Bears at Rams SNF on NBC 7:20 PM

[WrigleyField 22]

Can they cut Massie and Leno?

Save about 3M to cut Leno. Or a bit more as a post June 1 cut.

 

Massie is a Post June 1 cut only. His structure is a bit different though and his dead cap is almost all gone after this offseason. Leno is more signing bonus heavy so the dead cap lingers.

 

Bears repeating for Floyd, but his 13M is only guaranteed for injury. They could add all that space back.

[WrigleyField 22]

Can they cut Massie and Leno?

 

On principle because they suck? Yes.

 

To save cap space? No, they both have some dead cap hit. Cutting Massie only saves you $2.9m and cutting Leno actually costs you $2.5m more.

FYI, you flipped these guys. Other way around, but right numbers.

[WrigleyField 22]

Ryan Pace isn't getting another shot at the coaching hire. And I don't think ownership wants to re-spin the "every 2 years we get somebody new plan" wheel.

No I don't think Pace should or will get another HC hire.

 

I'd guess ownership will be conservative and give both guys another year at the helm. So if that's what you're factoring into the 3-3 years that makes sense, but it shouldn't take 2-3 years because Pace and Nagy probably shouldn't be back at this point, IMO.

 

Even if they do an overhaul this offseason, the next group isn't going to try and patch things with the current roster. They'll have an opportunity to tear it down and start fresh, which makes the 2-3 years a possible 4.

Andy Reid 2012-13 in KC is a great recent example of not doing that. Going and grabbing Alex Smith obviously was a pretty big part of that immediate turnaround but they didn't just totally take the axe to the roster, and to the extent they did get their own guys in they did enough in year 1 to see an immediate playoff birth. Pioli, like Pace, hadn't kept the cupboard totally bare, it was just flawed, and it started with the coaching up top (that team was 2-14 and actually had their pick, which obviously helped, but they used it on a OT, not like they went and drafted an offense changing QB or RB who just totally changed the complexion of what they'd otherwise have done..seems like FA was modest for them too .)

 

If a new QB to the tune of pre 2013 Alex Smith is a key component of a quick turnaround, I don't think thats a unrealistically lofty goal for a new leadership group.

[jersey cubs fan]

Andy Reid 2012-13 in KC is a great recent example of not doing that. Going and grabbing Alex Smith obviously was a pretty big part of that immediate turnaround but they didn't just totally take the axe to the roster, and to the extent they did get their own guys in they did enough in year 1 to see an immediate playoff birth. Pioli, like Pace, hadn't kept the cupboard totally bare, it was just flawed, and it started with the coaching up top (that team was 2-14 and actually had their pick, which obviously helped, but they used it on a OT, not like they went and drafted an offense changing QB or RB who just totally changed the complexion of what they'd otherwise have done..seems like FA was modest for them too .)

 

If a new QB to the tune of pre 2013 Alex Smith is a key component of a quick turnaround, I don't think thats a unrealistically lofty goal for a new leadership group.

A brand new QB and a top of the first found pick are two very key ingredients that the Bears will not have access to.

[WrigleyField 22]

Andy Reid 2012-13 in KC is a great recent example of not doing that. Going and grabbing Alex Smith obviously was a pretty big part of that immediate turnaround but they didn't just totally take the axe to the roster, and to the extent they did get their own guys in they did enough in year 1 to see an immediate playoff birth. Pioli, like Pace, hadn't kept the cupboard totally bare, it was just flawed, and it started with the coaching up top (that team was 2-14 and actually had their pick, which obviously helped, but they used it on a OT, not like they went and drafted an offense changing QB or RB who just totally changed the complexion of what they'd otherwise have done..seems like FA was modest for them too .)

 

If a new QB to the tune of pre 2013 Alex Smith is a key component of a quick turnaround, I don't think thats a unrealistically lofty goal for a new leadership group.

A brand new QB and a top of the first found pick are two very key ingredients that the Bears will not have access to.

The Bears will have access to a new QB. Not gonna be a top 5 pick, but plenty of teams have turned it around without picking a top 5 QB.

 

The lack of a first round let sucks and all, but this team is worlds ahead of where Pace picked it up from where everyone was like, "gotta give the guy a few years". If a new HC/GM combo needs 4 years that combo sucks.

[WrigleyField 22]

Give Marcus Mariota a shot, 2020 Bears!

Nah, thanks.

[Soul]

Ryan Pace isn't getting another shot at the coaching hire. And I don't think ownership wants to re-spin the "every 2 years we get somebody new plan" wheel.

No I don't think Pace should or will get another HC hire.

 

I'd guess ownership will be conservative and give both guys another year at the helm. So if that's what you're factoring into the 3-3 years that makes sense, but it shouldn't take 2-3 years because Pace and Nagy probably shouldn't be back at this point, IMO.

 

Even if they do an overhaul this offseason, the next group isn't going to try and patch things with the current roster. They'll have an opportunity to tear it down and start fresh, which makes the 2-3 years a possible 4.

 

[jersey cubs fan]

The Bears will have access to a new QB. Not gonna be a top 5 pick, but plenty of teams have turned it around without picking a top 5 QB.

 

They really won't. It's not just about a lack of top 5 QB, it's about having to settle for a 2nd round QB or take a flyer on some other team's castoff. They'd probably be much better off drafting offensive line with the first five picks they still have in 2020* and force Mitch to play through whatever injuries he gets before drafting the best available QB in 2021.

 

Not to mention, there isn't an Andy Reid available to run this turnaround.

[WrigleyField 22]

The Bears will have access to a new QB. Not gonna be a top 5 pick, but plenty of teams have turned it around without picking a top 5 QB.

 

They really won't. It's not just about a lack of top 5 QB, it's about having to settle for a 2nd round QB or take a flyer on some other team's castoff. They'd probably be much better off drafting offensive line with the first five picks they still have in 2020* and force Mitch to play through whatever injuries he gets before drafting the best available QB in 2021.

 

Not to mention, there isn't an Andy Reid available to run this turnaround.

Some other teams castoff like Alex Smith in 2013?

 

We can call the success odds of that whatever we want because I know targeting a Alex Smith turnaround isn't great odds, but there's a decent basis to work with in the current roster. Whether it's a journeyman vet, a failed castoff with a second chance, a day 2 pick, or hell, even settling Mitch down enough to hold the fort for 1 year, the next GM/coach duo better be looking at a quick 1-2 year turnaround back into PO contention. This isnt a roster worthy of blowing up.

[jersey cubs fan]

We can call the success odds of that whatever we want because I know targeting a Alex Smith turnaround isn't great odds, but there's a decent basis to work with in the current roster.

 

Yes, a castoff like Alex Smith plus Andy Reid plus a 1st round pick.

 

The Bears are not in the situation KC was in. The Bears will not have an Andy Reid to pull that off.

 

They are better off trying to grow with the guys they have and hope Nagy learns from mistakes and together with Pace they get the right guy in 2021. Pace made the team better than it was, Nagy got the most out of them last year. There is something there with this group. They need to fix the offensive line and then draft a QB in 2021.

[WrigleyField 22]

We can call the success odds of that whatever we want because I know targeting a Alex Smith turnaround isn't great odds, but there's a decent basis to work with in the current roster.

 

Yes, a castoff like Alex Smith plus Andy Reid plus a 1st round pick.

 

The Bears are not in the situation KC was in. The Bears will not have an Andy Reid to pull that off.

 

They are better off trying to grow with the guys they have and hope Nagy learns from mistakes and together with Pace they get the right guy in 2021. Pace made the team better than it was, Nagy got the most out of them last year. There is something there with this group. They need to fix the offensive line and then draft a QB in 2021.

I just don't think Nagy is the guy to lead the team anymore. Since I don't think they'll move on from him, I'll hope 2019 is the outlier and not 2018, but the best case scenario seems like he's a good HC who will need to hire good OCs to run his system, which obviously wasn't the purpose of hiring an offensive minded HC.

[gflore34]

We can call the success odds of that whatever we want because I know targeting a Alex Smith turnaround isn't great odds, but there's a decent basis to work with in the current roster.

 

Yes, a castoff like Alex Smith plus Andy Reid plus a 1st round pick.

 

The Bears are not in the situation KC was in. The Bears will not have an Andy Reid to pull that off.

 

They are better off trying to grow with the guys they have and hope Nagy learns from mistakes and together with Pace they get the right guy in 2021. Pace made the team better than it was, Nagy got the most out of them last year. There is something there with this group. They need to fix the offensive line and then draft a QB in 2021.

I just don't think Nagy is the guy to lead the team anymore. Since I don't think they'll move on from him, I'll hope 2019 is the outlier and not 2018, but the best case scenario seems like he's a good HC who will need to hire good OCs to run his system, which obviously wasn't the purpose of hiring an offensive minded HC.

 

It's got to a new QB in 2020, with Mitch as the backup, 3rd string whatever. Because what if Nagy, or someone else, finally figures out how to utilize Mitch' strengths, the Bears have a good 2020, make the playoffs. etc.? Somewhat of false positive, they'll probably extend Mitch and the Bears will be in the same boat as the Rams with Goff - not good.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It's got to a new QB in 2020, with Mitch as the backup, 3rd string whatever. Because what if Nagy, or someone else, finally figures out how to utilize Mitch' strengths, the Bears have a good 2020, make the playoffs. etc......

 

what?

[WrigleyField 22]

It's got to a new QB in 2020, with Mitch as the backup, 3rd string whatever. Because what if Nagy, or someone else, finally figures out how to utilize Mitch' strengths, the Bears have a good 2020, make the playoffs. etc......

 

what?

I think he's worried if the Bears turn it around with Mitch they'll give him a dumb extension.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It's got to a new QB in 2020, with Mitch as the backup, 3rd string whatever. Because what if Nagy, or someone else, finally figures out how to utilize Mitch' strengths, the Bears have a good 2020, make the playoffs. etc......

 

what?

I think he's worried if the Bears turn it around with Mitch they'll give him a dumb extension.

 

why would that be bad, assuming Mitch turns it around ala Alex Smith?? Should we just give him to the Bengals once he's figured it out?

[WrigleyField 22]

 

what?

I think he's worried if the Bears turn it around with Mitch they'll give him a dumb extension.

 

why would that be bad, assuming Mitch turns it around ala Alex Smith?? Should we just give him to the Bengals once he's figured it out?

It really depends on what that hypothetical would mean.

 

If Mitch of 2018 were to be his ceiling, that's a QB who you'd really struggle to build a team around with a giant extension. But they could have a "turnaround" year like that and fool people, when really 2018 Mitch as a ceiling isn't enough. He could settle into just being, like most average QBs, very inconsistent and not a true difference maker.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think he's worried if the Bears turn it around with Mitch they'll give him a dumb extension.

 

why would that be bad, assuming Mitch turns it around ala Alex Smith?? Should we just give him to the Bengals once he's figured it out?

It really depends on what that hypothetical would mean.

 

If Mitch of 2018 were to be his ceiling, that's a QB who you'd really struggle to build a team around with a giant extension. But they could have a "turnaround" year like that and fool people, when really 2018 Mitch as a ceiling isn't enough. He could settle into just being, like most average QBs, very inconsistent and not a true difference maker.

 

Let the Bears pay the Bears tax.

 

I'll pay the playoff tax.

 

 

If they manage to go on a 2020 playoff run with Mitch as Qb, odds are he'd have significantly improved. Pace and Nagy would have a lot of data points on Mitch by then and can make the decision about the contract. It's their future they are playing with at that point, and they could still decide to go QB in the draft.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The world is coming around on my "Bears are doooooomed" theory way too quickly, it's not as fun anymore.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

why would that be bad, assuming Mitch turns it around ala Alex Smith?? Should we just give him to the Bengals once he's figured it out?

It really depends on what that hypothetical would mean.

 

If Mitch of 2018 were to be his ceiling, that's a QB who you'd really struggle to build a team around with a giant extension. But they could have a "turnaround" year like that and fool people, when really 2018 Mitch as a ceiling isn't enough. He could settle into just being, like most average QBs, very inconsistent and not a true difference maker.

 

Let the Bears pay the Bears tax.

 

I'll pay the playoff tax.

 

 

If they manage to go on a 2020 playoff run with Mitch as Qb, odds are he'd have significantly improved. Pace and Nagy would have a lot of data points on Mitch by then and can make the decision about the contract. It's their future they are playing with at that point, and they could still decide to go QB in the draft.

Let's just say he plays out this year at the statistical pace he has since the Chargers game. That would put him as a 81.9 passer for the year, which would be like a bottom 3 passer.

 

Now let's say in 2020, he miraculously makes it back up to 2018 play, and even with some modest gains. The Bears scoring O and D rank 10th and 1st respectively (and lets say the scoring isn't heavily Defense inflated like 2018's 9th place ranking was). They go 13-3, get the bye and win the divisional round, but lose in the NFC Championship.

 

Mitch puts up this stat line for 2020, included with career numbers. Again, modest gains from 2018, but an overall more successful offense. Lets say is the same general strengths and issues as 2018, just more consistent.

 

Rk	 Cmp	 Att	 Yds  TD Int  Cmp%	 Rate	 Y/A
2017	196	330	2193	7	 7	59%	77.5	6.65
2018	289	434	3223	24	12  67%	95.4	7.43
2019	286	465	2692	15	7	62%	81.9	5.79
2020	357	527	3929	25	8	68%	99.1	7.46
Career 1128	1756	12037	71	34	64%	89.6	6.85

 

Is that a QB you sign to a long deal or not?

 

Luckily, in this incredibly optimistic scenario they'd have the option of two franchise tags.. which I think would be the route they'd be best served with at that point. But I' could see the concern the Bears would extend him and he'd continue to be inconsistent, and now expensive to boot.

 

FWIW- the 2020 I described is stripped straight from the 2017 Vikings with Keenum starting 14 games and Bradford 2. They obviously moved on, with mixed results to show for it with Cousins at the helm, but Keenum went on to put up a 81.2 passer rating the next year and currently sits at 94.8 this year, which is probably where his year ends now that Haskins has been handed the reigns.

Edited November 19, 2019 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

[

If they manage to go on a 2020 playoff run with Mitch as Qb, odds are he'd have significantly improved. Pace and Nagy would have a lot of data points on Mitch by then and can make the decision about the contract. It's their future they are playing with at that point, and they could still decide to go QB in the draft.

The bold I actually don't get, given the first part. If they go on a run, they're looking at a mid 20's or worse pick. So not exactly prime QB drafting territory. And in fact, if you look at the 2 seconds they have this year, pretty comparable overall value.

 

I actually like a few of the QBs who could make it to the 2nd round this year, FWIW. Though Tua's injury could throw a wrench in that landscape if enough QB needy teams target the position in Round 1 and push those guys up.

[raw]

Gonna be an interesting offseason. Obviously the 2018 coach of the year and one of the top executives of the year aren't going anywhere.....so the hot take artists on Twitter can stop with that. But I do think they will feel a TON of pressure this offseason. Not necessarily from the fans, or ownership putting them on the proverbial hot seat, but I think they will feel pressure of the window closing.

 

I think the plan right now is to let Pace & Nagy pick a QB together, but if they have another dismal season....I don't know that either would feel very safe going into 2021.

 

It sucks, because Mitch seems like a good kid. He's talented, likable and humble; but I feel like they have to move on from him. While his contract is guaranteed, I think they could potentially trade him or just straight up cut him. Because to have Mitch on the roster, means to be OK with him if he has to play. To be OK with him playing, means you probably don't have a clearly better option. To not have a clearly better option, means you potentially could have another dismal season.

 

I HATE the thought of trading a high pick for a QB and paying said QB, over 20Mil. Foles? Owed big money, would likely require one of those 2nds to the Jags. Not interested. Newton? Owed 21Mil. Wouldn't necessarily cost a 2nd, but who knows if his body can even hold up. Not interested. Alex Smith? Maybe he's cut which would make him more desirable, but again can his body hold up? Not interested.

 

Free agency you have guys that have been benched now or should be like Dalton, Winston, Eli, Keenum? Are any of them guaranteed to be better than Trubisky was in 2018? Don't know if it's worth the money to find out. Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Dak aren't going anywhere.

 

The best options i see are that maybe Mariota takes a 1-year deal to play for Helfrich (if he's still around after this year) and potentially earn a big payday. Teddy Bridgewater is a good long-term option. He's looked good in limited action since his injury, and was a pretty highly regarded prospect before that. Both of these options would potentiallly mean weakening the all around roster that Pace has been building for 4 years, as they'd require a decent amount of money along with likely paying at least some of Trubisky's salary.. They'd stand to lose a lot of talent and don't have the draft picks necessary to replace them right away.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I feel like if Nagy is involved in picking the next attempt at a franchise QB, he'll turn it into some weird sideshow where he comes up with convoluted ways to measure who is the exact opposite of Trubisky in every way.

 

Mariota is the Ian Stewart of QBs. But I'd be fine with that. Anything that doesn't commit resources past 2020 is fine.

[WrigleyField 22]

Gonna be an interesting offseason. Obviously the 2018 coach of the year and one of the top executives of the year aren't going anywhere.....so the hot take artists on Twitter can stop with that. But I do think they will feel a TON of pressure this offseason. Not necessarily from the fans, or ownership putting them on the proverbial hot seat, but I think they will feel pressure of the window closing.

 

I think the plan right now is to let Pace & Nagy pick a QB together, but if they have another dismal season....I don't know that either would feel very safe going into 2021.

 

It sucks, because Mitch seems like a good kid. He's talented, likable and humble; but I feel like they have to move on from him. While his contract is guaranteed, I think they could potentially trade him or just straight up cut him. Because to have Mitch on the roster, means to be OK with him if he has to play. To be OK with him playing, means you probably don't have a clearly better option. To not have a clearly better option, means you potentially could have another dismal season.

 

I HATE the thought of trading a high pick for a QB and paying said QB, over 20Mil. Foles? Owed big money, would likely require one of those 2nds to the Jags. Not interested. Newton? Owed 21Mil. Wouldn't necessarily cost a 2nd, but who knows if his body can even hold up. Not interested. Alex Smith? Maybe he's cut which would make him more desirable, but again can his body hold up? Not interested.

 

Free agency you have guys that have been benched now or should be like Dalton, Winston, Eli, Keenum? Are any of them guaranteed to be better than Trubisky was in 2018? Don't know if it's worth the money to find out. Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Dak aren't going anywhere.

 

The best options i see are that maybe Mariota takes a 1-year deal to play for Helfrich (if he's still around after this year) and potentially earn a big payday. Teddy Bridgewater is a good long-term option. He's looked good in limited action since his injury, and was a pretty highly regarded prospect before that. Both of these options would potentiallly mean weakening the all around roster that Pace has been building for 4 years, as they'd require a decent amount of money along with likely paying at least some of Trubisky's salary.. They'd stand to lose a lot of talent and don't have the draft picks necessary to replace them right away.

I'm not convinced Mariota will cost a lot. I could see him going in the low double digits range, which would be tight, but manageable. OTOH I'm really not convinced on Mariota, either. Definitely don't want to see them give up draft capital to trade for any of the guys listed.

 

Of all those guys listed, I don't think all of them are going to go for big money... someone will be left standing available for Chase Daniel type money or less... who knows which one it will be, and Pace probably won't be in the position where he wants to just wait out the market and not get his top guy.

 

Honestly, while really risky considering that closing window, I think the best bet is to double down on the strategy of cheap QB spending and put every cap resource elsewhere. Get some competition for Mitch, but don't hinder upgrades elsewhere to try and improve the QB room with an expensive vet. Bring in a youngish guy coming out of a rookie or second contract who has some backup experience and has some skills to work with but may still fit in that sub $5m range. Hopefully use one of your seconds on a QB you like, or worst case the 4th round comp pick. Bring in a couple UDFAs. If anyone flashes in the XFL, bring them into the rookie minicamp. Sign Bray to non-guaranteed deal for camp. Post-draft if you don't end up with a 2nd or 4th rounder you REALLY like, bring in whatever vet QB you can at that point (thinking a Fitzpatrick type in that 3-4M range) But basically plan on a 3 QB roster with Mitch + cheap vet competition + 2nd round pick.

 

Spend a chunk of the cap space on a move TE and interior swing OL guy. Spend a pick on a OT. Cut Floyd's non-guaranteed deal and put that back into the FA market for a front 7 upgrade (Clowney as the #1 choice, on a backloaded deal). Do whatever back-oaded contract shenanigans you have to to fit Dix back into the S room on a multi-year deal. You may need to cut some of the waste in the WR room with either Gabriel or Patterson and do your best to fill it on the cheap (Wims. Ridley, your tables are ready). May even need to look at some roster bonus conversions. Looks like Whitehair may have some convertible cap- Massie and Burton look like they do, but those would be riskier conversions since they'll be such prime cut candidates in 2021, and converting cap kills that.

 

So basically ~ 21M in cap after cutting Long. Cut Floyd (13) and Gabriel (4.5) and you're at about 39M.

~5-7M on the QB room

~5-7M on a TE

~2-4M on decent swing lineman?

About 20-21M left for backloading some D deals on a Floyd replacement, retaining/replacing Clinton-Dix, replacing Trevathan (hopefully White Nick continues to flash and signs relatively cheap), the draft class, and low/minimum signings.... again some of the other cap manuevers mentioned will need to come into play. Might have to put some high protection 2nd round tneders their few RFA who are actually good depth guys.

(There are 3 really big cut candidates based on pure cap saving, but I don't think any would be worth it - Robinson, Fuller, Amukamara, all would save nearly 8-10M each. Shaheen at 1.2M is an easy, albeit small savings cut. Plow that right back into a low-end blocking TE as a 1:1 trade-off probably).

With all the backloaded deals mentioned, 2021 will be big reset with some more obvious dead weight contracts available to cut or not re-sign, but will need to see production from some of the younger guys currently on the roster who can bridge into 2022/23. Also the silver lining with a crappy Mitch, and if you don't spend big on a averag-ish QB like Bridgewater, you can keep on keeping the QB room pretty cheap.

 

Draft;

2nd ; QB (Hurts or Eason, but I could see them both move up unfortunately)

2nd ; OT or CB (eventual Amukamara/Fuller replacements needed)

4th ; OT or CB - possible QB if no 2nd round pick

5th ; OL, S, LB, RB depth

5th* ; OL, S, LB, RB depth

5th/6th** ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth

6th; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth

7th ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth

 

*Possible conditional pick from Mack trade, unconfirmed

**Conditional pick for Howard, details unknown

 

Could possibly get another comp pick for 2021 depending on how that FA group works out (Trevathan, Clinton-Dix, Bush, Lynch, Daniel, Black Nick, White Nick all could be comp pick losses). Obviously they'll keep a few, plus sign some FA who offset those, but they could get one if they don't spread the limited money around too much and instead go for one or two big signings and then fill in the rest with guys who don't offset the comp formula. I think 2021 they'll just be down a late pick for Pinerio, but otherwise be intact with picks.

[WrigleyField 22]

I feel like if Nagy is involved in picking the next attempt at a franchise QB, he'll turn it into some weird sideshow where he comes up with convoluted ways to measure who is the exact opposite of Trubisky in every way.

They'll try to find the Mahomes-iest pick they can, but just end up with some Air Raid guy with a lots a confidence but 1/3 the arm talent.

[gflore34]

It's got to a new QB in 2020, with Mitch as the backup, 3rd string whatever. Because what if Nagy, or someone else, finally figures out how to utilize Mitch' strengths, the Bears have a good 2020, make the playoffs. etc......

 

what?

I think he's worried if the Bears turn it around with Mitch they'll give him a dumb extension.

 

Exactly, when I re-read it didn't make sense to me either, should he show signs of moderate improvement in 2020, do not want the Bears fooled into giving him a financially crippling extension.