Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?

 

Brailyn

 

Maybe Keegan Thompson or Justin Steele but I think injuries have sapped any meaningful chance of them starting in the majors.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I finally saw BA's top 30, and was somewhat surprised/curious.

 

They have Chris Clarke at #14, much to my surprise, and ahead of McAvene. McAvene was drafted a round earlier, has seemingly a big arm and some high-end stuff, and he pitched very well in his brief pro debut. (McAvene was 20K/4BB/12.2IP, encouraging numbers.) Clarke's numbers were excellent, too (26K/4BB/20IP), but I don't recall him getting as extensive BA attention pre or after draft, so I woudn't have expected BA to have heard enough buzz about him to have him leapfrog McAvene.

 

tom or others, what kind of comments did they have about Clarke? After bombing the Lange/Little draft, it would be so awesome if they ended up with a really good draft that produced several successful and significant prospects.

 

Clarke has 4-seam and sinker, both low-to-mid 90s plus a spike curve which was one of the best in the draft. Has the makings of a back-end rotation piece or a late inning reliever.

[Regular Show]

From the latest Klaw chat:

 

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.

[craig]

...Clarke has 4-seam and sinker, both low-to-mid 90s plus a spike curve which was one of the best in the draft. Has the makings of a back-end rotation piece or a late inning reliever.

 

Thanks, Cal, that sounds interesting. One of the reasons I'm interested in Clarke is that he's still only 21. Sometimes the tall long guys haven't fully optimized their deliveries at age 21, so might be hypothetical projection left. But his control has been good, which is unusual for the 6'7" guys at his age. Hopefully his stuff will continue to improve some, and his command, and he'll end up being better than back-end starter. Given how little he's pitched in college, I'd imagine the Cubs might be kinda patient with him and won't move him too quickly. On the other hand, if he's coordinated and can repeat his delivery enough to be a low-walks guy already, maybe he'll move along faster than I anticipate...

[craig]

Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?

 

Brailyn

 

Maybe Keegan Thompson or Justin Steele but I think injuries have sapped any meaningful chance of them starting in the majors.

 

Heh heh, maybe Chatwood will be good and solid, and the Cubs will do a mid-year extension on him? :):)

[craig]

Or maybe Chatwood will be so good and so solid that the Cubs will offer the 1-year contract, and get a draft pick back if they don't keep him?

 

Spring training. Why not be super optimistic, yes?

[MidoreX]

From the latest Klaw chat:

 

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.

 

Only 2 Cubs... Davis at 55 and Marquez at 80

[Bertz]

I still would have expected Nico to make the list, but not totally surprising that neither he nor Amaya did given that Keith weights upside and loud tools even more than most. Taken straight from the intro:

 

I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

[Regular Show]

From the latest Klaw chat:

 

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.

 

Only 2 Cubs... Davis at 55 and Marquez at 80

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1232086337441890304[/tweet]

 

Yeah, I'm studying the list and I disagree with a good amount of it. I don't normally have too many problems with his list, but this year seems different:

 

⚫ Adley Rutschman is way too low (#10) and he has a strong case to be the #1 prospect in MLB. He has an MVP-caliber upside with a stronger chance to reach it than most players with that high a ceiling.

 

⚫ Casey Mize is a weird case. If he's fully healthy and throwing the ball with no problems then he's too low on the list. If he's injured or not throwing at 100% then he should probably be lower.

 

⚫ I think Jesus Luzardo should be higher. I really like him and think he'll develop into an ace.

 

⚫ Keith Law is definitely the high guy on Corbin Carroll lol. We'll see about that ranking...

 

⚫ I like what he wrote about Alec Bohm and I agree with that assessment.

 

⚫ Joey Bart is too high on the list.

 

⚫ Brennen Davis is too high on his list. I'm still skeptical about the hit tool, but the swing is better now.

 

⚫ Marco Luciano is too low and he'll finish very high on Top 100 lists at the end of this upcoming season.

 

⚫ Brailyn Marquez is too low on his list and I'm very high on him. I think he takes a big step forward this year.

 

⚫ Obviously, I'm very happy with his writeup on Braden Shewmake and agree with his take:

 

Shewmake is trying to do something we seldom see in pro ball — move to shortstop from another position as a player drafted out of college. Paul DeJong did it, but he’s the only major-league shortstop to do so in the last five years. Shewmake was a good defensive third baseman at Texas A&M with a promising hit tool, leading Atlanta to take him with the 21st overall pick in June, but their decision to move him to a more difficult position was a surprise — and the early returns are fantastic, as opposing scouts who saw him think he can stay there. His approach now is geared towards contact, but he has 60 raw power and the thinking is that he can get to that in time as he adjusts to pro ball. Atlanta sent him right to Low-A Rome out of the draft, and he responded by hitting .318/.389/.473 with just a 12.8 percent strikeout rate, incredibly impressive for a player who had just spent all spring hitting with a tin bat against college pitching. He might end up an absolute steal between his promise of future plus defense at short and the outside chance he gets to that plus raw power in games.

 

I'm not sure if I'd rather have Shewmake over Hoerner or have him ranked higher though? I don't know about that and I guess how much power (game power) they develop will be the key difference. I think Shewmake is better defensively at SS and is capable of making more throws/plays. Honestly, I'm growing more intrigued with just shifting Hoerner to CF and letting him play there the majority of the time. Hoerner is definitely more versatile. I believe most teams would have Hoerner ranked higher than Shewmake, but it's probably pretty close now.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1232284019016032257[/tweet]

Nico Hoerner didn't make this list either lol.

 

I'm a big fan of Noah Song as well, but his unique situation makes his pitching development kinda murky. He has a special arm and I wish the Cubs drafted him.

[Regular Show]

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He's starting to release his prospect lists for each team. We might get the Cubs prospect list for Fangraphs and The Athletic around the same time.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law has his MLB top farms list. Has the Cubs at 28 with only Washington and Milwaukee below them. He's the only one who hasn't ranked them in the 15-22 range this year.

 

Some other rankings that don't match the general consensus like Detroit at 19 and Oakland at 26 (too low) and he's much higher than most on NYY at 6 and the Cardinals at 9.

[Regular Show]

Keith Law has his MLB top farms list. Has the Cubs at 28 with only Washington and Milwaukee below him. He's the only one who hasn't ranked them in the 15-22 range this year.

 

Some other rankings that don't match the general consensus like Detroit at 19 and Oakland at 26 (too low) and he's much higher than most on NYY at 6 and the Cardinals at 9.

 

Yeah, it's weird he has the Yankees' system so high. I knew the Cubs' system would rank pretty low on his list, but not quite this low and I disagree with that ranking. I would place it around 20th or maybe a little back of there... We know he's down on Nico Hoerner and Miguel Amaya, and doesn't have them on his Top 100 prospect list.

 

The second episode of his podcast is out and he discusses his farm system rankings (I haven't listened to it yet). The NL Central lists comes out on Wednesday so we'll get to see his thoughts on the Cubs prospects pretty soon.

 

EDIT: Yeah, so Keith Law doesn't actually discuss his farm system rankings in the second episode of his podcast lol. Mainly just talks about the #1 farm system (TB Rays) on his list and answers some questions at the end.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Regular Show

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1235198941274218496[/tweet]

The list is weird with some big omissions like Kevin Made and Ronnier Quintero. I know he's ranked 20th on his list, but people inside (and outside) the Cubs organization are not that high on Oscar De La Cruz. That was a dumb choice and I would've place DJ Herz on the list somewhere.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1235198941274218496[/tweet]

The list is weird with some big omissions like Kevin Made and Ronnier Quintero. I know he's ranked 20th on his list, but people inside (and outside) the Cubs organization are not that high on Oscar De La Cruz. That was a dumb choice and I would've place DJ Herz on the list somewhere.

 

Strumpf at 17 is pretty wild too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline's top 30 Cubs prospects:

 

[Bertz]

MLB's looks closer to what I would consider "right." That's understandable, the blessing and the curse of Keith Law's work is that he's just one dude, so he's inherently going to be more outlier-y.

 

Also, Jim Callis is the best at this and has been for a long time, so that doesn't hurt.

[craig]

...the blessing and the curse of Keith Law's work is that he's just one dude....

 

In processing his input, it means more to me for guys that he's seen, maybe a lot, than guys he hasn't. That Made and Quintero and Herz aren't included, I don't care at all. He's never seen those guys, so his lack of appreciation for them doesn't bother me. **IF** they turn out to be talented, then when they get far enough for him to see them, he'll probably appreciate them then.

 

Strumpf, Alzolay, Amaya, those are guys he HAS seen, probably more than once. So the observation that Alzolay's fastball is "flat", or that Strumf has some mechanical issues with his swing that will be problematic if unfixed, those may be good observations that are worth taking seriously.

 

But yeah, his rankings are often impacted by small-sample or dated info. He mentioned having watched McAvene once, last spring. Not clear that the "effort" that he saw in the delivery (I don't doubt his observation...) was true that time, but might not be there every day, and might not persist after some developmental adjustments.

 

Likewise he alludes to Riley Thompson hitting 100 out of pen and up to 97 in rotation. That seems like info from 2-3 springs ago. Reports from this year seemed to have good velocity, but mostly low-90's, nothing extraordinary. (Although whatever; I'm sure any guy who normally works 91-94 will unleash a fluke 97 once in a while! But in a scouting report, listing 100-in-relief-97-in-rotation kinda suggests big velocity...)

[Regular Show]

MLB's looks closer to what I would consider "right." That's understandable, the blessing and the curse of Keith Law's work is that he's just one dude, so he's inherently going to be more outlier-y.

 

Also, Jim Callis is the best at this and has been for a long time, so that doesn't hurt.

 

I think Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel are better evaluators of talent and actual scouts so I wouldn't say he's the best at this lol. Jim Callis is very good and has good sources and I trust him, but Eric and Kiley are better...

 

MLB's list is very good and I agree with most of it.

[Regular Show]

Speaking of Kiley McDaniel:

 

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It'll be interesting to compare the Top 100 list on Fangraphs against Kiley's list on ESPN. They seem pretty similar at the top of the lists, but vary towards the bottom. I think I prefer Kiley's list the best?

 

Nico Hoerner, Miguel Amaya and Brennen Davis all made his list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Aramis Ademan is Pipeline’s Cubs’ 31st prospect.

 

[Regular Show]

Aramis Ademan is Pipeline’s Cubs’ 31st prospect.

 

 

I'm not a big fan of Aramis Ademan and the Cubs probably pushed him too fast...

[Donzo]

Speaking of Ademan getting bigger, looks like it finally happened:

 

 

 

Yeah, he doesn't have that teenager scrawniness to him now. We'll see if it pays off.

[Regular Show]

Great Q&A session with Jim Callis a couple days ago:

 

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[Donzo]

Agreed, more nice to see than anything else right now. Longenhagen had mad a comment about hearing Ademan was out of shape for instructs, but in that BP he looked more like another Best Shape of His Life guy

 

Yeah, he certainly looked fit... The video also shows Roedner looking like he's lost his teenage scrawniness, too. He looked a little jacked.

 

For the other guy in the video, some coach or something, we kinda get a picture of what Schwarber would have looked like if he gained 25 lbs rather than losing it a couple years ago... 8-)