the ball, and should have just thrown it away (although I suspect the film will show he had some open receivers earlier). He's lucky the defense stepped up after Dallas started with a precision drive.

 

He did play great and has rebounded nicely, but I am not for "the interceptions means he's trying more" mentality. His INTs are from bad decisions.

 

I get that its hard to watch him throw that int last night when it looked like such a glaring mental mistake, but he bounced back so well (throwing 3 td's and running for 1) that its hard for me to hold it against him. It was also picked at the 1/2 yard line with the DB barely getting 2 feet down, and ultimately ended up with no points for the Cowboys.

Kind of the reason why I said he played great and bounced back nicely.

[raw]

Bears needs for next offseason.

 

Mandatory (players is either gone by FA or a certain cut): S, ILB, TE, interior OL), depth TE, depth ILB, depth DL, QB2.

 

Positions you'd like to upgrade or might see a current starter become a cap casualty: OLB, CB, WR3 (I'd put RB2 here but I know most people wouldn't. I'd love a normal, rotational back to split time with Montgomery and let Cohen focus on returns, long downs and gimmick plays).

 

Positions you'd upgrade in a perfect world but there's almost no chance you can afford it via draft capital or cap space, given how long the above list is: OT, QB1

 

I don't see either Massie or Leno going anywhere.

 

Qb- Trubisky. Add a better backup QB, that is enough of a threat to push Trubisky, but not so much of one to cost $10M/year.

RB- Montgomery, Cohen. Bring Nall back, because he's cheap. But I'd also like an actual RB. If Monty goes down, ugh. Probably use a very late pick here again.

WR- Robinson, Miller, Wims, Ridley, Patterson. Cut Gabriel and save some money. Would like to replace his speed somehow though. Vet FA should do.

TE- I'd actually bring back Burton (not big money savings to cut) and Shaheen (camp body at worst). Holtz, Horstead, Raymond compete for spots. Love to use one of the 2nds and get a top 2-3 TE in the draft. But may be able to wait for mid rounds.

OL- Whitehair, Daniels, Leno and Massie aren't going anywhere for $$ reasons. I'd spend big on a RG. Upgrading OL is the easiest, most realistic way to upgrade this roster. Better OL = better pass protection, better run game. Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney, Andrus Peat big names potentially available this offseason.

 

DL- Only stand to lose Black Nick. Should be cheap enough to re-sign. If not, still have Goldman, Hicks, RRH (who is a RFA), Nichols, and others at back of roster and practice squad.

ILB- Smith. I'd see who takes the cheapest contract between Trevathan and Haha. Kwitkoski a backup plan here. Josh Woods and Joel Igieybuniwe are long-shot athletes that I like, but maybe special teamers only.....need a vet here if no Trevathan.

OLB- Mack, Floyd. I know a lot of people don't want to pay Floyd 13M for that 5th year option next year, but may not have a choice. Upgrade at pass rusher would be similar in cost to Floyd. And still need depth. Not sure what to do here. Too many other needs for a high draft pick here. Too much money spent on the position to justify another FA.

CB- I think Prince gets cut w/ 13M price tag. Toliver, Skrine, Shelley, and hopefully a high draft pick compete opposite of Fuller and for slot.

S- Jackson, and the rest are FAs. I'd try to re-sign Haha. If not, I'd take Bush back for cheap. Maybe both, but Bush may want a chance to get more PT if Haha is back. Vet FA and late draft pick likely here.

[David]

[minnesotacubsfan]

pee-AIR LOO-eee

 

and

 

GRIP it and RIP IT

 

just because

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZysEDVgDCA