Willson's Framing

[Tim]

Is it really that bad?

 

I know that BP has him rated awfully. But by Statcorner he's...good in 2019. The methods for evaluation vary wildly, but Statcorner's is actually fairly straightforward. Here are the factors:

 

- number of pitches called balls that statcast says are strikes (strikes gained)

- number of pitches called strikes that statcast says are balls (strikes lost)

 

Compare those to the expected performance with an average catcher and figure out the net strikes gained or lost. It is a fairly objective method for rating framing.

 

Willson was pretty good in 2016; he was absolutely awful in 2017; he was improved but still bad in 2018. Last year he was well above average, though still well short of elite.

 

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I bring this up because while Willson has been up and down by this measure. JT Realmuto was consistently dreadful - until last year. And the Cubs just hired the guy given credit for transforming JTR from probably the worst (consistently) performing catcher into one well above average.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/cubs-to-hire-craig-driver-as-first-basecatching-coach.html

 

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Perhaps the Cubs would have done this anyway. But it could also signal that they're not getting the offers they're hoping for in return for Contreras and want to give him the best chance to succeed.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It is bad.

 

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

 

2017: -3, -9, +4

2018: -18, -18, -13

2019: -9, -9, +4

 

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

[Backtobanks]

Is it really that bad?

 

I know that BP has him rated awfully. But by Statcorner he's...good in 2019. The methods for evaluation vary wildly, but Statcorner's is actually fairly straightforward. Here are the factors:

 

- number of pitches called balls that statcast says are strikes (strikes gained)

- number of pitches called strikes that statcast says are balls (strikes lost)

 

 

Using this criteria, we should compare him to most umpires.

[Tim]

It is bad.

 

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

 

2017: -3, -9, +4

2018: -18, -18, -13

2019: -9, -9, +4

 

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.

[Bertz]

I think he's clearly bad, but I think how well that predicts how bad he'll be going forward is the question. We've seen guys like JT Realmuto, Alex Avila, and Jason Castro go from very bad to very good in a single offseason over the past several years. We've also seen the opposite happen with guys like Lucroy, though age is often a viable explanation for many of those.

 

Personally, my guess is that not enough credit is attributed to the pitchers. Like with Willson for instance, I'd love to see his numbers from the last two years pitching to Yu or Chatwood vs everybody else.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It is bad.

 

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

 

2017: -3, -9, +4

2018: -18, -18, -13

2019: -9, -9, +4

 

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/25514/moving-beyond-wowy-a-mixed-approach-to-measuring-catcher-framing/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/

[Tim]

It is bad.

 

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

 

2017: -3, -9, +4

2018: -18, -18, -13

2019: -9, -9, +4

 

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/25514/moving-beyond-wowy-a-mixed-approach-to-measuring-catcher-framing/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/

Thanks - that helped a lot.

 

There's a lot more sophistication in the fangraphs and bp approaches, but that doesn't necessarily make them more accurate. WOWY, in particular, is subject to small sample impacts no matter how much it is downplayed in the bp article. They're also making big assumptions of linearity in their modeling for things that do not intuitively (to me, at least) seem linear.

 

I'm still not sure how good the systems are since there's so much inconsistency in year to year results for individual catchers.

[Tim]

Still, it's interesting that they brought in the guy that helped JTR, though. Not sure if that says anything about their intentions with Willson or not.

[Omar]

maybe Cubs can hire Miguel Montero as framing coach

[sneakypower]

vision issues?

 

bc there's no i in Wllson

[mul21]

vision issues?

 

bc there's no i in Wllson

 

Oh come on, how do you screw that up? There's only one I in Willson.

[Bertz]

[We Got The Whole 9]

Thats really amazing. Kudos to WillCo.

 

Now if he could just make that type of drastic improvement in launch angle. More of those hard hit balls would find the seats.

[Bertz]